Craig Trapp
Auburn vs. Florida
Play: Florida -5.5
Sometimes a team plays great but does not get the results in wins and losses. That is definitely the case for this UF team. Florida played UK very well at Rupp plus had Vandy beat on the road before just falling apart in last few minutes. Auburn just has not had that same luck as Florida and away from home they just are not good. Florida can play 8 guys and will win this one in the trenches, dominating the boards and getting all the lose balls. Easy ATS winner in this SEC tourney game.
Hollywood Sports
Oregon St. at Washington
Prediction: Oregon St.
Oregon State (14-16) will be a tough "out" against an underachieving Washington Huskies team in the Pac-10 Conference Tournament tonight. The Beavers hosted the Huskies to close out the regular season and lost 82-70 as a 4-point underdog. Oregon State should play better in this game as they have covered five of their last six games coming off a loss. Oregon State plays a tough 1-3-1 defense that holds their opponents to just 61.1 PPG on 42.5% shooting. Don't be surprised if coach Craig Robinson saved some special wrinkles to that defense for this expected rematch in the conference tournament. This challenging defensive style of play has helped the Beavers cover ten of their last eleven games as an underdog in the 7-12.5 point range. And the Beavers typically overachieve against good competition as they have covered 22 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Washington (21-9) has struggled on the road this season as they are just 4-7 overall. The preseason favorite to win the Pac-10, the Huskies have often disappointed this season. Furthermore, Washington has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last ten games played on neutral courts. They seem primed for a letdown in this immediate rematch after managing to win (and cover) on the road. Take the points with Oregon State.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Penn State @ Minnesota
PICK: Penn State +6.5
The Nittany Lions finished last in the Big Ten but they WERE NOT the worst team in the league. In fact, they are better than both Indiana and Iowa. We're not so sure they aren't better than Michigan right now also. Of their 15 Big Ten losses, 10 came by single digits. Seven of those losses came by 6 point or less. Of their 19 overall losses on the season, 10 have come by 5 points or less or in overtime. They were in most games but simply couldn't pull them off late. This team has talent and experience. Remember, they WON the post season NIT tournament a year ago and have a number of key pieces back from that team including Talor Battle who averages 19 PPG. He can carry a team on his back when he gets hot.
Down the stretch, PSU was very impressive. They were 3-3 over their last 6 games, however their 3 losses were vs. the three teams that tied for 1st place in the Big Ten. Not only that, all were very close. They lost @ Ohio State by 8, @ Michigan State by 2 and then lost at home on Sunday to Purdue by just 4 points. You hate to say those were impressive losses but they really were. Their three wins during that stretch came @ Northwestern by 11, @ Michigan by 4 and at home vs. Northwestern by 19. This PSU team was "this close" all year long to breaking out in the Big Ten and they finally did so over their last 6 games. Now they have momentum and confidence heading into the Big Ten Tourney. Head coach Ed DeChellis agrees. "We've played better basketball over the last three weeks than we have all year."
Minnesota is now off the bubble and they only way they can possibly get back on is to make a run to the finals. They may even have to win the tourney to have a chance at the Dance. The Gophs are WAY too inconsistent to be counted on as a favorite of this sort. Just when you think they are on their way (winning @ Illinois by 2), they rear their ugly heads (losing by 28 @ Michigan). They can't be trusted. In fact, their two games vs. PSU this year both went down to the wire. While they won both by 5 & 2 points, they failed to cover either game. No reason to think that will change here as the Lions are playing much better than they were during either of those two match ups with the Gophs.
PSU thrives in the underdog role as they are clearly under valued. They have an 11-4 ATS mark as a puppy this year. Not only that, they have the ingredients to pull an upset as they are very solid on the boards (2nd in the Big Ten in rebounding margin), they shoot FT's pretty well (over 70% this season) and they have a player that can win a game nearly by himself (Talor Battle). We'll take the points here and call for PSU to win this game outright.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Ottawa Senators @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Calgary Flames -135
Although I expect this game to be a tightly contested affair, for a number of different reasons I believe the decently valued Flames will do just enough in this one to escape with a home victory over the visiting Senators:
Following the Olympic break, the Sens went 0-2-1, but skated away with a convincing 4-1 drubbing of the Oilers on Tuesday.
Ottawa's road-trip ends on Saturday in Vancouver, where the Canucks will be playing their first home game after a marathon 14-game road trip, sandwiched around the Olympics; the Sens could be caught "looking ahead" to that tough game.
