Bryan Leonard
Stony Brook vs Kentucky
Play: Stony Brook +14
The Seawolves are 26-6 on the season and nobody is giving them any chance of competing with the Wildcats here. This despite an 11-5 mark away from home. This team has already faced Vanderbilt and Notre Dame on the road, two teams playing in the Big Dance. While Stony Brook did not win either of those games this team has the ability to keep this one close.
Kentucky did virtually all its damage this year in Rupp Arena. 17-0 at home and 9-8 on neutral and away courts. Losses to four teams who did not even make the Big Dance. The Wildcats just played three straight games including two in which it trailed much of the game, in order to win the SEC Tourney. Now with a possible matchup with Indiana on deck these young kids cannot be fully focused to take on a no name team like Stony Brook.
DAVE COKIN
CHATTANOOGA VS INDIANA
PLAY: CHATTANOOGA +12
This has been a very good season for Indiana. I thought the Hoosiers were being overrated by many prognosticators prior to the start of the campaign and was proven wrong. Tom Crean removed himself from the coaching hot seat conversation in impressive fashion, and I’m actually very surprised Indiana got what I consider a lesser seed than they warranted.
But the Hoosiers loss as far as seeding goes might work out to be my gain. I like this Chattanooga team, and more importantly, I like the way the Mocs match up with Indiana.
Make no mistake, Indiana is the better squad here. Troy Williams and Yogi Ferrell are liable to be the two best players on the floor today and I don’t see Chat being able to shut that dynamic duo down.
But at the same time, I like the underdog’s chances of displaying plenty of good stuff today as well. Justin Tuoyo can be a real handful as long as he avoids foul trouble and can stay on the floor, and Tre’ McLean is a very steady contributor who is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the surroundings.
As for how this unfolds, I feel strongly that the Mocs are going to try their best to push the ball into the paint whenever possible. The Indiana defense is configured to protect the wings and not allow good three-point looks. That should be good for Chattanooga, as the worst thing they can do is be impatient and get into a run and jump shoot contest with the Hoosiers.
The Mocs are a very veteran team, and I sure don’t think they are in that happy to be here mindset some of the smaller conference qualifiers sometimes fall prey to. I also don’t think there’s any chance Indiana just shows up overconfident, and they’re probably a little angry about getting stuck with a #5 seed. I doubt the Mocs win this straight up, but I also don’t see a blowout being likely, and I’m happy enough to take the dozen with Chattanooga today.
Bruce Marshall
Southern California +2
It's too bad for Southern Cal (8) that it doesn't get another chance to play UCLA after the Trojans looked like the Harlem Globetrotters in three dismemberments of the crosstown Bruins this season, including last week's 95-71 blowout win in the Pac-12 Tourney at Las Vegas. The concern on the SC side, however, is that this season's weakened UCLA has been the only team the Trojans have beaten away from their Galen Center since the calendar turned to 2016. And the Bruins aren't showing up for another pasting in Raleigh, where dangerous Providence (9) awaits instead. Dangerous, yes, are the Friars. And we do concede that G Kris Dunn and F Ben Bentil are probably the best NBA prospects on the floor. But if Providence owns the 1-2 best players in this game, the better numbers 3-4-5-6-7 probably belong to the active Trojans and their collection of athletes that combine size, speed, and quickness, all detonated by go-go G Jordan McLaughlin (13.4 ppg) and a variety of other weapons, including slasher-deluxe 6-4 Julian Jacobs (11.8 ppg) and spot-shooter supreme, former UNLV transfer Katin Reinhardt (12 ppg and 38% triples). Indeed, the Trojans have the same look as HC Andy Enfield's "Dunk City" from Florida Gulf Coast, also because of sorts such as mobile 6-10 frosh Bennie Boatwright, one of Enfield's six DD scorers. Depth is not a Providence forte, so if strength in numbers determine this outcome, it's advantage SC...though Enfield might want to convince his players that they're facing UCLA instead.
Ray Monohan
Blazers vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -11.5
The Spurs take on Portland on Thursday night and they've just been absolutely unreal at home this season. The last game against the Clippers is a prime example of how good this team is inside the AT&T Center. The Spurs looked poor for 3 quarters and held a slim lead entering the 4th quarter.
They then took off and made a scene by scoring 39 points in the 4th quarter and pushed the lead to and win to 21. The Spurs are a perfect 33-0 at home and 21-12 ATS in their home tenure.
On the other side of things, Portland has struggled on the road going 14-21.
Some trends to consider. Trail Blazers are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio.
With the struggles Portland has against the Spurs, laying the double digit number here is no problem. Expect a very lopsided win here.
Rob Vinciletti
Austin Peay vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas -26
Kansas should coast in this game and they fit a solid Tournament system that plays on First round favorites if both teams scored 80 or more points in their last game and our team has a win percentage of .800 or higher and the opponent is .700 or less. Austin Peay has won 4 straight as a dog to get here and fir a bevy of different Tournament systems all that plays against teams that are off 2 underdog wins let alone 4. Kansas has covered 8 of the last 10 vs non conference teams. Look for Kansas to get the win and cover.
