BRAD WILTON
Your Thursday free play winner is Purdue to continue their red-hot play as they take on Nebraska in their Big 10 first round meeting.
Purdue has really stepped up their game the last 10 days or so, as Matt Painter's Boilermakers have notched upset wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota over their last 3 games, and they nearly knocked off Michigan in that span but were able to at least cover versus the mighty Wolverines.
The Boilers hot play bodes well in this meeting with a Nebraska team that has not been able to make a dent in their conference meetings with Purdue since joining the Big 10.
Nebraska is 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in the 3 series meetings, and all 3 have been decided by double-digits.
Care to make that 4-0 with all 4 decided by double-digits?
You go Purdue. Boiler Up!
4* PURDUE
MATT RIVERS
Afternoon free play winner is to go with NC State as the double-digit favorite over Virginia Tech in the opening round of the ACC tournament in Greensboro.
I know Tech just took State to overtime before bowing 90-86 on February 16th, but I do not feel this one is going to be that close.
The Hokies showed no effort this past Sunday in their regular season finale at Wake Forest, losing to a below .500 Demon Deacons team by 11, so I can only imagine what a motivated Wolfpack team that is looking to garner a decent seed come Sunday is going to do to them today.
The Wolfpack did lose their regular season finale at Florida State, but they had won and covered 3 games prior, and were on a 6-1 straight up run before stubbing their toes in Tallahassee.
There is so much talent on this NC State team it is hard for me not to believe they simply won't wipe the floor with the disinterested and going-nowhere Hokies.
Lay the double-digits.
2* NC STATE
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Northwestern at IowaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: IowaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa (20-11) is a young team that is surging late in the season after winning six of their last eight games after their 74-60 win against Nebraska last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in a decisive 13 of their last 16 games following a straight-up victory. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. This team has also covered the spread in 4 straight games against Big Ten opponents. Fran McCaffery's team is playing unselfishly with plenty of cohesion. They are 2nd in the Big Ten by assisting in 63.0% of their made field goals. Northwestern (13-18) is playing out the string having lost eight in a row after getting slammed with injuries. The Wildcats' season was pretty much ruined after season-ending injuries to senior Drew Crawford and senior Jared Swopshire. Iowa should advance to the quarterfinals easily. Lay the points with Iowa in this one.
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Dayton vs. ButlerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ButlerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bulldogs have shown all season long that the step up in competition has been no big deal. They have played well in the A-10 and even took down some national powers too. Now they are in their element of playoff basketball. They are assured a spot in the tournament next week but they will be focused and ready for a middling Dayton team they beat by 6 on the road earlier in the season - a game in which Rotnei Clarke barely played. Its winning time and Butler will know what to do. I don’t expect this game to be close at all.
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Clemson +2.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida State is a very inconsistent team. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Clemson may not have as many wins as the Seminoles but they have been consistent this season. Their defense has been great holding opponents to 59.7 points per game. Compare that to the 67.9 points allowed by Florida State and we have a favorable advantage for the Tigers. When these teams played back on January 24th Clemson lost by 3 points playing at Florida State. Now we are on a neutral court which gives the Tigers a great chance to earn their revenge. You should always play on neutral court teams revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points when they are coming off a game they again scored less than 60 points. This system is 78-42 (65%) ATS.
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Colorado +130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado +130 tonight as the Avs got embarrassed last time out a bagel... 0-4 shutout loss to Edmonton...yuk... NOW THEY TAKE THE SHOW ON THE ROAD TO MINNY..... Avalanche forward Duchene is hot and has four goals and three assists over his past four games...Power rated @ pickem... Value on these nasty & upset Avs... We give the edges to Offense & in the Net.... AVS STEAL ONE IN MINNY 3-2 final
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Georgetown -5 over Cincinnati: This team has been dominant this year and while they did lose at Villanova in their second to last home game, they did bounceback and flex their muscles in their 22 point home win over Syracuse in their season finale. This team plays great defense and should have little problems shutting down a poor shooting Cincinnati squad that has scored 61 points or less in 9 of their last 10 games during regulation, while averaging just 54.3 ppg (regulation) during that stretch. Now they face a Georgetown squad that just held the league's top scoring to just 39 points. No way the Cats put up more than the 55 they put up in the season's lone meeting between the teams. The Hoya offense is average at best, while the Cats defense is very solid, but I still don't see Cincinnati coming up with enough points to keep this one close.
