Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday March 14

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Dayton vs. Butler
The Bulldogs look to build on their 21-5 ATS record in their last 26 neutral site games. Butler is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Butler (-3 1/2)

Game 687-688: Alabama State vs. Jackson State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama State 36.356; Jackson State 44.670
Dunkel Line: Jackson State by 8
Vegas Line: Jackson State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Jackson State (-4)

Game 689-690: Prairie View A&M vs. Alcorn State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 34.598; Alcorn State 37.942
Dunkel Line: Alcorn State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Alcorn State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Alcorn State (-2)

Game 691-692: Delaware State vs. Hampton (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware State 45.711; Hampton 47.060
Dunkel Line: Hampton by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 693-694: Morgan State vs. Savannah State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 52.738; Savannah State 47.358
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 695-696: McNeese State vs. SE Louisiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: McNeese State 44.368; SE Louisiana 44.539
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 697-698: Sam Houston State vs. Oral Roberts (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sam Houston State 45.794; Oral Roberts 52.681
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 705-706: Cincinnati vs. Georgetown (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 65.810; Georgetown 72.563
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 7
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-4 1/2)

Game 707-708: Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 66.860; Pittsburgh 70.339
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2)

Game 709-710: Villanova vs. Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 68.431; Louisville 75.332
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 711-712: Notre Dame vs. Marquette (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 68.466; Marquette 70.485
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 713-714: Georgia Tech vs. Boston College (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 63.815; Boston College 60.091
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 3 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-2); Under

Game 715-716: Virginia Tech vs. NC State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 57.439; NC State 66.885
Dunkel Line: NC State by 9 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: NC State by 11 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+11 1/2); Over

Game 717-718: Wake Forest vs. Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 57.277; Maryland 64.712
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 7 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Maryland by 5 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-5 1/2); Under

Game 719-720: Clemson vs. Florida State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 57.551; Florida State 61.570
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 4; 125
Vegas Line: Florida State by 2; 120
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-2); Over

Game 721-722: Minnesota vs. Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 68.663; Illinois 65.160
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2); Under

Game 723-724: Penn State vs. Michigan (2:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 58.519; Michigan 69.686
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 11; 138
Vegas Line: Michigan by 14 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+14 1/2); Over

Game 725-726: Nebraska vs. Purdue (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 60.289; Purdue 68.713
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 8 1/2; 116
Vegas Line: Purdue by 6; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-6); Under

Game 727-728: Northwestern vs. Iowa (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 58.312; Iowa 66.160
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 8; 131
Vegas Line: Iowa by 10; 125
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+10); Over

Game 729-730: Charlotte vs. Richmond (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 55.778; Richmond 61.961
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 6; 133
Vegas Line: Richmond by 4 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-4 1/2); Over

Game 731-732: Dayton vs. Butler (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 59.215; Butler 65.614
Dunkel Line: Butler by 6 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Butler by 3 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-3 1/2); Under

Game 733-734: St. Joseph's vs. Xavier (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 64.443; Xavier 60.621
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 4; 117
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 1; 122
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-1); Under

Game 735-736: George Washington vs. Massachusetts (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 58.354; Massachusetts 59.963
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 1 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 3; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (+3); Over

Game 737-738: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 67.110; Oklahoma 65.353
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 2; 146
Vegas Line: Pick; 150
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State; Under

Game 739-740: Texas Tech vs. Kansas (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 49.858; Kansas 75.523
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 25 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 741-742: Texas vs. Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 61.433; Kansas State 69.159
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 8; 128
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 743-744: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 67.562; Oklahoma State 68.304
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 1; 139
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3; 135
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+3); Over

Game 745-746: LSU vs. Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 60.721; Georgia 63.949
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 3; 120
Vegas Line: Georgia by 1; 125
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-1); Under

Game 747-748: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 47.925; Tennessee 67.642
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 19 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 749-750: Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 61.547; Arkansas 66.137
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 4 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 3; 125
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-3); Under

Game 751-752: Texas A&M vs. Missouri (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 58.461; Missouri 71.655
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 13; 144
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 753-754: UAB vs. Southern Mississippi (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 56.227; Southern Mississippi 64.263
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 8
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-5 1/2)

