Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday March, 15

DUNKEL INDEX

Harvard vs. Vanderbilt
The Crimson look to build on their 3-1-1 ATS record in their last 5 neutral site games. Harvard is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Vanderbilt favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+6 1/2)

NC-Asheville vs. Syracuse (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 55.517; Syracuse 75.317
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 20; 149
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 17; 145
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-17); Over

Game 713-714: Southern Mississippi vs. Kansas State (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 61.728; Kansas State 65.976
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4; 131
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 6; 134
Dunkel Pick Southern Mississippi (+6); Under

Game 715-716: Loyola-MD vs. Ohio State (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 55.301; Ohio State 75.077
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 20; 133
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 17; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-17); Over

Game 717-718: West Virginia vs. Gonzaga (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 65.288; Gonzaga 67.359
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 2; 128
Vegas Line: Pick; 132
Dunkel Pick Gonzaga; Under

Game 721-722: Connecticut vs. Iowa State (6:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.775; Iowa State 66.363
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-2); Over

Game 725-726: Colorado State vs. Murray State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 60.114; Murray State 65.800
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 5 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Murray State by 3 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick Murray State (-3 1/2); Under

Game 727-728: South Dakota State vs. Baylor (7:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 63.571; Baylor 73.219
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 9 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Baylor by 7 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-7 1/2); Under

Game 729-730: Colorado vs. UNLV (9:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 63.332; UNLV 65.414
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 2; 138
Vegas Line: UNLV by 4 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick Colorado (+4 1/2); Over

Game 731-732: Harvard vs. Vanderbilt (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 63.648; Vanderbilt 67.333
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 3 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+6 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: Montana vs. Wisconsin (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 61.622; Wisconsin 72.074
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 10 1/2; 115
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick Wisconsin (-9); Under

Game 735-736: VCU vs. Wichita State (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 62.838; Wichita State 71.905
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 9; 138
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 6; 134
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-6); Over

Game 737-738: New Mexico State vs. Indiana (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 65.386; Indiana 70.034
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 4 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Indiana by 6; 152
Dunkel Pick New Mexico State (+6); Under

Game 739-740: Long Beach State vs. New Mexico (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 65.428; New Mexico 68.484
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 3; 139
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+4 1/2); Over

Game 741-742: Davidson vs. Louisville (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 60.947; Louisville 70.027
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 9; 135
Vegas Line: Louisville by 7; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick Louisville (-7); Under

Ben Burns

Connecticut @ Iowa St
PICK: Under 136

After seeing seven consecutive games finish above the total, Connecticut's final game of the Big East Tournament resulted in a 58-55 loss. That game stayed below the number by more than 20 points. Iowa State, which also saw its final conference tournament game fall below the total, has now seen nine of its last 15 games stay beneath the number. Given the way these teams have played when having some time off in between games, this one could also easily prove fairly low-scoring.

The Cyclones haven't played for a week, having last played Thursday, March 8th. The last time that they played with six or more days in between games, they managed only 67 points, a 67-65 victory over Miss. Valley State. That home game didn't have an O/U line but the 67 points scored was considerably lower than the Cyclones' season home average of 73.2. (On the road they average 67.2.)

The only other time that the Cyclones played with six or more day's rest in between games was on 12/18, vs. Central Michigan. That game had an O/U line of 143 yet finished with a mere 111 points. In fact, it was their lowest (combined) score of the entire season.

The Huskies also last played on 3/8. The last time that they played with six or more day's rest in between games was on 1/29 vs. Notre Dame. That game had an O/U line of 128, yet finished with a mere 98 points. It was Connecticut's lowest (combined) score of the entire season.

The previous time that the Huskies played played with six or more day's rest in between games was on 12/18 when they combined with Holy Cross for only 117 points.

While Iowa State road games averaged 136.7 points this season, UConn road games averaged only 132.3.

Note that the "under" is 5-1 the Huskies' last six NCAA Tournament games.

While the Cyclones haven't been to the NCAA tournament for awhile, they have seen the "under" go 7-3 the last 10 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. All things considered, the number seems fair. Consider the Under.