Ottawa will also have to deal with the "revenge factor", as they won at home against the Flames on Feb 9th; note though that Ottawa has lost three straight at the Saddledome.
Brian Elliot will be back in net and faces a resurgent Calgary team thats averaged 4.7 goals during its three-game win streak.
Keep in mind that Ottawa is just 2-4 its last six overall; also just 1-5 its last six vs. Calgary.
On the other side of the rink: With their 4-2 road victory over the Wings (a game in which I recommended Calgary), the Flames moved a point ahead of Detroit for the eighth and final playoff spot.
Jarome Iginla has been on fire of late; four goals and three assists during the current win streak.
Miikka Kiprusoff was sharp in Detroit, will be back in net tonight, and needs just one victory to reach 30 for the fifth consecutive season
No doubt Calgary has looked sharp of late; 4-1 its last five.
Bottom line: The Flames have also reserved their best play for non-conference tilts; 9-5 (+3.6 units) when playing against teams from the Eastern conference.
Although Ottawa is great in many ATS statistical categories, this is in fact one spot that its struggled in mightily all year; a poor 8-12 (-5.6 units) after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest; which of course means this team is highly susceptible to a letdown after a decent performance.
Sweeping in Alberta is a tough order for any team, and like I said off the top, I expect this to be a close game, but in the end I expect CALGARY to prevail.
JIM FEIST
ATLANTA HAWKS / WASHINGTON WIZARDS
TAKE UNDER
The Wizards are playing well for Coach Flip Saunders, who is holding it all together in a season of upheaval. Most impressive is the defense, allowing only 4 of the last 13 opponents to top 100 points. Washington won as a +13 dog at Orlando allowing just 91 points to an explosive Orlando offense, nearly won at Boston with a great defensive effort, and beat the Nuggets as a +6 dog allowing 97 points. Washington is on a 14-3 run under the total. The total was over 200 when these teams last met, and Atlanta won 94-82, going under by 27 points. Play the Hawks/Wizards Under the total.
EZWINNERS
Georgia Tech -4
North Carolina has had one of the worst seasons ever for a Tar Heels team when you consider the pre season expectations and talent level that is on this team. I don't expect UNC to magically find a solution to everything that is wrong with their team in the ACC tournament. The Yellow Jackets have also underachieved this season. Georgia Tech's roster features three McDonald's All-Americans and a nice blend of veterans and freshmen. At 19-11 on the season and 7-9 in the ACC conference Tech is sitting right on the NCAA tournament bubble. Two of Georgia Tech's seven conference wins came against the Tar Heels, and I expect the Jackets to beat the defending national champs for a third time to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Lay the points.
Vernon Croy
1* Take Northwestern
This pick falls into one of my top NCAAB systems and the Hoosiers are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after a win. The Hoosiers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games and they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing a team that has a winning record. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after a loss and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. The Hoosiers are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against Northwestern and Indiana is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 tournament games. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss against a conference rival and the Hoosiers have been out-scored by an average of 12.5 ppg on the road this season.
James Patrick Sports
Penn State vs. Minnesota
The Nittany Lions were just (3-15) in Big Ten play during the regular season but they were a smoking (9-2) ATS on the road. Penn State gets the call as Thursday action in the Big Ten Conference Tournament tips-off.
Sac Lawson
Houston +6.5 vs Memphis
These teams split the season series, and the final scores were very similar. In the first matchup Memphis shot 61% from the field, and that, by itself was the difference in the game. The second matchup was a more even shooting performance, however Houston got to the free throw line enough to hold onto the margin they held at halftime. Honestly, if there is two things we can take away from these matchups it's this... First, Wesley Weatherspoon fouled out of both contests. The pressure that's put on him having to guard Aubrey Coleman has simply been too much. Second, these teams are damn even.
The key for Houston is getting to the free throw line, flat out. This team succeeds when they get to the line, and they fail when they don't. It's not just about the free points, it's about the mentality. In games where they attack the paint, they do 10x better. And what i've seen from the two previous games between these teams is that Memphis is a team that Houston feels they can attack. Houston shot nearly 60 free throws in the two games combined, and they fouled out Wesley Weatherspoon both times which is a key in slowing down that Memphis offense.
