Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +106
I'll take the value here with the Angels as an underdog to the Kansas City Royals Thursday. Zach Greinke continues to get way too much respect from the odds makers fresh off his Cy Young-winning 2009 campaign. But Greinke has been far from a Cy Young-caliber starter this season, as the Royals are just 2-9 in Greinke's 11 starts this year. Greinke is 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA in home starts this season, and 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The Angels send Ace Jered Weaver to the mound tonight, who is 4-2 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 2010. Weaver has 74 strikeouts in 68.2 innings and he continues getting better with each season. Greinke is just 1-3 with a 4.09 ERA in 5 career starts vs. Los Angeles, and the Royals are 1-4 in those 5 outings.
The Angels are 14-4 vs. Kansas City over the last 3 seasons, including 10-3 in 13 road meetings during this span. Greinke is just 1-8 against the money line at home when the total is 7.5 or less over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 58-32 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, Los Angeles is 38-16 against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. Under head coach Mike Scioscia, this team rarely has letdowns against these bad teams and certainly not against the Royals. Great value here. Take the Angels Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox +107
After back-to-back home losses to the Rangers, look for the White Sox to avoid the sweep tonight. Under manager Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox are an impressive 73-38 in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses against an opponent. In addition, the White Sox are 28-11 when revenging 2 straight losses vs. an opponent as a home favorite under manager Guillen. Also, the Sox are 30-11 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. This team has also been money as a small home dog as it is 21-8 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons. We'll take Chicago in this revenge spot.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins +122
After back-to-back defeats, look for the Twins to bounce back in Seattle tonight. It has been a rough start to the season for the M's Hernandez. Since winning his first 4 starts, the M's have dropped each of his last 7. And he has had his most struggles at home where he is carrying an uncharacteristic 4.75 ERA. In addition, the Mariners are a poor 20-42 in their last 62 game 4's of a series. The Twins' Pavano has been solid on the road (3.81 ERA) and great in his night starts (2.05 ERA). Plus, he has been a solid road dog when you consider that the Twins are 4-1 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. Plus, Pavano is 12-5 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the Twins showing solid value in Seattle tonight.
Dennis Macklin
Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
Play: Washington Nationals
JD Martin and Brian Moehler both made their 2010 debuts in their last starts but thats where any similarity ends. The Nats Martin lost his start 4-2 to the Padres allowing just one earned run on only four hits in six and a tick innings of work. Houston blew the dust of Brian "Fuzz" Moehler who was promptly spanked by the Reds for eight earned runs on ten hits while getting just eight outs. Three of the ten hits were dingers and Fuzzy rocks a 26.97 ERA into his second start tonight. The Nasty Nats have been resilient off a loss going 17-9 and face an 11-19 home team giving less than a quarter. If starters reprise last weeks form, Washington is your winner before dinner.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington –1 +1.10 over HOUSTON
Note the 2:00 PM EST start. We could lay 1½-runs and take back 40 cents but by laying a run we can’t lose should the Nats pull this one out. The Astros have scored 13 runs over the past two games and they have to be feeling good but they’re likely going to have to score a bunch more to pull this one out. Brian Moehler replaced injured Bud Norris in the starting rotation last week, and replaced him poorly at Cinci, getting just eight outs while allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits and three bombs. His last appearance as a reliever was also a disaster, as he allowed three earned runs but never recorded an out. He has allowed more walks than strikeouts this year and he virtually has no shot of success. Moehler has a WHIP of 1.86, and ERA of 7.29 and a BAA of 3.64 and it’s not just a “bad run” either. Moehler is a 38-year-old, 13-year vet that has been brutally awful for eight years now. so yeah, he is on a bad run, an eight year bad run and counting. Last season he allowed 187 hits in 154 IP. J.D. Martin made his 2010 MLB debut at San Diego last week and pitched six innings and gave up just one run while striking out five batters and walking none. Pitching in San Diego is not a reliable indicator of anything but this is not about backing Martin. It’s all about playing against Moehler. Play: Washington –1 +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +2.19 over FLORIDA
The Brewers are very worthy of a wager here with a tag like this on them. First, the Brew Crew can score and a team that can score is a team that can win. Milwaukee is in the top three in many key offensive stats that include homeruns, runs scored, doubles and slugging percentage. Chris Capuano will pitch in his first game in the majors since 2007. Two Tommy John surgeries has kept Capuano out of baseball and he replaces Manny Parra in the starting rotation for now. In four rehab starts at AAA-Nashville, Capuano recorded 16 Ks and just four walks in 25 innings. He allowed just 21 hits in 25 frames and his ERA in was 1.81. Capuano is a former 18-game winner and his return will have his teammates a little extra juiced to give him some support. We’re starting to see pitchers that come back from TJ surgery stronger and better than ever. There’s a good reason the Fish are favored by so much and it’s because of Josh Johnson. Johnson is in the midst of an outstanding season and has put together great game after great game. Thing is, Johnson is coming off a 121-pitch effort against Philly, he’s not allowed a run in three games and no pitcher can continue at that rate. A letdown game is forthcoming soon and this price influences the choice. Play: Milwaukee +2.19 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.26 over LOS ANGELES
