Larry Ness
Auburn @ Florida
PICK: Florida -5
The Gators won back-to-back national titles in 2006 and '07 but have been regulated to the NIT the last two seasons. Calathes (17.2-5.3-6.4) left after his sophomore year and Hodge, a four-year player (a reserve on the two title teams and a starter the last two seasons), have both been missed this season. The Gators enter this game 20-11 (9-7) and Donovan knows that a minimum of two wins in the SEC tourney will be needed for at-large consideration (SEC doesn't figure to get more than four bids with Kentucky, Tennessee and Vandy being 'locks'). Freshman guard Boynton (13.5) is the team's leading scorer, joined in the backcourt by Walker (12.6-5.0 APG). Up front, the 6-9 Parsons (11.9-6.8) and Tyus (11.8-6.9) returned to play well this year with 6-10 Georgetown transfer Macklin (10.6-5.6) giving the Gators a pretty solid frontcourt. This frontcourt has a big advantage over Auburn, which features just a mediocre 6-10 center in Knox (8.8-3.9) plus a solid small forward in Hargrove (123.9-6.9). The Tigers' strength is its senior duo of guards, Reed (16.1-4.3 APG) and Waller (15.9), who are joined on the perimeter by sophomore Sullivan (12.2). Florida beat Auburn 78-70 in Gainesville on Feb 18 (lone meeting this year) and should be able to best the Tigers again without too much trouble. Donovan's back-to-back titles were impressive but he's got to start winning games like this to get his program back in the Big Dance and get people back talking about him. A win here sets up a likely "elimination game" with Mississippi State tomorrow. However, first things first. Lay the points with Florida.
Timothy Black
Marquette vs. Villanova
Play: Marquette +4½
Villanova has beaten Marquette by more than 2 points just one time in the last 6 meetings over the last 3 years. The Golden Eagles will play the Wildcats tough in this one but 'Nova pulls out a close one in the end.
Matt Rivers
Play Penn State plus the points.
They are getting six-points at Minnesota. Here is why Rivers loves them:
Overall it was a very disappointing season for the Nittany Lions as the 11-19 overall record and porous 3-15 mark in the Big Ten indicate. Ed Dechellis had a squad that probably should have been better than that but the regular season ended on a bit of an upswing and this team is pretty darn competitive right now.
Talor Battle is a really solid player and a guy that can fill it up and the Nittany’s come into this thing having covered three straight and five of the last six. Penn State also won outright at both Northwestern and Michigan and also swept the Wildcats with that win at home at the end of February. In the regular season finale PSU rallied late and covered at home against Purdue.
Tubby Smith’s Golden Gophers also had a far from overachieving season. At times Minnesota picked up their play behind Westbrook and Hoffarber and looked like an NCAA tournament type team but a lot of other times they had head scratchingly poor results.
UM also had a ton of off the court issues this season that they really could not ever fully recover from. Like Penn State, Minnesota did improve at the end of the season in winning four of their last six and covering five of those contests. The Gophers still are on that bubble and have to have a good showing in at least a few games here in Indianapolis so there is some motivation there for sure.
But the Nittany’s are a team that will be a pain in the butt by hanging around and staying close enough to get within that number. Minnesota probably will win this game as they do have too much on the line but I like DeChellis and his team and think they hang around enough to grab that cash.
Derek Mancini
Chicago at ORLANDO (-12')
This is a bad match up, at a bad time for the Bulls, who come into this game playing some of the worst interior defense in the NBA. Opponents are shooting 51% and scoring 115 ppg over Chicago's L5 games, and it starts in the middle. Brad Miller is a serviceable center on the offensive end, but any hope of him stopping Dwight Howard (or anyone for that matter) is badly misplaced.
When Howard is given free reign in the middle, this Magic offense shines, as passing lanes become as wide as freeways, and open shots are, well, even more open! The last time these two teams played, Howard had 18 points,14 rebounds, and a block in 25 minutes of play... Like I said: give him free reign, and this offense will blow away the Bulls yet again.
