JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie is to go with Shaka Smart and his Rams to cover the impost against Wichita State.
Not discounting the prowess of the Wheat Shockers at all, as I think the winner of this game could definitely advance to the Sweet Sixteen, but I am a firm believer in Coach Smart and his tactics at this time of the season.
VCU cooled off a Drexel team in the Colonial Final that was on a 19-game winning streak, and the Rams just fight you all the way from start to finish, not to mention from end-to-end on the hardwood. The Rams full-court pressure is yielding a whopping 18-tunrovers per game, and leads the nation with an eye-popping 10-steals per game!
Granted, this is not the same VCU team that made it all the way to the Final Four last season (Bradford Burgess the lone returnee), but this is a team that is on a 17-1 run with the lone loss on a buzzer-beater.
In what should be one of the better first round meetings, I just don't see much more than three-points separating these schools.
Take the points and the Rams in a first round classic from Portland.
4♦ VCU
DEREK MANCINI
For today's Free Play winner I'm laying it with Wichita State over VCU in South Regional action. There's no doubt the public has targetted VCU as a possible cinderella team once again here, but I couldn't disagree more. This is not the same team we saw last season, and despite their impressive record and solid core, they happen to be up against a team that's been kicking ass and taking names all season - Wichita State.
You want to talk about a true possible cinderella (eventhough they're a 5 seed, so its not really a surprise), let's talk about the Shockers. They have everything you want in a mid major to make a legitimate run, incl. size with the 7-footer Stutz, rock-solid guard play with Ragland and Murry (who both average double-digits and have over 100 assists apiece), efficient offense (48% shooting this season) and a lock-down defense (allow 60 ppg on 35% shooting L5 games). This is a complete team that's also firing on all cylinders, trust me when I say no one wants to play Wichita State right now.
VCU is a solid team, but their lone effective big guy, Juvonte Reddic, is going to have problems with Stutz. And don't talk to me about D.J. Haley, I know he's a 7-footer, but he plays 15 minutes/game, and has somehow amassed 76 personal fouls over that limited playing time. He'll put Stutz on the line time and time again until he takes his usual seat on the bench, and let's not forget Stutz shoots 82% from the charity stripe. In fact, the Shockers as a whole enjoy a strong free-throw shooting edge over the Rams (75% vs. 68%).
Finally, consider the line. With all this talk about VCU and coach Smart, and how they're going to make another run, doesn't it strike you as a bity fishy that they're getting so little respect here? Guys, it isn't lack of respect, its reality. The Shockers are that much better than the Rams, and you'd know that if you saw them play as much as I did. Long story short, lay it with Wichita State over VCU Thursday.
4♦ WICHITA STATE
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s look at the UNLV-Colorado matchup. Colorado got hot a the end of the season and won the Pac 12 to get into the tournament.
The Buffaloes are a gritty team that likes to play defense and grind out the victories. In their last five games, they have allowed only 59.2 points a game, allowing teams to shoot 41.9 percent from the floor.
UNLV is a team that is best when it can get into transition.
Getting this team into a half-court game is strategy that you want to use. In their last five games, the Rebels averaged 64.8 points a game and shot 40.6 percent from the floor. Both of those numbers are down from their season average.
When the games got tough and tournament time, the games turns into a half-court game and the Rebels struggle, going through some scoring droughts. The Buffaloes are not prolific on offense, averaging 61.6 points a game in their last five games.
What looks appealing in this matchup is the total. The total is set at 135. With the style of play and the tempo that the game will be played at, both teams are going to struggle to get into the 60s.
The under is the play here.
3♦ UNDER
CHRIS JORDAN
Now, let's talk about UNC Asheville, a two-touchdown underdog - and then some - to a Syracuse team I wasn't sold on in the Big East Tournament. Honestly, it didn't surprise me when Cincinnati ousted the Orange, a team that doesn't rebound well, doesn't necessarily shoot that well from the charity stripe and doesn't bang from the perimeter.
