Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday March, 1

Washington State at UCLA
The Bruins look to take advantage of a Washington State team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games. UCLA is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-9 1/2)

Game 709-710: Michigan at Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 66.313; Illinois 66.058
Dunkel Line: Even; 118
Vegas Line: Illinois by 1 1/2; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+1 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Florida State at Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 64.940; Virginia 69.981
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 5; 119
Vegas Line: Virginia by 4; 114 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-4); Over

Game 713-714: Colorado at Oregon (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 61.390; Oregon 69.736
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Oregon by 5 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick Oregon (-5 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: Villanova at Rutgers (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 59.317; Rutgers 61.306
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 2; 142
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 4; 138
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+4); Over

Game 717-718: Virginia Tech at Clemson (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 60.491; Clemson 63.633
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 3; 127
Vegas Line: Clemson by 6; 121
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+6); Over

Game 719-720: Georgia at Kentucky (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 60.026; Kentucky 82.038
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 22; 124
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 19; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-19); Under

Game 721-722: Washington at USC (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 62.853; USC 57.133
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Washington by 7 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: USC (+7 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: Utah at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 46.335; Oregon State 66.486
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 20; 132
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 17; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-17); Under

Game 725-726: UC-Davis at Cal Poly (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 46.026; Cal Poly 50.643
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 4 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 15 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (+15 1/2); Under

Game 727-728: Utah State at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 57.751; San Jose State 53.072
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 4 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Utah State by 4; 132
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-4); Over

Game 729-730: Pacific at UC-Santa Barbara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 49.950; UC-Santa Barbara 60.514
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 10 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 12; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+12); Under

Game 731-732: Washington State at UCLA (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 57.641; UCLA 68.417
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11; 139
Vegas Line: UCLA by 9 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-9 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: Louisiana Tech at Fresno State (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 56.177; Fresno State 58.878
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 2 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 6; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+6); Under

Game 735-736: New Mexico State at Nevada (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 57.728; Nevada 63.908
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 6; 147
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-3 1/2); Over

Game 737-738: Idaho at Hawaii (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 50.132; Hawaii 55.536
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 5 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 3; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-3); Under

Game 739-740: Southern Illinois vs. Indiana State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 50.554; Indiana State 54.469
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 4; 130
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 5 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+5 1/2); Over

Game 741-742: Bradley vs. Drake (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 48.527; Drake 54.147
Dunkel Line: Drake by 5 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Drake by 7 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+7 1/2); Over

Game 743-744: Portland vs. San Francisco (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 47.479; San Francisco 59.500
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 13; 131
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 745-746: Pepperdine at San Diego (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 48.172; San Diego 50.016
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 128
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+3 1/2); Over

Game 747-748: SE Missouri State vs. Tennessee Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 48.253; Tennessee Tech 49.894
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 1 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 749-750: Jacksonville State vs. Morehead State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 56.207; Morehead State 50.832
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 5 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 761-762: North Florida vs. East Tennessee State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Florida 51.570; East Tennessee State 53.489
Dunkel Line: East Tennessee State by 2; 133
Vegas Line: East Tennessee State by 3; 128
Dunkel Pick: North Florida (+3); Over

Game 763-764: FL-Gulf Coast vs. USC Upstate (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: FL-Gulf Coast 49.498; USC Upstate 53.592
Dunkel Line: USC Upstate by 4; 147
Vegas Line: USC Upstate by 6; 143
Dunkel Pick: FL-Gulf-Coast (+6); Over

Game 765-766: Sacred Heart at Long Island (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacred Heart 46.220; Long Island 58.442
Dunkel Line: Long Island by 12; 159
Vegas Line: Long Island by 8 1/2; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Island (-8 1/2); Under

Game 767-768: Central Connecticut at Wagner (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Connecticut 46.261; Wagner 59.432
Dunkel Line: Wagner by 13; 139
Vegas Line: Wagner by 10 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wagner (-10 1/2); Over

