Dave Price
Gonzaga vs. Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall +1.5
The Seton Hall Pirates continue to get no love from the oddsmakers or the betting public. They are underdogs to Gonzaga despite being the No. 6 seed in this matchup. But, that's exactly how the Pirates like it because they have been exceeding expectations all season. They won the Big East Tournament while beating two supposed Final Four contenders in Villanova and Xavier along the way. Gonzaga just gets respect because it makes the tournament every year, but this team needed to win its conference tournament just to get in, and these Bulldogs clearly aren't as strong as in year's past. In particular, their guard play is as poor as it has been in as long as I can remember. Seton Hall stud guards Isaiah Whitehead (18.4 ppg) and Khadeen Carrington (14.3 ppg) will be the difference in this one. The Bulldogs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Pirates are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. Seton Hall is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Alex Smart
Austin Peay vs. Kansas
Play: Austin Peay +26
Kansas enters this game having won 14 straight games, and now the linesmakers are placing a huge 26 point chalk label on their opening game vs Austin Peay. I know the Governors are not a team that brings out confidence in bettors, but KU has a recent history of first round misery, as they have been knocked out in 5 of the L/11 opening weekends and it must also be noted Big 12 Champs are just 4-11 ATS in their L/15 NCAA Tourney opening games. Add to that that Big 12 sides have failed to cash 14 of their L/19 first round games ,and 0-5 ATS as DD favorites, and than the thoughts of surprising upsets become more prominent and reality based in the thought process of handicappers. With that said, from a mathematical standpoint , and according to my own projections, I am betting there is value taking the points on a slightly inflated line. Austin Peay is 8-1 ATS L/9 in all neutral court games and have covered 6 straight tourney games this season.
Jim Feist
Denver vs. Atlanta
Play: Over 206.5
Denver has plenty of offensive punch, up to No. 14 in the league in points scored. But they haven't been playing any defense on this road trip, getting beat the first two games allowing 124 and 116 points. Denver is on a 6-2 run over the total, 4-1 over on the road and the over is 8-2 in the Nuggets last 10 games playing on one day of rest. The Over is also 9-4 when the Nuggets face a team with a winning straight up record and they head to a strong, unselfish Atlanta offense. Atlanta had to play last night but the Over is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games playing on no days rest.
SPORTS WAGERS
Iowa State -7½ over Iona
While most of the other power-conference high seeds are laying double digits or thereabouts the Cyclones are not and that allows us to buy them at a cheap price. Frankly, we’re not sure what all the hype is all about regarding the Gaels of Iona. The Gaels played one tournament team all season unless you want to include Tulsa. If you do, the Gaels lost by nine points to the Golden Hurricane. Its only other game against a tourney participant came against Oregon State, a game the Gaels would lose by 20 points. The Gaels play a full court press style that worked against some marshmallows but it’s not going to work against the Cyclones. Iona also is a perimeter shooting team, which is a dangerous way to play because if those shots aren’t falling, they do not have the defense to compensate. A.J. English can light up the scoreboard but contain him or if he’s off, the Gaels might lose this one by 20 or more.
In one of the bigger upsets in last year’s event, Iowa State lost to UAB in the first round. What a great motivating factor that will be for the Cyclones. There is no chance that ISU comes into this one unprepared or disrespecting of their opponent. Make no mistake, the Cyclones can shoot from anywhere. All seven Iowa State players who get significant playing time have an effective field-goal percentage of 54.8 percent or better, which is amazing. What the market does not like about Steve Prohm’s crew is that it doesn’t rebound at either end, and they don’t force turnovers, either, which means they’re allowing opponents an average of about seven shots more than they take, night in and night out. So if Iowa State doesn’t execute at the very highest level for an entire game, it’s easy for them to trip. However, this isn’t Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia or Baylor they are playing. This is a team that beat Kansas and Oklahoma while losing in OT to Baylor. In the rematch games against Oklahoma and Kansas, ISU lost by just three and seven points respectively. So, while the Gaels play at a fast pace so do the Cyclones only Iona has to worry about seven great shooters while the Cyclones only have to worry about one. The Cyclones will be jacked up to atone for their early exit last year. Frankly, they couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent to run over.
