Black Widow
Suns/Clippers UNDER 197.5
Both the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Clippers find themselves coming into this game fatigued. The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, while the Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Both squads will be running on tired legs, which will mean less fast breaks and more missed shots due to the fatigue. The tempo of this one will be slower than a normal Suns/Clippers game. Phoenix is 27-15 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in all games this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. The UNDER is 13-3 in Clippers last 16 games playing on 0 days rest, while the UNDER is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Point made. Take the UNDER 197.5 points here.
Steve Janus
Iowa State +1.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the most underrated teams in the country. The fact that this team wasn't ranked in the Top 25 once this seasons is a shame and so is their No. 8 seed in the tournament. They finished with the same conference record as Baylor, yet they get a No. 3 seed. Now they come into their game against Connecticut, who went just 8-10 inside conference play, and are underdogs to win this game.
If you want to talk about a team that is going to be motivated tonight, it's the the Cyclones. Iowa State got better and better as the season went along. I'm sure the committee punished them for their loss to Texas in the Big 12 Tournament, but Texas just matches up well with Iowa State.
Iowa State is 15-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 13-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, and 7-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% this season.
Free NCAAB Release for 3/15: Indiana -6 (-110, BetOnline) over New Mexico State. After three years of uncharacteristic struggles, the Indiana Hoosiers are a true contender once again. In fact, this year the Hoosiers became the first team from the Big 10 to knock off a #1 and #2 team in nearly 60 years. We have no problem backing them tonight against the Aggies, who finished second to Nevada in the much weaker Western Athletic Conference. It's been a good year for New Mexico State, 26-9 overall and winning the WAC tounament to make it here. But they just don't match up talent wise with the Hoosiers. Both teams can put points up on the board, as they both average just over 77 points/game. But the Hoosiers outshoot the Aggies 48.7% to 46.7%, and outrank the Aggies defensively. Indiana enters tonight's matchup 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and a perfect 7-0 ATS in all non-conference games this year. They should be highly motivated for this game, as a win over the Aggies would give them their most wins since the '92-93 team won 31. New Mexico State has been horrible at the window outside of the Western Athletic Conference, cashing just once in their last five attempts. The Aggies are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5, and they are 0-5 at the window in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll lay the small number for the Indian Hosiers tonight. *Our free plays are 178-97-1 (65%) all-time. Sign up today at www.iseewinners.com to receive the best free basketball picks via email.
Tony George
Marquette -5.5
BYU had a huge comback, biggest in tourney history on Iona, to get here and have had little time to recover, but the Golden Eagles are battle tested and have 3 guards that shoot it well, a pesky defense and relentless attitude on every possesion. They are talented and way under the radar this tourney and match up well with teams in their bracket, could be an elite 8 or final 4 team, they trounce an overrated BYU team who shoud be in the NIT in my opinion.
New Mexico -4.5
Larry Anderson is VERY questionable for Long Beach, and Steve Alfords team a solid team, and LBS without one of their KEY players and a short bench is going to be an issue. New Mexico does everything well, out of the Mountian West Conference which is a tougher conference, I like Steve Alford and his boys here by 8. NM is 22-8 ATS on the year and 12-5 ATS on the road.
Marty Otto
BYU vs. Marquette
Play: Marquette -5
It was a great comeback win for BYU in its play-in game against Iona but plenty of red flags suggest this team simply isn’t ready for the step up in class they’ll face in this matchup. For the Cougars, their Cinderella story ends today.
BYU repeatedly failed when stepping up against quality opponents in 2011-12. They were blown out by the two best teams in the WCC every time they traveled; the Cougars suffered a 19-point loss to Gonzaga in the conference tournament, an 11-point loss to the Zags away and a 16-point loss to St. Mary’s away. Their one big step up away from home against a “power conference” school? A 17-point loss to Wisconsin.
We should note that’s the same Wisconsin team that got beat down by Marquette in Madison earlier this year. The Golden Eagles will have the two best players on the court in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. They’ll bring the better defense to the table which is especially impressive considering they faced a much more difficult schedule. This is a team that will harass the ball and force turnovers, bad news for BYU who just committed 20 against Iona.
And Marquette brings a toughness and maturity that comes not just from banging in the Big East all year but also from a strong tournament run a season ago with much the same roster that knocked off both Xavier and Syracuse in the Big Dance.
The buy back on this game seems unwarranted to me. We’ll jump in with the Golden Eagles.
WUNDERDOG
Colorado at New Jersey
Pick: Over 5
The Colorado Avalanche have been playing very good hockey as their offense has really come to life. The Avalanche have scored 20 times in their last five games, averaging 4 goals per game in the process. Overall, the five games have seen 33 pucks tickle the net for 6.6 per contest. The New jersey Devils haven't been shy on the offensive end either, as they have tallied 3 or more goals in 15 of their last 22 outings. They were shutout in their last game for just the fourth time all season, but after the first three shutouts they have netted the puck 11 times in their next game at almost 4 per contest. The OVER has ruled the day when the Devils play a losing team at home at 8-3-1 in the last 12, while Colorado is 5-0 to the OVER in their last five as a dog. Play the OVER.