Game 769-770: Monmouth at Robert Morris (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 53.226; Robert Morris 55.454
Dunkel Line: Robert Morris by 2; 129
Vegas Line: Robert Morris by 12; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+12); Under

Game 771-772: Quinnipiac at St. Francis (NY) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 53.965; St. Francis (NY) 53.670
Dunkel Line: Even; 142
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 1 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Francis (NY) (+1 1/2); Over

Game 773-774: VMI vs. Winthrop (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VMI 45.489; Winthrop 48.385
Dunkel Line: Winthrop by 3; 125
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 775-776: Charleston Southern vs. NC-Asheville (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charleston Southern 49.749; NC-Asheville 58.767
Dunkel Line: NC-Asheville by 9; 138
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 777-778: Binghamton vs. UMBC (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Binghamton 36.854; UMBC 33.932
Dunkel Line: Binghamton by 3; 126
Vegas Line: UMBC by 2; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Binghamton (+2); Under

Marc Lawrence

Michigan at Illinois
Prediction: Illinois

Remember the scene near the end of ‘Titanic’ where Leonardo DiCaprio looked at Kate Winslet and begged, “Hang on, Rose!” as the great ship began its final descent into a watery grave? That’s about where things are right now at Champaign. Believe it or not, when Illinois upset then No. 5 Ohio State on January 10, some bracketologists had the Illini pegged as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Since then, however, Bruce Weber’s team has hit an iceberg and self-destructed with a horrific 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS skein (lost six straight games prior to Iowa on 2-26) that may just bring an end to Weber’s nine-year tenure at the school. So how can we suggest you risk your hard-earned money on a reeling team whose season has clearly unraveled? Trusting in our database, for one thing, which suggests NOW is the right time to take a shot with the Illini. That’s because coach Weber has enjoyed great success in today’s role. He’s 5-0 SU and ATS at home in this series with revenge and also owns a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS mark in Last Home Games versus a .750 or less foe. If that doesn’t pique your interest, how about Michigan’s weak 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS effort on the road versus winning opposition this year? Or the fact that the visitor in this series has cashed in only FIVE of the last 26 meetings? All good stuff but we think the biggest reason to back the hosts tonight is this: it will most likely be Weber’s last appearance on the sidelines at Assembly Hall. That and the emotional sendoff of Senior Day tells us Illinois will summon up their most complete effort of the year and close out the regular season with a win for victory-starved players and fans alike. The Illini finally show some fight in what could be Weber’s swan song. We recommend a 1-unit play on Illinois.

MTi Sports

Clippers at Kings
Prediction: Over

The Kings are 8-0 OU (+16.2 ppg) at home after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent, 7-0 OU (+14.6 ppg) at home after a game in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times and 7-0 OU (+11.6 ppg) at home when Demarcus Cousins had a double-double the last two.. Take the Kings and Clippers OVER.

Rob Vinciletti

Central Conn vs. Wagner
Play: Wagner -10.5

We dont see a line on these guys from Staten Island, New York too often. Tonight However, we will take advantage of a huge revenge situation in this one. Wagner defeated Central Connecticut St earlier in the season and were beat by them in the rematch on Saturday, in perhaps their worst loss of the season. Wagner should bounce back big here tonight led by Southern. Mississipi transfer, and lock down point guard Kenneth Ortiz. When Properly motivated as they should be here tonight we have seen what these guys can do. This year they have done things that are rarely done from their conference. They have gone on the Big East road and beat Pittsburgh Handily, as a 13 point dog and have a close loss at U.Conn and road wins over Princeton, Santa Clara and Penn this season. Some of their losses were real tight this season too. They have won 11 of 13 vs losing teams and 12 of 14 off 3+ road games. Now they come back to the Spiro center to serve up revenge on a C.Conn. St teams that has dropped 8 of 11 vs winning teams. Its highly unlikely they will shoot over 50% for a 3rd straight game and I expect a much better defensive effort from Wagner here tonight. Look for Wagner to coast to a win and cover.

