Tom Stryker
TENNESSEE (-) over Lsu
After getting drilled at Florida back on February 23rd, Tennessee cranked its game up a notch and spanked Kentucky, Arkansas and Mississippi State in its final three regular season games. Vols head coach Bruce Pearl likes the way his team is competing right now and you can bet your last dollar that UT will come into this tournament ready to play. In an earlier matchup against LSU, the Volunteers won an ugly defensive battle 59-54. That close victory will ensure that UT stays focused for this rematch.
After doing some extensive conference tournament research, I discovered that this was not the spot to fade the Vols either. According to my college basketball database, favorites priced at -9' or more in the Opening Round or "Donkey Round" are a respectable 19-8-1 ATS provided they sport a won/loss percentage greater than .700. If our "play on" piece of chalk is matched up against a foe that owns a won/loss percentage of .320 or better and is seeded fourth or lower, this situation hits perfection at 13-0-1 ATS! UT fits the general system and the spotless tightener.
LSU checks into the SEC Tournament as the No. 6 seed in the West and that spells trouble for the Tigers. Teams holding the No. 6 seed in the Opening Round or "Donkey Round" of the SEC Tourney are a dismal 7-23 SU and 10-20 ATS including a disturbing 0-8 SU and ATS matched up against a foe that holds a won/loss percentage of .710 or better! The Bayou Bengals apply to this angle and the ugly tightener.
As an underdog matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up win, LSU has hit rock bottom posting a stiff 2-45 SU and 17-30 ATS record including just 1-26 SU and 7-20 ATS fighting with revenge of any kind. Teams led by Coach Pearl always crank things up a notch at tournament time. The Vols will follow suit this afternoon. Take Tennessee. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Triple Threat Sports
Penn State (+) over Minnesota
Line is just too high here, as in the regular season Minnesota won by two at Penn State and by five at home, and now are laying more than either margin and doing so on a neutral court. Penn State is a "hang around" type of team, one that is able to play close but not win many games, but that makes for a good spread team, and this ability to hang around is why they are 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season. There are also neutral court team trends totaling 8-1 ATS pointing towards Penn State. Take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on North Carolina +3.5
UNC finally got things figured out late in the season with wins over Wake Forest and Miami, but then the Heels were absolutely embarrassed by Duke. Expect that loss to serve as a spring board for a motivated performance this evening. Furthermore, the fact that Georgia Tech defeated UNC twice this season should only add fuel to the fire. You have to like the fact that plays on neutral court teams as an underdog off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 30-9 ATS since 1997. Tech limps into this tournament off back-to-back losses and 5 losses in its last 7 games and I just can't justify laying the points here when you consider that the Yellow Jackets are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Roy Williams feels he has failed miserably this season. As a result, I expect that he has done some exceptional coaching over the last 5 days. I would be very surprised if he doesn't have his boys ready to go this evening. We'll take the points.