Texas Tech +4½ over Butler
An early stream of activity fostered one of the largest line movements in opening round match-ups when Butler received much of the money. Nevertheless, this reaction is garnered from tournament results for each of the combatants. Butler lost in the quarterfinals of the Big East against Providence, a #9 seed in March Madness and Texas Tech lost to the worst team in the Big 12, TCU in a play-in game to the Big 12 Tournament main bracket. From these results, Butler has been a sexy commodity but it is Texas Tech that can be the great spot play.
Tech’s loss to TCU is hideous but Texas Tech also owns victories over Oklahoma, Baylor and Iowa State. Texas Tech pulled off this feat in three consecutive games, successfully navigating a gauntlet of some of the Big 12’s best teams. The Red Raiders also own wins over fellow tournament qualifiers Arkansas-Little Rock and Hawaii earlier in the year. Incidentally, Ark-Little Rock and Hawaii are conference champions respectively. Although Butler has 21 wins, their resume is far less impressive. Their most impressive footnote is their domination of Big East champion Seton Hall and early season wins over Purdue and Temple. However their body of work is blemished by Butler’s 0-4 record against Xavier and Villanova, two #2 seeds in the current tournament and the Big East’s highest ranked squads overall. Furthermore, Butler was put to bed by Providence, not once, not twice, but three times this year and that was the cause of their early demise in the Big East Tournament. Outside of their early season successes and matching up well with Seton Hall, Butler has shown that they struggle when they face top-flight competition and own no signature wins that suggest otherwise.Butler’s streaky shooting leaves them vulnerable in an elimination game.
Texas Tech is no team that Butler nor anyone else should write off, regardless of their most recent blunder. Yes, the Red Raiders can be inconsistent but the aforementioned gauntlet navigated by the Techies is enough evidence to illustrate how dangerous this team really is if they get their mojo working. The Selection Committee gave Tubby Smith's team an #8 seed, perhaps hurting the team a bit, as they would be more likely to make the Sweet 16 if they didn't have to face a 1 seed in the second round. But even with that draw, Texas Tech is a dangerous sleeper in this year's field because they have the ability to make anyone uncomfortable through the play of senior guard Toddrick Gotcher. Most importantly, they won't be intimidated in this setting as they have proven they can play with the best of the best, already beating three ranked opponents in the course of one week back in February. The Red Raiders are definitely a sleeper team right now, but America might not be sleeping on them for long.
Chattanooga +12 over Indiana
Away from Hoosierville, Indiana is just 8-7 on the year. Neutral site games such as the First Round of the Men’s Basketball Tournament can certainly be filed under contest away from home. In addition, the first round has been the stage for several low-seed over high-seed upsets and Indiana is a prime contender to befall such a fate. On paper, the 25-7 record boasted by one of basketball’s most historic programs can signal enthusiasts to believe that Indiana is finally back, but they are spotting an abundance of points to a team with a better record than they had. To their credit, the Hoosiers finished their campaign strong, winning five in a row before losing to Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament. Here is the kicker; the Hoosiers earned the top seed in the Big 10 Tournament by virtue of their conference record but still managed to lose outright to the #8 seed Michigan in the first round, where they were favored by 7½ points. This is not a typical hallmark of a team that should be spotting double-digit points to anyone, especially not against a club as dangerous as the Mocs are. Furthermore, Indiana does not appear to be a squad ready to handle the spotlight or a team capable of managing their affairs when the target is on their back. We saw this phenomenon take place when the Hoosiers had an opportunity to acquire a signature win against arch-nemesis Michigan State but the Hoosiers floundered badly, losing 88-69.
Yes, Chattanooga is not a Big 10 team, instead they are the champions of the Southern Conference, an assortment of teams cast in a lower tier when compared on paper to the mighty Big 10, but these approaches never held serve in the tournament dubbed “March Madness”. Now it’s time to meet the Mocs, the deep underdog with the best chance to knock off a top seed of any team you haven’t been following yet this season. Under first-year head coach Matt McCall, a Billy Donovan disciple, Chattanooga has ratcheted up its defensive intensity and slows opponents to a crawl at 18.4 seconds per possession, ranking 336th in the NCAA and leading to an overall tempo of 67.2 possessions per game, ranking 269th. The Mocs are just one of three teams that were projected by Joe Lunardi to land an 11-seed or lower and be above average in rebounding at both ends of the floor, generating turnovers and protecting the ball. Our strategy loves to back underdogs with those possession-amassing traits, as they lead to piles of points, especially on nights of accurate shooting, which Chattanooga has aplenty (effective field-goal percentage: 53.3 percent, 44th best in the nation). The Mocs have crushed the Southern Conference. The SoCon has rebounded from Davidson’s defection and is about as strong as when Steph Curry was around. It also features more 3-point attempts as a percentage of all shots than any conference in the country and it breeds sharpshooters, like Chattanooga guard Eric Robertson, who is knocking down 45.3 percent of his 3s. Whatever a Moc is, recognize it as threatening and take the points.