To lose 5 games in a row, four of which were at home, is not just embarassing, but it shows just how fragile this Bulls defense is without Joakim Noah. People love to make fun of the big-haired garbage man, but no one else on this roster is willing to do what he does: hustle and play defense. Bulls are 0-5 ATS since he last played, and a match up against one of the most dominant bigmen of our decade is only going to further expose this Chicago team. The 3's will be raining from Amway Arena tonight - you can count on that! Lay the points with Orlando in this contest.
3♦ ORLANDO
NC State (+7') vs Clemson at Greensboro, N.C.
Too many point to lay in this spot, especially with NC State showing some real fight in winning 3 of their L4 games to finish the regular season. A little under 2 months ago, we saw these two schools meet in Raleigh, and Clemson got the 73-70 win (but Wolfpack cover). Since then, the only thing that's changed is the Wolfpack have rediscovering their defense (63 ppg L3 games), and that's the main reason we're backing them tonight.
Love this match up upfront for the Wolfpack, who boast two excellent bigmen in Smith and Horner. Its no secret F Dennis Horner was invisible in their last meeting, and coming off a nice game against Boston College, he can make all the difference tonight. Trevor Booker manhandled the Pack's frontline in that January match up, but he's not nearly as consistent on the road, and he'll be facing a much more focused NC State defense this time around.
Anyone who follows the Wolfpack, knows they need Javier Gonzalez to stay on the floor for them to have success, because he's their best distributor (by far). It says a lot that NC State was able to stay within 3 points of the Tigers in their last meeting, despite Gonzalez playing only 10 minutes... The good news is it appears Gonzalez has learned his lesson, and I project will be a major factor in this contest. It's NC State plus the points here, as their new found defensive intensity (and smarter overall play) are the difference. Doesn't hurt they're playing in Greensboro either (a little over an hour away from campus)!
2♦ N.C. STATE
Jeff Benton
Another free-play winner Wednesday as Iowa State (5♦) came through with the spread-cover against Texas. I’m now on runs of 36-17-1, 26-11-1, 23-10-1 and 16-7-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Thursday’s conference-tournament freebie, I’ll take Syracuse and lay the points against Georgetown in quarterfinal Big East action.
I’m not buying the notion that all is right with the Hoyas after consecutive blowout wins over Cincinnati (74-47 at home) and South Florida (69-49 in the Big East tournament). Those opponents are mediocre at best, and certainly neither are in Syracuse’s league. Besides, you have to go back to early January for the last time Georgetown won three in a row (Harvard, St. John’s and DePaul), and they didn’t accomplish the feat once in the Big East season. And you have to go back to last December for the last time the Hoyas posted three straight spread-covers.
En route to a 28-3 record and the regular-season Big East title, Syracuse knocked off Georgetown twice. The first was a 73-56 home win as a 5½-point favorite (a game the Orange trailed 14-0 three minutes in) and the second was a 75-71 road win (a game the Orange led by 23 in the middle of the second half). The key to both wins? Syracuse’s stout defense on Hoyas star Greg Monroe, who had a combined 28 points, 13 rebounds and 11 turnovers in the two contests.
Syracuse has now won three straight against Georgetown and six of the last eight, going 7-1 ATS along the way. The Orange, who had the third-best pointspread record in the nation (19-8 ATS), are 20-8 ATS going back to last year, including 19-7 ATS in Big East play, with the Hoyas have failed to cover in 25 of their last 37 overall and they’re just 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a spread-cover (again, Georgetown hasn’t had three straight covers in more than 15 months!).
6♦ SYRACUSE
Scott Delaney
Rice at Tulsa
Before we get to the complimentary winner, be sure you read about the BIGGEST RELEASE OF THE SEASON, my 60 Dime WAC Game of the Year taking place in the conference tourney. Yesterday I nailed my 60 Dime Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State. Today I have something just as strong.
I was 5-1 in the NFL with my 60 Dimers, en route to being the No. 1 rated NFL handicapper at this site. Today I nail another 60 Dimer in College Hoops.
On the heels of Tulsa yesterday in this spot, your FREE PLAY WINNER is on Georgia Tech over North Carolina.
It isn’t often you get a chance at beating the University of North Carolina basketball team three times in one season. At roughly 9 p.m. eastern, the Yellow Jackets will be able to say they did.
