John Ryan
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
5* graded play on the Washington Nationals as they take on the Mets and R.A. Dickey set to start at 1:05 PM ET. Dickey has had a great season to date, but his recent and remarkable three game stint is just not sustainable. His life and all of the tremendous adversity and hideous childhood he has overcome are inspiring to all. However, at 9-2 and being a knuckleballer for the Mets makes him a candidate to fade in his next start this afternoon (Wednesday) against the Washington Nationals set to start at 1:05 PM ET. The line for this game opened with the Mets installed as -122 favorite and the line has climbed modestly to -128. This clearly reflects the fact that the public bettor knows Dickey is 8-2 and has pitched well. What, the public doesn?t know, is that he is vulnerable to a sub-par start in this road game. Here is a supporting system for this play that has gone 5-14 for 71.4% winners and has made 31 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games and facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 0.800 over his last three starts. Dickey has posted a 0.39 ERA and a 0.686 WHIP, walking just one batter, while striking out 30 in 23 ⅓ innings of work. This excellent performance does not continue even with the best Cy Young award winners and I strongly believe Washington will get to him this afternoon and win the game.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Miami Over 179: Well I have been so wrong my last 3 plays in this series as I have take the Heat in each one. I expected a tired Boston bunch to wilt vs the younger Heat, but Boston's heart has shone through and it cost me. Tonight I will not touch the side at all, but I will look to the Total. The first game put up just 172 points, but since then 184 points or more have been scored in each game. Both teams have been playing a more of an uptempo game and it has resulted in more points. Yes we have had 2 OT's, but who's to say that this one won't go the same rout. No matter who wins I do expect a tight game and that does lead to a potential OT game. Also, Miami is facing elimination so you can expect them to throw everything at the Celtics, plus if they are down late you can expect a ton of fouls and that means late points from FT's. Now Boston doesn't want to go back to Miami for a game 7, so if they are just as desperate in this one as well and if they are down you can expect a lot of fouling from them as well. This should be a tight game with at least 184 points scored once again.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ LA Dodgers Under 7.5: The Phils need a win in the worst way and the way their offense is going of late they really need a shutdown game from their starter and should get it today with Hamels on the mound. Cole has a solid 2.84 ERA on the year and a 3.07 ERA at home, but more importantly are his numbers vs the Dodgers of late. Cole has a 1.18 ERA in his last 5 regular season starts vs the Dodgers and that includes not allowing a run in his last 2 starts vs them (17 innings of work). As I said the Phils will need a big game from him as they have been struggling again offensively, hitting just .218 and scoring just 2.8 rpg in their last 5 games. The Phils have also scored just 3.5 rpg on their own field this year. Pitching has been very good for the Dodgers of late an it should continue today with Aaron Harang on the mound. For the most part Aaron has done well for the Dodgers, with a 3.90 ERA But he really seems to be settling in as he has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. His games have been a bit high scoring (8.91 rpg), that is thanks to good run support and I don't expect that here vs Hamels. Both pens come in hot as well as the Dodgers have a pen ERA of 1.35 in their last 5 games, while Philly has an 0.60 pen ERA in their last 5 games. I expect a Pitchers duel in game 4 of this series here.
Chicago/ Milwaukee Over 7.5: Matt Garza has always been a really good pitcher... when he pitches at home. But as seen in his last 3 starts (all on the road) we see that he struggles on the road. In 4 home starts this year Matt has a 1.91 ERA, but in 6 road starts he has a 6.10 ERA, including a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 on the road. Matt's starts have averaged 9.5 rpg overall, while his road starts have averaged 10 rpg. He does have a 2.88 ERA in 5 starts vs the Brewers, but 3 of those starts were at home and he has a 5.06 ERA in his 2 road starts vs them. The Brewers have struggled to hit some of late, but they have still averaged 4 rpg in their last 5 games and they average 4.97 rpg at home on the year. Randy Wolf has not pitched well at all this year, with an overall ERA of 6.05, an ERA of 5.16 in day starts and a 4.50 ERA at home. Higames have been high scoring this year as 10.91 rpg have been scored in his starts overall, 11 rpg have been scored in his home starts and 12.43 rpg have been scored in his night starts. Now i know that the OU line is 7.5, but still in each one of his starts at least 7 runs have been scored, so we just need to find one extra run in this one. I don't expect us to be searching for that run at the end of this one, as this game should reach at least 9 runs with ease.