Yale +5 over Baylor
Quietly, the Yale Bulldogs were one of the NCAA’s most dominant teams down the stretch. Granted, the Bulldogs do not play in one of the most prominent or notarized conferences in the country, but nonetheless they owned the competition within their own backyard and showed that they are a clear-cut threat and far superior to almost all contestants in the Ivy League. The Ivy League champ has been a real pest in this event many times in the past and we trust Yale to follow suit. The Bulldogs lost just one game in conference play all year long and finished with a sparkling 22-6 record, capped off by an Ivy League Championship. Yale’s sole defeat in the Ivy League was suffered on the road at the hands of another team that separated themselves from the pack, the Princeton Tigers, who finished with an identical record to Yale but failed to pick up the hardware.
The Bulldogs are a freight train at the moment, as five of their six total losses came in the first 10 games of the season against the likes of Duke, SMU and USC, all of which were played away from New Haven. In these one-and-done situations, we are always looking for teams that can win games with more than just their shooting. Give us points with a solid defense and a strong rebounding team and we’re very interested. Yale happened to be the best team in the country at collecting defensive rebounds, even better than their opponent here, who boast being a stalwart on the boards. Defensively overall, the Bears of Baylor are far more accommodating than the scrappy Ivy Leaguers. Yale ranks 13th in the country in scoring defense by surrendering just 63.1 points per game.
On the other hand, Baylor gives up 69.3 points per game on average and rely more on their 79th ranked scoring offense which proliferates 77.2 points per game. Typically, the blueprint would be to play on the team from arguably the best conference in America, the Big 12, but that’s not how this works. Baylor is an inconsistent team that needs a lot of things to go right to advance. Baylor netted four wins by at least 39 points. In all, 16 of their wins were by at least 10 points. However, three of their 11 losses were by at least 18 points, all of which came against NCAA Tournament teams: Kansas by 28, Texas A&M by 19, and Texas Tech by 18. They Bears are an elite rebounding squad but they're susceptible to big losses, mainly because of their defense, which ranks far lower than their offense. We also have to question why the price on Baylor appears short. After all, the Bears were a ranked team all season while Yale is a virtual nobody to the betting public. The Bulldogs are a well-coached team that is playing close to home (about 100 miles from its campus in New Haven). Incidentally, Baylor must travel over 1800 miles for this one. Give the Bulldogs a legitimate chance to win this game, and by using the point spread as evidence, the oddsmakers give them a great chance too. That’s good enough for us to bite.
Ark Little Rock +9 over Purdue
Purdue opened some eyes with their run to the Big-10 championship game against the Spartans and nearly pulled off the upset, losing by just four points. However, winning away from home is not Purdue’s strong point. The Boilermakers are 9-7 away from West Lafayette. No doubt Purdue’s left-lane approach toward the Big 10 title has garnered attention and procured a reaction from many, especially when it appears that an unrecognizable name is slated to play them in the opening round. We give the Boilermakers their just due but we just don’t see where they are nine points better than the Trojans. Purdue lost to every ranked team they played this season with the exception of Maryland, who they split against. The Boilermakers played just five ranked teams all season and went 1-4 in those games.
Arkansas-Little Rock is the better defensive team despite Purdue boasting a renowned physical and defense-oriented unit. Everything Purdue has done defensively, Ark-Little Rock has done better. The Trojans are second in the country in scoring defense, ninth in opponent field goal percentage and 19th against the three-ball. Sure the Boilermakers may be beasts on the boards but the Trojans swarm competitors like a school of piranhas and throw off their shooting game, so Purdue better be ready to grab plenty of boards because the Trojans have forced their opponents to throw up many “bricks” all season long. Controlling the pace is critical to the Trojans success. Little Rock Arkansas is content to walk it up and bleed the clock. That’s generally a good strategy to use against a big favorite. Slowing the pace limits the number of individual possessions in a game, which favors the underdog. The first five minutes of this one will be crucial for the dog, as they are a newcomer to these parts. If the Trojans are not blinded by the bright lights and play their game, they can make this an uncomfortable first-round matchup for anyone, which absolutely includes these Boilermakers.
