Jack Jones
USC -3
The USC Trojans are one of the more underrated teams in the country this season. At 18-13, the Trojans are certainly a bubble team and a couple victories in the Pac-10 Tournament could get them into the Big Dance. USC's staple all season has been their defense, where they are allowing just 62.9 PPG on 41% shooting. When you defend that well, you have a chance to beat anyone which is why they have beaten the likes of Tennessee, Texas and Arizona this season while also losing by just 2 points at Kansas.
USC went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS over their final 6 games so they are extremely hot coming into this one. The Cal Golden Bears are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games as an underdog. Cal is 18-38 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997. USC is 23-10 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1997. The Trojans are a superb 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with California. Take USC Thursday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Connecticut +5½ over Pittsburgh
The Panthers are big, they’re likely going to be a #1 or #2 seed in the tournament and they’re a serious threat to win it all. The thinking is that they’ll be playing a team that’s playing its third game in three days and that UConn will be exhausted. Think again. That angle has hurt bankrolls for a long time and we’re not talking about 45-yr-old men here. These are young and athletic kids that love playing and love being in the spotlight. Additionally, the Huskies barely broke a sweat yesterday in dismantling the Hoya’s and they just got stronger as the game went along. We’d much rather be backing a team (UConn) that is completely tuned up and familiar with their surroundings than a team that has been on the rail since Saturday. The Huskies will also have the luxury of playing in front of a whole lot more supporters at MSG. Pitt has lost two years in a row in their first game of the conference tourney under similar circumstances. That being they received a double-bye last year against Va Tach and lost and did the same the year before against the Irish. The Huskies are on a roll, they have momentum and Pitt could have trouble finding their rhythm. Play: Connecticut +5½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Minnesota +104 over Northwestern
The Golden Gophers come into this one losers of five in a row and nine of their last 10 conference games. The only team they beat over that span was the 4-14 Hawkeyes. That’s ugly for sure but this is like a brand new season starting today and the Gophers have a lot of positives going for them. For instance, Minnesota ranks first in the Big Ten in both field goal percentage defense (.398) and rebounding margin (+5.1) and that’s significant. The team has a standout performer of its own in All-Big Ten Second-Team selection Trevor Mbakwe and simply put, he’s a game changer. The Cats had never had the least amount of success of any team in the Big-10 tourney with a 5-13 record over the years, nor have they had success at this venue. Said NU coach Bill Carmody, “Last year we were 2-for-18 (from the 3-point line) in the first half (against Indiana) and won the game. That guy Reggie Miller is about the only guy who made shots there. I think it makes for bad TV for the tournament, to tell you the truth”. To make matters worse for the Wildcats, JerShon Cobb and John Shurna, two of NU’s best players are on the rack and that makes facing this relentless defense a daunting task. These two played eight days ago at the United Center and Minnesota had a 10-point lead with 14 minutes to go before Northwestern went on a 29-8 run to close out the game. That’s not going to happen again. The Gophers are an undervalued squad because of the way they finished the season but they’re dangerous as hell. They went to the conference championship game a season ago and coach Tubby Smith knows exactly how to prepare and turn things around for a game like this. Play: Minnesota +104 (Risking 2 units).