Game 755-756: Houston vs. UTEP (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 57.649; UTEP 59.248
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 757-758: Tulane vs. Memphis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 55.136; Memphis 67.091
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 12; 133
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 759-760: Tulsa vs. East Carolina (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 57.087; East Carolina 55.622
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 1; 144
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+1); Over

Game 761-762: Arizona State vs. UCLA (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 60.032; UCLA 66.836
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 7; 136
Vegas Line: UCLA by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-3 1/2)

Game 763-764: Colorado vs. Arizona (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 64.102; Arizona 65.061
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 141
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 765-766: Utah vs. California (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 59.381; California 64.721
Dunkel Line: California by 5 1/2; 150
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 767-768: Oregon vs. Washington (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 65.957; Washington 62.330
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 3 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Ben Burns

Colorado vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

I passed on yesterday's light NHL schedule, focusing on basketball. (Editor's Note: Burns was 5-0 yesterday. He's now 7-1 the last two days and 40-20 on the month)

However, today offers a much deeper hockey card & I believe this is one of several solid opportunities.

These teams have shown a similar pattern in recent days. Both had yesterday off, after they each lost on Tuesday. Prior to that, both had won two straight.

A closer look reveals that the Avalanche lost their Tuesday game by a score of 4-0 while the Wild were only narrowly (2-1) beaten.

With this game being played at Minnesota, I feel that the Wild will have the better shot at bouncing back.

While these teams have split this season's first two meetings, the Wild have been better in division games overall. They're 6-4 (+1.4) against divisional opponents while the Avs are 4-5 (-0.6.)

Going back further finds Minnesota at 33-25 (+9.6) the past couple of seasons, in its divisional games. During the same period, Colorado is a money-burning 19-38 (-23.8.)

It should also be noted that the Avs are only 1-7 (-5.6) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game and 1-3 (-1.6) when playing a road game with an O/U line of five. On the other hand, the Wild are 7-4 (+1.8) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five.

These teams will face each other again, at Colorado, on Saturday. Knowing that to be the case, I expect the Wild to go "all out" to pick up the two points at their home rink. Consider Minnesota.

David Chan

Tulsa vs. East Carolina
Pick: East Carolina

Situational Analysis

These teams played on February 20th, and East Carolina won 72-63 in Tulsa as a 3.5 point fav.

East Carolina is coming off an 86-79 win over Marshall on the 9th. Miguel Paul had 22 points and 10 assists; Maurice Kemp added 21 points. East Carolina is a vastly improved team this year from seasons past, and posted a winning conference record for the first time since joining back in 2001.

Tulsa is coming off a 77-71 win at Rice on the 9th. D'Andre Wright had 15 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that East Carolina is is 5-4 ATS in its last nine neutral court games, and 6-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more.

Note that Tulsa is just 1-2 ATS in all neutral court games this year, and only 1-3 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent.

Pick Analysis

The 4th and 5th seed meet in the second round of the C-USA Tournament. Very evenly matched, but the Pirates already have the confidence in beating this Tulsa team earlier in the year, and is unchartered waters right now as far as its record, and overall turn around season. I believe that's the difference in tipping the scales in their favor as this team leaves everything it has on the floor and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night; consider a second look at East Carolina in this one!

Bryan Power

George Washington vs. Massachusetts
Pick: Massachusetts

This will be the fourth and final 1st round matchup in the A-10 Thursday as 6-seed Massachusetts faces 11-seed GW. The winner moves on to face 3-seed Temple, and I think the Minutemen are tremendously undervalued here. George Washington was pretty terrible towards the end of the regular season & UMass has revenge to boot. Lay the small number here.....

In the teams one and only regular season meeting, GW came out ahead 79-76 as a seven-point underdog in Amherst. I was pretty shocked by that result as were alot of people around College Basketball. The Colonials would go on to win their next 2 games, but after that really dropped off, losing seven of their last 10 straight up and going 1-9 ATS. Their only cover came against last place Duquesne, a horrible team, and one of four A-10 schools that failed to qualify for the conference tournament. That and a narrow home win over equally terrible Fordham were GW's only two wins over a nine-game stretch before they beat Dayton in the regular season finale. It should be pointed out that all three teams finished BELOW the Colonials in the standings.

UMass played just about everyone close, save for VCU, during the year and just seems significantly better at this point in the season compared to GW. Not sure why the oddsmakers hung such a low number on this one.