Marc Lawrence

Montana at Wisconsin
Prediction: Montana

Riding a school-record 14-game win streak, the Grizzlies are double-champions taking points from a non-champion… always one of our favorite ploys in the first round of this tourney. And it looks to be classic matchup of offense versus defense. Montana is averaging over 70 PPG on 46.5% shooting from the field but will that be enough to penetrate Wisconsin’s impenetrable stop-unit, which leads the nation in scoring defense (52.9 PPG). The Badgers are also 7-2 ATS outside of the tough Big Ten this season and have their sights set on another deep run (lost to Butler in the Sweet 16 last season). All promising numbers until you consider the fact that Bo Ryan is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in his career in this tourney when facing a greater than .750 foe. We don’t want any of that and neither should you. Despite that 0-7 SU beauty, we can’t call for that outright win (though that +400 on the money line looks awfully tempting). No, the Grizz lost by 6 points at San Diego State in their season opener and that number looks just about right here. A solid take as Wisky looks risky in this Albuquerque opener. We recommend a 1-unit play on Montana.

Matt Fargo

BYU at Marquette
Play: Marquette

BYU won its first round game over Iona thanks to a classic meltdown by the Gaels in which they blew a 25-point lead. The Cougars held the Gaels without a point for 9:20 in a 17-0 run to narrow the deficit to 62-61 midway through the second half and after scoring 55 points in the first 16 minutes of the game, Iona tallied just seven points over the next 16.5 minutes. Hats have to go off to BYU for this NCAA Tournament record comeback but that sets us up with a good play against in round two. Marquette had an incredible season in the Big East and it has the makeup and the experience to make some noise in this tournament. The Golden Eagles finished 25-7 and after losing in the opening round of the Big East Tournament to eventual champion Louisville, they closed with a 14-5 conference record. A loss to LSU at the start of the season was a bad one but the other six losses came against NCAA Tournament teams, all of which are seeded seventh or better. BYU was able to make the necessary adjustments to slow down the high-powered Iona offense but it might now be able to do that against a similar team. The Golden Eagles led the Big East in scoring at 75.9 ppg and while the similarities are the same at the Gaels, the players on the floor are not. Marquette has a great 1-2 punch in seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, both of whom were named to the All-Big East First Team. The Golden Eagles have much better athletes and it will show. This is a quick turnaround for BYU which won late on Tuesday night in Dayton and while a trip to Louisville isn't far, it is still travel that cut down on preparation time and fatigue may even come into play here. The Golden Eagles fall into a solid situation also as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points from a power conference going up against teams from a mid-major conference, off a loss against a conference rival. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1997. 3* (724) Marquette Golden Eagles

Vegas Experts

Colorado at UNLV
Play: UNLV

Following an unexpected early exit from the Mountain West Tournament, in their own backyard no less, look for UNLV to come out strong in this matchup with Colorado. We all saw what a "fine effort" Pac 12 team Cal put forth on Wednesday as the fact remains this is a woeful league. The Buffaloes only made the field by virtue of winning the conference tournament. Look for their to be no Pac 12 teams following Thursday in the NCAA Tournament. UNLV is familiar with this venue as New Mexico is a conference rival.

Craig Trapp

Loyola Maryland vs. Ohio State
Play: Loyala Maryland +17.5

We have been cashing big playing against OSU the last month of the season and tonight we keep it going. Bucks don't shoot it great from outside and have virtually no bench. On the other hand Loyola Md can shoot the ball very well. Athletically OSU has advantage but not enough to cover this type of number.

Rob Vinciletti

Va Commonwealth vs. Wichita State
Play: Va Commonwealth +6.5

VCU is back and ready to make another solid run here tonight. Thye have covered 9 of theor 10 games in this tournament and have won all 4 times the last 3 years vs teams who average 77 or more points per game. Thye are 4-0 in 1st round games and 5-1 with 7 or more days rest. When the total is 130 to 140 they have won 11 of 14. Finally in game soff a conference win thye have won 15 of 17. Wichita St is under .500 to the spread vs winning teams and just 1-4 to the spread on neutral courts. VCU beat Wichita St last year as a 9 point dog in Wichita so we know they can stay with them. Look for VCU TO at the very least get the cover.

Sean Murphy

South Dakota State @ Baylor
PICK: Over 140

To be honest, I probably still would have considered playing this total had the number come out in the 150s.

