Craig Trapp
Southern Illinois vs. Indiana St
Play: Indiana St -5
Really more a play against SILL as they have been terrible L10 games losing 8 of 10 straight up and 0-5 ATS L5. Sycamores have a solid team that not only can beat SILL but might even pull some big upsets in the MVC Tourney.
Vegas Experts
LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings
Play: LA Clippers
After losing their first game after the break at home to the T'wolves, look for the Clippers to bounce back laying a small number on the road to an inferior Kings squad. Sacramento won here at home Tuesday, beating a poor Utah squad. This is a step up in class they will be unable to handle. Prior to winning back to back games against lousy opponents, Sac-town had lost six straight. Look for them to resume their losing ways this evening.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
San Diego -3.5 over Pepperdine: Last year Pepperdine took all 3 meetings from the Toreros and this year San Diego gets to return the favor after taking the first 2 meetings of the year by 9 and 13 points. San Diego is just 7-9 in conference play, but they have played very well down the stretch as they won 4 of their last 7 games, which included road wins at Pepperdine and Loyola, plus just an 8 point loss at home to Gozaga. Pepperdine comes in with a 4-12 mark in the WCC and while they did win their last 2 conference games lets note that one of them was vs a Santa Clara team that was 0-14 in conference play and had lost 16 straight before that game and the other win was vs a Portland team that finished the season with a 3-13 WCC mark, so don't take too much stock in that little 2 game win streak. The Waves have had really problems scoring away from home as they have averaged just 66.1 ppg away from home overall and 56 ppg in their neutral site games. San Diego has scored just 58 ppg in their neutral site games, but they have scored 68.1 ppg when playing away from home in the conference, including 70 ppg in their last 7 WCC away games. San Diego has struggled with defense away from home as they have allowed 74.4 ppg on the road this year, but they have played better down the stretch as they have allowed just 62 ppg in their last 3 away from home. The Waves have been average on defense this year as they have allowed 66.1 ppg both overall and on the road, but down the stretch they have allowed a bit more at 71.8 ppg in their last 5 games. San Diego is the better team and while Pepperdine has won their last 2 overall, it was vs teams are just 3-29 in conference play. I look for the Toreros to complete the 3 game sweep in easy fashion here.
3 UNIT PLAY
C. Connecticut State/ Wagner Over 137: These two teams met in the season finally and 139 points were scored in that game. It was the second game in a row that State scored 78 points and that has helped them average a solid 68 ppg in their last 5 games. CCSU has scored 68.6 ppg on the road and 67.7 ppg in conference play this year, while Wagner has allowed 62.3 ppg at home and 63.3 ppg in conference play. I feel that 65 points from CCSU would really be good in this game. Wagner is the highest scoring team in the Northeast Conference at 73.6 ppg and they have averaged 76.2 ppg at home. They also shoot very well at home, hitting 45.7% of their shots overall, 36.4% of their shots from long range and 74.5% of their FT's, so this team scores in all facets of their offense at home. Wagner did put up just 61 points in their season finale vs CCSU, but that game didn't mean anything and I expect them back to their normal selves in this one. Despite the 61 points, the Seahawks have still scored 77 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 78 ppg in their last 5 at home. Wagner should bounce back in this one strong as they will be taking on a CCSU team that has allowed a whopping 76.2 ppg on the road, to go along with allowing 47% shooting and 36.7% from long range. Even though that last game didn't mean anything, the Seahawks were still embarrassed in that game, so I really expect them to come out and get their points, and put about 77 points on the board, while CCSU should come in around 65 points. I expect this one in the 140's.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida St +4 over VIRGINIA
Let's do a little simple math here. We all know that these are two solid defensive teams , as evidenced by the small total of 116. The next thing to consider is that Virginia is 0-7 straight up when they score less than 60 points. No doubt, they'll be hard pressed to reach that number here and even if they do, they still have to win by five to cover. FSU is coming off back-to-back losses to Duke and Miami. The 16-point loss to the Canes was especially ugly but what it did do was create an overreaction here. The Seminoles have shown an ability to bounce back all year long and we expect a big response here. The Cavaliers are going to the dance but so what. They've struggled against top-tier teams and they often win or lose by three or less. They rank 282nd in the country in points per game and 268th in rebounds. Those are not the type of numbers that encourage laying points to a quality program like the Seminoles. Definite upset possibility. Play: #711 Florida +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Pass NBA
Sammy P
Calgary at Phoenix
Play: Calgary +150
There is no doubt that one of the hottest teams on paper right now is the Phoenix Coyotes. Winners of 11 of their last 12 games they have vaulted up the standings, claiming the top spot in the Pacific Division which is good for third overall in the Western Conference. Not everything is as it seems though and upon closer examination we see that five of those 11 wins were in a shootout or overtime. Both times during this streak it took overtime or a shootout for the Coyotes to get by the Flames. One has to think that the bounces won't be going the Coyotes way every night. Calgary has lost its last four games with two of those games coming in a shootout. They have faced some very stiff competition of late and should be up to the task tonight in what I project to be another close one goal game. The play is definitely on the big juicy dog.
