Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday June, 7

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants rebounded from their loss on Tuesday against the Padres with a 6-5 win last night to keep pace with the Dodgers as they are now four games back in the National League West. San Francisco is 8-2 over its last 10 games as it has made up four games over this stretch as it was able to take advantage of the recent Dodgers skid. Despite the struggles of Tim Lincecum, the Giants pitching remains the strength as their 3.33 team ERA is fourth best in all of baseball. San Diego has been able to win here and there but this is a bad team that has found losing very contagious. The Padres have followed a win with a loss 13 times this season and of those, they have lost next game 11 times. The offense remains a huge liability as San Diego is hitting just .225 which is second lowest in the National League while its .212 average at home is tied for the worst in the league. Going back to last season, the Padres are 19-50 in their last 69 games as underdogs. Matt Cain gets the ball for San Francisco and he is again having an outstanding season. He is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 11 starts with the Giants going 8-3 in those games. Cain has tossed 11 quality outings this season including three of his last four on the road and Petco Park has been one of his favorite stops as he has a 2.81 ERA in 13 career starts there. This includes five straight quality starts there and overall against the Padres, he has a 2.70 ERA in his last four starts against San Diego. Maybe a chance of atmosphere can help Jason Marquis but don't count on it. He was released by the Twins 10 days ago following a dreadful start as he posted an 8.47 ERA in seven games. Going back to last season, he has an 8.74 ERA in his last 10 starts which included his three games in Arizona after coming over from Washington. He looked good in his minor league start after coming over from Minnesota but that doesn't mean a whole lot. He allowed seven runs in four innings in his last start against the Giants last season.

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates are the plays against team here tonight as they are 5-31 on the roads if they won each of their starters last 2 starts and that starter is pitching with less than 1 week of rest. The Pirates are hitting just .223 this season and even worse vs right handers. The Reds have M, Leake on the mound and he has been much improved of late going 3-0 with a 2.41 era over his last 3 starts. The Reds will follow him up with one of the best bullpens in the league as they have a home bullpen era in the low twos. The Pirates have Correia going and he has been dreadful in his last 2 starts vs the Reds allowing 11 runs in 13 innings and a whopping 5 home runs. With the Reds 3-0 in home rubber games this season we will back them tonight.

Ben Burns

Orioles @ Red Sox
PICK: Under 9.5

After a high-scoring (8-6) series opener on Tuesday, yesterday's game resulted in a pitcher's duel. Baltimore finished on top for the second straight day, this time winning 2-1. Given the current form of the starters, I won't be surprised if this evening's contest also proves a little lower-scoring than many will be expecting.

In addition to being one of this season's most profitable "under" pitchers, Matusz has been excellent lately. In his last start, he limited Tampa to just two hits and one run, through 7 1/3 innings. He had seven K's and won by a score of 2-1. That brought the "under" to 3-0 his last three starts. During that stretch, Matusz has an outstanding 2.29 ERA and 0.916 WHIP, striking out 21 in slightly less than 20 innings of work.

For the season, the "under" is now a lucrative 9-2 when Matusz has taken the mound, including 4-1 on the road. He was extremely sharp in this season's lone start vs. Boston. In that 5/22 outing, Matusz allowed only two hits through 6 1/3 innings, striking out nine and walking one. Baltimore won 4-1.

Despite a 5-2 record, Buchholz does NOT have good numbers. His ERA is 6.58 and his WHIP is 1.725. Not surprisingly, given his winning record and high ERA, the majority of his starts have finished above the total. However, Buchholz shown real signs of finally turning it around lately; each of his last two starts have also fallen below the total.

Two starts ago, Buchholz held Tampa to two runs through seven complete innings. Last time out, he limited the Jays to two runs through eight complete. During those 15 innings, Buchholz had 13 K's while walking only three. Consider the Under 9.5.

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The Dodgers and Phillies conclude a four-game series when Aaron Harang matches serves with Cole Hamels Thursday afternoon in Philadelphia. Hamels toes the slab knowing he is 7-2 in his career team starts against Los Angeles, including 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in this park. With Hamels in strong KW form with 31 strikeouts and 7 walks in his last four starts, look for the Phils to improve to 7-0 on Thursday this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Sean Murphy

Atlanta @ Miami
PICK: Miami

Sean has been cashing in on the diamond all season long, and he's turned it up a notch lately, banking +$11,740 for his clients over his L40 MLB plays! He's back at it with THREE big winners on Thursday, and the first goes EARLY this afternoon. Pay only AFTER you profit!

The Braves will look to complete the series sweep in Miami on Thursday night, but I think they're going to be in tough trying to do so.

It's not as if the Marlins came into this series playing poorly. In fact, they had won seven of their last nine games. Now they've dropped two in a row, but it's worth noting that they haven't lost three in a row since suffering through a six-game skid from April 20th to 27th.