South Dakota State got bogged down a little bit in the Summit Conference Tournament, but make no mistake, the Jackrabbits can score with the best of them.

They enter the NCAA Tournament having scored 76.4 points per game on 46.5% shooting, and while we do have to take strength of schedule into consideration, I really feel that those numbers translate well into their opening matchup against Baylor.

Of course, the Bears are freakishly athletic across the board, and won't shy away from pushing the pace, even against an ultra-efficient offensive opponent.

Baylor checks in averaging 74.3 ppg on 46.6% shooting, and certainly flexed its muscle in the Big 12 Tournament, scoring 82 and 81 points in wins over Kansas State and Kansas, before bowing out with a 75-point effort in the championship game against Missouri.

Neither team is known for its defensive prowess. South Dakota State gave up 70+ points against the likes of Minnesota, Georgia, Niagara, Nebraska, and Washington over the course of its non-conference slate. It's worth noting that none of those teams reached the NCAA Tournament.

As for Baylor, it feasted on weaker Big 12 foes, but when the chips were down in the conference tournament last weekend, it allowed more than 70 points in all three games. I don't feel that the Bears have the proper footing to shut down a multi-pronged Jackrabbits offense on Thursday night.

This could turn out to be one of the more entertaining games on Thursday's dance card. I'm not envisioning a blowout, which should add the possibility of seeing some scramble points late - never a bad thing when backing an 'over' in the NCAA Tournament.

Jimmy Boyd

Connecticut -1.5

Iowa State, which tied for third in the Big 12, marches into the Big Dance for the first time since 2005. I expect the Cyclones to give the reigning national champs a game, but I don't expect them to come out on top.

UConn isn't the same team without Kemba Walker, but it is still ridiculously talented. It underachieved this season but enters the tournament playing well.

The Cyclones have struggled against ultra-athletic teams (i.e. Missouri and Texas), and the the Huskies have plenty of length and athleticism. The Cyclones have also struggled away from home, going just 6-8 in neutral court/road games this season.

It's hard not to like UConn in tournament games. We're talking about a team that is 17-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons. They have won these contests by an average score of 72.7 to 64.6. This run has a lot to do with having superior talent. The Huskies are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Cyclones are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog. We'll take UConn.

Jim Feist

West Virginia vs. Gonzaga
Play: Over 133

West Virginia (19-13) has plenty of offensive muscle up front with 6-8 senior Kevin Jones (20 ppg, 11 rpg) and senior G Daryl Bryant (17 ppg). The Mountaineers are 2nd in Big East in rebounding, a physical team in the low post, and take on a more finesse team Gonzaga squad whose top rebounder is 6-7 junior Elias Harris. They had a home game against Michigan State and lost 74-67, as the Spartans shot 54%. They also lost to Illinois of the Big 10, 82-75, allowing 53% shooting and 78 points in a WCC tourney loss to rival St. Marys. Look for an offensive show, play West Virginia/Gonzaga Over the total.

Dave Cokin

Connecticut vs Iowa State
Pick: Iowa State

Hey, it's not easy trying to beat Jim Calhoun at any time, and I'm sure he'll have UConn ready to go here. But the Huskies just aren't all that good this year, and I have Iowa State as the better team now getting points. Public fade with a call on the Cyclones to get the win.

James Patrick Sports

VCU vs. Wichita State

Shaka Smart's Rams can dream about consecutive Final Four appearances given their draw. If they can get past the Shockers, the possibility of playing Indiana way out in Portland guarantees a fair shot at the Sweet 16. Bradford Burgess, one of the stars of last year's run, will have to lead them. VCU throws off teams with its constant pressure and has enough 3-point shooters capable of getting hot and significantly altering a bracket. Big Game James Patrick's Opening Round NCAA Tournement complimentary selection is VCU Rams.

Dave Price

West Virginia +1.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Take West Virginia.