Stony Brook +14 over Kentucky
While Stony Brook was ransacking the America East, it was proclaimed that the Seawolves could “torpedo” a basketball giant if they were to qualify for March Madness. This scenario sets up perfectly for SBU, as they will face one of the true giants of college basketball. Kentucky is a perennial heavyweight and widely recognized as one of the game’s greatest programs. We often attack these types because their pedigree often bolsters an overreaction from within the market and we’ll put that to the test here.
Stony Brook is a team that has never been to the Big Dance, although they were in position to qualify five of the last six years. The Seawolves finally expelled the demon of disappointment and in emotional fashion came from behind to defeat the Vermont Catamounts and seal their date with destiny. Meanwhile, after appearing to be a sitting duck halfway through the season after losing to one of the SEC’s worst teams (Auburn) on the road, Kentucky would finish their 2015-16 campaign with style and culminate a rocky start with a SEC championship by defeating Texas A&M in the SEC Championship game. The Wildcats stock is once again on the rise.
Many analysts have overlooked this Stony Brook team. The Seawolves can do more than just cover the spread, as they have the potential to give the Wildcats a real scare. Stony Brook’s heartbeat is their prolific forward Jameel Warney. Warney simply does it all, as he averages 19.8 points per game, 10.7 rebounds per game and an incredible 3.0 blocks per game. Warney also shoots 63.6% from the field and he is exceptionally talented despite playing for a typified mid-major program with no noteworthy post-season achievements. In the conference championship, Warney scored 43 points to go along with 10 rebounds. This year can continue to be a year of firsts for the Seawolves, as they have at least a punchers chance at securing their first tournament victory. While many backers and plaudits of the Wildcats are pondering how far this Kentucky team can go, we insist the concern should begin with surviving Stony Brook, as they are a team ready to compete. Stony Brook is a classic monster killer, playing at a shuffleboard pace (ranking 258th in the NCAA), limiting opponents to shooting just 45.1 percent on 2-pointers (ranking 57th), grabbing 34.4 percent of their own missed shots (ranking 46th). They don’t hoist many threes but are accurate (38.9 percent, ranking 25th) when they do launch bombs. The Seawolves have the statistical profile to torpedo an NCAA monster but we’re not even asking them to win. There’s a big window to work with here.
Wichita State +120 over Arizona
We have no interest whatsoever in any of these Pac-12 teams. Of all the power-conferences, the Pac-12 featured a bunch of very beatable teams all beating up on each other. The Wildcats ended up with a 12-6 record in the conference. Their out-of-conference schedule ranked 303rd in the country so those victories mean squat. Arizona’s only tough out-of-conference game occurred against Providence, a game they lost by four points. The Wildcats also lost to UCLA once and beat the pitiful Bruins by just six points in the revenge game. When looking at offensive and defensive rankings, the Wildcats numbers are completely skewed because they played such a weak slate of opponents all season long. We would actually be shocked to see any one of the Pac-12 teams make it past the first weekend. This is a 6 v 11 matchup in the Wildcats favor but we’re suggesting that Arizona is very over-seeded.
Wichita State is grossly undervalued and under-seeded in this event. The Shockers absolutely destroyed the Commodores in the “Four-in” round of this event and it would not surprise us if the same fate awaits the Wildcats. The Shockers have a lot of tournament experience on their roster for a non major-conference team. The seniors on this team have at least one win in each of the last three tournaments including a run to the Final Four. Wichita State is dominant defensively, as they hold opponents to 38.4% shooting and create a turnover on 22.4% of possessions. The Shockers will try to slow the game down and beat opponents with their potent defense. In their four years at Wichita State, Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker have played in a Final Four, engineered a 35-1 campaign and gone to the Sweet 16. The Shockers are the nation's best per-possession defense and that’s a big problem for the Wildcats. Wrong side favored.
SPORTS WAGERS
Midwest Bracket winner Seton Hall +2034
We’re going to make some value wagers on the regional bracket winners. This is a year in which anything can literally happen. In 2015-16, top-10 teams suffered 74 losses, the most since the Associated Press launched its Top 25 poll in 1948. Top-five teams were upset 37 times (21 of which came to unranked foes). That tied for the most ever. The No. 1 teams lost seven times during the regular season for the first time ever.