Andrew Lange
Portland vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -9
San Francisco has done a good job taking care of the bottom-tier of the WCC this season. In games against Portland, Pepperdine, San Diego and Santa Clara, the Dons won by margins of 34, 1, 15, 13, 14, 16 and 11. The lone single-digit game was a one-point road win over Portland but San Fran was playing the second of back-to-back road games; off a hard fought loss at Gonzaga. Portland has been outclassed for much of the year. They've managed to catch a few teams napping but three of their four league wins came against Santa Clara who didn't win a conference game. After starting the year 0-4 in league play, San Fran finished 8-8 with competitive losses to Loyola Marymount, BYU and St. Mary's and a home win over Gonzaga. The Dons are the better team in this matchup across the board and should be able to handle Portland from the opening tip.
WUNDERDOG
North Florida vs. East Tennessee St
Pick: Over 126.5
North Florida and East Tennessee State square off in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 game in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament, and one of these teams will put their uniforms away after the game. The Osprey have been a hot team, winners of three straight coming into this one, and the offense has come to life as they have averaged a robust 75.3 points per game in the process. Leading scorer Parker Smith went off for 46 points vs. Mercer and the Osprey are hot beyond the arc hitting 50% over their last two games. East Tennessee State is finding the offense as well, as their 156 combined points over their last two games is the highest two game production since conference play began. Both teams are clicking at the offensive end and should be able to shoot past the total in this one. Play on the OVER.
David Banks
New Mexico St / Nevada Under
The Nevada Wolfpack (23-5, 16-7 ATS) will attempt to lock up sole possession of the 2011-12 WAC Title Thursday night when they welcome the New Mexico State Aggies (22-8, 12-11 ATS) into the desert for the teams second meeting of the season; take this one in live from the Lawlor Events Center in Reno on ESPN2 & ESPN3.com starting at 11:00 ET.
The Aggies invade Reno in fine form having won each of their last five games (3-1-1 ATS) to giving them at the very least a shot at making the run to the regular season WAC Championship a bit more interesting. New Mexico State has already split with the pair of teams trailing it in the WAC standings, and if able to pull out the road win in tonights spot, the Aggies would pull to within a game of the Wolfpack with them closing out their regular season campaign at Fresno State on Saturday. Last the Aggies took to the hardwood, they toppled San Jose State by a 79-68 final tally, but the 11-point win came a couple buckets short of covering the 16-point closing spread; the defeat versus the oddsmakers line snapped their ATS win streak at three. Tonight will mark NMSTs first road game since early February they check in 6-4 SU & 5-4 ATS in true road games to date.
A quick glance of Nevadas regular season schedule would leave many unimpressed, and the ineptitude of their conference doesnt help their situation in the eyes of the selection committee. However, the Wolfpack have taken care of business in conference play winning all but one of their games with the lone defeat shockingly coming at home against an Idaho club it simply pounded in the road in the teams first meeting (73-55). Still, this is a very Feisty outfit that proved its ability to run with some of the big guns when it stuck with Iona in its own house over BracketBuster weekend. While their stats are far from eye-popping, theyre still competitive as the Wolfpacks 71.1 PPG average checks in as the countrys 101st best scoring offense, and the 64.8 PPG allowed garners the 111th ranking in points allowed. The Wolfpack will head into tonights grudge match 13-2 SU & 6-4 ATS as a host in their 10 lined games.