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Iowa/ Northwestern Under 125: The Cats can't for shit right now and they play a slow down tempo to boot. The Cats are 326th in the nation and they score just 60.8 ppg on the year, including just 57.8 ppg away from home. Their last 13 games have been very horrific offensively as they scored more than 61 points just once in those games, while posting an average of 53.6 ppg over that stretch. The Cats have scored 59 or less in 13 of their big 10 games, including both vs Iowa and it doesn't figure to get much better for them vs a tough Iwa Defense that has allowed just 58.5 ppg on 37% shooting in their last 6 games. Iowa has the 2nd ranked defense in term of effective FG% in the Big 10 and the Cats come in hitting just 35.2 ppg in their last 5 games. I really don't expect more than 53 from the Cats in this one. Thanks to their slow down pace the Cats have played pretty good defense this year, allowing just 63.4 ppg on the year and they should be able to hold down a Hawkeye team that has put up just 63 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Iowa has also struggle to shoot the ball in their last 5 games, hitting just 40.2% of their shots over hat stretch. Really just one team has a shot at 60 points in this one, while the other team has no shot at topping 55 points. This should be a slow paced game with a final that looks like 65-53.
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Charlotte vs. RichmondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 129FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both Charlotte and Richmond will find their way into the post-season. The question is where? This game, and for the winner, those that follow will kill or enhance the resume of each, so this one becomes an important game for both. I expect both teams to bring a lot of intensity to the defensive end of the court. These teams also have something else in common as they tend to struggle offensively on a neutral court. Combined, they enter this game with a 13-4-1 UNDER mark when playing on a neutral court. They have pretty much mirrored those numbers in their last 13 meetings as the UNDER has prevailed to a 9-4 mark. Play this one UNDER the total.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio SpursFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Dallas MavericksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game features the 30-33 Mavs at the 49-16 Spurs. The Mavs have won 5 of their 7 games and are inching their way back to a .500 record after a porous start to the season. The Mavs still have a shot at the playoffs believe it or not and this is another must game win for them. "We know time is short, and urgency is high," coach Rick Carlisle said. The Mavericks are an excellent 20-13 ATS on the road this year and 19-13 ATS as the underdog. The Spurs are still without Tony Parker and have a banged up Tim Duncan on crutches. The Spurs have lost 2 of its last 3 games and those losses where blowout one to Portland and Minnesota. The public is heavilly backing the Spurs here at a rate of 73% making us love the Mavs all the more play a 8* play on the Mavs plus the points.
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Oklahoma PK over Iowa StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa State is one of my favorite team to watch. They play at a fast pace and have really good shooters, but the truth is they are not that great when they are not in their own home arena. These neutral site games can be a grind and I think the Sooners are better at getting to the foul line and getting easy points. Iowa State would have to shoot lights out to win this game and you just cannot handicap if a team is going to be on or off. Oklahoma can handle this style of play and raise it with physical play. Take the Sooners.
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Maryland -5.5 over Wake ForestFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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To me this game is as simple as Maryland being the better team on offense and on defense. The Terps are a better rebounding team that will not allow a lot of second chance points. Wake is just not a solid basketball team and their lack of defense should have them bounced with ease today. Maryland does have some youth, but I don’t think a team like Wake can take advantage of that. Take the Terps
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Long Beach -7 over CS FullertonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Long Beach was not supposed to be this good again this year, but they took advantage of a very tough non conference schedule and learned from getting crushed by really good teams. This is a well coached program and CS Fullerton is short handed with injuries. 2 of the top 3 players on this team that contribute a lot of points and minutes are not going to be playing and it also makes this team very small in size compared to Long Beach. Let the spread take care of itself here. Take Long Beach.
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COLUMBUS +152 over ChicagoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Blackhawks may still be coming down after their historic run ended in Colorado on March 8. Chicago subsequently lost at home to the Oilers by a score of 6-5 and suddenly, they’ve allowed 12 goals against in two games. We all knew that the goaltending combination of Corey Crawford and Ray Emery couldn’t sustain the pace they were on with both being average goaltenders. Chicago has a comfortable 15-point lead on the third place Canucks and is likely to be in cruise mode for the next couple of weeks. The ‘Hawks will be a top-seeded playoff team and no longer looking to extend their record breaking run, they can afford to relax a bit.
