Teddy Covers
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Arkansas
Vanderbilt enjoyed a very easy slate down the stretch, winning four of their last five games in large part because they played three of the weakest teams in the conference—South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State. They escaped with a one point win (as 5.5-point favorites, a non-cover) over offensively challenged Georgia and got absolutely annihilated at Florida in their other two games during that span.
Kevin Stalling’s squad is as young as it gets. They don’t have a senior on the roster after graduating all five senior starters from last year’s team. And they have only two juniors; Kyle Fuller and Rod Odom. That’s why the Commodores have struggled so much away from home this year; not a team to trust in a neutral court environment, even one in their home city. Let’s not forget how Arkansas held Vandy to a grand total of ten made shots in 40 minutes of gametime in their 56-33 home win back in January – poor offensive efforts away from home have been a staple of the Commodores season.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has seven upperclassmen on the roster and that doesn’t include leading scorer, sophomore BJ Young. Head coach Mike Anderson takes these conference tournaments very seriously dating back to his tenure at Missouri. And Anderson’s team was good enough to beat Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Missouri SU while losing in spread covering fashion by only three points at Alabama. Those were the five best teams in the SEC this year. Vanderbilt went 0-7 in their games against those same five teams.
Erin Rynning
Nebraska vs. Purdue
Play: Nebraska
If you've been watching these conference tournaments you know that winning by margin (or straight up for that matter) isn't easy when you’re a favorite. And it becomes even more difficult when the team laying the points spent much of the season struggling to achieve mediocrity. That appears to be the case for Purdue who finds itself in a position of laying -6 after a strong finish to the regular season. The Boilermakers found a way to win in Madison and were very respectable in a five-point home loss to Michigan. In the season finale, they rolled over a toxic Minnesota squad, 89-73. To me however, Purdue is being priced based on a three-game swatch of games rather than its entire body of work. It is hard to say a lot of positive things about Nebraska who finished 5-13 in Big Ten play. They were outclassed on most nights against the league's elite but against more comparable foes, they were able to stick around. Expect a low possession game and for Nebraska to do enough to stay within the inflated number.
Marc Lawrence
New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: New York Knicks
When the Knicks meet the Trailblazers in Portland Thursday evening, New York will take the court with revenge on its mind from a loss suffered earlier this season at Madison Square Garden. They also enter off a 23-point thumping last night at Denver. With the Blazers just 1-5 ATS in this series in games off back-to-back losses, look for the Knickerbockers to even the score here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.
Larry Ness
Tulsa vs. East Carolina
Pick: Tulsa
With steadily declining attendance and a program seemingly “going nowhere,” Tulsa officials decided to fire head coach Doug Wojcik. Tulsa “went big,” hiring a true legend in college basketball, Danny Manning (former player of the year and the man who led Kansas to its improbable national title in 1988). Manning's 5th-seeded Golden Hurricane (16-14 / 8-8) exceeded expectations this season as the first-year head coach's squad was projected to finish closer to the cellar of the standings. Tulsa doesn't do anything exceptionally well but Manning has developed a solid team. Four guards make solid contributions in Woodard (11.9-5.9), Swilling (10.7), Haralson(10.4-3.7) and Ray (7.6), while the 6-8 Wright (8.6-5.0) and the 6-7 Black (7.6-4.5) are the team’s best frontcourt players. Meanwhile the fourth-seeded East Carolina Pirates begin their quest for their first-ever Conference USA tourney title. Jeff Lebo's Pirates (18-11 / 9-7) love to “score the ball,” as they average 77.2 PPG, led by the 6-8 Kemp (18.4-7.7) and Missouri transfer Paul (13.1-6.9 APG), who has effectively run the point. Manning's first-year produced a surprisingly good effort from his team and he gets an “extra bonus” in that this tourney is being played at the BOK Center in Tulsa (not Tulsa’s home court but close enough!). Danny wins his first tourney game as a head coach. Then he gets Memphis. Now THAT’s another story!
Jesse Schule
Clemson vs. Florida St.
Pick: Florida St.
The Seminoles and the Tigers appear to be two teams headed in different directions. Florida State finished the season on a hot streak, with back to back wins over Virginia and N.C. State, while the Tigers lost each of their last six games.
Florida State already defeated Clemson twice this year, both at home as well as on the road. They split the home and home series last season, with each team winning their home game. The Seminoles finished four games ahead of the Tigers in the ACC standings, with a record of 9-9.