N.C. State +6 over Maryland
The Terps really ran out of gas down the stretch with three straight losses, all by double digits and while losing to the Tar Heels can be excused, losing by 14 points to both Miami and Virginia cannot. The Terps also hosted a game against the Wolfpack back on Feb 20 and won by seven points in a tight contest. Now Maryland will travel to Greensboro to play N.C. State in what has to be considered a home game for the Wolfpack. N.C. State finished two games behind the Terps in the conference but unlike Maryland, the Wolfpack never really had a chance of an invite. Maryland did but when the chips were down they choked big time and now the only way they get in is if they run the table. That’s about as likely to happen as Charlie Sheen getting a new sitcom this week. The first two days of conference championship play has taught us once again that these favorites that had hopes of making the Dance at one point are a very risky play because the wind has been taken out of their sails. Maryland is no exception. This is a team that has one pace and that’s never stop running. That really takes its toll come March and what we have here is a relaxed Wolfpack team getting significant points in a game they can win outright. Overlay. Play: N.C. State +6 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS +102 over Montreal
One really has to be concerned with the potential hangover of that Bruins/Canadiens game played on Tuesday night. It wasn’t the game so much as it was “the hit” and that’s all the Canadiens have heard or thought about since it happened. This wasn’t just an injury. This is a serious injury to a teammate and it affects everyone in that locker room. The Habs are very likely going to need a few days to get back into focus and while they’ve been winning a lot of games lately, the fact of the matter is that Montreal has to work their rear ends off to compete because talent wise, they’re just not that good. Carey Price is the only reason that Montreal is in the position they’re in, period and he should win the league’s MVP hands down because without him, Montreal would be nowhere near where they are right now in the standings. The Blue Notes are coming off back-to-back wins and last night’s win was especially satisfying after they fought back from being down 3-0. There’s also speculation that Alex Auld will go tonight but regardless of that, this one is all about playing against the Canadiens in the first game after that impacting hit on Max Pacioretty. Play: St. Louis +102 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog
Oklahoma State at Kansas
Pick: Oklahoma State +15
The Oklahoma State Cowboys picked up a big win yesterday as they squeaked past Nebraska by a single point to get their 19th win. They need at least a good effort here vs. Kansas, and perhaps a win to get into the NCAA Tournament. You can be sure they lay it all on the line in this one and with a sizable number to take down, they are certainly the valued side here. The Kansas Jayhawks are young and surprised at 29-2 and have all but locked up a No. 1 seed win or lose here.
I'll play on Oklahoma State and the bushel of points in this one.
Craig Davis
Syracuse at ST. JOHN'S (+1)
Today's free play is on St. John's over Syracuse in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament.
It's pretty simple. Much like my free play winner on New Orleans over Dallas last night in the NBA, there's always a storyline surrounding one team that virtually forces a gambler's hand into betting one way or another.
The Hornets last night were without PG Chris Paul, and the majority of the public pounded Dallas to the point the line moved from -3 all the way up to -5. The Hornets, trailing 92-85 with one minute left, ended up winning 93-92.
Although today's St. John's/Syracuse game doesn't have an injury overtone, it does have a major story from yesterday's controversial win by the Red Storm over Rutgers.
We all saw how lucky St. John's was down the stretch. They clearly committed three fouls in the final minute that weren't called. They stepped out of bounds with 1.7 seconds left, yet the refs were ready to get to the locker room and failed to make the correct call, letting the clock run down to all zeros.
The refs then failed to realize a St. John's player threw the ball in the stands after he stepped out of bounds. That wasn't called either, though if they would have gotten the first call right they would have had to call a technical foul for that.
That's five infractions that worked out in St. John's favor, yet they still only won by 2 points.
The general public is going to play off that and think to themselves, "Wow, the Red Storm got lucky yesterday... they won't get lucky again today against Syracuse. Their luck will run out."
I completely disagree. St. John's had a 10-point lead with around four minutes to play, but got lazy down the stretch and let Rutgers back in the game. That won't happen today. You will see an energized Red Storm crew that is just as talented as Syracuse at every position.
They want this game more; they want to prove to the country they are a legitimate contender and a team on the rise. Gotta love coach Steve Lavin and the slicked-back hair. Kinda like old school Pat Riley.
St. John's is 7-2 ATS over its last nine games overall (all against Big East teams) with five straight covers against a team with a SU winning record. Take the Johnnies, playing in revenge, to "upset" the Orange, 77-71.
3♦ ST. JOHN'S
Michael Cannon
Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame (-3'), at New York, NY
Take Notre Dame tonight against Cincinnati for your free Thursday winner.
I know Cincinnati is coming off an impressive win over South Florida, but Notre Dame is in a far different class than the Bulls.
The Irish can extend you with their outside shooting, then penetrate with Ben Hansbrough when the defense is spread out.
Cincinnati doesn’t defend well enough to be able to hang with the Irish and I see the Bearcats falling behind quickly and staying behind.
The Bearcats have actually garnered a couple of late-season wins against decent opposition, but they are no match for the Irish.
Take Notre Dame for the win and cover.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Chuck O'Brien
Wake Forest vs. Boston College (-13) at Greensboro
For Thursday’s first of two complimentary selections – and note that I’m on an 8-4 run with college basketball free plays, including a winner on Stanford-Oregon State OVER the total last night – take Boston College as a big favorite against Wake Forest in a first-round ACC tournament contest.