Nowwww, you factor in Melo's absence, and yeah, you have a real problem with the Orange going far in this event - let alone getting past these rabid Bulldogs, who rank fifth in the country in scoring, with 81.2 points per game. Yes, I know the Orange will have to employ that stringent zone even tougher without their star player in the middle, but guys, I'm telling you, don't underestimate Asheville's defense in this game.
While everyone is familiar with how the Orange plays - they've been on television enough this season - what coach Jimmy Boeheim's boys might not know about the Dawgs is how they rank 15th in the nation in steals per game, and 36th in the country with their turnover margin.
It should come as no surprise, then, that UNC Asheville is eighth in the nation in assists per game, given the transition game it employs. The best bet for the Bulldogs is to come right out and attack the ball, and move at a fast pace to stun the Orange and catch them off-guard.
I'm sure Boeheim will figure out a way to keep his Orange in this game and guide them to a win, but I don't think it'll be as big as the oddsmakers believe it will be. Take the underdog here.
3♦ UNC ASHEVILLE
Alright, so with Long Beach State, we're talking about a team that knocked off Pittsburgh in the second game of the season, and fell short by four points in its third game, against San Diego State. It also lost to Louisville, Kansas and North Carolina - three teams projected by different analysts to win the whole thing. The 49ers beat Xavier and Auburn, and lost to Kansas State.
That's one helluva non-conference lineup, going 3-5 in those eight games. And in the five losses, the margins were 4, 13, 8, 6 and 17. Okay, so they weren't nailbiters. But they were 5-3 ATS in those games, and if I told you Long Beach State was playing those eight teams before the season, you would have said it was going 0-8 and would love six of them - at least - by double digits.
So even though they're set to take on the Mountain West Conference's regular season co-champion and tournament champ, I think the Lobos will have their hands full with this game.
The 49ers are an experienced bunch, led by Casper Ware, Eugene Phelps, Larry Anderson and T.J. Robinson. And when you mix in one of the toughest nonconference schedule in college basketball, that included those trips to Lawrence, Chapel Hill and Louisville, you have to believe Long Beach State will be far from being intimidated by its opponent or surroundings.
The Niners, the proverbial No. 12 seed, come into the dance on ATS runs of 5-1 in non-conference play, 5-2 when catching points, 7-3 on neutral courts and 7-2 overall. And in all-or-nothing game for this core of players who will never don a Long Beach uniform again, I have to put my money on what might be the best 12-seed in the tourney.
1♦ LONG BEACH STATE
MATT RIVERS
The Thunder were sleepwalking through their latest five-game home-stand, as Okie City suffered losses in two of their last three home dates - and to Cleveland and Houston no less!
Look for Oklahoma City to be up for the cause tonight in Denver, as the Thunder get their house back in order this Thursday night.
Including the playoffs, Oklahoma City has won seven of the last eight meetings versus Denver. The Thunder is also 5-2-1 against the spread their last eight games played on the Nuggets court.
Denver has split their last four games straight up, and they are a below average 9-14 against the spread on their home floor this season.
No issue here, lay it with Oklahoma City as they snap out of their malaise from the past few days.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Free play today in the dance is Vanderbilt to continue their late-season surge and eliminate the Ivy League's lone representative, the Harvard Crimson.
Harvard finished the season with just four straight up losses, but playing the bulk of your games is not the same as having to go through the grind of the rugged SEC loop for the past two months.
Vanderbilt has flamed out in the early rounds of the big dance in years past, but with all five of their starters back from last year's squad, and four seniors and a junior in the starting rotation it is highly likely that this group under Kevin Stallings is ready to make some noise this year with a deep run.
The Commodores are sizzling right now, winning and covering seven of their last nine games, and the scoring power of John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor is something Tommy Amaker's team cannot match for the full 40-minutes. Throw in big man Festus Ezeli patrolling the paint, and it is going to be a one-and-done once again for this year's Ivy League representative.
The 'Dores gained supreme confidence from finally beating Kentucky in the SEC title game, and they will not let that win be in vain. Take Vandy here.