Florida State has been punishing opponents with it's clinical display at the free throw line, led by freshman guard Devon Bookert. The Seminoles hit 22-of-29 from the charity stripe in their win against the Wolfpack, while N.C. State hit just 21-of-33.
When you consider the head to hear record, and the fact that Florida State has been by far the hotter team as of late, it seems like they should giving giving up a few more points that the low number they are being asked to cover here.
I like the Seminoles to win this game easily, but if it's close coming down the stretch, you have to give the edge to the team with superior free throw shooting.
Matt Fargo
Tulane vs. Memphis
Pick: Tulane
Memphis is the clear favorite to win the C-USA Tournament but playing outside of Memphis is pretty foreign to the Tigers. The Green Wave come in sky high after erasing a 13-point second half deficit against Marshall to win on Wednesday. This is only the second year in the last decade that Memphis has not had the luxury of playing the C-USA Tournament on its home floor. The tournament is contested at the BOK Center in Tulsa this season after being played in El Paso in 2011. Memphis had another spectacular season but it was definitely an under the radar team as not a lot was expected but an 18-game winning streak turned some heads. It has been a very disappointing season for Tulane. The Green Wave were expected to make a run at Memphis in C-USA or at least end up in the top half of the conference and after a 12-3 non-conference start, things were looking up. However, Tulane lost its first two conference games and it could never get back on track as it could do no more than a two-game winning streak the rest of the season. The Green Wave ended the regular season on a four-game losing streak but picked up some momentum with a huge come-from-behind victory over Marshall on Wednesday. It was Tulane's first C-USA tournament win in four years and only the 11th time the Green Wave has won its opening game in 34 tournament appearances so it has to be full of confidence and playing loose is the name of the game. The Green Wave enters the C-USA Tournament as the league's second-best team in taking care of the ball. Tulane averages only 12.2 tpg and maintaining that gives them a shot to keep this close. Memphis rolled in the two regular season meetings but the Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a win, while the Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
Jeff Alexander
Baylor +3
With its back against the wall, Baylor exploded to an 81-58 victory over Kansas in its regular-season finale. The win has the Bears back in the NCAA tournament discussion, but it likely didn't do enough to secure a spot in the field. A win here would go a long way toward Baylor punching its ticket to the Dance. The Bears have had a great deal of success against Oklahoma State recently. They are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings with the loss coming by only 2 points on the road. That defeat came in the most recent meeting but Baylor is on a rock solid 64-50 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. It is also on a terrific 74-56 ATS run in the underdog role. Take Baylor.
Dave Price
Oregon -3.5
Oregon enters the Pac-12 tourney highly motivated after losing its last two games of the regular season and the Pac-12 title along with it. The Ducks won both regular-season meetings against Washington by 5 and 13 and should be able to pull off the trifecta in this motivated spot. The Ducks have the advantage in terms of fresh legs as they haven't played since Saturday. Washington just played a high-intensity game against Washington State last night. The thing I like about Oregon is its balance. It has six guys who average over 9.0 points per game. It had 5 players score 9 or more in both wins over Washington during the regular season. It makes things very tough on the defense with so many guys capable of beating you. Oregon's balance helps it prevail again in this motivated spot. Lay the points.