They might be the defending national champs, but the Tar Heels are a much different group this season, as graduation and the NBA draft left the cupboard bare. As a freshman-laden team, I think they’ll be bowing out early, and it’s not going to be pretty.
And there is more than a ‘beat North Carolina’ chant taking place in the Georgia Tech locker room. The Yellow Jackets’ performance this week could very well determine which postseason tournament it will play in next. And because North Carolina is a big reason opinions of the ACC have sunk as low as they have, I would have to think the Selection Committee expects the Jackets to score a blowout.
Looking at some of the betting numbers, the Heels are mired in ATS slides of 7-20 in conference play, 1-9 as the installed underdog, 0-7 when catching points in this range and 5-14 overall. On the flipside, the Jackets are on ATS runs of 4-1 on neutral courts and 4-1 the last five meetings.
2♦ GEORGIA TECH
Craig Davis
Tonight's free plays are on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA.
Georgia Tech is an easy play... but this is more against North Carolina than FOR the Yellow Jackets. The Tar Heels don't care about this season anymore. To be honest, they can't get this season over soon enough. Not a single one of these players wants to be in this game as they've already mentally prepared for the off-season and what next year brings. Not only has this team had an inordinate amount of injuries, they've also given away too many turnovers and they don't hit free throws at the rate they need to in order to close games out. Roy Williams calls this one of the worst coaching jobs of his career... I can't disagree. But it doesn't all fall on him. He lost a lot of players from last year's championship squad and has tried to rebuild with young players through several of those injuries. Tough task at hand tonight and I just don't think they have the horses to keep up. I like G. Tech by 8.
3♦ GEORGIA TECH
Atlanta needs a game like tonight's matchup with Washington to get back on track. How does seven straight wins over the Wizards sound? Well, that's exactly what they've delivered in their last seven meetings with their Eastern Conference rival and I expect nothing short of another double digit win tonight. Only two of their seven wins vs. Washington haven't been by more than 7 points and with their recent losing streak combined with the fact they've burned their backers in three straight and six of eight, I have no choice but to think we get a new Hawks team tonight. Although I'm quite certain they wish they played in the Atlantic Division, they still have a legitimate shot of winning their own division if they can go on a run and hope that Orlando's tough schedule will allow them to sneak to the top. Josh Smith is playing very good basketball on both sides and Mike Bibby is starting to limit his turnovers. Now that the newness of not playing with Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood has worn off, Washington is back to playing below-average basketball. Take the Hawks minus the number.
2♦ ATLANTA
Tony George
Oklahoma St. +5.5
Damn they looked good last night and are not fatigued after pounding in state rival OU in Kansas City, a game I watched in person! K State dropped their last 2 games and I like the dog here in this one. Short on time as I head out to the Kansas and Tech Game in KC today, as I attend these games. This will be a nail biter and I am grabbing the points with a deep team, and the ONLY team in the Big 12 who beat Kansas, something K State failed to do twice this season.
Brett Atkins
Today's college hoops winner comes from the ACC tournament as I go with Wake Forest to get the win and cover over Miami in the opening round.
Wake ended the regular season with a 70-65 win over Clemson as a one-point home favorite. They have cashed in seven of their last nine games and they’ve got some players that have been through this before and who know how to win ACC tourney games.
The pair of Ishmael Smith and Aminu Al-Farouq can be deadly. Throw in Chas McFarland and if they all get it going, this one could be a blowout. Smith is the leader and he will do whatever it takes to win while the other two dominate the boards. They beat Miami 62-53 as a six-point chalk back on Feb. 2 with Smith controlling things with 11 points, nine boards and six assists.
The Hurricanes lost five of six down the stretch, including ugly losses to Carolina and N.C. State. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a ‘dog of up to 6 ½ points.
The Demon Deacons are on ATS runs of 4-0 0after a straight-up win, 7-1 against winning teams and 5-1 as a chalk of up to 6 ½ points. Go ahead and lay the chalk as this one finishes as a 10-point Wake victory.
4♦ WAKE FOREST
Jay McNeil
Scored with Butler, an easy winner Tuesday in the Horizon League title game.
Cashed in witih Oregon last night in Pac 10 play.
Today it's Northwestern.