SPORTS WAGERS

Iowa St +115 over Connecticut

Last years champs have talent but they have not come close to putting it all together this season and Kemba Walker is not going to suddenly walk through the door. The Huskies got off to a great start this season but as the calendar turned, so did UConn's fortunes -- from bad to worse. Following a Jan. 29 loss to Notre Dame, the Huskies' fifth loss in seven games, they fell out of the Top 25. Subsequently, Shabazz Napier hit a 30-foot buzzer-beater in overtime to beat Villanova, a shot that may have very well saved UConn's NCAA tournament hopes. They've looked out of sync and they've been inconsistent for six weeks now. The real kicker here is that the Huskies had the worst 3-point defense in the Big East and opponents can torch them from deep. Enter the Cyclones. A team that broke the school record for 3-pointers in a season and completed the biggest turnaround in Big 12 history. They've defeated some top programs this year including Baylor and Kansas. Iowa State won't overwhelm anyone, but with their smarts and ability to make 3s, the Cyclones are dangerous in a one-and-done setting. The Huskies don't do the little things right, that being forcing turnovers, getting after loose balls and taking quality shots. As a result of all this and their inconsistent play, expect the Huskies to be shown the door early. Play: Iowa State +115 (Risking 2 units).

Murray State -5 over Colorado State

The Rams have had a nice year but are the product of a terribly inflated RPI. The three wins that got them here -- UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State -- all came in favorable spots and they all came at home. Colorado State won one game all season outside of their state and that's unlilkely to change here. This is perhaps the most overvalued dog in the field. They don't make perimeter shots. They aren't going to win the game on the glass, create extra possessions, or steal easy baskets in transition. Because the Rams are usually much smaller than their opponents, they can't dictate anything on defense. This undersized squad is going to need everything to go in their favor to pull this one off and we don't see it happening. Murray State has the experience and talent to make a Sweet 16 run. The Racers are going to be a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams and that includes these Rams. Isaiah Canaan was the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year. He's an explosive, exciting player to watch. He can shoot the ball from deep, having already made 95 3's on the season, and can get into the lane with great ability to create off the dribble. Has the talent to become one of the names you will remember in this tournament. There aren't too many lowlights for a team that enters the NCAA tournament at 30-1 and this isn't going to be a lowlight either. Play: Murray State -5 +103 (Risking 2 units).

South Dakota State +8½ over Baylor

Baylor is one of the wild-cards in this event. They've shown flashes of brilliance while also displaying blatant liabilities. It would not be a surprise to see them make the Elite-8 or conversely, get knocked out in the first-round and given the choice we'd lean to the latter. Baylor turns it over far too often (20.6 percent of possessions), does a lousy job on the defensive glass and allows too many 3-pointers (28.8 percent of opponents' scoring, 120th in the nation). These are exactly the types of teams that get upset at this event every year or find themselves in an unexpected hole and then need a furious rally to prevent a quick exit. South Dakota State is capable of rocking Baylor’s boat. They protect the ball as well as anyone (15.7 turnover percentage; fourth in the country) and they generate 32% of their points from 3-point range, the kind of high-risk shooting we like to see when taking back significant points. The Jackrabbits are perhaps the least familiar team in this tourney and what that means is we're going to get some extra points because of that unfamiliarity. South Dakota State features a cool nickname, plays its Summit League games in remote parts of the country and has one of college hoops' truly hidden gems in Nate Wolters. They're also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the field, shooting almost 40 percent as a team from behind the arc. With nothing to lose, the Jackrabbits are so dangerous against an erratic and unpredictable club like the one they'll face here. Upset possibility. Play: South Dakota State +8½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Gonzaga +100 over West Virginia

The Zags have been very decent at times this year but they've never been great but don't have to be to beat the Mountaineers. Some suggest they're too inexperienced to advance but we're not buying that for a second. One of those youngsters is exciting point guard Kevin Pangos. He's a future star and he has great talent surrounding him. This is a Zags team that went 15-1 at home and 6-4 on the road. Gonzaga stacks up well against anyone and they have a great recent history of advancing in the first round. West Virginia is not a good shooting team and one of the poorest 3-point shooting teams in the field, yet they continue to hoist up poor 3's instead of working it inside. It has been more than two months since the Mountaineers have notched an impressive win. They'll inevitably start taking bad shots, and they'll pay for it on both ends. The Mountaineers are not capable of a blowout win here while the Zags are. Also note that this game is in the Mountaineers' backyard yet the books made this one a pick-em. Oddsmakers recognize that an NCAA Tournament win in this tourney is a tall order for WVU, simply because they're just not that good. We agree. Play: Gonzaga +100 (Risking 2 units).