Steve Janus
Iowa Hawkeyes -10
The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball and one that has the talent to beat any team they go up against in the Big 10. Iowa ended up 9-9 inside conference play thanks to a 6-2 run to close out the season. The Hawkeyes could have easily finished with a lot more wins, as six of their nine conference losses came by 4-points or less. Northwestern shouldn't put up much of a fight. The Wildcats come in riding a 8-game losing streak. Their only loss by fewer than 10-points during this stretch came at home against a horrible Penn State team by 7-points. Iowa is clearly the better team and has a lot more to play for, as they need to rack up some wins to get in the discussion for an automatic bid!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Georgetown -5 over Cincinnati: This team has been dominant this year and while they did lose at Villanova in their second to last home game, they did bounceback and flex their muscles in their 22 point home win over Syracuse in their season finale. This team plays great defense and should have little problems shutting down a poor shooting Cincinnati squad that has scored 61 points or less in 9 of their last 10 games during regulation, while averaging just 54.3 ppg (regulation) during that stretch. Now they face a Georgetown squad that just held the league's top scoring to just 39 points. No way the Cats put up more than the 55 they put up in the season's lone meeting between the teams. The Hoya offense is average at best, while the Cats defense is very solid, but I still don't see Cincinnati coming up with enough points to keep this one close. Yes
Iowa/ Northwestern Under 125: The Cats can't for shit right now and they play a slow down tempo to boot. The Cats are 326th in the nation and they score just 60.8 ppg on the year, including just 57.8 ppg away from home. Their last 13 games have been very horrific offensively as they scored more than 61 points just once in those games, while posting an average of 53.6 ppg over that stretch. The Cats have scored 59 or less in 13 of their big 10 games, including both vs Iowa and it doesn't figure to get much better for them vs a tough Iwa Defense that has allowed just 58.5 ppg on 37% shooting in their last 6 games. Iowa has the 2nd ranked defense in term of effective FG% in the Big 10 and the Cats come in hitting just 35.2 ppg in their last 5 games. I really don't expect more than 53 from the Cats in this one. Thanks to their slow down pace the Cats have played pretty good defense this year, allowing just 63.4 ppg on the year and they should be able to hold down a Hawkeye team that has put up just 63 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Iowa has also struggle to shoot the ball in their last 5 games, hitting just 40.2% of their shots over hat stretch. Really just one team has a shot at 60 points in this one, while the other team has no shot at topping 55 points. This should be a slow paced game with a final that looks like 65-53.
UMass -3 over George Washington: The Colonials have not performed well down the stretch, going just 2-6 on their last 8 games, with one of those wins coming over a bad Fordham team. GW is 0-7-1 ATS in those games and have had 5 double digit losses over that stretch. This is not a team that is playing all that well and they will be facing a team that is playing well right now. The Minutemen come in having won 3 of 4, which includes road wins at Rhode Island and Xavier, plu a DD home win over a good Dayton squad. Both teams have been poor defensively of late, but the Minutemen have the clear advantage on offense as they have put up 76.8 ppg in their last 5 games, while GW has averaged just 66.4 over the same stretch. Clearly we have two teams headed in opposite directions and I will go with the hotter and better team to cove the short number here.
Arkansas/ Vanderbilt Under 125: Greg Shaker asked if the Books have adjusted to the lower scoring tourney games and as far as this game is concerned I would have to say no. These teams played twice this year and just 116 and 89 points were scored in the two games, yet the OU line for this one is at 125, so I would say their is some Value (God I hate using that word) on the under here. Arkansas hasn't been held in check by many teams on the home floor, but Vanderbilt did hold them to 56 points in a meeting their earlier in the year. Now Arkansas scores 80+at home so that was an impressive defensive performance. Now the Hogs really struggle to score away from their home court, averaging just 60.1 ppg on the road and hey were able to muster just 49 points when they faced Vandy on the road. Vanderbilt is a solid defensive squad overall as they have allowed just 60 ppg overall and 60.6 ppg on the road, while also checking in at 58th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Its no wonder this team has been able to shut down Arkansas. The Hogs don't really play a whole lot of defense, but they are still 66th in the nation in defensive efficiency and will be taking on a weak Vanderbilt offense. The Commodores play a slow tempo offense (325th in pace) and they average just 60 ppg on the year overall, including just 56.5 ppg on the road. Let's also note that Vandy is 323rd in FT% (63.2%) and they hit just 31% from long range on the road, plus in 2 games vs the Hogs they were able to score just 50 ppg vs them. I just don't see how this game hits 120 points, especially since I expect Vandy to slow the pace like the first 2 meetings.
Joe Gavazzi
Oregon -3½
This is clearly one of the least athletic and least capable squads for 11th year HC Romar at Washington. After winning 100 games the previous 4 years, the Huskies have failed to replace the contributions of Wroten and Ross from last season. They enter today at 18-14 SU after fending off arch rival Washington State last night. Oregon has already disposed of the Huskies twice yet remains highly motivated following their late season eggs vs. Mountain teams Utah and Colorado. There's no doubt they were out of sync in the absence of PG Artis for 10 games from late January to late February. But now that it's tourney time, Artis has been integrated back into the lineup and the Ducks RPI has fallen to a dangerous 54. I expect a huge game 1 effort from the well-rested Ducks as they prove why, with a healthy PG Artis, and the coaching of Altman, they are the best team in the PAC 12.