Scott Spreitzer
Wichita State vs. Arizona
Play: Wichita State +2
I'm recommending a play on Wichita State plus points on Thursday evening. The Shockers started slowly this season with injuries to a couple of players, including their leader, Fred VanVleet. They have flown a tad under the radar for most of the season. Remember, the Shockers were an Elite-8 pick and a popular Final-4 preseason pick by a lot of talking heads. They looked a little rusty and sluggish in their opener on Tuesday, but once things kicked into gear, Wichita State went on a run, outscoring Vanderbilt, 20-2 down the stretch. Arizona wants a high scoring game, but they're going to face an in-your-shirt style of man-to-man defense that few teams can offer (7.2 steals per game). The Wildcats also like to feed off of other teams mistakes, but Wichita State makes very few on the offensive end. Defensively, the Shockers have forced a fantastic 0.62 assists/turnover ratio, with their opponents averaging over 14 turnovers per game and less than 10 assists per game. And while the Mo-Valley entry is on a 17-6 ATS run, overall, the Wildcats are on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball. I'm betting the Mo-Valley rep moves on. I'm recommending a play on Wichita State plus the points.
Teddy Covers
Iona vs. Iowa State
Play: Over 166½
Teddy goes into the Big Dance on a huge All Sports winning streak, 35-17 (67%) over the past three weeks. He is 6-1 with his last seven Big Ticket Reports, 29-12 (71%) since October – making money, plain and simple. Go for the 4-0 Thursday Sweep with Teddy’s top rated NCAA Tournament winners!
We’ve got two teams that love to run, pushing the pace at every opportunity – this is the highest total (by a fairly wide margin) of the first round for a reason! And it’s the type of game where the loser can be expected to get into the 80’s, if not higher!
Both squads rank among the Top 35 in the country when it comes to tempo; with each team averaging less than 16 seconds per possession. And when two teams like this get together, it’s a track meet, Throw in the early start time and the mile high altitude and we can expect defense to be optional for extended stretches of this ballgame.
The Gaels have scored 78+ in nine of their last ten games; lighting up the scoreboard even against opponents who were trying to slow them down. When they faced another uptempo opponent – Fairfield, for example – the Gaels scored 91 and lost. In their first matchup with Monmouth, the Gaels scored 102 in regulation and lost. In fact, in ten Iona games with a total of 158 or higher, they went 8-2 to the Over; playing even faster than the betting markets could account for.
One thing Iona does not do much of, however, is play defense. Iowa State has spent the better part of the last three months slogging it out in halfcourt sets against one elite Big 12 defense after the next. The Gaels don’t play D like Oklahoma , Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M or West Virginia; a HUGE step down in defensive class for an exceptional offensive squad; ranked #3 in the country by KenPom in offensive efficiency.
The Cyclones hung 80+ eleven times in Big 12 play against those quality defenses on the heels of scoring 80+ seven times in their first eight non-conference games. Heck, this team got to 160 against Northern Iowa and Cincinnati in back-2-back games, two teams at the very slow end of any pace rankings. This one’s gonna be fun to watch!
Jack Jones
Iona vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa St -7.5
Many felt that the Iowa State Cyclones were going to be a national title contender once the season finished last year. They had pretty much everyone coming back, and Fred Hoiberg was still in town. But Hoiberg bolted for the Chicago Bulls, and Steve Prohm was left with an unenviable task of replacing him.
Iowa State (21-11) certainly did not live up to expectations this year. Of course, it hurt that Naz Long suffered a season-ending hip injury early in the season. The Cyclones wound up finishing in a tie for 5th place in the Big 12 when they were expected to compete for a regular season championship. They then promptly lost to Oklahoma in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.
But there’s no question in my mind this team is better than its record. Iowa State suffered seven of its 11 losses by 5 points or less, and all 11 losses came by 10 points or fewer, so it was in every game it played in. It also went 0-3 in overtime games. The Cyclones just weren't fortunate in close games this season, plain and simple.
While they lack depth on the bench, which could have been a reason for their struggles in close games, the Cyclones arguably have the best starting five in the country. They are one of only two teams to have six players averaging in double-figures scoring. Georges Niang (19.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg) is the toughest matchup in the country, and Monte Morris (13.9 ppg, 6.9 apg) is one of the best guards in the land.
Abdel Nader (13.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg), Jameel McKay (11.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.8 bpg), Matt Thomas (10.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Deonte Burton (10.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg) are the other four players averaging double figures. The Cyclones are the third-most efficient offensive team in the country.
Iona is a trendy upset pick, which I believe is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Gaels went just 6-6 in non-conference games this season. They lost by 25 at Valparaiso and by 20 at Oregon State. They also lost at home to both Akron and UC-Santa Barbara.
Iowa State is 51-29 ATS in its last 80 March games. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. After getting upset by UAB in the first round last year, the Cyclones will be focused and ready to go Thursday. They have been thinking about that loss for 365 days and will not let it happen again.
Plays against Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IONA) – after 4 or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1997. Iowa State is one of the smallest favorites of the 1-4 seeds in the field, and as a result there is some value here.