4♦ VANDERBILT
Jeff Alexander
Indiana -6.5
Teams in the Big Ten had some success Indiana, but no one else did. The Hoosiers went 13-0 in non-conference play. 7 of those games were lined and the Hoosiers covered the spread in all 7 while winning by an average of 24.6 points. These games weren't just against cream puffs either. Three of them came against NCAA tourney teams Kentucky, NC State and Notre Dame. Look for New Mexico State to be Indiana's next non-conference victim. The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Bet Indiana.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin/ Montana Over 117.5: Had some time to sleep on this play and the more I thought about it the more I liked it. Wisconsin is the better team and will look to grind it out at their own pace, but they can also be sped up a bit as they were vs Indiana in the Big 10 tourney, when 150 points were scored. Let us also note that 7 of Wisconsin's last 9 games have put up at least 120 points. Montana is not use to low scoring games as their Big Sky tourney games put up 152 and 140 points, while 13 of their last 16 games have all hit at least 125 points. Grizzly games have averaged 133.3 ppg on the year, including 134.5 ppg in their last 16 games, so this is really not a team used to playing a slow tempo. The Badgers have averaged 63.0 ppg on the year and 67 ppg in their last 3, while their defense may be tiring a bit as they have allowed 61 ppg in their last 8 games, compared to just 52.9 ppg for the season. I expect that a Montana offense that puts up 70.6 ppg on the year should be good for around 60 here, while Wisconsin should hit at least 65 of heir own. This game should flirt with 130 points. KEY TRENDS--- WISCONSIN is 12-3 OVER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, while MONTANA is 8-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more this season.
4 UNIT PLAY
Marquette -6 over BYU: I know that BYU came from 25 down to beat Iona, but let's think about that for a second. They were down at one point by 25 points to a mid major Iona team and today they face a Marquette team that was one of the best in the Big East this year. Yes I had Iona in that game, as i thought they were better than BYU, but even i didn't expect them to jump out to a 25 point lead over the favored Cougars. The Reality is that BYU is not a great team and they did struggle vs the top two in their own conference, going 1-4 combined vs St Mary's and Gonzaga, while outside their conference they really had two notable wins vs Oregon and Va Tech. Marquette is an up and down pressing team that puts a lot of pressure on opposing teams and with BYU playing just 2 days ago and having to make a huge second half comeback I don't see them holding up the whole game in this one. They will wear down in the second half and that's when Marquette will turn this into an easy DD win. Also o0nce they grab the lead they will not let the Cougars back into it like Iona did. Marquette by 15+ here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Indiana/ New Mexico State Over 154: Google News Play. Expect a high-scoring Round of 64 affair when Indiana and WAC champion New Mexico State get together in the South Regional. Both the Big Ten’s Hoosiers (77.3) and Aggies (78.5) led their respective conferences in scoring, with New Mexico State coming off a title run where it averaged 79.6 points in three tournament games. Indiana on defense has been decent, but they did allow 74 points to an average Purdue off and 79 points to a bad Wisconsin offense down the stretch, plus they also allowed 78 and 89 points in their two games vs High scoring Iowa and 80 points to Michigan State, so this team has trouble with high scoring teams. Not a lot of really high scoring teams in the WAC, but Hawaii is one of those high scoring WAC teams and the Aggies 3 games vs them they allowed 91, 73 and 81 points. Those three games combined for 179 ppg and in a faced paced game like this we could see the same results. Easy Over here.
Montana +9.5 over Wisconsin: Google News Play. I have not been that much of a fan of this Badgers team and went against them a few times, with good success. Wisconsin does play great defense yes but their offense just hasn't been good enough this year for them to have many blowouts. They have also struggled with some of the good offenses they have faced, losing to Carolina, Iowa twice, Michigan State 3 times, Ohio State and they allowed Indiana 71 points in the Big 10 tourney. Now they face a Grizzlies team that averages 70.6 ppg on the year and is 48th in shooting (46.5 %). Not only can the Grizzlies score, but they play good defense as well as they have allowed 61.7 ppg (44th) on 40.3% shooting (36th) and they should be able to clamp down on one of the worst offenses in the Big 10. Wisconsin just doesn't score enough to get get a lot of big easy wins and they won't here as well as the Grizzlies can play some defense as well as score. This one should go down to the wire.