It’s never a bad idea to play on a hot team and the Braves are sizzling right now. They’re getting clutch hits, they’re scoring runs and they just swept the Phillies. In other words, they’re feeling it and can’t wait to get back to the park. Kris Medlen throws strikes and doesn’t walk many at all. He’s walked just nine batters in 41 IP while striking out 32. He’s a reliever that’s filling in for Jair Jurrjens and that’s always risky but this one is more about playing on the red-hot Braves than it is in backing Medlen. Still, his numbers are good and the Dodgers are seeing BB’s right now. They’re coming off back-to-back 1-0 wins over the D-Backs. Scoring two runs in two games against that staff should be a concern for any offense. Over it’s last nine games (.192 team batting average) the Dodgers have been shutout twice by the Cubs and been held to one run twice by the Snakes. They’ve scored two runs over the past 24 innings. Hiroki Kuroda doesn't have overpowering stuff but does have a good ground ball rate. He allows hits and he allows runs and that bodes well here for the Braves who have scored 51 times over the past eight games. Without doubt, the value here is on the visitor. Play: Atlanta +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.62 over L.A. LAKERS
For the reasons listed below in the game one write-up, we’re playing the Celtics in the series. Play Boston +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +2.01/+5½ over L.A. LAKERS
The first thing to note here is that the Celtics have come out strong in every series thus far and it’s not like they were playing a low seed. They beat the Heat with relative ease in game one and went on to blow away Miami. They then went on the road to Cleveland and Orlando in the next two series and won both of those games. They Celtics have smoked two what were considered serious threats to win it all and Miami is dangerous because of D-Wade. Nobody has been able to stop them and that’s because this team is so experienced and have made all the right adjustments on guys like LeBron James and Dwight Howard. It’s also interesting to hear what Phil Jackson had to say about the Celtics beating the Magic. Said Jackson, “ They hacked Howard all series and seldom was a foul called. We’re not that type of team, we’re not a smack’em down club; it’s not our style”. Before the series even starts, Jackson is already playing mind games and has put notice to the refs with that statement. Phil Jackson does not do that unless he has concerns and a ton of respect for the opposition. He didn’t say a word before the Jazz series but he did utter some comments before the series with the Thunder. In other words, he had no respect for the Jazz but he has lots of things to worry about against the Celtics. The Lakers lack depth and they lack a true point-guard. The Celtics lack nothing. They’re so deep, they have great shooters and you can’t focus on one guy because any one of five or six guys can hurt them. The Lakers strategy is one that is not rocket science. If Kobe isn’t hitting then they’ll dish it off to Gasol inside. The Lakers only advantage here is home court and size and that’s something for sure. However, the C’s are too good to ignore and one has to trust that they’ll win one of the first two games. If they lose here we’ll come right back on them in game 2. Play: Boston +2.01 (Risking 1 unit). Play Boston +5½ (Risking 1.04 units to win 1).
Glenn McGrew
Twins at Mariners
First place Minnesota is a .500 road team and a long way from home in this series. They looked sluggish the last two nights in 7-1 and 2-1 losses here. The bats won’t get a reprieve tonight against ace Felix Hernandez, who has a 2.57 ERA his last three starts. Minnesota righty Carl Pavano looks out of gas already, with a 5.68 ERA his last three (1-2 record) making this is a solid spot for the home team. Play the Seattle Mariners.
William Kidd
Milwaukee at Florida
Pick: Florida
We will make this short and sweet for you as we have a game that will win and win BIG! The Brewers are 5-21 in Capuanos last 26 road starts and the Brewers are 0-11 in Capuanos last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Also, the Marlins are 23-4 in Johnsons last 27 starts with 4 days of rest. To make matters worse for Milwaukee the Brewers are 7-22 in the last 29 meetings in Florida.
DAVID CHAN
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
Take the Rays, opposing the Rangers’ CJ Wilson.
The Rays are very effective against southpaw starters: so far this season Tampa is 17-6 when digging in against lefties. They’ll get to CJ Wilson here as they’ve gotten to so many before him.
What about Wilson in particular? We successfully faded Wilson in a free selection last weekend and we’re opposing him here again for roughly the same reasons: moved to the rotation in 2010, he’s approaching last season’s innings total already, and he appears to be weakening as the season moves forward. He coughed up 5 ER with a 3/2 K/BB ratio in that last start against the Twins, and his K rate is slowly eroding. As a reliever last year he fanned 84 in 74 IP; this year he’s got 47 K in 64.2 IP. And that includes 9 K in the season opener. The slide continues.
Info Plays
3* on Braves/Dodgers OVER 8
Reasons this game goes OVER:
1.) The Braves are 13-3 to the OVER in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 23-12 to the OVER in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
2.) There is serious value on the OVER in this game due to the recent pitching efforts from both the Braves and Dodgers. But Kris Medlen and Hiroki Kuroda are being treated like two of the best starters in the league with this Total Set, and that couldn't be further from the truth. Bet the OVER 8 runs.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -1.5 -104
I don't see the Brew Crew getting much of anything against Josh Johnson tonight. The big fella is 4-1 (6-1 on the money line) at home this season with an ERA of 1.53 and a WHIP Of 0.915. And over his last 3 starts, he's carrying an ERA of 0.00. Chris Capuano is getting his first start since 2007. That's a long time removed from this level of baseball. With the Fish getting their sticks going in this series, I expect it to be a rough outing for Cap in his first game back. We'll take the Marlins on the run line.