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The Blue Jackets five-game win streak was snapped on Tuesday when they lost in OT to the Canucks. It was the Jackets’ 11th loss of the season by one goal but they still managed to pick up a point to extend their point-getting streak to six games. The Jackets are a tough out. Columbus has the mindset of a prize fighter in that they work relentlessly and never give up. When Chicago came in here sky high on March 1, they won 4-3 in OT as a -265 favorite. This time around, the Blackhawks aren’t going to be as jacked up while the Blue Jackets will be. Brandon Dubinsky’s return to the line-up makes these Jackets even tougher than they were the last time Chicago was here. As a significant pooch in its own building and getting stronger as the season wears on, Columbus has proven that they can be trusted to compete with any.
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N.Y. Islanders +109 over TAMPA BAYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. What has happened to the Tampa Bay Lightning? Looking like true contenders at the start of the season, the Bolts have regressed as badly as any team in the NHL. With poor goaltending that deflates a team every time a softie is allowed, Tampa has two wins over its past nine games. One of those two victories came in Florida on Tuesday in a game the Lightning were outshot 39-13. The Bolts’ last home win came on February 19 against the Maple Leafs. Tampa has dropped four in a row and six of seven in its own building.
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The Islanders have picked up points in seven of 11 road games (6 wins, 1 OT loss). They’ve also picked up points in four of their past five games with only regulation loss over that span occurring in Pittsburgh. With two of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league in Mark Streit and Lubomir Visnovsky, it’s no mystery as to why the Islanders power-play ranks fourth in the Eastern conference. That should bode well here against the Lightning, who has been in the box more times than 22 of the 30 NHL clubs. Off since Sunday and coming off a poor performance in Pittsburgh, the Islanders will be fresh and raring to go here. The Bolts haven’t been raring to go in weeks.
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Los Angeles +104 over SAN JOSEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Only two points separate these two in the standings and that provides us with one of the best wagering opportunities of the season because equals they are not. In 18 games since San Jose’s 7-0 start, they have just four wins and the future does not appear bright. Among the string of defeats is a 5-2 loss to Colorado, a 4-1 loss to Calgary, a 6-2 loss to the Blue Jackets and two losses to the Predators. In those 18 games after the fast start, the Sharks have scored a league low 29 goals. Now they’re favored over Los Angeles?
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Whenever the Kings are being offered a price, they are worth taking a look at. Against reeling squads, we’ve seen the killer instinct in this visitor. They figure to bring that mindset here against this rival in the first game of the season between these Pacific Division rivals. Winners in 12 of its past 15 games and loaded offensively and defensively, a rested Kings’ team taking back a tag has so much more value than a Sharks’ squad spotting one. Los Angeles hasn’t lost consecutive games in over a month. Coming off a 5-2 loss at Phoenix, San Jose figures to be victimized.
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Colorado +172 over ArizonaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The GM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will be the site of this quarter-final, PAC-12 matchup and while the 4½-points being offered may look appealing, we like the Buffaloes enough to play them outright. Money was to be made betting against Arizona throughout the course of the Pac-12 season. The Wildcats are still mired in a long-term 7-14 ATS slump, including a 2-8 ATS mark on the road. Arizona is a decent team but the Wildcats are continually priced incorrectly, largely due to its #18 ranking and at early-season one-point (lucky) wins against Florida and San Diego State which anointed this team as an elite-level squad. We aren’t fooled.
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Colorado is a real matchup problem for the Wildcats. In the first meeting of the season between these two on January 3 in Arizona, the Buffaloes lost in OT. When the teams met in Boulder on February 14, Colorado exacted revenge with a 71-58 victory. One could argue that the Buffaloes were the better club in both matchups, especially in the second game. Now Colorado comes into this one with plenty of hot shooters, including 6’5 guard Spencer Dinwiddle, who has gone off for 20 points or more in five of the schools’ last eight games. The Wildcats are in the field of 68 at the main event. Teams that have their tickets punched already often relax at these rather meaningless conference tournaments. To qualify for the upcoming tourney, the Buffaloes have to win the Pac-12 tournament. They opened the tourney with a win over Oregon State yesterday and suddenly two more wins after this one seems attainable. A more focused team in a favorable matchup certainly has a solid chance to pull off the upset.
