Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, March 10,2011

Jim Feist

Nuggets at Suns
Pick: Over

The Denver offense is still uptempo without Carmelo Anthony, scoring 100, 120, 103 and 94 points the last four games. The Over is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 road games. And They run into the ultimate uptempo team here. Hakim Warrick and Vince Carter each scored 32 points to help the Suns survive Houston guard Kyle Lowry's 32 points in a 113-110 Suns victory. That was part of a 7-2 run over the total. These teams rank 25 and 22 in the NBA in points allowed the over is 13-6 in Suns last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Play the Nuggets/Suns Over the total.

Marc Lawrence

Buffalo at Kent State
Play: Kent State

The top-seeded ZIps take on No. 8 seed Buffalo in Quarterfinals play at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland in the MAC tourney tonight knowing Kent State is 20-4 SU this season versus .640 or less opposition. On the flip side the Bulls enter 3-5 SU and ATS this season in games against greater than .600 opponents. Even more mind-boggling is the fact that No.1 seeds in conference tourneys are 112-20 SU in games against No. 8 seeds since 1991. With that look for Buffalo to drop to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS this season in games against .640 or greater foes here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kent State.

Scott Spreitzer

New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks

The Knicks jumped out to a big lead last night in Memphis and eventually had to hold on at the end for a 110-108 win. New York owns nice numbers in the second of back-to-back nights, but I believe they're going to face a refocused Dallas team tonight. The Mavs were a little lazy on the defensive end in the three games leading into last night's tilt with New Orleans. They played better on the stop-end last night, holding the Hornets to 93 points, but the Mavs lost by a singleton. Facing Amare and Carmelo will get the compeitive juices going. Then again, Dallas normally plays well against teams with a winning record, currently on a 20-10 ATS run. They'll be looking to get back on track after going 2-2 SU in their last four games. Any chance of a look-ahead to their weekend contest with the Lakers went out the window with last night's loss. The Mavs could face the Knicks without Chauncey Billups on the floor. The veteran PG is expected to miss another game. I expect his absence to catch up to NY in this back-to-back spot. Dallas, by the way, also plays well in this situation, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13. The Mavs whipped the Knicks by 16 points in early February. Obviously, the Knicks are a different team now, but it must be noted that the Mavs were able to keep Amare from scoring in the second half. And if Billups doesn't play, the Knicks are simply in a tough matchup spot. Dallas is on a 70% ATS run against Eastern Conference opposition and I expect another win tonight.

Cajun Sports

New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: New York Knicks +6

American Airlines Arena will be the site of tonight’s east versus west battle between the host Dallas Mavericks and the visiting New York Knickerbockers. Each team will be playing their fourth game in five days and both teams have injury issues that are uncertain at the time of this writing. Both of these teams have done well when playing the second of back-to-back affairs with the Knicks posting a record of 10-3 against the number while the Mavs check in with a 9-4 ATS mark. Short rest has not really been a problem for this Knicks squad as they are 12-4 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season. The more games the better, as the Knickerbockers are 14-2 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days this season. The role of road underdog has also been a favorite situation for the boys from Gotham with them going 20-5 against the spread in that situation. Dallas defeated the Knicks in New York back on February 2 winning 113 to 97 as a two-point road underdog. The Knicks have done a good job of bouncing back in the revenge situation posting a record of 37-21 ATS revenging a home loss the last 3 seasons. Success has been hard on the Mavericks the last couple of seasons especially in the following situations. Dallas is 5-16 ATS in home games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games the last two years. The Mavericks are 24-42 ATS as a home favorite and 7-21 ATS in home games versus non-conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks improved from the first meeting between the two teams so we will take the points here as they take the Mavs right down to the final tick of the clock.

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana U vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -4.5

The Nittany Lions have won 4 of the past 5 in the series and have won all 3 times this season against losing teams. They are one of the few teams to play under 5 games on their schedule vs losing teams. Tonight they take on an Indiana team that is a horrendous 1-9 straight up and against the spread in all tournaments the past 3 seasons. They are also 0-5 with home loss revenge, 3-10 vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game and 1-8 with just 2 spread wins off 3 or more losses. Look for Penn. St to win and cover in this first round Big 10 Match up.

Info Plays

3* Vanderbilt -13

Reasons why Vanderbilt will cover:

1) LSU comes into the tournament having lost 13 of their last 14 games, and are no match for a very underrated Vanderbilt team. The Commodores beat LSU by 21-point on the road during the regular season. LSU is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

2) Vanderbilt is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games, while LSU is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.

3) Vanderbilt is 26-13 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1997.

Ray Monohan

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -4½

On Thursday in the ACC tourney its the #24 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on ESPN3. Odds for the matchup favor the Hokies by -4.5 to -5. I have Va. Tech winning this one by 9+. Considering the Hokies crushed Georgia Tech 102-77 less than a month ago, you’d think they might be more than a 5-point favorite. Sure, Virginia Tech is a mediocre 4-6 on the road this season, but it’s also 4-1 in neutral-site games. While Georgia Tech owns the far less impressive record at 13-17 compared to Va. Tech’s 19-10, the Yellow Jackets enter the ACC tourney a hotter team, having won 2 straight. (And the reason why we see oddsmakers put a bit of value on Georgia Tech.) Some trends I like for this one include, GATECH are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Yellow Jackets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. The winner advances to play 3-seed FSU in Friday’s Qtr's.