Northwestern wasn’t all that impressive during the Big Ten season, but I can assure you the Wildcats are a dangerous entry. Northwestern beat Notre Dame, Purdue (with Robbie Hummel) and Illinois.
The Wildcats should take advantage of a Hoosiers team that is mired on ATS slides of 5-12 after an ATS win, 2-7 as an underdog, 3-14 after a straight-up win, 3-11 in this series, and 2-7 overall – all in Big 10 play
2♦ NORTHWESTERN
Joel Tyson
11-5 comp play run the last 16 days, as Charlotte comes through on Wednesday.
Miami-Florida comes into Greensboro in a compromised position, as leading scorer and rebounder Dwayne Collins is listed as doubtful for this game with a stress fracture in his leg.
I can't see the 'Canes staying in this game with that big piece of their aresenal missing.
Wake Forest just snapped their 4 game losing streak with a home win over Clemson to close the regular season, and the Demon Deacons are looking to atone for a pair of early ACC tourney exits the last couple of seasons.
The Deacons have won 4 of the last 6 series meetings, and they are 4-1-1 against the spread in those games.
I expect Wake to be moving on with the win and cover on Thursday.
5♦ WAKE FOREST
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +2.41 over MONTREAL
The Canadiens are winning hockey games these days and they have to get credit for winning more games with a lot less talent than a lot of teams in this league. They’ve won four of five since the break and could’ve easily won all five after the Sharks came from behind to win it 3-2. They also returned home from a four-game trip and beat the Lightning 5-3 in its last win, however, Nittymaki was brutal and was pulled after allowing four goals on 13 shots. Now the Habs will play its second game back and they have the Bruins on deck for Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday. So, while the Oilers are banged up and usually lose the bottom line here is that the Canadiens are not good enough to be favored by this much over anyone. They could definitely be flat tonight and even at their very best they’re a beatable team. Any team +2.41 over Montreal is worthy of a bet. Huge overlay. Play: Edmonton +2.41 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.19 over TORONTO
The Leafs are fighting hard and they’re playing a whole lot better than anyone expected since they dealt all of its scorers. However, they’re still the second best team on the ice here and they’re going to lose a lot more games the rest of the way. They beat a slumping Bruins team and they beat a Sens team that was completely flat out of the gate and suddenly the Leafs are getting way more credit than they should be. Enter the Lightning, a team that is playing damn good except for in between the pipes, where Antero Nittymaki has been pulled three times in the last five games. The good news, however, is that the Lightning are scoring a lot more goals and in fact, they’re averaging 3.6 goals a game over its last seven. The good news is that Mike Smith gets the call in net tonight and hopefully he can regain the form that made him one of the best in the league prior to this year. If the Lightning get a half decent performance in net from Smith, they’ll win this game. If they don’t, they still might win. Play: Tampa Bay +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.83 over COLORADO
Without doubt, one of the biggest overlays since the break, as the Panthers are playing great hockey and it’s no fluke. They beat the Wild in its last game 3-2 in OT but that is perhaps the most flattering score of the year to the losing squad. The Panthers were swarming them all game, they completely dominated play and in fact, they held the Wild to a lousy nine shots on net through three periods. They’ve now won three in a row over Philly, Carolina and Minnesota and have outscored the opposition 14-7 over that span. They usually get great goaltending from Tomas Vokoun and while the Av’s have been so tough to beat this year, they’re simply not playing so hot right now. They blew a 3-0 lead over Vancouver in its last game and lost 6-4. The Av’s only have two wins over its last six games and things absolutely do not get any easier here. The Panthers are playing too good to ignore at this price and there is no doubt they have a great chance to win. Play: Florida +1.83 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa +1.33 over CALGARY