Size wise these teams are similar, they crash the boards equally... the kicker for me is guard play. Houston seriously has 2 of the best scoring guards in the nation in Lewis and Coleman. They've had a hard time picking this team up to the level that was expected of them early in the season, but these are veteran guys and I love the intensity they showed yesterday against ECU. I have a strong feeling that these two are going to heat up at the right time and we'll see Houston make a hard run at that conference title. I expect to see Houston win this game outright. If they get to the line, put pressure on Weatherspoon and company, they've got a fantastic opportunity to shock some folks.
N Mex St -4.5 vs San Jose St.
NMSU and SJSU split the season series this year, which is actually a bit of a surprise if you're an NMSU fan. Fact is though, San Jose came out and shot 57% and 12-20 from three point land on their home floor. Anytime a team shoots that well, they're hard to beat. It's actually impressive that NMSU stayed so close. The key to that game was simply that it was played in San Jose. This Spartans team is 100% home dominant, and road lethargic. They score 10 points more at home than on the road, and give up 5 points less at home than on the road. That's a 15 point home court swing based on the raw numbers.
Fact is, both these teams can score and score in bunches. They both play effective offensively, and both play mediocre on defense (with a slight edge going to NMSU). The key for me is quite simple. I'd much rather trust a team that has proven they can have some road success, than back a team who only has good offensive numbers because of their inflated numbers at home. NMSU comes into this game limping after two losses to end the season against Nevada and Utah State. I see them being a bit hungry today, looking to get back on the right track, and looking to make a statement and play their way into the tournament. NMSU is 8-7 ATS on the road this year, and San Jose is just 4-9.
Don't get twisted up by looking into stats here, SJSU has some inflated numbers across the board, but they're all a result of great play on their home floor. They absolutely cannot be trusted tonight, especially in a situation where they will run with NMSU and play right into their hands in terms of tempo. Take NMSU for 1 unit.
Evan Altemus
GEORGETOWN +6
Syracuse's head coach Jim Boeheim knows that he has a team capable of winning a national championship. Winning the Big East tournament is very emotionally and physically draining and affects teams into the NCAA Tournament. Also, Syracuse really has nothing to prove because they are guaranteed a #1 seed in the tournament as well. Georgetown came out with a focused effort against South Florida, and I expect them to come with alot of intensity to avenge the two losses to the Orange this season. Syracuse used an outstanding shooting performance to beat the Hoyas by 4 points earlier this season, but I don't expect them to shoot that well in this game. Look for an inspired effort from Georgetown, while the Syracuse players and coaches really could care less about this game. Don't be surprised if the Hoyas win this game outright.
John Ryan
North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
Play: North Carolina +3.5
3* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Georgia Tech set to start at 7:00 EST and is an ACC opening round matchup. This is the Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and we wold not be surprised at all to see an upset. Pride is always a very big part of any defending Champion and we believe it will be seen in full force in this game. GT defense has been horrible the past two games yielding 55% shooting to Clemson and 51% shooting to V-tech. UNC has favorable offensive matchups to exploit and we feel strongly that UNC will have a very big game. Based on the model projections rebounding will be nearly equal, but GT is just 1-5 ATS this season and 8-18 ATS the past 3 seasons when final game rebounding stats are +-3. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams as a dog off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points and is a marginal team winning team between 51% to 60% and playing a winning team. Heart of the Champion comes through today. Take UNC.
BIG AL
Iowa @ Michigan
PICK: Michigan -8
On Thursday, Michigan falls into a Big 10 system that's cashed 21 of 22 in the post-season since 1990. What we want to do is play on any Big 10 Conference team with a win percentage between .333 and .534, if it lost by 8+ points its previous game. And this system's only ATS loss was by a half-point (Northwestern -2.5 vs. Michigan on 3/10/2005). With U-M in off a 16-point loss at Michigan State, and coming in with a .466 win percentage, we'll look for John Beilein's men to rebound with a blowout of Iowa today.