Art Aronson

Anaheim vs. Dallas
Pick: Anaheim

Anaheim is 19-3-3 overall and 8-2-3 on the road. The Ducks are coming off a 2-1 win at Minnesota on Tuesday. Anaheim has now won four straight games, while giving up just three goals in that span. Jonas Hiller has made 59 saves over his last two games, and is 6-0-1 with a 1.96 GAA over his past seven starts. But it's not all tough defensive play which defines the Ducks this season, as Anaheim averages a Western Conference-leading 3.3 goals, getting the job done by committee on the offensive side of the ice. Dallas is 12-11-2 overall and 5-5-1 at home. The Stars are coming off a 4-0 loss to Nashville on Tuesday. Dallas is just one of two Western Conference teams which isn't above .500 at home. Dallas's offense has hit a brick-wall of late, scoring just a single goal over its last two games combined. It hasn't helped that stars Jamie Benn and captain Brenden Morrow are injured, and both are expected to sit tonight's contest as well. The Stars are 4-1 their last five in this series, and that includes a 3-1 win at home on February 8th. The revenge angle is one which must be taken into consideration obviously. Here are two clubs which are moving in opposite directions. The Ducks have a great opportunity to extend their run with another solid effort vs. a Stars team which is struggling in every facet of the game. Great line value.

Bruce Marshall

Wake Forest vs. Maryland
Pick: Wake Forest

Maryland not likely to get much of a reception in Greensboro as it plots its future exit from the ACC to Big Ten. And the Terps have all but blown their NCAA at-large prospects with a late-season fade that included the surrender of 13-point halftime edge last Sunday in a bitter OT loss at Virginia. Granted, the matchups seemed to work well for Maryland when winning and covering a pair of double-digit decisions over Wake in the reg. season. But the Deacs usually shoot better than the combined 34% in the earlier meetings. If on mark, Wake's senior G C.J. Harris (15.3 ppg; 29 in season-ender vs. VPI) can keep the Deacs within earshot..

Jack Jones

Oklahoma Sooners -1

The Oklahoma Sooners were safely in the NCAA Tournament before a terrible 57-60 road loss to TCU in their regular season finale. Now, this team is squarely on the bubble and it really needs a win over Iowa State in its opening game of the Big 12 Tournament if it wants to make the Big Dance.

With that motivation, coupled with the fact that Iowa State is likely in the NCAA Tournament win or lose Thursday, I'm backing the Sooners to beat the Cyclones in this one. This is an experienced team that returned five starters from last year, so it is prepared to handle the pressure of this must-win situation.

The home team won both regular season meetings, but Oklahoma won the most recent meeting 86-69 on March 2nd. Lon Kruger clearly made better adjustments than Fred Hoiberg from the first meeting, and I look for the Sooners to implement the same strategies that were successful against the Cyclones less than two weeks ago.

This play falls into a system that is 79-43 (64.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (OKLAHOMA) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season.

Oklahoma is 17-9 ATS in all games this season. The Sooners are 9-2 ATS after playing a road game this season. Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games overall. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Thursday.

Rob Vinciletti

Butler -4

Butler is 5-0 this season vs teams that are ranked 100 to 150 in the RPI Rankings. Dayton is 0-6 vs top 50 RPI Teams like Butler. The Line is reasonable here and Butler is a tremendous 15-2 to the spread in Neutral court games, including 3-0 straight up and ats in the 1st round. The defeated Dayton earlier in the season by 6 on the road and take on Dayton team that has failed to cover 8 of the last in the second half vs opponents that allow 65 or less. Look for Butler to get another Opening round win and cover here today.

Don Best Consensus

Baylor vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Over

Over is 5-1 in Baylor last 6 neutral site games. Over is 9-4 in OK ST last 13 overall. Over is 9-4 in OK ST last 13 vs. Big 12.

Jim Feist

Baylor vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Over

Baylor at Oklahoma State from the spirit Center in KC. A Big 12 battle of offenses, with these teams 3-4 in the Big 12 in scoring. Baylor is all about offense, No. 3 in the Big 12 with 74.5 ppg, 4th in three-point shooting at 35%. Baylor has a ton of offensive talent, led by 5-10 senior Pierre Jackson (19 ppg, 6.6 apg), with 7-1 freshman Isaiah Austin (13.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and 6-9 junior Cory Jefferson (11.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg) up front. They showcased that talent in the finale, an 81-58 rout of No. 4 Kansas as a dog. The over is 43-19 in Bears last 61 games following an ATS cover and 5-1 over the total at neutral sites. Oklahoma State has plenty of offense, as well,on a 9-4 run over the total and their defense in the middle of the pack in Big 12 play. Play Baylor/Oklahoma State over the total.