This is a quick rematch for these teams, as they faced each other at Boston College on Sunday, with the Eagles rolling to an 84-68 victory. Even though it came up just short of cashing as a 16½-point favorite, Boston College has still won three in a row by margins of 19, 15 and 16 points, and the first two of those games were on the road.
At 19-11 overall and 9-7 in the ACC, the Eagles are firmly on the Big Dance bubble, and thus they probably need at least two wins in this conference tournament to secure an at-large bid. But while Boston College has some incentive to win, you have to believe Wake Forest just wants its miserable season to end.
The Demon Deacons lost 15 of 16 conference games, and all but one of those losses was by 14 points or more – hence the team’s 5-10-1 ATS record in league play. Going back to Dec. 18, Wake Forest is 2-19, with its only triumphs coming against Virginia at home (76-71) and something called High Point (79-63). And even though the Demon Deacons barely got inside the number at B.C. on Sunday, they haven’t had consecutive spread-covers in their last 17 games, and that dates back to before New Year’s Day!
Boston College, which has cashed in six of its last eight games overall and six of seven after a non-cover, rolls to its fourth straight blowout victory and in the process keeps its Big Dance hopes alive while mercifully ending Wake Forest’s season.
3♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Joel Tyson
Minnesota vs. NORTHWESTERN (P) - at Indianapolis
For Thursday's freebie, I'll look to the Big Ten Tournament for Northwestern to put Minnesota out of its misery in a 2:30 Eastern tip-off in Indianapolis.
Minnesota was 16-4 at one point this year, but the Gophers have lost nine of their last 10, including five in a row, with one of those setbacks coming at Northwestern, 68-57, eight days ago.
The Wildcats have actually won two of the last three series meetings both straight up and against the spread, and they did close with straight up conference wins in three of their final five regular season outings.
Both schools are likely to end up in the NIT regardless of today's outcome, but the tailspin the Golden Gophers are in precludes me from backing them in this opening round meeting.
Northwestern the play here in this near-pick spot.
1♦ NORTHWESTERN
Stephen Nover
Minnesota vs. Northwestern (-1), at Indianapolis
The Gophers are reeling with nine losses in their last 10 games, including five consecutive defeats. The Gophers are 1-8-1 ATS in their past 10 games.
Minnesota's 16-4 start is a far distant memory.
The only way Minnesota can reach the Big Dance is to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament, which is not going to happen especially since Minnesota would have to upset top-ranked Ohio State in the quarterfinals.
So expect a one-and-done for the Gophers, who never recovered from the loss of senior point guard Al Nolen to a broken foot. The Gophers also are without Nolen's backup, Devoe Joseph, who transferred to Oregon.
The Gophers not only enter the tournament in a down cycle, but they are inexperienced with three true freshmen playing in their first tournament game - Austin Hollins, Chip Armelin and Maverick Ahanmisi.
Northwestern is well rested and should be well prepared under former Princeton coach Bill Carmody. The Wildcats last played on March 2.
Northwestern defeated Minnesota at home, 68-57, in its last game. The Wildcats won despite being outshot, 44.2 to 33.7, from the field by the Gophers.
The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four neutral site games. The Gophers are 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times it has faced an opponent with a winning mark.
3♦ NORTHWESTERN
Bobby Maxwell
Iowa (+7) vs. Michigan St., at Indianapolis
For my comp selection, these two teams split their regular-season matchups with the home team delivering a beating both times. Iowa won by 20 at home and Michigan State followed up with a 19-point win a month later. Today, I’m going with the Hawkeyes who closed the season with some momentum after their regular-season finale upset of Purdue.
Iowa shocked the Boilermakers 67-65 as nine-point home underdogs on Saturday. That win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Hawkeyes and has given them some hope coming into the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan State had a horrendous second-half of the season and closed the regular season with a 70-63 loss at Michigan on Saturday as one-point underdogs. The Spartans are clearly on the bubble for the big dance and they just don’t have the talent to get through this tourney. They might squeak by tonight, but they won’t cover this huge number.
The Spartans are on ATS skids of 4-11-1 against Big Ten teams, 1-5 in neutral site games, 2-8 after a non-cover and 2-7-1 as a favorite.
Iowa has a stingy defense and it will get the job done here tonight. Go grab the points and play the Hawkeyes.