Nevada put an end to its two-game losing streak in its recent series with New Mexico State when it went into the Aggies house and handed them a 68-60 defeat as 4.5-point underdogs in the rivals first go round back in late January; the under cashed for the second meeting in a row and stands 5-3 in the teams L/8 overall confrontations. The Aggies have thrown gutter balls at each of the L/4 +.600 opponents theyve faced failing to cover the pointspread in each instance, and theyve also managed just 1-4 SU & ATS records the L/5 times they were dogged by four-points or less. The favorite has covered five of these teams L/7 meetings, but Nevada has only covered one of their L/5 following an outright win.
Dave Price
Virginia Cavaliers -3.5
The Cavaliers have been a tremendous investment at 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games overall. They have especially sparkled as small chalk, going 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Seminoles are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take Virginia.
Jimmy Boyd
Illinois -2
Michigan has really struggled away from home. It is just 3-6 in its last 9 true road games. One of those wins came against Nebraska, who is tied with Penn State for the worst record in the Big Ten, one of them came against Purdue (by only 2 points) and one came against Northwestern (in OT). The Wolverines do not have what I would consider to be a quality win on the road.
Illinois finally ended its skid with an impressive win over an Iowa team that is playing very well. That win gives the Fighting Illini some much needed momentum and confidence. With this being the last home game of the season for the Illini, you can expect them to leave it all on the floor.
Michigan has had zero luck in Champaign of late. It has lost 13 in a row at Assembly Hall and the last 11 losses have come by an average of 14.0 points.
Illinois is still holding out hope that it can play its way into the Big Dance since it has big wins over then-No. 19 Gonzaga, then-No. 5 Ohio State and then-No. 9 Michigan State.
The home team holds a major edge in this series having gone 19-4 ATS in the last 23 meetings. We'll ride this trend tonight.
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Timberwolves +3
This is the third game of a back to back to back for Minnesota but teams in the last game of three in a row have been very profitable against the spread this season. Minnesota's power forward Kevin Love who is in the top ten in the NBA in scoring and rebounding and was also crowned the 3 point shooting champion during All Star weekend is a very tough match up for Phoenix and I expect Love to have his way with the Sun's Channing Frys. The Suns are just 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven road games and Minnesota is on a 5-1 run against the spread overall. The road team is 8-2 against the spread in this series and I look for that success to continue. Take the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Louisiana Tech/ Fresno State Over 128: These teams met once this year so far and just 117 points were scored in that games, but I expect it to be different this time around. La Tech comes in a bit hot at the offensive end as they have averaged 81 ppg in their last 3 games. Now I know that those last 3 games where at home, but this is still a team that has averaged 66.2 ppg on the road this year, and in looking at Fresno we note that they have allowed 63 ppg at home and 68.2 ppg in their last 5 overall. I think it's safe to expect at least 63 points from La Tech in this one. La Tech does come in playing solid defense as they have allowed just 57.8 ppg in their last 4 games, but all four games were at home and this one will be on the road where they have allowed 73.5 ppg overall and 74 ppg in their conference road games this year. That gives a Fresno team that has averaged 68.4 ppg at home to put up at least that much in this one. So at least 63 from La Tech and at least 68 from Fresno puts this game in the 130's. I expect a close game as well which should lead to FT's at the end and that should have this game possibly hitting the high 130's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points and a team (LOUISIANA TECH) is off 3 games that they led by 5+ points at the half vs an opponent that has scored 75 points or more 2 straight games. This play is 50-17 since 1997.