We’re not going to break this down with extensive analysis either. Those will come in our individual breakdown of games. Also note that things change from game to game in this tournament so there are a number of factors that can influence our day-to-day selections. We may be wagering against some of the teams picked here because that is just the way it goes sometimes. Again, we’re looking for value on teams that have a chance to win their region and get to the FINAL FOUR.
The Midwest Bracket is really up for grabs with Michigan State, Iowa State, Purdue, Utah and Virginia all having a legit shot of advancing each round. On the outside and under the radar is Seton Hall, a team that is a monster on the offensive boards. When a talented team like the Pirates has the ability to dominate second chance points, they become a force to reckon with. At this price, the Hall offer up tremendous value. What is so appealing about these wagers is that there could be opportunities to hedge should any one of these four make it to the Elite Eight round.
South Bracket winner Wichita St +2500
We’re going to make some value wagers on the regional bracket winners. This is a year in which anything can literally happen. In 2015-16, top-10 teams suffered 74 losses, the most since the Associated Press launched its Top 25 poll in 1948. Top-five teams were upset 37 times (21 of which came to unranked foes). That tied for the most ever. The No. 1 teams lost seven times during the regular season for the first time ever.
We’re not going to break this down with extensive analysis either. Those will come in our individual breakdown of games. Also note that things change from game to game in this tournament so there are a number of factors that can influence our day-to-day selections. We may be wagering against some of the teams picked here because that is just the way it goes sometimes. Again, we’re looking for value on teams that have a chance to win their region and get to the FINAL FOUR.
The South Bracket features the tournament favorite in Kansas and they are certainly going to be a tough out but that doesn't mean they are invincible. Enter the Shockers. In their four years at Wichita State, Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker have played in a Final Four, engineered a 35-1 campaign and gone to the Sweet 16. VanVleet's early-season injury ensured the Shockers would never live up to its actual basketball ability, which is how the nation's best per-possession defense enters the tournament as one of its most underrated and under-seeded. We can’t imagine any of the top seeds want to run into this group. At 25-1. Wichita State offers up some pretty sweet value.
West Bracket Winner St. Joseph’s +3300
We’re going to make some value wagers on the regional bracket winners. This is a year in which anything can literally happen. In 2015-16, top-10 teams suffered 74 losses, the most since the Associated Press launched its Top 25 poll in 1948. Top-five teams were upset 37 times (21 of which came to unranked foes). That tied for the most ever. The No. 1 teams lost seven times during the regular season for the first time ever.
We’re not going to break this down with extensive analysis either. Those will come in our individual breakdown of games. Also note that things change from game to game in this tournament so there are a number of factors that can influence our day-to-day selections. We may be wagering against some of the teams picked here because that is just the way it goes sometimes. Again, we’re looking for value on teams that have a chance to win their region and get to the FINAL FOUR.
The West Bracket is loaded with as many as eight teams that could make the Final Four, which opens up the door for a longshot. We’re going to eliminate the bottom eight seeds in this bracket but we’re not going to eliminate St. Joseph’s. The Hawks dominated VCU on Sunday after putting away Dayton on Saturday. They are a team that can light it up from beyond the arc and they have some great momentum coming into this event. We saw a UConn team in 2011 ride a similar wave all the way to a national championship. At 33-1, we’re willing to take a shot with them to make it to the FINAL FOUR.
East Bracket Winner Providence +5262
We’re going to make some value wagers on the regional bracket winners. This is a year in which anything can literally happen. In 2015-16, top-10 teams suffered 74 losses, the most since the Associated Press launched its Top 25 poll in 1948. Top-five teams were upset 37 times (21 of which came to unranked foes). That tied for the most ever. The No. 1 teams lost seven times during the regular season for the first time ever.
We’re not going to break this down with extensive analysis either. Those will come in our individual breakdown of games. Also note that things change from game to game in this tournament so there are a number of factors that can influence our day-to-day selections. We may be wagering against some of the teams picked here because that is just the way it goes sometimes. Again, we’re looking for value on teams that have a chance to win their region and get to the FINAL FOUR.
The East Bracket might have the most upsets because each of the top 4 seeds has some vulnerability and might not make it past the first weekend. Providence has some weaknesses too but we trust them to defeat USC and set up a second round matchup with North Carolina. Providence was ranked 16th in the country at one point this season and they could be a nightmare matchup for many. The Friars outstanding defense gives them a puncher’s chance every game. At 52-1, they are worth a bet.