5♦ IOWA
Karl Garrett
Washington State (+5') vs. WASHINGTON - at Los Angeles
The G-Man is heading to the Pac-10 Tournament for Thursday's comp play as I'm going to take the 5 1/2 points with Washington State as the Cougars battle their in-state rival, the Washington Huskies, for the third time this season.
Washington State is in search of its 20th win of the year, and the Cougars have won BOTH regular season meetings already this campaign. They won 87-80 as a 3 1/2-point home dog January 30 and completed the sweep with an 80-69 upset as a 12-point road dog February 27.
The Huskies are really struggling right now, losing three of their final five games.
U-Dub is on a 3-8 spread dive overall their last 11 lined games, and I just don't see them putting away a Washington State team that is looking to solidify an at-large Big Dance bid.
G-Man taking the points in this one.
3♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Chuck O'Brien
UC Santa Barbara (+1') vs. Pacific, at Anaheim, CA
For Thursday’s second of two complimentary college basketball selections – and note that I’m on an 8-4 run with college basketball free plays, including a winner on Stanford-Oregon State OVER the total last night – take U.C. Santa Barbara over Pacific in an opening-round Big West tournament game.
Pacific did sweep the regular-season series from the Gauchos, but that might as well have been two years ago. Because since their 74-68 win at Santa Barbara (as a three-point underdog), the Tigers are just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS. That includes last week’s inexplicable home losses to Cal State Fullerton (82-80 as a 12½-point favorite) and Cal State Northridge (58-54 as an 11-point chalk). Throw in a 97-86 overtime loss at U.C. Irvine as a 4½-point road favorite and Pacific has been upset in each of its last three games.
Like Pacific, UCSB didn’t exactly finish the regular season with a flourish, splitting its last eight games. And the Gauchos were a pointspread disaster down the stretch, covering just three times in their last 13 games. However, they were favored in 12 of those 13 games, laying four points or more 11 times. Today, they’re a slight underdog.
Also, prior to losing twice to Pacific this year, UCSB had won and covered six of the previous eight meetings with the Tigers. And while the Gauchos have covered in five of their last six neutral-site games, Pacific is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 at neutral venues. Finally, UCSB won this tournament a year ago, while Pacific got bounced in the first round, losing 68-61 to Long Beach State as a four-point favorite, making the Tigers 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six conference tourney games.
2♦ U.C. SANTA BARBARA
Derek Mancini,
LA Lakers at MIAMI HEAT (+1')
Heat-backers step away from the ledge. Heat-haters don't go counting your eggs before they've hatched. Instead of making an emotional decision based on whether or not you agree with the superstar trio teaming up in Miami, let's look at this game as objectively as possible.
The first thing we know is that over 80% of the public is backing the Lakers in this spot. I know it, you know it, and the oddsmakers know it. Based on each team's recent play, its no surprise bettors everywhere are fading the Heat. But in reality, what's a 5 game losing streak in the grand scheme of the season? If memory serves me right, didn't the Lakers have a 4-game losing streak back in November? Didn't everyone in the world prognoticate that the Lakers were "done" after that slide, only to see LA regroup and play some of their best ball.
Other than that, don't you think Miami will be highly motivated to end the slide here? A win against the Lakers is not only a measuring stick, but also will help quiet the growing chorus of critics saying Miami cannot beat a good team. The Lakers are obviously good, real good, and come into this game as overvalued as possible, riding an 8-game winning streak. No way the streak ends against struggling Miami, right? WRONG!
Finally, consider the match ups, as the Heat was a team built to play the likes of the Lakers. The last time these two played (Christmas), the Heat trio won their battle at every position. Even Chalmers thorougly outplayed Fisher. So before you go laying point with the Lakers here, consider how they match up against this Heat team. Long story short, we're keeping this play small, but I expect a major bounce back effort from the Heat tonight. Take Miami plus the points over the LA Lakers Thursday.
1♦ MIAMI
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers at MIAMI (+2')
For my comp selection, enough about the Heat and their struggles already. They have lost five games in a row – big deal. There have been many five-game losing streaks in the NBA so why is this one big news? Because they rolled out the red carpet for LeBron James and Chris Bosh in the offseason and labeled themselves the Big Three with Dwyane Wade. This is a talented trio and they have talent in the other spots as well. Tonight, they’ll put a lot of talk to rest with another big win over the Lakers.