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Notre Dame +116 over MarquetteFFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Golden Eagles went 16-0 at home this season. Away from the Bradley Center, Marquette is just 7-7 and this one will be played in New Jersey on a neutral floor. The Golden Eagles are just not the same team when they leave their area code. At St. John’s, in the season finale, Marquette needed OT to beat the weak Johnnies to secure a share of the Big East title with Louisville and Georgetown. When these two played in the regular season at Marquette just over two weeks ago, the Golden Eagles won by eight. In that game, Marquette shot 59.6 % from the field while the Irish hit on 23 of 60 FG attempts (38%). Those numbers suggest a blowout but Notre Dame lost by just eight. There is very little chance of that discrepancy happening again, as the Irish possess the better defense here.
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Recently, the Irish held both Cincinnati and Pitt below 42 points and those two opponents combined to shoot just 2-for-20 from 3-point range. Notre Dame's strong defense and style of play is conducive to winning this time of year, especially against a team that does not travel well. The Irish went 3-0 on neutral courts this season and in a rematch that figures to be more statistically even, Notre Dame’s chances of winning are better than the Eagles chances
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Penn State + over MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State has given Michigan a lot of problems this season, playing very close in an eight-point loss in Ann Arbor and then stunning the Wolverines with a comeback win at home. Both of those games came within the last month so these teams will be very familiar with each other and this is a Penn State team that has been very competitive down the stretch despite the last place finish in the Big Ten. Penn State has its two conference wins within the last four games and the Lions have covered in six of the last seven games. Penn State played very close games with Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin down the stretch and this team has the perimeter talent to compete well with a still young Michigan squad. Michigan is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 games as this team has faded late in the season despite at one point being the #1 team in the nation. Michigan has five losses in the last 10 games and this team could certainly be caught looking ahead with a potential rematch with Wisconsin on deck for the winner. In the last 10 games Michigan has not defeated a team by more than 13 points and only once in the last 16 games did Michigan win by more than 15 points as this team has not had blowout wins since the first three games of the conference season. Away from home Michigan has been highly vulnerable defensively, allowing over 70 points per game on over 45 percent shooting and Penn State will have opportunities to keep this game tight.
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VANDERBILT (+3.5) over ArkansasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hogs were absolutely dismal this year when playing away from home, going 1-11 SU while averaging 61.6 points per game. For a team that overall scored an average of 73.7 ppg, this is a drastic drop-off. Sure, this isn't a true road game, but you can be sure Vandy -- which has won four of its last five games -- will have the crowd behind it since the tournament is being staged in nearby Nashville. When these two teams last played, the Commodores avenged an earlier loss to the Hogs by rolling to an 18-point victory as a three-point home dog. Take the points.
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Minnesota Wild -140FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Avalanche are 10-11-4 on the season, but an awful 2-8-3 on the road. Minnesota is 13-10-2 on the season and a solid 9-3-1 at home. These two teams have met twice already in Minnesota, with the Wild winning 4-2 in the first meeting and then the Avs winning 4-3 in a shootout their last time out. I think Colorado beating the Wild in Minnesota for one of the 2 road wins may help here tonight, as the Wild won't be taking Colorado lightly. Minnesota is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games, and their lone regulation loss was on Tuesday vs Anaheim. The Wild outplayed Anaheim for most of the game, but ran into a hot goalie in Hiller and could only get one by him on 31 shots. Colorado is coming off of a 4-0 home loss vs the last place Oilers, and they have won just 3 of their last 10 games. Minnesota is a much better home team, while Colorado has only won 2 games in 13 tries on the road. I will lay a bit of chalk with Minnesota tonight.
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Anaheim Ducks +102FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The second pick of the night is going on one of the top teams in the NHL right now as underdogs. Dallas did beat Anaheim 3-1 back on February 8th in Dallas, which is why we see the Stars as slight favorites, but remembering back that was a Friday night game and it was a bad spot for the Ducks. Anaheim is 19-3-3 on the season and a solid 8-2-3 on the road this year. They have won 4 straight games, including a 2-1 victory in Minnesota on Tuesday night and have outscored opponents 12-3 over those 4 games. Jonas Hiller is red hot right now in net, allowing just 3 goals over his last 3 games. Dallas is 12-11-2 on the season and 5-5-1 at home, but are coming off two straight losses. Dallas lost 4-0 at home vs Nashville on Tuesday and 2-1 in Phoenix on Saturday. Take note that the Ducks are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a win. Anaheim is also 8th in the league in goals against per game and 3rd in goals scored per game. This should be a good game, but I will take the Ducks who are looking for revenge and riding a hot goalie as small underdogs.