Gonzaga/ West Virginia Under 133: A Few games ago the Mountaineers put up 92 points on Depaul, but this is still not an offense that is clicking as they have averaged just 54.7 ppg in their other 4 games during their last 5 games of the season. They did have an OT game in there, but scored just 2 points in the extra session vs UConn in the Big East Tourney. It will not be easy for their scoring to improve that much in this one vs a Gonzaga team that has allowed just 63.2 ppg overall (76th) on 41.3% shooting (81st). The Zags have been even better down the stretch as they have allowed just 61.3 ppg in their last 9 games overall, plus they have allowed just 38.2% shooting in their last 5 games, while the Mountaineers have shot just 37.2 % in their last 5 games and just 21.9% from long range over that same stretch. Despite an OT game and the 75 they allowed vs Depaul and 77 vs Louisville, this mountaineer team has played some good defense down the stretch as they have allowed just 62 points in their last 8 games. The Zags can score (74 ppg), but a weak shooting WVA squad will need to rely on their defense to win this one and after a season in the Big East this team knows how to play some defense. I don't expect either team to hit 65 points in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Vanderbilt/ Harvard Over 122.5: Despite two of heir last 3 games being really low scoring, that is not the norm for this Vanderbilt team. Overall this year Vanderbilt games have averaged 137.9 ppg while their games away from home have averaged 140.6 ppg. Vandy averages a solid 72.9 ppg overall and 72.2 ppg away from home, including 69.8 ppg on neutral courts. Harvard does play good defense as they have allowed 55 ppg overall, but they can be scored upon as they have allowed 60+ point in 7 of their 16 non-Ivy games this year and Vandy has the offense to put points in this team. Harvard doesn't score a whole bunch but they have put up 65.1 ppg overall and 64.9 ppg on the road, while Vandy has allowed 65 ppg overall and 68.4 ppg away from home. I look for 125+ points in his one.
New Mexico/ Long Beach State Over 137: LBS has played some high scoring games this year, thanks in part to an offense that has averaged 73.9 ppg overall, 75.2 ppg in their last 10 games and 76.7 ppg away from home. Their defense has played well of late, but they have allowed 72.3 ppg away from home this year. New Mexico has played some really solid defense this year, as they have allowed just 59.7 ppg overall, but they have allowed 63.8 ppg away from home and they could struggle some with the faced paced attack of the 49ers. Like the 49er, the Lobos also average over 70 points at 73.2 ppg for the year and should have success vs a LBS team that doesn't play much defense away from home. This should be an up and down game that should reach the 140's.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Davidson +7 Over Louisville: The Cardinals are still not a great shooting team and their struggles on offense should keep them from pulling away from a solid Davidson squad they averages nearly 78 ppg. Not expecting the outright upset, but the Wildcats should keep this one close.
UNLV -5.5 over Colorado: The Buffaloes had a nice year, but that was in the weak PAC-10 this year. UNLV has been ranked much of this year and they are the better team here. I look for the Pac-10 to be 2 and out after this one (Cal lost last night), as the Rebels win by DD.
Jack Jones
Indiana Hoosiers -6.5
Indiana is a bit 'under the radar' heading into the NCAA Tournament. The biggest reason for that is a season-ending injury to guard Verdell Jones III, who is a solid player for them, but not one they are going to miss all that much. Jones is 7th on the team in scoring.
New Mexico State was able to win the WAC Tournament just to get into the big dance. While this is a solid mid-major, the Aggies aren't on the same level as Indiana talent-wise. NMSU lost twice to Southern Miss out of conference early in the year. The Aggies have just one win all year over a NCAA Tournament team.
NMSU is 1-7 ATS after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite this season. Indiana is 17-9 ATS in all games this season. The Hoosiers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this year. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NMSU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Bet Indiana Thursday.
Alex Smart
Gonzaga -1.5
West Virginia wobbled to the finish line this season, losing 8 of its L/12 games while Gonzaga continued to impress until the very end, despite of a OT loss to St.Marys in their conference tourney finale. I know Gonzaga has travelled across country for this tilt, and the Mounties are playing just 75 miles from home, but talent wise I believe the superior team is the Bulldogs.