MATT FARGO
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech
PICK: Georgia Tech -3.5
Georgia Tech is firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Yellow Jackets are in according to the early projections and I do find it pretty hard to believe that is the case. They are 7-9 in the ACC and as far as I am concerned, any team with a losing conference record should not even be considered for an NCAA Tournament bid, no matter how tough the conference may be. That being said, I think Georgia Tech is a solid team still but it needs to do some work in the ACC Tournament in my opinion. A loss here against North Carolina, who is top of the list in season disappointments, would realistically end the NCAA Tournament talk and give the chance for a more deserving team like Seton Hall or Mississippi a chance to go dancing. For this reason, I like Georgia Tech here and the possibility of a small future run. Desperate teams can be hit or miss when it comes to must win games but the talent of this Yellow Jackets team indicates that they can get the job done. Part of the recent problems for Georgia Tech has been its three-point shooting defense. Clemson and Virginia Tech were able to go off on the Yellow Jackets and over the last four games, they have allowed 45.5 percent shooting from long range (40-88). After not allowing an opponent to shoot 50 percent in its first 28 games, Georgia Tech allowed more than 50 percent shooting in its final two regular-season games against those aforementioned opponents. A lot of that can be considered just facing a hot team at the wrong time as this team is built on defense and it is unlikely that all of a sudden they have forgotten to defend. They are still is tied for third in the ACC at field-goal percentage defense, allowing 38.4 percent from the floor. Now they get to face North Carolina whose offense is no where to be found. The Tar Heels are averaging 66 ppg on 39.1 percent shooting including 31.3 percent from long range over their last five games. They scored 50 points in their regular season finale against Duke which was a season low. The Tar Heels have not scored 80 points in a game since December 30th against Albany when they tallied 87 points. This is a stretch of 17 consecutive games and the previous long such stretch in the Roy Williams era was a five-game streak in 2003-04. This year was the first in the history of the North Carolina program that it failed to reach 80 points in any ACC game. Georgia Tech has suffered some tough losses this season as three ACC setbacks came by two points and all of those came on the road so a couple breaks and the Yellow Jackets would be a lot better off right now. Georgia Tech won the first meeting in Chapel Hill and that was considered a big upset at the time. We know different now and Georgia Tech proved to be the better team again, winning the rematch at home by 17 points. The NCAA Tournament hopes remain alive after tonight. 3* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Nelly
Miami, FL + over Wake Forest
Wake Forest is a frustrating team to watch as the talent on this squad is obvious but this has not been a team that has played with consistency. The Demon Deacons have done enough to be included in the NCAA tournament field although a late season four-game losing streak raised some serious questions. In a game that could have gone either way, Wake Forest pulled off a five-point win at home against Clemson to close the regular season but certainly all has not been fixed for this squad. These teams split in the regular season with the home team winning both contests but Miami won the rebounding battle in both games and was hurt by a by a big free throw advantage for the Deacons in both of those games. Miami has been a very solid defensive team on the season, holding foes to just 64 points per game and the Hurricanes could easily have a much stronger ACC record, as eight of the last nine losses all came by single-digits. In non-conference action Miami beat a few solid teams taking out Minnesota and South Carolina and in conference play this team was competitive despite the poor overall results. This is a chance at redemption for the Hurricanes and Wake Forest is a team that had four losses and a narrow OT win in the final five road games of the season. Wake Forest won four games in overtime this season so this is a team that easily could have had a much worse record on the year. Miami had a very poor showing in last year's ACC tournament so this will be a key game for the team while Wake Forest likely feels comfortable with its potential spot.
Sean Murphy
Pittsburgh @ Carolina
PICK: Carolina +1.5
The Pittsburgh Penguins have played outstanding hockey since the end of the Olympic break, notching four straight victories. However, it's worth noting that three of those four wins came by a single goal, and that they trailed in the second period in each of their last three contests.
The Carolina Hurricanes are coming off a hard fought 4-3 overtime loss in Washington last night. They shouldn't be too deflated, after all, it's no small accomplishment to earn a point against the league's best team.
The focus should be there for the Canes tonight after dropping two of three games on their road trip. They're still a positive 3-2 since the break, winning their only game here at home, 4-1 against a quality opponent in the Ottawa Senators. In fact, the Canes have won seven straight here at home dating back to January 24th.
The Penguins find themselves in a major look-ahead spot tonight with a trip to New Jersey on deck tomorrow night. They're 0-4 against the Devils this season, outscored by a wide 14-2 margin. It would be easy for the Pens to look past the Canes tonight with the Devils up next.
While the Penguins are one of the league's best teams, it's worth pointing out that they have lost 13 times on the road this season, and have won by multiple goals away from home only once in their last seven tries.
This has been a tightly contested series so far this season, with both teams recording a win on enemy ice, and both of those games being decided by a single goal. With that in mind, I'll grab the puck-and-a-half as insurance with the Canes. If you're a straight underdog bettor, I certainly wouldn't talk you out of a moneyline play either. Take Carolina +1.5 goals