Remember how poorly the Lakers played before the All-Star break, losing three straight, including a humiliating 104-99 loss at Cleveland? This team has struggled at times this season and we all remember the Christmas Day contest when the Heat went into Los Angeles and delivered a 96-80 beating as 3 ½-point underdogs.
If you look at Miami’s recent struggles, you’ll see the problem hasn’t been with their defense, except for the 125 points they surrendered in San Antonio. They have failed to reach more than 96 points in any of their last five and their bench has disappeared. Look for that to change today and expect big shots from newly acquired Mike Bibby and guard Eddie House.
The Lakers are on ATS slides of 4-10 against Southeast Division teams and 2-10 on Thursdays. Miami is on positive ATS streaks of 35-14-2 against Pacific Division squads and 5-0 against the Lakers.
Look for a big offensive and defensive effort from the Heat tonight. Grab the points and play Miami.
4♦ MIAMI
Chris Jordan
L.A. Lakers (-2) at MIAMI
I split my free winner yesterday with St. John's and the Bulls.
I've now won 11 of the last 14 comp winners I've released.
Tonight I'm going right to the game everyone wants to see.
Call it my Complimentary Revenge Game of the Year, if you like.
But the Lakers couldn't have asked for a better situation.
Miami is in shambles right now, as the coach should be on his way out, Kleenex brand should be looking to sponsor a Chris Bosh-tissue box night, LeBron James doesn't know whether to shoot the ball or drive with it and Dwayne Wade has no clue what he got himself into by enticing these two to join him in South Beach.
It's gotten bad.
In less than two weeks, Miami has lost five in a row on the wood and seven straight to the books.
It has plummeted from the top of the Eastern Conference to third place, it hasn't won a game, intra-state rival Orlando is on its heels to overtake the third slot and because of Crygate in AmericanAirlines Arena, Wade has stated he refuses to watch the nation's No. 1 television station for sports.
On the other hand, the Lakers look stupendous, and much like the two-time defending champs right now.
The Lakers are officially the league's hottest teams, having won eight straight, five of which have come by double digits. They've also covered seven of those games.
I had a conversation with one of the handicappers on this site yesterday, and told him straight out, whichever team the oddsmakers install the chalk in this game - that's the play we make.
After all, you'd have to wonder why in the hell they would even think about making Miami the chalk if they did, and in my opinion would have been that they were begging you to take a trap play on the Lakers. But, they've rightfully made Los Angeles the slim favorite on the road.
But the Purple and Gold are going to roll in this one, and I mean roll big!
Look for a potential double-digit blowout.
5♦ L.A. LAKERS
Stephen Nover
L.A. Lakers (-2) at MIAMI
By Featured Handicapper
Remember that 90 Dime winner on Marquette two nights ago? Well I'm back at it with something just as strong.
I love this Big 10 clash, my 2nd Biggest Play of the College Season on Iowa and Michigan State, a 90 DIME release in today's opening-round Big 10 Tournament contest.
My network of media sources and contacts, which include professional 'cappers, oddsmakers, players and sportswriters resulting from having worked more than 30 years for daily newspapers and Internet sites in the Midwest, South and West, along with Canada and the Caribbean, all play a role in making me a successful, winning, professional sports analyst.
Let me put my resources to work for you tonight with my 2nd Biggest Play of the Year in College Hoops, my 90 Dime Lock on Iowa and Michigan State, which is scheduled to tip-off at Conseco Fieldhouse at 4:55 p.m. Eastern.
Sooner or later, Miami has to win a big game. But it's asking a lot of a down Heat squad to make that happen in this matchup.
The Lakers haven't lost since All-Star break, winning eight in a row. Kobe Bryant is playing at a high level, Andrew Bynum has stepped up grabbing at least 16 rebounds during each of the past three games and the Lakers have greatly improved their defense.
The Lakers are holding foes to 87 points per game during their winning streak and less than 41 percent from the floor. The Heat are 14-17 when scoring below 100 points.
Los Angeles has covered during eight of its last nine road contests when meeting a foe with a winning home mark.
As hot as the Lakers are, that's how cold the Heat have been. Miami has lost five in a row. The Heat are in disarray now. LeBron James has gone cold in the clutch, the center and point guard spots remain weak areas and the reserves have been horrible.