Fairway Jay
Loyola Maryland vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -17
Let’s tip off our Thursday evening with a blowout winner in NCAA Tournament action. Loyola Maryland (24-8) went on a 3-0 SU/ATS run to capture the MAAC Tournament title and advance to the Big Dance. The Greyhounds are fairly methodical on offense and don’t have the talent or athletic ability to keep up with the Buckeyes. Ohio State (27-7) can excel in open court and half court sets, and statistically they are solid across the board. OSU tied for the top spot in the Big Ten in field goal shooting (47%) while holding opponents to just 41%. Ohio State is one of the top rebounding teams in the country thanks to super soph Jared Sullinger – a player that Loyola can’t handle in the middle. Sullinger and Deshawn Thomas both shoot over 53%, and with Aaron Craft at the point, their balance and strength can beat anyone. When asked to win by margin, Ohio State has responded with five 20+ point victories when favored by 20 or more points this season. They also beat Big Ten opponents by 11 points per game. Expect them to double that tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA Bay -½ +119 over Toronto
One has to wonder what is going to motivate the Maple Leafs for the remaining 12 games. They looked like a shoo-in to make the playoffs about a month ago and now they’re one point out of being dead last in the Eastern Conference. They are a demoralized club and in three games since Joffrey Lupul has been out, Toronto has been outscored 8-2. Now the Leafs will face a team they’ve defeated twice this year by scores of 7-1 and 7-3. A response is a must for the Lightning, who must be licking their chops to get at them. Tampa Bay is coming off a 6-1 win over the Bruins. They are 7 points out of a playoff spot with two games in hand and while they’re chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best, they haven’t tossed in the towel. Considering the current state of the Maple Leafs and what is at stake here, another loss to them would be more humiliating than the previous two. Play: Tampa Bay -½ +119 (Risking 2 units).
Boston -½ +128 over FLORIDA
On paper it appears that the Bruins are struggling mightily with three consecutive losses. Their struggles were magnified when they were whacked 6-1 by the Lightning in their last game. Luckily, games are not played on paper. The Bruins were all over Tampa for not one period but all three. They allowed just 17 shots on net while recording 34 of their own. Marty Turco, who has pulled out of retirement, started for the B’s last game and allowed three goals on the first six shots in the game’s first five minutes and was yanked. Tim Thomas will man the goal tonight. In the two losses prior to the one mentioned, the Bruins were not outplayed in defeats versus Pittsburgh and Washington. The Bruins are still a power that is not to be ignored. The Panthers are one of the few teams in the past six weeks that were outplayed by the Maple Leafs. They won that game by a misleading score of 5-2. The Panthers have won two in a row over the Hurricanes and Leafs and both were ugly. Recently, Florida has lost to Winnipeg and Philly by scores of 5-0 and 7-0. They have five wins in 13 games and only one of those 13 victories have been against a team above .500. The B’s get back on track here because they’re hungry enough and because they’re vastly superior. Play: Boston -½ +128 (Risking 2 units).
Nashville +117 over SAN JOSE
For the first time in a very long time, the Sharks find themselves on the outside looking in with three weeks left on the schedule. For San Jose and many other teams, it’s playoff time right now, as all these games are crucial. How have the Sharks responded to the pressure? They have one win in their past seven games. That win came against the Oilers. They have continually folded under pressure and until they prove otherwise, they remain a team to fade when the chips are down. The Predators continue to roll. It appears as though they will face the Red Wings in the first round of the playoffs, with the only question being which team will host it. With Detroit slumping badly, the Preds have caught them and now sit just two points behind the Red Wings with two games in hand. Nashville has to be aware of how vital home ice will be in that series. The Preds catch the Sharks returning home from another ugly four-game trip and have a big edge in net, momentum, state of mind and personnel. Play: Nashville +117 (Risking 2 units).