4 UNIT PLAY
San Diego -3.5 over Pepperdine: Last year Pepperdine took all 3 meetings from the Toreros and this year San Diego gets to return the favor after taking the first 2 meetings of the year by 9 and 13 points. San Diego is just 7-9 in conference play, but they have played very well down the stretch as they won 4 of their last 7 games, which included road wins at Pepperdine and Loyola, plus just an 8 point loss at home to Gozaga. Pepperdine comes in with a 4-12 mark in the WCC and while they did win their last 2 conference games lets note that one of them was vs a Santa Clara team that was 0-14 in conference play and had lost 16 straight before that game and the other win was vs a Portland team that finished the season with a 3-13 WCC mark, so don't take too much stock in that little 2 game win streak. The Waves have had really problems scoring away from home as they have averaged just 66.1 ppg away from home overall and 56 ppg in their neutral site games. San Diego has scored just 58 ppg in their neutral site games, but they have scored 68.1 ppg when playing away from home in the conference, including 70 ppg in their last 7 WCC away games. San Diego has struggled with defense away from home as they have allowed 74.4 ppg on the road this year, but they have played better down the stretch as they have allowed just 62 ppg in their last 3 away from home. The Waves have been average on defense this year as they have allowed 66.1 ppg both overall and on the road, but down the stretch they have allowed a bit more at 71.8 ppg in their last 5 games. San Diego is the better team and while Pepperdine has won their last 2 overall, it was vs teams are just 3-29 in conference play. I look for the Toreros to complete the 3 game sweep in easy fashion here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
C. Connecticut State/ Wagner Over 137: These two teams met in the season finally and 139 points were scored in that game. It was the second game in a row that State scored 78 points and that has helped them average a solid 68 ppg in their last 5 games. CCSU has scored 68.6 ppg on the road and 67.7 ppg in conference play this year, while Wagner has allowed 62.3 ppg at home and 63.3 ppg in conference play. I feel that 65 points from CCSU would really be good in this game. Wagner is the highest scoring team in the Northeast Conference at 73.6 ppg and they have averaged 76.2 ppg at home. They also shoot very well at home, hitting 45.7% of their shots overall, 36.4% of their shots from long range and 74.5% of their FT's, so this team scores in all facets of their offense at home. Wagner did put up just 61 points in their season finale vs CCSU, but that game didn't mean anything and I expect them back to their normal selves in this one. Despite the 61 points, the Seahawks have still scored 77 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 78 ppg in their last 5 at home. Wagner should bounce back in this one strong as they will be taking on a CCSU team that has allowed a whopping 76.2 ppg on the road, to go along with allowing 47% shooting and 36.7% from long range. Even though that last game didn't mean anything, the Seahawks were still embarrassed in that game, so I really expect them to come out and get their points, and put about 77 points on the board, while CCSU should come in around 65 points. I expect this one in the 140's.
Georgia +19 over KENTUCKY: No matter what the Cats do down the stretch they will be a Number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, so with Florida on deck and the SEC tournament right after that, what really do the Cats have to play for in this one. In the first meeting they had a great defensive showing, as they allowed just 44 points to the Dawgs, but Kentucky also scored just 57 points in that game and Georgia's defense is where I feel they will be able to keep this one close. Georgia has played real good defense down the stretch as they have allowed more than 62 points just twice in their last 9 games and one of those games were in OT. Georgia has allowed just 61.9 ppg over that 9 game stretch and that has included allowing just 62 points to Florida, 61 points to Vanderbilt, 59 points to Arkansas and 57 points to Kentucky. All those teams have been good offensive teams this year. Georgia plays a slow down brand, which limits opponent chances during the game and it has allowed them to stay in games this year. The Dawgs are just 4-10 in the SEC but just 1 of those 10 losses were by more than 15 points, while 7 of their losses have been by 11 points or less, so this is not a team that has been blown out many times this year. True that Kentucky has been dominant at home, but they still don't have a whole lot to play for in this one and they should slow the game down right along with Georgia to stay healthy and just get out of here with a win as they prepare for their Tournament run. I expect the Cats to win by about the same 13 points as they did in the first meeting.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Michigan +2 over ILLINOIS: as Jeff Grant has stated the Wolverines have not taken too kindly to losses this year, as they have gone 7-0 both SU & ATS and have outscored those opponents by 10.7 ppg. Illinois is off a big win vs Iowa, but they did catch the Hawkeyes off BB Upset wins. Illinois does need this one bad, but they have needed a lot of big games down the stretch and coming having won just 2 of their last 10 games. Michigan is the better team here and will get back on track after a bad home loss to Purdue, while Illinois will revert back to their losing ways.