Dave Cokin

East Carolina vs Tulsa
Pick: East Carolina

No doubt the site is an advantage for Tulsa as they take the court for a CUSA quarterfinal duel with East Carolina. But the locale doesn't offset what to me is the most basic factor in analyzing the game between the Pirates and Golden Hurricane. Stated simply, East Carolina is better than Tulsa. On a true neutral court, I would have the Pirates as a -3.5 favorite. There's just no way I can allow that many points for the Tulsa site advantage. It might be worth a bucket, but that's tops. So this is just plain line value in my estimation, as I'm now simply going to need the better squad to win the game. Sometimes it's really that uncomplicated and extended analysis can get you off a game where the value is staring you right in the face. I think that's the story here, and I'm backing East Carolina to advance with the win and cover.

Scott Spreitzer

Idaho +7

There's a lot more talent on this Vandals' squad than their record would indicate and they're starting to warm-up at the right time. Idaho has won three of their last four games, kicking it into gear on the offensive end in the wins. The Vandals took NMSU to the wire in each of this season's two games. The Aggies came out on top in 76-74 and 71-70 wins, which gives an improved Idaho squad all the confidence they need to spring the upset. The teams are rather similar regarding their statistics away from home. Idaho is the better shooting team and they own better numbers from behind the arc both on offense and in defending the trey. In fact, NMSU has allowed over 36% "makes" from area code three away from Las Cruces. This fits well into Idaho's decent perimeter shooters who have made nearly 37% of all 3-pointers away from home. Idaho is also a little better on the glass in this situation and I believe they're going to finally get over the hump against the Aggies...covering the spread at the very least. Idaho is 7-0, 100% ATS away from home when playing against teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least 4 boards per game. The Vandals are also on a 17-7 ATS run as an underdog, in general. More of the same. In yet another conference tourney being staged in Las Vegas (Orleans Hotel) I'm grabbing the points with Idaho.

Jason Sharpe

Cal Irvine (-4) over Hawaii

This Hawaii team was playing some excellent basketball about a month ago, and then a couple things went against the Rainbows. And because of that they have really sputtered towards the regular season finish line. One of their last wins was over an awful Northern Arizona team who showed zero interest in their travel game to Hawaii to play the Rainbows on the BracketBusters Saturday game a few weeks ago. Hawaii is a team who carried a tremendous edge in games on their court this year, but when you get them off the island they were a much different team. In fact, Hawaii won just three road games all season long, and all three of those wins were close victories also.

UC Irvine finished the season in fine fashion as winners in six of their last seven games overall. Their only loss during this stretch was on the road playing at a strong Pacific squad. In fact, they even pulled a nice upset along the way against regular season conference champion Long Beach State, also beat second-place Pacific in their other meeting against them and overall they finished a strong fourth place in the Big West in the all important third year for head coach Russell Turner at UCI. This veteran team was a much improved one late in the season, and they also had some quality losses before conference play began this year against UCLA on the road, Weber State on the road and USC on the road while also beating what is a solid Fresno State team away from home back in mid-December.

Cal Irvine comes in a threat to make some major noise here in the Big West Tournament. This is a solid team who is easily playing their best basketball of the season right now. They should have very little problems here in this one against a Hawaii team that is completely out of sync right now. Play Cal Irvine here in this game.

JEFF BENTON

Thursday's freebie is Oklahoma State over Baylor.

True, the Bears just did open some eyes with a regular season finale romp at home over Kansas, but Baylor still has been on the shortside in five of their last seven games both straight up and against the spread.

Oklahoma State comes into this tournament looking pretty darn solid in ALL aspects of their game, and Travis Ford's team has won 11 of their last 13 games straight up, including stopping a three game series skid with the overtime home win over the Bears back on February 6th.

The favorite in this series has gone a whopping 11-2 against the spread the past 13 meetings, so I will side with the Pokes to punch their ticket for Friday night's semis with the win and cover as the favorite over the Bears.

4* OKLAHOMA STATE