Miami's bench was outscored, 41-8, by Portland in its latest loss this past Tuesday at home. That was the fifth consecutive time Miami has failed to cover at home.
Bynum and Pau Gasol give the Lakers huge edges in the frontcourt. The Heat have been soft in the middle ever since losing Udonis Haslem early in the season.
The Heat have bullied inferior competition, but failed to step up when playing elite teams. They are 1-9 against teams with a better record than they have.
No doubt the Heat will be going all out in this marquee matchup. But this is a revenge spot for the Lakers. They were upset at home on Christmas Day by Miami.
1♦ L.A. LAKERS
Joel Tyson
L.A. Lakers (-2) at MIAMI
For Thursday's NBA freebie, it's no surprise that I am backing the streaking Lakers against the fragile-as-an-eggshell Heat in Miami.
L.A. has not lost since the All-Star break, standing at 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. Miami on the other hand is currently at def-con 5 panic alert, losing five in a row on the floor and seven straight to the oddsmakers.
Sure, Miami did win in Los Angeles on Christmas Day, but you can assume that loss will only serve to motivate the two-time defending champs to keep the Heat at heel.
Miami's mindset is quite fragile right now, and if they get behind I think it is safe to assume they will fold tent and drop another.
Take the Lakers in this one.
5♦ L.A. LAKERS
Michael Cannon
New York (+6) at DALLAS
Take the Knicks as the road dog against the Mavericks.
Both teams are playing their fourth game in five days so you can cancel out the fatigue factor.
But Dallas is also in somewhat of a lookahead spot with the Lakers coming to town on Saturday.
The Knicks are a solid 20-5 ATS as a road dog and they are 10-3 ATS in the second of back-to-backs.
Dallas has never offered much value as a home chalk and I don’t expect them to cover here against the new look Knicks.
Take the points with New York.
3♦ NEW YORK
Telly
1 of 3 Free Plays Today
Colorado State +3
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cincinnati +2
This is a good spot for the Bearcats. In fact, plays on neutral court teams looking to avenge a loss to an opponent in which they were held to less than 60 points, if they are coming off a win over a conference rival away from home, are an impressive 40-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. As South Florida found out yesterday, the Bearcats have not been a team to mess with on a neutral court. After all, the Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. The Irish are extremely reliant on the three-point shot, and that will not bode well for them this evening against one of the best defensive teams in the land. The Bearcats have held their last three opponents under 39 percent shooting, and they haven't given up more than 67 points in their last four games. Look for Cincy to pull off the upset behind a superb defensive performance.
Charlie Scott
Marquette vs. Louisville
Play: Under 141.5
This Total looks a little high in the grind it out Big East. I've noticed that Marquette starts out with a fast pace and then moves to a much slower pace in the second half. Both teams play good half court defense & rebound and can struggle at times on offense.
Matt Fargo
Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M +3
Missouri proved it could win away from home last night as it defeated Texas Tech but it was far from convincing. The Tigers won by four points and after losing their final three regular season games, this doesn't exactly put a whole ton of confidence behind them. Missouri is now 6-8 away from this season and while four wins have come on a neutral floor, one was last night and two other came against LaSalle and Wyoming. After starting the season 14-1, this is a team limping into the finish. The Aggies are ranked and had a bye into the second round yet are getting a fair number of points, being the only one of the top four seeds that is an underdog today. The Aggies lost to Baylor and Kansas but rebounded with an easy home win over Texas Tech in their season finale to provide some momentum heading into the postseason. Texas A&M performed pretty well on the road as it was 8-5 outside of College Station to making a run and attaining a higher seed is a definite possibility. The Aggies won the first meeting this season at home in overtime in an absolute thriller. That provides the Tigers with revenge motivation as that was a tough defeat but Texas A&M can have just as much as after that, it went on to lose four of its next five games. It also wants another shot at Texas as a potential semifinal matchup looms against the Longhorns, who beat Texas A&M by 21 and 20 points during the regular season. This means more motivation and not a lookahead spot. Texas A&M is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games when the line is between +3 and -3 while going 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. The Aggies are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games coming off three straight contests where both teams scored 70 points or less. Missouri meanwhile is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games away from home after scoring 85 or more points while going 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 3* Texas A&M Aggies