By contrast, the Braves haven't won three games in a row since sweeping the Cardinals from May 11th to 13th.

Atlanta will send struggling lefty Mike Minor to the hill on Thursday. He's been the weak link in the Braves rotation this season, going 2-4 with an ugly 6.98 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. The road hasn't been kind, as he's gone 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

Note that Minor has faced the Marlins four times in his career, with Miami winning three of those games.

The Marlins will counter with a left-hander of their own in Mark Buehrle. He hasn't been all that sharp this season, but he has done enough to keep his team in the game on most occasions, and has certainly looked more comfortable pitching here at home, where he's 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Buehrle was a little shaky in his lone previous start against the Braves this season, allowing four earned runs over six innings, but the Marlins still won the game by an 8-4 score.

The Fish entered this series with a two-game cushion over the Braves in the N.L. East, but that has since disappeared. This is a major step-up game for Ozzie Guillen's club, and I believe the favorite price-tag is warranted.

Freddy Wills

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are 5-2 in Brian Matusz's 7 starts vs. the Red Sox over his career and he's really only had one bad start over those 7 starts which is pretty remarkable the way the Red Sox have been able to hit over the years. Matusz hasn't gotten lucky either as a closer look shows that in 110 AB the Red Sox hitters post just a .236 average and a .676 OPS. Matusz has been decent on the road and during day games and he's backed by a team that has one of the best bullpens in baseball. In fact their bullpen is over 2.5 runs better on the road than the Red Sox is at home at a mark of 1.62 to 4.27. It also helps when the Orioles have had success against the Red Sox scheduled starter Clay Bucholz.

Bucholz has struggled this year posting a 6.38 ERA at home and a 7.81 ERA during his day starts. The Orioles in 129 AB have .807 OPS against him and that's enough reason for me to back the Orioles here at a nice price of +135. Bucholz has struggled with his control along with giving up too many HR. The Orioles are 3rd in HR this season and have beaten up Bucholz pretty bad over his last three starts as Bucholz has posted a 8.04 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP. Boston is now 17-35 in their last 52 vs. the AL East and I'm still not sold on them to this point.

Notable Hot Starters:
R.A. Dickey (3-0, 0.69 WHIP, 0.39 ERA)
Brandon McCarthy (3-0, 1.36 whip, 2.95 ERA)
David Price (1-2, 1.22 WHIP, 0.84 ERA)
Matt Cain (3-0, 1.20 WHIP, 2.49 ERA)
J.A. Happ (1-2, 1.29 WHIP, 2.79 ERA)
Mike Leake (3-0, 1.12 WHIP, 2.41 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Matt Garza has posted an 0-3 record with a 1.50 WHIP and a 9.00 ERA, but Garza posts a 2.48 ERA this year during his day starts and the Brewers have 110 AB and have struggled vs. Garza with just a .676 OPS. While Randy Wolf has a 5.16 ERA during the day and the Cubs post an .814 OPS against Wolf.

Notable Cold Starters:
Derek Lowe (1-2, 1.53 WHIP, 6.60 ERA)
Matt Minor (0-3, 1.66 WHIP, 8.04 ERA)
Henderson Alvarez (0-3, 1.76 WHIP, 7.41 ERA)

Jim Feist

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres
Pick: San Francisco Giants

San Francisco has ace Matt Cain on the mound, with a 6-2 record and a 2.62 ERA. He's been sizzling of late, with a 3-0 record and a 2.49 ERA his last three starts. The Giants are 35-17 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and face one of the worst offenses in baseball. San Diego is stuck with wild man Edinson Volquez, who has walked 39 in 71 innings...and he's getting worse, with 12 walks in his last three starts (17+ innings). And liftime he has a 6.63 ERA against San Francisco. Play the Giants!

Dave Cokin

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
Pick: New York Mets

Big edge on the mound for the Mets with Dickey on a roll and Wang not sharp for the Nationals. The number has accordingly been adjusted, but this still looks like an okay spot for the Mets.

SPORTS WAGERS

BOSTON +115 over Miami

You think Miami and specifically LeBron James aren’t coming into this game 6 scared? Up 2-0 and seemingly on their way to an easy road to the NBA Finals, the Heat have dropped three in a row to the Celtics and now have to play this one on the parquet floor in Boston, where Miami has lost 15 of its past 16 trips here and seven of eight since Miami’s ‘Big Three’ banded together. While LeBron James is a great player, he still hasn’t proven to have the mettle of what champions are made of. The Larry Bird’s, Michael Jordan’s or Kobe Bryant’s are greats that wanted the ball when it counted most. LeBron doesn’t seem to want the rock and is afraid to shoot when he does. In terms of pressure, it doesn’t get greater than this and if past performance is any indication of what to expect, than James and the Heat are in trouble. The Celtics know how to beat this team and they know how to finish off a team when it counts most. Fear of fading the Heat and misguided perceptions have this one priced incorrectly. Play: Boston +115 (Risking 2 units).