Sean Murphy

Clippers @ Kings
PICK: Over 201.5

The Kings are pushing the pace at every opportunity right now, having hoisted up at least 84 shots in seven consecutive games.

That fast tempo seems to be paying off, as Sacramento has won back-to-back games, and has scored 108, 115, and 103 points in its last three contests.

While the Clippers have looked sharp defensively at times, their overall numbers leave a lot to be desired. On the road, L.A. is giving up 95.7 points per game on 45.2% shooting. Not surprisingly, the Clips have posted an 8-7 o/u mark away from home.

We can expect the Clippers to have plenty of offensive success in this game, with Chris Paul orchestrating the offense against a Kings defense that gives up just shy of 102 ppg on 47% shooting.

Note that the Clips were held to only 97 points against the T'Wolves in their first game following the All-Star break. They haven't been held under 100 points in consecutive games since February 8th and 10th (one 100-point effort was made possible by overtime on 2/18).

The last time these two teams hooked up in Sacramento, they combined to score 205 points last February. Both sides were much weaker offensively. The Clippers were giving significant minutes to the likes of Al-Farouq Aminu and Ryan Gomes (he started the game), while the Kings had the trio of Beno Udrih, Jermaine Taylor, and Omri Casspi in their starting five. Tyreke Evans sat out that contest.

As long as we see both teams shoot close to their season average (which I'm expecting given the ideal rest situation), I believe the pace alone will get this one 'over' the number.

Jim Feist

Idaho vs Hawaii
Pick: Idaho

Idaho is a fine team at 16-12 and on a 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS run. The Vandals are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games and 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games against a team with a winning home record. They take on a struggling Hawaii team that is on a 0-3 SU/ATS run, as well as a 0-6 ATS run. The Vandals are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Hawaii. Play Idaho!

Dave Cokin

New Mexico State vs Nevada
Pick: Nevada

Nevada got lucky at Fresno State on Saturday, winning in 3OT despite playing a pretty lousy game. Look for a more focused showing here as the Wolf Pack goes for the WAC clincher against the second place Aggies. UNR appears to match up well with New Mexico State and I like them to wrap up the series sweep and the conference crown.

Free CBB release for 3/1: Illinois -2 over Michigan. We're siding with the Fighting Illini in this matchup with the Wolverines. Michigan is just 3-6 SU on the road this season, and should be getting more than a basket here. Illinois averages 68.6 points/game on 47.5% shooting at home, where they are holding opponents to 59.1 points/game on just a 39.9 FG%. The Fighting Illini have fallen victim to overvalue by oddsmakers, as they are just 10-17 ATS. But with this line, we're merely interested in them to win this game straight up. And that's something Illinois is definitely capable of as they are a very solid 13-3 SU at home. Michigan has had defensive difficulties on the road, allowing opponent to too many high percentage shots. And they don't score much away from home either, averaging 61 points/game. Home court has been everything when these schools get together, and we're expecting more of the same tonight. The home team is 19-4 ATS in the last 23 meetings. Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in their last five visits here. The Fighting Illinois won all five of those meetings SU by an average of 11.4 points. We'll lay the deuce for home court advantage in this game, taking Illinois -2. Our free plays are now 169-90-1 (65%) all-time. Sign up today at www.iseewinners.com to receive the best free basketball picks via email and/or SMS.

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is the underdog Villanova Wildcats plus the points as they visit Rutgers.

Both Big East schools are well below the break-even .500 mark for the year, so it is hard to actually get excited about laying any points with either side. That being the case, I suggest taking the points with the visitors and looking for a close game.

Rutgers was able to spring an overtime upset win at Seton Hall this past Saturday, but the Scarlet Knights had lost their previous six games, and had failed to cover in five of those six previous losses.

The Knights are also just 1-7 when installed as the favorite this season.