Tony Karpinski
Butler vs. Texas Tech
Play: Butler -4
Kelan Martin plays hard, and changes the game with his scoring and rebounding ability. Butler has played some really good competition this season in the NCAA, and Martin has been strong all year. Texas Tech has struggled shooting the ball with consistency, only hitting 44% on the season, and do not rebound on the defensive glass well enough to keep Butler quiet with the opportunity to get some second chance points. Butler is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games Butler takes care of business and wins this one by double digits on Thursday afternoon.
Jimmy Boyd
NC-Wilmington +10½
It's no secret that the Blue Devils are one of the most publicly backed teams in college basketball. While this might seem like a small line, you can count on it being inflated by a couple points in favor of Duke.
Not only do I think the Seahawks are capable of keeping this game within the number, but an outright win isn't out of the question. It's not like we haven't seen Duke get upset early in recent years. Wilmington won both the CAA regular-season and tournament titles. They didn't play much of a non-conference schedule, but they did go on the road and lost by just 5-points at Georgetown.
The keys to why I think the Seahawks can keep this game close, starts with Duke not being a great defensive team. The Blue Devils gave up 72.1 ppg (75.7 when not playing at home). Duke is also not a deep team and don't have an elite point guard. The Blue Devils also struggled against teams who apply pressure. Wilmington is coached by former Louisville assistant and Pitino disciple Kevin Keatts. Keatts and the Seahawks will bring the pressure and I'm sure Pitino has offered plenty of advice on how to attack and defense the Blue Devils.
One last thing to keep in mind for this one. Duke has failed to cover a single game this season on a neutral court. The Blue Devils went 0-6 ATS in this spot.
Brandon Lee
Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -9
This might seem like a big number to be laying on the Boilermakers, but I look for Purdue to have no problem winning here by double-digits against the Trojans. Arkansas State is no where close to as good as their 24-9 record would lead you to believe. Their two most impressive wins outside of the awful Sun Belt Conference were against Tulsa and San Diego State. Their only game against a Power 5 opponent was Texas Tech and they lost by 12. Purdue is simply too big and too talent for Arkansas-LR to keep this game competitive. The Boilermakers should have their way inside against the under-sized Trojans and that's going to create a lot of wide-open 3-point shots as they collapse the defense. Purdue is also a very good defensive team and playing in the thin-air of Denver will be tough on Arkansas-LR, as they rely heavily on the 3-point shot. This has blowout written all over it.
Chip Chirimbes
Yale vs. Baylor
Play: Yale +5
There is one same fact that many might not pick up on with this match-up and that is that the game is being played in Providence a mere 100 miles from New Haven. The Baylor Bears are a long way from Texas as they play almost all over their games within the Lone Star state. This game is in that No. 5 and 12 seeds who have split the last 12 tourney match-ups. Yale has had three huge match-ups playing SMU, Duke and USC before falling in each contest. They have enough to frustrate the gunnin' Bears.
Bob Harvey
Hornets vs. Heat
Play: Heat -176
The Miami Heat go for their fifth straight home victory when they host the Charlotte Hornets. Game time is set for 7:30 PM ET at American Airlines Arena where the Heat are favored by -4 with total at 210. Miami starts the night in sole possession of third-place in the Eastern Conference playoff race while Charlotte is in sixth-place.
The Hornets (37-29, 35-30 ATS) kept up in the playoff race with a 107-99 triumph over Orlando on Wednesday, pulling a game behind Miami and a half-game behind Boston while even with Atlanta. Marvin Williams and Nicolas Batum scored 26 points apiece while Cody Zeller registered 13 points and 13 rebounds. Williams is averaging 20.2 points over a six-game hot stretch and had a season-high 27 on 12-of-17 shooting in the previous meeting with Miami. Charlotte has won 14 of 17 overall.
The Heat (39-28, 35-31 ATS) have won four straight and are coming off a 98-95 victory in Denver. Rookies Josh Richardson and Justice Winslow continued to emerge. Winslow had 20 points while Richardson added 17 points against the Nuggets, giving him an average of 15.3 - nearly 11 more than his season average - over his last four games. In all seven Miami players reached double digits in scoring.
The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Miami and 4-0 in the Heat’s last four overall.
Charlotte is 6-14-1 ATS in the last 21 series meetings but 11-5 ATS in its last 16 overall. Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall and 5-2 last seven at home.
Rocky Sheridan
Iona vs. Iowa State
Play: Iona +8
Iona comes into this game winners of 8 in a row and Champions of the Metro Atlantic Tournament. Iowa State has struggled coming into the tournament going 5-5 over their last 10 games and have had a hard time putting teams away all season. Ill take the points here with Iona in what could be the first upset of the day on Thursday.
Kyle Hunter
Chattanooga vs. Indiana
Play: Under 147
The Chattanooga Mocs were a quality defensive team all year. Chattanooga should know coming into the game that they don't have the firepower on offense that Indiana does, and their best chance of winning is slowing the game down. Indiana hasn't played at as quick of a pace late in the season. The Hoosiers are also dramatically better on defense compared to last season. In the first game of the NCAA Tournament, the jitters can often lead to lower shooting percentages.