Chuck O'Brien
Yes, one of the biggest stories in college basketball this season has been the return of the Indiana Hoosiers to the national scene. Quite a shame their continuance in the dance is at jeopardy against a dangerous New Mexico State Aggies team.
The Aggies are a high-scoring team that averages 78.4 points per game, and that's without being a legitimate 3-point threat. New Mexico State is disciplined in the paint, crashing the boards, as its plus-8.7 rebounding margin ranks third in the nation. And want second-chance opportunities? The Aggies have snatched 135 more offensive rebounds than their opponents this season.
Want more? Against a physical Big 10 team like the Hoosiers, it'll play into New Mexico State's hands, as the Aggies lead the nation in free throw attempts per game.
Now I know the Hoosiers have played superior competition and overall have the better talent, but this is the perfect spot for the Aggies to attack that inside-outside game, especially since the Hoosiers lost senior guard Verdell Jones to a torn ACL in the Big Ten tournament.
I'm taking the points in this one.
1♦ NEW MEXICO STATE
Accuscore
Baylor vs. South Dakota State Over 140 Points
Baylor is favored by 8 points by Bookmakers, and even though AccuScore projects the line to be only 6 I would stay away from this game for a couple reasons. The Bears are a long and athletic team, exactly the kind of high-major school that often dominates a smaller low-major team like the Jackrabbits simply on athleticism alone. South Dakota State however might have the best college player in this game in guard Nate Wolters and a very efficient offense. That is why I rather like the Over in this game rather than taking a side against the spread. The average over-under line for this game is 143 points in simulations. The AccuScore record for totals in SDSU games is 15-9 (62.5 percent) and 15-10 (60 percent) in Baylor games.
Colorado +5.5 vs. UNLV
Tad Boyle is one of the best coaches in the West, which probably means most of the country doesn’t know about him. Colorado really has very little basketball history, but has won 20 games in back-to-back seasons including a Pac-12 tournament championship this season. The Buffs are also one of the few teams to have a natural match-up for UNLV’s Mike Moser in Andre Roberson. That alone makes me optimistic about the Buffs. The AccuScore sim line is just -4 in favor of UNLV. The computer ATS record in Colorado games is 18-11 (62.1 percent) and 17-13 (56.7 percent) in UNLV games.
Montana +9.5 vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin ranks second to last (344 out of 345) in Division 1 in adjusted tempo. Montana is slower than average as well which means possessions, shots, and points will be at a premium just because of both teams’ style of play. That makes winning by double-digits a difficult proposition especially since Montana does have talent particularly with guard Will Cherry. The AccuScore sim line for this game is just Wisconsin -5. The computer record for Montana games is 15-10 (60 percent) and 16-11 (59.3 percent) in Wisconsin games.
Ohio State vs. Loyola (MD) Over 129.5 Points
The AccuScore sim line for this game is set at 133 points. The computer record is positive for Loyola games at 14-12 (53.8 percent), but terrific for Ohio State games at 18-11 (62.1 percent).
Rocketman
Western Kentucky vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -25
Western Kentucky comes in with a 16-18 overall record on the season while Kentucky is 32-2 overall this year. Western Kentucky is 12-25 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Kentucky is scoring 76.7 points per game overall this year while their defense is allowing only 59 points per game overall and 58 points per game on the road this season. Western Kentucky got to the Big Dance by somehow winning their conference tournament this year. This is a team that don't belong on the floor with Kentucky. Sure they earned it, but Kentucky will make them look exactly like the bad team they are here this evening. This will be a BLOWOUT! We'll recommend a small play on Kentucky tonight!
Wunderdog
NC Asheville vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -15
The Syracuse Orange have declared center Fab Melo ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, and it shaved 2 points off an opening line that was already amongst the lowest for a No. 1 seed in tourney history. His influence and presence will be missed, but not in this game. The Cuse is a deep team with plenty of scoring options, and their zone defense will be a chore, especially for a team that hasn't seen it such as NC Ashville. The Bulldogs play a soft conference, which played softer this year. When they had to step out late in the season for a bracketbuster game at Ohio, U. they were exposed, losing by 19 points. The Orange have now gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite of 13 or more. Play the Cuse in this one.