True, Villanova is mired in a four-game slide of their own, but the Wildcats are 3-1 straight up the last four series meetings, and a positive 7-2 straight up the past nine times the schools have squared off.

This one could very well be decided at the buzzer, so take the points as 'Nova gets the cover.

1♦ VILLANOVA

SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +165 over SAN JOSE

The Sharks returned from a nine-game trip and in their first game back they scored 1:22 into the game and beat Philadelphia 1-0. The shutout is notable but it was not a great outing for the Sharks overall, much like the Sharks’ nine-game excursion. Now they're being asked to lay -185 against the surging Sabres in what has to be considered one of the biggest overlays of the week. Buffalo went into Anaheim last night and beat the red-hot Ducks 2-0. The Sabres have picked up points in six straight games, which includes a 6-2 win over Pittsburgh and 2-1 win over the Bruins. Buffalo is now five points out of the final playoff spot with 17 games remaining. What seemed like a far reach a couple of weeks ago is now within their grasp. Prior to last night's game, the Sabres had three full days of rest so fatigue will not be an issue. Besides, winning energizes a team and the Sabres are anxious to be back on the ice. The Sabres are in much better form than the Sharkies, they're better defensively, they have a big edge in net. These current Sharks do not warrant this type of billing. Play: Buffalo +165 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +174 over PHILADELPHIA

The Flyers return home from a brief but difficult four-game trip that took them through Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary and San Jose. At Edmonton and San Jose they were shutout. At Winnipeg and Calgary they managed duplicate 5-4 OT wins. Conceivably, it could've been an 0-4 trip and it's not like they were playing four of the elite. They were playing two bubble teams, one reeling team and one bottom feeder. After this game, the Flyers will have two full days off before playing Washington on Sunday and as a result, this game has danger written all over it. The Islanders are on the verge of relevance. Their 61 points puts them on the same level as the Canadiens, Wild and Hurricanes but that's on paper only. Talent wise, the Islanders are loaded, they just have to learn how to close out games and win consistently. They're coming off a 3-2 OT loss in Washington in a game they led 2-0 with 3½ minutes to go. Prior to that one, they outplayed the Senators in a misleading 5-2 loss after beating the Rangers. Too much being offered here with a live dog against a Flyers team in a vulenerable spot. Play: N.Y. Islanders +181 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +165 over VANCOUVER

Win, lose or draw, taking back a tag like this on the Blues is simply too appealing to pass up on. The Blues are a defensive juggernaut that can frustrate or shut down anyone. They've already played the Canucks three times this season and have taken five out of a possible six points from them. The Blues get outstanding goaltending and they come in here red-hot with four consecutive victories and 10 wins in their past 13 games. St. Louis will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs and that scenario certainly has influence on this price. However, it's not going to deter us, because the Blues barely broke a sweat last night in their 5-2 win over Edmonton and the Canucks return home from a six-game trip in which they split 3-3. You certainly don't need us to tell you that the Canucks are a great team but this isn't about wagering against them. This play is all about the price being offered on a hot Blues team that gives up the least amount of scoring chances in the league and that has the NHL's best goaltending. Play: St. Louis +165 (Risking 2 units).

WINNIPEG -½ +133 over Florida

This is without question the biggest game of the year for the Jets. The Jets sit in ninth place in the conference, just a point behind the 8th placed Capitals but Washington has two games in hand. After this one, the Caps will have three games in hand. Four points ahead of Winnipeg for first place in the division are the Florida Panthers. The Jets simply can't afford to fall six points behind the Panthers and below the Caps with three extra games played. The “must-win” theory is perhaps the most overplayed in sports betting and it has no influence on this choice. We were just setting up the importance of the game for Winnipeg in an arena that they've responded in all season long. When the Panthers were here on Jan. 21, they won in a shootout but were outshot 44-23. The Panthers have won three straight and have picked up points in four straight but have played Minnesota, Carolina, Montreal and Toronto over that span. Ask any playoff contending team to handpick the four teams they would like to play right now and they’d all choose that same quartet. Now the Panthers take a big step up in class at a difficult venue. On paper, the Panthers are seemingly warm when in fact they're hanging on by a thread against poor competition. Now the market has them overvalued and we plan on taking full advantage. Play: Winnipeg -½ +133 (Risking 2 units).