MIAMI -132 over Atlanta: Huge game for Miami here as they just don't want to get swept at home. The Fish have put up just 1 ruin in the first 2 games of the series, but that should change tonight as they will be facing a struggling starter. Mike Minor has struggled all year for Atlanta, with a 2--4 mark and a 6.98 ERA overall. Now as bad as that is, he is even worse in his last 7 starts, going 0-3 with a 9.08 ERA over that stretch, plus mike is 0-1 with a 7.65 ERA vs the fish in 4 career starts. That includes an earlier start vs them this year, in which he allowed 6 ER's in just 4.2 innings of work. Oh yeah, Miami should be able to tag him for some runs in this one. On the other side mark Buerhle gets the ball for Miami and he has pitched Ok this year with a 5-5 record and a 3.53 ERA overall. Mark is 4-1 in his last 6 starts and he is 3-1 with a solid 3.38 ERA at home this year. Mike has struggled with the Fish, but Mark has gone 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Braves. Really a mismatch on the mound in this one and with Miami looking to avoid getting swept at home, I will look for them to bouncback with a strong win toinight.
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays +130
After losing the first two games of this series to fall behind the New York Yankees by a half-game in the AL East standings, I'm siding with the Tampa Bay Rays to win Game 3 and salvage the series. The Rays are showing great value in this one with their best starter on the mound.
David Price is the clear ace of this rotation. He has gone 7-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.208 WHIP through 11 starts this season. Price has been untouchable of late, posting a 0.84 ERA over his last three starts while allowing just 2 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings.
Tampa has struggled of late, but this is clearly a resilient team considering the Rays are 11-1 after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. They are also 35-15 in Price's last 50 starts vs. AL East opponents. The Yankees are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings when Sabathia faces Price. Bet Tampa Bay Thursday.
Lenny Del Genio
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
As you might know by now, we will gladly step in and go against the overpriced Red Sox any chance we can get. Such is the case this evening as they host a Baltimore Orioles team that has dominated them in head to head play this season, yet again comes in as a nice underdog. We cashed the O's in Tuesday's series opener (at +152!) and then won again in a similar price range last night (2-1) to improve to a perfect 5-0 this season at Fenway Park and 6-2 overall vs. Boston. Baltimore is now an outstanding 27-20 as a dog this season, including 17-11 on the road. Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz has been lousy this season (6.58 ERA in 11 starts) while Orioles starter Brian Matusz is coming off a solid showing at Tampa Bay and has a 2.25 ERA in his L3 starts. Boston is 2-8 when seeking revenge for BB losses as a favorite of -150 or higher. Go against the overpriced home team.
Bryan Power
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
New York has taken the first two games of this series in pretty dominating fashion, a 7-0 win in the series opener followed by last night's 4-1 victory. Tampa Bay actually failed to score a single run in this series until the top of the ninth last night. As a result, the Yankees have now moved past the Rays in the crowded American League East by one half game and now trail first place Baltimore (yes, Baltimore!) by one-half game. On paper, it's a stupendous pitching matchup for Thursday's series finale with CC Sabathia opposing David Price in a battle of staff aces. I look for the Yankees to complete the sweep.
This is not the first time Sabathia has opposed Price this season. On May 10th, CC prevailed 5-3, allowing two unearned runs over eight innings while striking out 10 Rays. Price could not even come close to matching the NY lefty, allowing all five runs (on 11 hits) in seven innings of work. While Price has been good of late, he is not nearly as strong on the road where his ERA is 4.00 in six starts (Rays are 3-3 in those games).
A batlle of lefties should also mean success for the home team here as the Yankees are 10-6 vs. southpaws (5.6 rpg) while Tampa Bay is 8-12 (3.8 rpg).
Otto Sports
Miami Over 4 Team Total
Adding to our previous blog post that touched on Miami’s success against left-handed pitching: The Marlins bats have been held down in two consecutive games but we’ll call for them to come alive here tonight against Mike Minor. The Braves left hander has been dreadful this season and has allowed at least four runs in six consecutive trips to the mound. He features a 7.27 ERA away from home and despite the spacious dimensions of this new park in Miami this is playing like a hitters field. As we saw a couple of weeks ago the Marlins match up well against Minor; they had nine base runners on in less than five innings against him, scoring six runs before he was yanked.