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Lakers -2.5

The Lakers get their chance at payback for the Christmas Day 96-80 beatdown that Miami put on Los Angeles. LeBron powered the way with a triple double as he scored 27 points, dished out eleven of his team’s impressive twenty five assists, and grabbed eleven rebounds. Los Angeles couldn't catch Miami at a better time as the spiraling Heat fell at home, again, to Portland, 105-96 in their last game. That loss extended the Heat’s losing streak to five games and Miami has not covered the spread in their last seven games and they have not beat a team with a winning record since February 3rd. Lay the points.

MTi Sports

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

The Suns are 0-9 ATS when facing a team they lost to on the road in their previous same-season match-up and the Nuggets are 8-0 ATS after a road loss in which they had at least 20 offensive rebounds. Also, Denver is 4-0 ATS with at least one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak and the Suns are 0-6 ATS at home when Grant Hill took fewer than 10 shots. Consider taking Denver.

Tom Freese

New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -5½

New York is 34-29 straight up this year. The Knicks are 3-13 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in their last game. New York will be without Chauncey Billups in this game. New York is 3-13 ATS after scoring 110 or more points in their last game. New York is 5-13 ATS 18 meetings. The home team is 0-5 ATS the last meetings. Dallas is 46-18 straight up this year. The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS their last 10 Eastern Conference games. Dallas is 4-1 ATS when playing with no rest. Dallas is 11-5 ATS their last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. The Mavs are 4-0 ATS vs. NBA Atlantic teams.

Hollywood Sports

Louisiana State at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Louisiana State

Getting 13 points in a conference tournament game between two teams that are very familiar with each other is just too much to pass up. While the Commodores (21-9) swept the season series between these two teams, the Tigers played Vandy close in the first game (losing by just 8 points in Nashville) and actually held a 2-point halftime lead at home before they were buried by a 47-28 second-half margin. That big second half may lull Vandy into complacency tonight. LSU can be tenacious on the defensive end where they held their opponents on the road to just a 41.7% shooting percentage. The Commodores have been prone to cold spells on the offensive end as well. They shoot only 43.3% away from home. And they enter this game slumping after losing three of their last four games when they fell at home to Florida by an 86-76 score. Vandy is just 3-8-1 ATS when looking to rebound from a double-digit loss at home. Lastly, check out the tip time for this contest: 10:00 PM EST. That is 11:00 PM to both of these teams from the central time zone. This late start may contribute to lethargic play which will probably keep the score down which makes those 13 or so points just too valuable to pass up. Take the points with LSU.

Tony George

Colorado vs. Kansas State
Play: Under 148

Colorado is a 6.5 point dog. Colorado won BOTH games this year against KSU and although the Buffs screwed me yesterday blowing a cover and a roaring from behind win against a weak ISU team, look for them to give KSU some issues here. While everyone loves a high scoring game here, I do not see it. Both games went under this year WITH THE SAME LINE and the last game was a total of 114 points. WOW. I will be at this game in Kansas City today and caught both games at the Sprint Center. Take the UNDER for free play and sniff around on Colorado too.

Bryan Leonard

LSU vs. Vanderbilt
Play: LSU +13

It's a new year for the Tigers who have gone in the tank the second half of the season. Just 11-20 on the year and with just a single victory over the last six weeks. But they will be giving their all here with nothing held back as this very likely will be their final game of the season.

Vanderbilt sits at 21-9 and is on their way to the Big Dance. While they have dropped their last two games they know in their minds that this game should be a cakewalk. After all they have beaten LSU three straight games including a 90-69 victory at LSU just two weeks ago. A victory here means they play again tomorrow so look for the Vanderbilt coaching staff to play the starters limited minutes. The key to winning these tournaments is to limit the minutes of key players in victories, which always leaves the back door open for underdogs.

Vanderbilt is the far better team and will very likely get the win, but LSU will have plenty to say about it before it's over.

Black Widow

1* on Washington State +6

Washington suspended Venoy Overton from the Pac-10 tournament while Washington State lifted Klay Thompson's one-game penalty, clearing him to play in the quarterfinal game against the defending champion Huskies. And Washington might also lose senior co-captain Justin Holiday, who suffered a concussion Saturday and has been unable to practice this week. Meanwhile, Washington State regains the services of Reggie Moore. An ankle injury forced the sophomore point guard to sit out Saturday, but he practiced Wednesday and is ready to return. So Washington is likely down 2 starters while Washington State gets back 2 starters. There's no way in hell the Huskies should be this heavily favored tonight given the circumstances. WSU won both regular season meetings with Washington, topping the Huskies 87-80 at home and 80-69 on the road. The Huskies will have a hard time avoiding getting swept by the Cougars, let alone trying to beat them by more than 6 points to cover this ridiculous spread. The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Cougars are a bubble team right now so they will have no letdown here after already beating the Huskies twice this year. Washington is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Take Washington State and the points.