Jack Jones

Virginia -3.5

The Virginia Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. I'll gladly back them at home on Senior Night Thursday as they take care of the Florida State Seminoles by 4-plus points. This is going to be one highly motivated team in their home finale.

Virginia has quietly gone 21-7 this season to likely earn themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers have been extremely tough at home, going 13-2 while outscoring opponents by 16.7 points/game. The reason this team can be trusted is their ability to play defense as well as anyone in the country. The Cavaliers give up 52.2 points/game overall, including 48.6 at home.

Florida State is a big over-hyped due to their wins over Duke and North Carolina this season. They come into this game having lost two straight, including an embarrassing 62-78 road loss at Miami last time out. FSU did beat Virginia 58-55 at home in their first meeting, but I believe the Cavaliers will have their revenge at home this time around. The Seminoles are just 5-7 in road games this season.

Virginia is 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Virginia is 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games overall. The Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Bet Virginia Thursday.

Freddy Wills

Quinnipiac vs. St. Francis NY
Play: Quinnipiac -130

Originally I liked St. Francis, but picked to finish 11th in the NEC they’ve already out done themselves and have had a great season if they lost in the first round of the tournament. They play Quinnipiac who is a favorite in this game for a reason. They are the better team and they just so happened to lose twice this season to St. Francis. Beating a team 3 times is tough especially since Quinnipiac had won 10 straight before the two losses over St. Francis (NY). Expect Quinnipiac to bounce back and move on in the tournament.

Matt Fargo

Washington State vs. UCLA
Play: Washington State +10

This line has come down from its opening number and you have to figure that the recent stories popping up about the program have something to do with it. The Sports Illustrated article that hit the web showed the problems that are going on including issues with the players against one another as well as head coach Ben Howland. An at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament that was slim before this week is likely out the door now and the players will certainly not be going all out as the season closes.

Things have not been great in Pullman this year as Washington St. is sitting at 14-14 overall including 6-10 in the Pac 12 but the Cougars continue to fight. They have dropped some close games recently, losing to Washington by four points, Arizona by four points, three points to UCLA and four points to Arizona St. Washington St. has been an underdog of more than 8.5 points only once in conference action and just twice all year and it covered both of those games.

Taking a look at the numbers and you will see that these two teams are nearly identical. Both are shooting above 46 percent from the floor while allowing right around 43 percent shooting on defense while both teams own a slight edge in rebounding margin. Washington St. does have a significant edge at the free throw line and that has been one of its strengths all season. That was not case in its last game against Washington as it went 17-32 from the stripe but that aberration will not come into play here.

Washington St. is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games coming off a loss by six points or fewer while going 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games coming off a home game. UCLA meanwhile is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games coming off a loss by three points or fewer including going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games coming off a conference loss by three points or less. This is a solid price for a team that we will see play harder than it opponent as at this point, the Bruins are just waiting for the end of the season to arrive.

Steve Janus

Virginia -4

My money is on Virginia to come away with at least a 5-point win at home over a talented Florida State team. The Cavaliers are an impressive 13-2 at home this season, while Florida State is just 5-7 on the road. The Seminoles have some pretty ugly losses on the road. They lost by 20-points at Clemson, loss to a Boston College team that is 4-11 in ACC, and just lost by 16 at Miami last time out.

What makes this an even strong play is the fact that this is senior night for Virginia, as they get ready to play their last home game of the season. The Cavaliers will be plenty motivated after a heartbreaking 51-54 loss at home to North Carolina in their last game. That loss actually adds even more power to this play, as the Cavaliers are 11-3 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Virginia is also 14-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons and 13-4 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.