Will Rogers
Portland vs. San Antonio
Pick: Under
The Portland Trail Blazers have cooled off after a torrid start to 2016 and they've lost five straight on the road as points are not coming quite as easy as they used to. I think we'll see a low-scoring contest when they visit the defensively phenomenal San Antonio Spurs Thursday night.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. The Spurs' Defense - San Antonio is allowing opponents only 92.2 points per game which can be compared to a 97.1 mark for Utah which is the second best team for points against. It has held Portland to an average of 90.5 points in two meetings this season and the Blazers shot a season-low 34.1 percent from the field in a loss at Oklahoma City Monday.
2. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum's Recent Woes - The duo is absolutely vital for the Blazers offensive production but Lillard has averaged only 19.1 points on 39.1 percent shooting over the past three games while McCollum has scored 17.0 on 38.8 percent shooting in the same span.
3. X-Factor - We have seen plenty of high-scoring games in the NBA lately but nine of the Spurs last 11 have gone under the total.
Bob Balfe
Duke -10
NC Wilmington is a good program. This is a team that can shoot the ball well and are active with taking away the basketball, but they have two problems today. Duke does a tremendous job at protecting the basketball and Duke has a tremendous size advantage of almost 5 inches and about 30 pounds per man when you match up the starters. Duke is a great shooting team, but if you give them the size advantage to shoot over someone they simply are not going to miss today. I think this will be a high scoring game and in the end the Blue Devils will just do too much with each trip down the court to not run away with this one.
Arizona -1.5
Wichita State is a great team that plays defense better than anyone in the country, but I do think they can be taken advantage of here today. The Shockers have moved around a lot in the last few days and they are going to have issues with this Wildcat team that is big and actually plays to their size unlike Vanderbilt the other night. Arizona has multiple scoring options and in my opinion will be too strong for this Shockers team that is highly overrated in the public eye. Arizona has the size to get rebounds and I don’t think State can keep up on offense in this one.
Gonzaga -1.5
This is my opening round upset pick as far as seeding goes. What an amazing job Seton Hall did this year. I think this team is capable of anything in this tournament, but they got themselves a bad draw. For starters how do you win the Big East and get a 6 seed? The Pirates now had to fly to Denver and will be playing this game at a high altitude. Gonzaga is used to playing in this air. This may seem crazy, but a young team like Seton Hall uses a lot of energy and might just wear themselves out early in this one. Gonzaga is flying under the radar this season and have the size and experience to frustrate Seton Hall. If this game is close in the final minutes that thin air might get to this Seton Hall team that plays at sea level. The foul shooting advantage also favors the Bulldogs.
Jesse Schule
NC-Wilmington vs. Duke
Pick: Duke
Duke comes into the first round of the NCAA Tournament off a loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils will be a double digit favorite over North Carolina Wilmington, but I think the bookmakers are not giving Duke enough credit. While the Seahawks finished first in the CAA, they piled up a lot of wins over weak teams. They didn't face a single ranked opponent, and they failed to cover in four of their last five games.
Duke is 5-2-1 ATS in it's last eight non conference games, and the Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. We can expect Coach K to have his team ready, and we know this team handles these pressure situations well. The Seahawks on the other hand don't have much experience playing on such a big stage, and they might be a little shell shocked.
Duke should prove to have too much firepower for the Seahawks to handle. The Blue Devils averaged 81.5 points per game this season, ranking 17th nationally. That's even more impressive when you consider they play the likes of Louisville and Virginia.
Tony George
Yale vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -4.5
Anyone remember last years Round 1 SHOCKER? It was #14 seed Georgia State beating Baylor as a 3 seed on opening day! Trust me when I tell you Baylor remembers it well and they will not overlook a good Yale team this Thursday. One thing about March Madness, you see a lot of contrasting styles of teams who never face each other, and Yale likes to slow it down and Baylor likes to run the floor. Baylor off a 4 point tourney loss to mighty Kansas in Kansas City last week, and the Bears will pose some problems for Yale today. Baylor is big, and I mean they have players with wingspans and they all can run the floor and shoot. When you get the majority of the boards and are looking to get the ball down the floor quickly on rebounds, this will be the difference in the game, because this keeps Baylor on fast pace. Yale not built to play from behind with their roster and talent. Baylor is focused and motivated, have the deeper bench and quality players who are battle tested from the Big 12.