That shouldn’t be a surprise as Miami has dominated the left handers of late. They’ve won nine straight against left handed starters, defeating Cole Hamels, Madison Bumgarner, Jamie Moyer, Mike Minor, Jon Niese, Johan Santana, Wandy Rodriguez, Clayton Richard and Barry Zito. That’s a pretty strong list! In home games in particular the Marlins have scored at least five runs in seven of their eight games against a southpaw starter, another strong indicator for tonight’s bet.
MLB Predictions
Milwaukee Brewers -120
These two teams have split the first two games of this series. That moves Chicago to 19-37 and just 7-22 on the road, while the Brewers are 25-31 and 13-16 at home. Over his last 3 starts Garza has allowed 7, 5, and 2 earned runs against - allowing 17 hits in 14 innings of work. Randy Wolf has allowed 3, 2, and 6 earned runs in his last three starts. He has pitched much better at home this season, while Garza has pitched much worse on the road. The Cubs are 0-5 in Garza's last 5 starts, and while the Brewers are 0-4 in Wolf's last 4 starts they are 13-3 in his last 16 home starts vs a team with a losing record. Take the Brewers this afternoon.
Hollywood Sports
Cardinals at Astros
Prediction: Under
The Under is 16-4-1 in the Astros last 21 games when the Total was set in the 7-8.5 range. Houston (24-32) averages only 4.30 runs per game against right-handed starting pitchers which is an ominous sign when now facing the Cardinals' Lance Lynn who is enjoying a dominant season. Lynn owns an 8-2 record with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season. The right-hander also will be very focused for this contest as he looks to redeem himself from a subpar effort where he only pitched 4 2/3 innings in New York against the Mets where he allowed three runs (two earned). Starting pitchers that fail to complete five official innings of work tend to rebound with sharper efforts in their next outing. Lynn has thrived on the road for St. Louis (29-28) where he enjoys a 2.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP which are both better numbers than his 3.38 ERA and his 1.17 WHIP when at home. Lynn should fare well against an Astros team that has played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston counters with J.A. Happ who is 4-5 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP this season. Happ has been better at home in Minutemaid Park where he sports a 3.83 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .264 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 5.24 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .297 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Astros have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with Happ on the hill. Houston has also played 4 straight games Under the Total with Happ pitching as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. These are plenty of pitcher metrics as well as complementary team trends to suspect that the Astros proclivity to play games Under the Total with the number at 8.5/8 should continue tonight. Take the Under while listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and J.A. Happ.
Black Widow
Chicago White Sox -137
Jake Peavy has been nothing short of sensational this season for the Chicago White Sox. He has finally returned to his old self, and I fully expect him to help the White Sox salvage Game 3 of this series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Peavy is 6-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.926 WHIP while striking out 68 batters in 76 2/3 innings over 11 starts in 2012. He'll be up against Henderson Alvarez, who is 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in his last three starts. I look for these red-hot Chicago hitters to get after him tonight. The White Sox are 14-4 in their last 18 games overall, scoring six or more runs in 11 of those contests. The Blue Jays are 8-20 in their last 28 games as a road underdog. The White Sox are 6-1 in Peavy's last 7 starts as a favorite. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in Alvarez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Chicago on the Money Line.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -142
Boston is due against the Orioles. We're talking about a club that has won 42 of its last 61 home games in the series. The O's have won the first two games of this series but are still just 3-7 in their last 10. They are also 0-6 in their last 6 game 3's of a series. Baltimore's Matusz still can't be trusted on the road as the O's are 3-8 in his last 11 road starts. The Red Sox are 7-3 in Buchholz's last 10 home starts and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Boston.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays +130
The Rays are showing value at this price with ace David Price on the bump. He has dominated the Yankees in head-to-heads with CC Sabathia. In fact, the Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings when Price faces off against Sabathia. Also, the Rays are 35-15 in Price's last 50 starts vs. the American League East and 6-1 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Sabathia has been good recently (3.43 ERA L3 starts) but Price has been great (0.84 ERA L3 starts). Take Tampa.
Jimmy Boyd
Miami Marlins -130
We'll fade the Braves this evening as they bring southpaw Mike Minor to the mound. His 6.98 ERA is the worst in the majors. He is 0-3 (2-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 9.95 in his last six starts. Plus, he is 0-1 (1-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 7.65 in 4 career starts versus the Marlins. Miami's Mark Buehrle has been a more reliable investment to say the least. He has a solid 3.53 ERA on the season, and the Marlins have won 5 of his last 6 starts. Plus, he's 3-0 lifetime against the Braves with an ERA of 4.05. We'll take Miami.