Black Widow
1* on Washington State +6
Washington suspended Venoy Overton from the Pac-10 tournament while Washington State lifted Klay Thompson's one-game penalty, clearing him to play in the quarterfinal game against the defending champion Huskies. And Washington might also lose senior co-captain Justin Holiday, who suffered a concussion Saturday and has been unable to practice this week. Meanwhile, Washington State regains the services of Reggie Moore. An ankle injury forced the sophomore point guard to sit out Saturday, but he practiced Wednesday and is ready to return. So Washington is likely down 2 starters and 17.3 points/game, while Washington State gets back 2 starters and 30.9 points/game between them. There's no way in hell the Huskies should be this heavily favored tonight given the circumstances. WSU won both regular season meetings with Washington, topping the Huskies 87-80 at home and 80-69 on the road. The Huskies will have a hard time avoiding getting swept by the Cougars, let alone trying to beat them by more than 6 points to cover this ridiculous spread. The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Cougars are a bubble team right now so they will have no letdown here after already beating the Huskies twice this year. Washington is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Take Washington State and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tennessee -6
Motivated by a loss to Kentucky in their regular-season finale and an upset loss at Arkansas earlier this season, expect the Vols to come out strong tonight. Plays on favorites (TENNESSEE) looking to avenge a same season loss to an opponent and off a home loss against a conference rival, are an extremely profitable 141-86 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, Arkansas is 1-9 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. The Razorbacks are losing these contests by an average score of 73.0 to 61.8. Lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Vanderbilt -13
Motivated by a pair of losses to Kentucky and Florida to close out the season, expect the Commodores to waste no time jumping all over an LSU squad they defeated by 21 points during the regular season. LSU is just 2-8 ATS after 15-plus games this season when matched up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). The Tigers have lost to these foes by an average of 16.5 points. Take Vandy.
Ben Burns
Ottawa Senators @ Florida Panthers
PICK: Florida Panthers
After enduring a horrific stretch, the Senators have started to play a little better recently. Clearly, the trade for Anderson has helped. That said, they've still got one of the worst records of any team in the league and they're still only "playing for pride." Now that they're no longer "desperate" for a victory, getting up for a road game vs. the Panthers, a team they've dominated, may not be all that easy.
The Panthers shouldn't have any problems finding motivation. That's because they've lost both this season's meetings with the Sens and should be hungry to serve up some "payback."
The Panthers bring some momentum into this evening's contest, as they defeated defending champion Chicago last time out. That victory prompted David Booth, who has now scored in three straight games, to comment: "We can beat any team in this league, it seems like, or play with any team..."
The Panthers have been profitable when playing with "revenge," earning +16.2 net games vs. the moneyline, in that role the past few seasons. Consider Florida.
Larry Ness
Marshall @ UTEP
PICK: UTEP -5
UTEP got an at-large bid last year, something the Miners KNOW won't be the case this year. The good news is, they get to host TY's C-USA tourney. Will that be the edge they need? UTEP gets Marshall tonight, after the Thundering Herd beat Houston last night 976-87, despite the Cougars connecting on 57.7% of their shots. Marshall has a terrific guard duo in Pitts (16.3-4.7 APG) and Kane (15.3-5.5-3.5) and both were outstanding last night. Pitts had 28 points with 10 assists while Kane added 21 points and 10 rebounds. A pair of 6-6 players are the best frontcourt guys for Marshall, Bains (12.7-6.7) and Thomas (9.1-4.5). Here's the problem in this matchup for Marshall. UTEP has a trio of perimeter players (all seniors) in Culpepper (19.5), Polk (11.3) and C-USA's most versatile player, the 6-7 Stone (8,.8-7.4-5.1), matching up very favorably with Marshall’s duo. Up front, UTEP has a size advantage with the 6-11 Britten (7.5-2.3) and the 6-10 Bohannon 95.5-4.9) plus the team's best frontcourt player is the 6-7 Williams (10.7-4.5). UTEP went to the CBI championship round back in 2009 and surely doesn't want a return trip to one of the lesser tourneys this year. Last year's NCAA trip was the school's 17th (remember this program won it all back in 1966, as Texas Western) and getting to play here at the aptly named Don Haskins Center, gives this year's Miners a real good chance at making it 18 NCAA appearances come Saturday. First things first. Miners put away the Thundering Herd in this one. Lay the points.