CINCINNATI -1½ +135 over Pittsburgh

Mike Leake fought through both on-the-field and off-the-field adversity in 2011, ranging from a shoplifting charge to an awful six-start run at the beginning of 2011 that landed him in the minors. After another shaky start this season, Leake has turned things around with some impressive numbers recently that have us paying attention. His 4.95 ERA is 1½-runs higher than his .3.45 xERA over the past month. He has outstanding control to go along with a heavy groundball bias profile and the Reds have won his last four starts, with Leake allowing just one earned run in three of them. There is real potential for a significant step forward for Leake and against Kevin Correia and the light hitting Pirates, this is an opportunity to seize. Correia is 31-years-old and has spent a good portion of his career in the minors. He has a measly 20 K’s in 58 innings with 19 walks issued. He pitches to contact and at this park, against a team in which current batters have 37 hits in 137 AB’s against him with eight jacks (.887 OPS), Correia’s chances for success are limited. He’s always had HR issues and he comes into this HR park having surrendered four bombs in his last 17.1 innings and that suggests he could be pitching tentatively here. On paper, it doesn’t look like a pitching mismatch but in reality, it is. Play: Cincinnati -1½ +135 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Heat / Celtics Over 179

After the Miami Heat get to this series, even without Chris Bosh nobody, and I mean nobody picked the Celts to have a serious chance to win the Eastern Title. Well they haven't won it yet, and by our accounts Chris Bosh will play as much as he can tonight at 8:30 PM EST. Boston has gone from being described as old and soon to be be broken up (Big Three), to veteran and one win from the promised land and the NBA Finals. Real question is can the Heat respond to this pressure as a TEAM. The body language on Tuesday wasn't what I would have liked to see, and this is the season for Miami and possibly their Coach's (Spoelstra) job on the line. These Celtics believe, are close knit and stay positive with each other, and more importantly trust Doc Rivers and are at HOME. Talk about no respect, up 3-2 in series, at home, and a 1.5 point doggie! The Celtics found one thing out, and that is that they must score 90+ to win vs. the Heat. Over the total of 179

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is the Over in tonight's Eastern Conference Finals.

Possible elimination game this evening for Miami, so look for them to pull out all stops as they look to get back home for a 7th game this Saturday night.

After an Under in Game One of this series, each of the last four games contested between the teams have cleared the total. That makes seven of the past ten series meetings having eclipsed the total, and I see no reason to buck that trend tonight in Game Six.

The baskets have been easy to come by, and Miami has now been Over the total this postseason in seven of their last eight playoff affairs. Boston meanwhile has cleared the total in seven of their last ten postseason games.

Go with the Over to be a winner in Game Six tonight.

2♦ OVER

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Chicago White Sox on the run line against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The White Sox start Jake Peavy, who has a 6-1 record with a 3.05 ERA. His WHIP is an outstanding 0.926. He is averaging going at least seven innings, so he is giving the White Sox quality starts and saving the bullpen.

The Blue Jays are starting Henderson Alvarez, who is 3-5 with a 3.75 ERA. But he has struggled in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA.

At home, the White Sox are averaging 5.3 runs a game, while the Blue Jays average 4.5 runs a game on the road.

The White Sox are home and have the edge in both hitting and pitching.

Take the White Sox.

2♦ WHITE SOX -1.5

Tony George

Miami Marlins -135

After Dropping 2 straight at home to the Braves, I do not expect Miami to lose 3 straight facing a pitcher with a season long 6.58 ERA tonight at home. Mark Buehrle takes the hill at home tonight, a tough southpaw with an ERA under 4 this season and look for the bats of the Marlins to heat up and avoid a 3rd straight home loss to the Braves. Run support for the fish will there tonight.

Steve Janus

Miami Heat -1.5

Even though the Miami Heat were unable to hold serve at home in Game 5, I believe they are still the better team in this series, especially now that Chris Bosh is back. With the season on the line, I will take my chances on LeBron James and Dwayne Wade to carry the Heat to victory tonight. James has been incredible all postseason, and I look for him to completely take over this game.

Bosh scored 9 points and grabbed seven rebounds in just 14 minutes, and I thought he needed to play more down the stretch. I expect that to be the case tonight. There's no reason to hold Bosh back in this one. Not only will he help provide a spark offensively, but he can make things harder on Kevin Garnett.

I have a feeling we will see a similar start to last night's Spurs/Thunder game, where San Antonio came out and jumped all over Oklahoma City at home. While the Thunder were able to battle back for the win, I don't think the Celtics have enough offensive firepower.

I get the feeling the Heat take a lot of things fort granted on the basketball court. With their backs against the wall, I expect to see maximum effort getting back on defense and blocking out. Two things they can struggle to do on a consistent basis.