Stephen Nover
Tennessee Chat vs. Indiana
Play: Tennessee Chat +12
This is one of those No. 5 versus No. 12 seed games that have produced at least one upset in the NCAA Tournament every year except one since 2007. Getting a little more esoteric, a 12th seed has covered 85 percent of the time during the last seven year when off a victory and getting three or more points when the No. 5 seed is off a defeat.That pattern fits here with 29-win Chattanooga capturing the Southern Conference Tournament while Indiana was upset by Michigan as a 7 1/2-point favorite in its opening round Big Ten Tournament game. Take the Hooisers out of Assembly Hall and all you find is an 8-7 record. Talent-wise, the Mocs can't match Yogi Ferrell and maybe not even Troy Williams. But the Mocs are a veteran team that has a number of strong traits that make them a tough out here. They rebound well, press and play with defensive intensity under first-year head coach Matt McCall, a Billy Donovan protege, protect the ball and average 23.4 free throw attempts. That's four more per game than Indiana averages. The Mocs have covered six of the past seven times when going against opponents with a winning record. They were projected by Joe Lunardi to have been an 11th-seed or lower. So I believe this is a case of an underrated team meeting an overrated big name school that doesn't have the road/neutral site record to be installed as such a heavy favorite
John Ryan
Connecticut vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +155
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Colorado will win this game Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. You must get a minimum of +140 on the money line to validate the ROI of the added risk associated with the combination wager. Over time these plays will add a significant amount to the total net profit figure.
Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 7-1 ATS mark this season and 16-4 ATS mark the past three seasons. Play on an underdog (COLORADO) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCONN is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game this season; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons; Colorado is a solid 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season. Take Colorado.
Brad Wilton
No, not calling for the first-ever #16 seed to upset a #1 seed, but am calling for #1 seeded Virginia to leave the door open for Hampton to come in and steal the bacon.
Over the past two seasons, Tony Bennett's Cavaliers have allowed Coastal Carolina and Belmont to stay inside of the roomy impost, and I can see the same thing happen today against the Pirates from Hampton.
UVa likes to win games with their smothering defense, and since the Cavaliers are necessarily a high-scoring outfit, it makes covering a number this large a little dicey.
Hampton did cover 3 of their 4 lined away games this season, while Virginia was no better than .500 on the road this campaign, at 9-9 against the spread.
Cavaliers do what they need to do to advance, but with all of this "wiggle room" for the Pirates to play with, I like Hampton to sneak inside of the impost.
2* HAMPTON
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is Arkansas Little Rock plus the points against Purdue.
Purdue showed just how good they can be, as they took Michigan State down to the wire on Sunday in the Big Ten Championship, but while the Boilers are a matchup nightmare for many teams because of their size, the selection committee did them no favors in this opening round meeting with Arkansas Little Rock.
The Trojans do have a pretty sizable front line that figures to keep the Boiler bigs in enough of a stale-mate that the generous points the underdog is getting should work.
Arkansas Little Rock's defense allows just under 60 points per game which ranks third nationally, so the challenged perimeter shooters of Purdue may be hard-pressed to put enough round balls through the net in order for them to comfortably distance themselves from the Trojans.
In the end I see the Boilermakers avoiding the outright upset, but this one makes the West Lafayette faithful bite their nails to the quick.
Grab the points in this middle game from Denver on Thursday.
3* ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK
Anthony Michael
NC-Wilmington +10.5
This is just not a vintage Duke team this season so the line value will be huge here as the general public jumps on the Duke name. The Seahawks are no fluke going 17-4 SU in their conference season and winning their conference tournament. They would love nothing more than to beat one of the big boys from their state in the tournament and with this game in Rhode Island you know that crowd will be cheering for Duke to lose. Take the Seahawks and the double digits here.
Bryan Leonard
Providence vs. USC
Play: Providence
When it comes to neutral site games we throw away anything a team accomplished on its home floor. Too many teams, especially young squads, perform much better in front of a home crowd. The Trojans were 16-2 at home this year but just 21-12 overall. That’s 5-10 away from home. This is a long trip for a USC team that traveled out of the pacific time zone just once all season. Providence has been much better on the road than at home this year, posting a 10-6 mark away from home. Wins against Arizona, Butler twice and Villanova included. The Friars are much more prepared for this contest.