OC Dooley
Syracuse -15.5
Of course the big early story regarding the opening day of the NCAA tournament has surrounded suspension of Syracuse center Fab Melo who for a second time this campaign has been nailed by academics. The Orangemen have seemingly been dodging bullets for the entire season beginning with the dismissal of associate head coach Bernie Fine on alleged sexual molestation charges. That was followed by an internal investigation regarding drug policy and now the academic suspension of a star center. What this has caused is deflation on a money-line that opened at most offshore locales up at the 17-point plateau. Since North Carolina-Asheville does not have a starter taller than 6’5” in stature, one would think the suspension of Fab Melo helps the underdog. But I want to take all of you back to the Big South Championship game when UNC-Asheville had the benefit of playing on their own home floor against a very low #7 seed. Thus this particular underdog has not been tested and this same squad a year ago in the NCAA Tournament lost 71-47 against another opponent (Pittsburgh) from the Big East conference. I am aware that Syracuse is on a current 1-6 spread slide and that the offense has been held in the 50’s three different times in the past five outings, but in a strange way that has helped give us line value in this midday tournament affair
NHL Predictions
Nashville Predators +123
Nashville has won three straight games, including their latest a 5-4 shootout victory in Phoenix on Monday night. The Predators are 41-21-7 on the season, and a very respectable 18-13-2 on the road. San Jose is coming off a OT loss in Calgary on Tuesday, and have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The lone victory was a 3-2 win over the Oilers on Monday. The Sharks have fallen way off after just 3 victories in their last 15 games. San Jose is 34-25-10 on the season and 19-11-3 at home. The 78 points put the Sharks in 9th place in the Western Conference. Over their last 10 games the Sharks are averaging just 1.70 goals per game (and 2.70 against). The Preds are averaging 3.40 goals per game in their last 10 and 2.40 against. These two teams have met three times this season, with the Predators winning 2 of the 3. The Sharks won the first meeting in October 3-1, then the Predators went on to win 4-3 in San Jose in November and more recently 6-2 at home at the end of February. Note that the Predators are 25-7 in their last 32 vs Western Conference opponents while the Sharks are just 1-10 in their last 11 vs Western Conference teams. Also note that Nashville is 14-3 in their last 17 vs a team with a losing record. The Sharks aren’t playing good hockey lately, while the Predators have been playing stellar for a while now. Nashville as a decent size underdog here looks like a great bet. Take the Preds to win.
Sharky Sports
Long Beach State +4
I’ve had my eyes set on this LBS team all season, and I think this is the time where they show the entire country how under-rated they really are. If you’ve never seen this Long Beach State team, here’s what you’re missing out on. This is a team who played probably the #2 or #3 toughest non-conference schedule. All on the road, they played at Louisville (they lost by 13 but were down only 5 late but couldn’t knock down their 3’s all game), at Kansas (they lost by only 8 against one of the toughest teams in the country who dominates at home. what is really impressive here was their resiliency as they were down 19 twice and cut it down to 4), at UNC (they lost by only 6, and you guys know how tough UNC is at home. somehow they managed to out-rebound Zeller and Henson), and picked up a huge win against Xavier. To think this team is going to come out scared and intimidated against New Mexico after that type of schedule is simply crazy. If this game is televised, you guys have to tune in and watch Long Beach State’s point guard Casper Ware. This kid is so incredibly talented, so dynamic, and so versatile he really keeps defenses on their toes with his ability to drive and his ability to drain outside contested shots. He not only leads the team in points at 17.4 a game, but he also leads the team in assists. He should be a handful for New Mexico if he is having a good game. In addition to Ware, they have a great spot-up outside shooter in Larry Anderson, draining three’s at a ridiculous 42% for the year. To counter this outside attack, add the consistent double-double down low of T.J. Robinson (averaging 12 points and 10 rebounds per game) combined with the size and physicality of Eugene Phelps. To be completely honest, I haven’t seen much of New Mexico this year and don’t know too much about their team, but I think this match-up poses all sorts of problems for them. Lastly, this Long Beach State team is a very veteran ball club. The starting line-up is 4 seniors and a junior. To combine this type of poise and experience with the experience gained from that brutally tough non-conference schedule is indispensable. This team is built to be the “cinderella” team of this year, whether they live up to it or not is still up in the air. Either way, I love this team and there is value in this ML.
Rob Veno
Long Beach State vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico -4
I’ll side here with the red hot ascending Lobos who are now 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games. All 12 of those SU wins were by five points or more and by an average of 18.3 points per game so don’t mind laying the asking price here. Matchups are favorable for New Mexico in this one as PF Drew Gordon figures to have his way down low with the LBSU bigs T.J. Robinson and Eugene Phelps. Neither is used to seeing the physical likes of Gordon on the low blocks and it was problematic the last time the 49ers saw a player like this when Kansas’ Thomas Robinson went for 26 points on 10-14 shooting. The subtraction of a 100% healthy 6’5” swingman Larry Anderson (Big West Defensive Player) truly hurts Long Beach and HC Dan Monson made mention of how limited they now are in a multitude of areas earlier this week. Expect New Mexico HC Steve Alford to focus his intense defensive troops on bottling up 49ers star PG Casper Ware who is definitely their lead option offensively. UNM has the quickness and length to harass Ware which could become frustrating for him. Expect New Mexico’s quartet of guards who all shoot 36% or better from beyond the arc to combine with Gordon down low and provide too many scoring options for Long Beach to handle. Lobos also have the luxury of their three best players shooting 75% or better from the free throw line which can seal the deal if necessary.