Ya’all remember the Sens, don’t ya? This is the team that very recently won 11 in a row and 13 of 14 games and looked near flawless in the process. Not much has changed since then in terms of personnel but a couple of losses have folks looking elsewhere. This is still a very tough team to beat with a whole slew of gritty and determined players and an outstanding defense. They lost three straight out of the gate after the break and even though they only beat Edmonton in its last, a win is a win and we’ve all seen what this Sens squad is capable of doing when they have confidence. A single win will do that to a club’s psyche. The Flames are warm at the moment with three straight wins over Minnesota, New Jersey and Detroit and that’s nice it really is but so what. The Wings have been getting beat by everyone this year, the Devils have been getting beat by everyone over the past six weeks and the Wild, well, they’re about as average as they come. Don’t get me wrong, the Calgary Maple Leafs are playing well but when these two teams hook up and you can take back +1.33 on the Senators, the recommendation is to take it because the Sens will beat Calgary more times than they lose to them simply because they’re the better team and it might not be close. Play: Ottawa +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Nashville +2.32 over SAN JOSE
With all due respect to the Panthers, this might be the biggest overlay since the break. The last five games these two have played against one another have all been decided by a single goal and that includes three games this season. The Sharks have won two of the three but all three could’ve gone either way and this one should be no different. The Preds know this team well and they play them as tough as anyone. They also have an edge in net with Dan Ellis over Evgeni Nabokov, as Nabokov is a lot more prone to soft goals. Furthermore, the Sharks are just 3-3 over its last six games with wins over Montreal, Columbus and Detroit while losing to Columbus, Buffalo and New Jersey. Incidentally, they needed a late rally to beat the Habs and they beat Columbus 2-1. So, while the Sharks can certainly win this game, the tag here makes the pesky Predators almost a must play because of its disciplined style that gives the Sharks nothing but trouble time and time again. Play: Nashville +2.32 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Georgia Tech –3½ over North Carolina
Folks, the Tar Heels aren’t suddenly going to become the Tar Heels you all know and love. Not this season, and certainly not in the ACC tournament against a Georgia Tech team dying for a win. It’s amazing how Tar Heel blue clouds the judgment of even the most respected pundits when the reality is as clear as can be; namely North Carolina just wasn’t a good team this season. They didn’t come close to winning any of their big games, losing to Duke twice, Texas, Syracuse and even falling to the College of Charlestown earlier this year. They had the second worst conference record in the ACC at 5-11 and finished second to last in offensive efficiency. They also finished an abysmal 4-9 away from the Dean Smith center and finished with the least 3 point makes in their conference. But for some, none of what I’m writing matters. No, they see University of North Carolina as a 3½- point dog to a Georgia Tech team that had a sub .500 conference record and think UNC is the lock of the century. Please don’t follow that ridiculous line of reasoning and make a play on the Tar Heels. The Yellow Jackets know that a loss here ends their tournament hopes. They also know that North Carolina will struggle to put the ball in the basket every single trip down the floor. Georgia Tech has one of the best defenses in the country and is especially proficient at defending inside shots, as they only allowed opponents to shoot a miniscule 42.2% from inside the paint. Considering North Carolina doesn’t shoot the three, they are going to have to try and score against Georgia Tech’s biggest strength. This is the last time we’re going to get the chance to bet against the Tar Heels. The Yellow Jackets are simply the better team playing on a neutral court with their tournament hopes on the line. A play on North Carolina is made by one who simply hasn’t taken the time to do the research. Play: #718 Georgia Tech –3½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Tom Freese
San Jose St vs. New Mexico St
San Jose St is 14-16 overall andt they are 6-10 in Conference Play. Guard Adrian Oliver scores 22.5 points a game. Chris Oakes scores 10.5 points a game. Robert Owens scores 10.6 points a game. Three other players score 9.9 and 8.8 a game. The Spartans score 74 points a game. San Jose St is 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as underdogs and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games with the Aggies. New Mexico St is 19-11 overall and the are 11-5 in League Play. Guard Jahmar Young scores 20.9 points a game. Guard Jonathan Gibson scores 17.8 points a game. Forward Troy Gillenwater scores 14 points a game. Center Hamidu Rahman scores 10.8 points and 8.4 rebounds a game. Forward Wendell McKines scores 10.6 points a game. The Aggies score 78.5 points a game. New Mexico St is 12-5-1 ATS their last 18 League games and they are 9-4-1 ATS their last 14 games overall. PLAY ON NEW MEXICO ST -
Stan Lisowski
Cal State Fullerton
Titans have revenge from 2 games ago. UC Davis is just 2-9 off of a win. Fullerton stands 10-3 as a tournament favorite while chalk has covered 8 of their last 10 Big West post-season affairs.