Cajun Sports
Georgia vs. Arkansas
Play: Georgia
The SEC Tournament has gotten underway earlier today but our focus is on an evening affair between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Arkansas Razorbacks. This game’s tipoff is set for 9:45 PM EST at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville Tennessee. The Hogs enter the tournament riding a five-game losing streak which includes a 1-4 against the spread mark over that span. Arkansas is coming off a very tough loss in their last outing a game in which they held a ten point lead at the half and could not hold on as Ole Miss came back in the second half to win 68 to 66 as a 1.5 point road favorite. Georgia also struggled to end the regular season losing their final two games both straight up and to the number after previously posting a 15-4 against the spread mark. Georgia will be seeking a measure of revenge tonight after blowing a fifteen point halftime lead at home versus this Razorbacks team back on February 3rd eventually losing 72 to 68. If UGA can get their perimeter shooting going early especially from behind the arc where they lead the SEC hitting 38 percent it could be a long night for a soft Hogs “D” that allows a league worst 74 points per game. Key situational tech sets have the Bulldogs in an almost perfect ATS winning situation combine that with our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index which projects a Georgia win by 6.7 points we will back the boys from Athens as they get their revenge and advance to the next round of the SEC tournament.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Georgia Bulldogs 74 Arkansas Razorbacks 67
Jack Jones
Buffalo PK
Easy choice here with 18-11 Buffalo taking on 13-17 Miami (Ohio). The Bulls should be at least a 5-point favorite in this match-up tonight. Buffalo has won 7 of their last 9 games overall, with one of their losses coming at Miami (Ohio). So the Bulls will be playing with revenge in mind after that letdown, and they'll get it tonight to advance in the MAC Tournament. Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
This play falls under a system that is 80-37 (68%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against neutral court teams as an underdog (MIAMI OHIO) - off a win against a conference rival against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Simply put, Miami (Ohio) is getting way too
Black Widow
1* on Ohio +5
Ohio rides some momentum into the MAC Tournament by winning four of their last five games, with their only loss coming by 3 points at Buffalo. This team has been a covering machine as the Bobcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Ohio has only one loss by more than 3 points dating all the way back to February 6th, and that came at Kent State by 7 points, the same team they face tonight. In fact, Kent State is 2-0 against Ohio this season, winning by 7 and 2 points. You have to like Ohio the third time around as history shows it's never easy taking down the same team 3 times in one season, especially considering Kent State barely won the first two meetings. It's also worth noting that Ohio is 85-46 ATS (+34.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1997. It gets even better in the double revenge role, as Ohio is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent since 1997. Take Ohio and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Florida Gators -5
Florida wants back in the Big Dance badly, but it didn't do much to help its chances by losing its last 3 regular season games. The Gators know they must have a good showing in the SEC Tourney to have a shot so we should see a very motivated Florida team tonight. Florida defeated Auburn by 8 points during the regular season so it is certainly capable of covering this number, especially when its motivational factor is considered. Also, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FLORIDA) off a road loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team, are 393-282 ATS since 1997. This situation has been profitable forever. Plus, the Tigers are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. We'll lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -7
After back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing loss to the lowly Knicks, look for the Hawks to snap out of it and put the hurt on the struggling Wizards this evening. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Washington. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. the NBA Southeast Division. The Wizards are running low on talent after all their trades and with the injury to Josh Howard. If Atlanta shows up, they should be able to cover this number, and they certainly have the motivation to do so.
Joseph D'Amico
Oklahoma State +4½ over Kansas State.
Oklahoma State has won and covered each of the L2 meetings over Kansas State. They have covered 6 of their L8, and come into this game with alot of confidence as they have beaten K State by an average of 17 PPG their L2. The Cowboy's are led by their trio of Guards, Anderson, Muonelo, and Page, who are combining for an average of 46.7 PPG. On offense, these two teams stats are very similar in all but one area, Free Throw's. Oklahoma Stae is far better from the line at 71.9%. They are 4-1 ATS TY in games played in a neutral site. Kansas State comes into this contest losing 2 in a row, including an OT loss to Iowa State 85-82 in which they were 15 point fav's. The Cowboy's are 5-1 ATS their L6 meetings over the Wildcat's, 22-8-2 ATS their L32 neutral site games, and 26-10-1 ATS their L37 overall. This game will come down to the better team from the line. Take the points with Oklahoma State.
Mr. Vegas
San Jose/New Mexico St
A neutral site game with a No. 6 seeded San Jose team (14-16) that was just 6-10 in the WAC. The Spartans ended the regular season losing at Idaho, 86-76, and at Boise State, 85-56. They take on the No. 3 seed in New Mexico State (19-11), a team that was very respectable on the road, roughly .500 at 7-8. San Jose was just 4-12 on the road and their soft defense away from home will be a problem against this New Mexico State offense that averages 78 ppg. It’s a revenge spot, too, as New Mexico State is on an 11-4 run, and one of those defeats was at San Jose. Play New Mexico State.