Colorado +6 over OREGON: Just too many points for two teams that are both 11-5 in the Pac 12 and evenly matched. Colorado does play the better defense as that should help them keep it close here. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points if they have covered 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread and are playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. Thuis play is 41-15 the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
HAWAII -2.5 over Idaho: HAWAII is 8-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season, while IDAHO is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.
Utah +17 over OREGON STATE: Play on Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points if they are a terrible offensive team (<=63 PPG) off a win of 6 points or less vs and an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games. This play is 26-7 the last 5 seasons.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Portland Over 197: 6 of the last 7 meeting in Portland have gone over the total, with 3 of the last 4 meetings there having put up 200+ points. Miami comes in as the highest scoring team in the NBA at 103.7 ppg and that includes averaging 106.9 ppg in their last 8 games, plus the Heat have averaged a solid 102.9 ppg on the road this year. Portland has upped their tempo this year, especially at home where they have averaged 104.8 ppg on 47.45 shooting and they did just stick 137 pouints on a solid Spurs quad on this floor a couple of games ago. This game will be on TNT and both teams will look to put on a good show. Miami is fresher and should have a good offensive showing vs a solid Portland defense, while the Blazers should get their offense going vs a Miami team that has allowed 96.8 ppg on the road. This will be fun to watch.
LA Clippers -3.5 over Sacramento: The other night the Clippers had a flat game vs the Twolves and it was expected after their two superstars participated in the All-Star game, but now with a day off and a bit more focus they should be ready to get back to winning as they make their push for a solid seeding in the NBA Playoffs. The Kings have done pretty well at home (8-5), but the Cliipers have gone 8-7 on the road this year. Both teams are playing on 1 days rest, but I feel that the Clippers will be a bit more focused here after their big home loss to the TWolves in their last game.
2 UNIT PLAY
Orlando/ Oklahoma City Over 192: Google News Play. The Thunder are one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA as they come in averaging 102.4 ppg overall and 107.2 ppg in their last 5 games, despite putting up just 92 points at Philly last night. Orlando is not a great scoring team, but they do score 95.9 ppg at home and they shoot a lot of threes with good results as they have hit 39.1 % of their long range shots at home this year. The Thunder has been a decent team on defense this year as they have allowed 96 ppg overall, but on the road thy have allowed 97.4 ppg and in their last 5 overall they have allowed 97.6 ppg and that should allow an average Orlando Offense to put up at least 96 points in this one. Now despite an Orlando team that has played solid defense this year, they should still have some problems with this hot Oklahoma City offense that should also be good for about 96 points as well. Both teams should hit at least 96 points in this one and we should get a game in the high 190's here.
Jeff Alexander
Pepperdine +3.5
San Diego won both regular-season meetings but I can't see it making in 3 in a row against the Waves in 2012. These teams are just too evenly matched. The Toreros haven't shown they can be trusted laying any amount of points. They are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite. The Waves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games as an underdog. Bet Pepperdine.
Black Widow
Sacramento Kings +4
The Sacramento Kings have quietly been a money-making machine over the last few weeks. Sacramento doesn't get much respect due to their 12-22 record, the the fact of the matter is that this team has played a brutal schedule. The Kings have played only 13 home games compared to 21 road games this season. Sacramento is 8-5 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this year. Arco Arena is still one of the toughest places to play as fans have really come out to support their team. That's especially the case now that these fans know their team will be in Sacramento for the long haul after the city, their owners, and the NBA reached a tentative agreement earlier this week. The Kings are 23-3 in their last 26 and 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the Clippers. Sacramento is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference foes. The Clippers are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. Take the Kings and the points.