Chase Diamond
Connecticut vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +3.5
This game has the 24-10 Huskies versus the 22-11 Colorado. UConn won 4 straight to close the season and win their conference tourney. Colorado is underrated team and I think they are getting little respect from Vegas here. Colorado has not won a tourney game since 2012 and should be super motivated. UConn is not a powerhouse and looking at the public 68% are backing UConn here but this line is holding pretty tight.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 30-18 runwith complimentary play: UNC Wilmington (+10') vs. Duke, at Providence
The STORYLINE in this game today - It's always intriguing to look at Duke's first-round opponent in this thing, especially when the Blue Devils are having a down year. Need I remind everyone Duke dropped out of the Top 25 earlier this season? So even though Coach K may have his troops playing well right now, the Devils are not invincible. And I like the underdog in their matchup, as I think UNC Wilmington is a solid pup catching double digits against the defending national champion.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is Wilmington's defense. See, these upstart Seahawks (24-7) - who have a better overall record than Duke (23-10) - love to press at every turn. The Seahawks won the Colonial Athletic Association regular-season championship and they did so by getting after you for 40 minutes. They are relentless when they're on you, and they don't let teams breathe. Duke can be rattled offensively, and tends to make mistakes if it can't make adjustments. The pressure is going to be on the whole game, and it's going to be the whole length of the court. I think at times Duke will rush, it'll play weary and it will make mistakes.'
BOTTOM LINE is - Fact is, Wilmington plays to win, and it actually has a style that fits its personnel well. Everything the Seahawks do is tactical and methodical. They work together, the communicate and they know how to play their roles well. And I think that will pose a problem for a Duke team that has pretty much gone with a six-man rotation due to its shortened bench. Finally, let's not forget the territorial bragging rights here, as we've always seen Duke and North Carolina rule Tobacco Road. UNC Wilmington would love to make a statement in the region, by scoring a win over an in-state neighbor.
3* UNC WILMINGTON
Chris Jordan
Some may think Wichita State is tired, since it just played the other night, as part of the first foursome. I say the Shockers love this, and will feed off the momentum en route to knocking off Arizona.
Wichita State dismantled Vanderbilt, 70-50, on Tuesday. Now the Shockers have gone from Dayton, Ohio to Providence, Rhode Island - arriving around 2:30 a.m. Wednesday - and after getting roughly six hours of sleep, began preparing for the Wildcats.
Bad news for the 'Cats.
I love the attitudes of the Shockers, and think they're going to be just fine, led by senior guard Fred VanVleet. Mark my words, this team is ready to play.
Entering tournament play, Wichita State had the nation's top adjusted efficiency defense. Many wondered if the Shockers would be able to handle Vandy's massive frontcourt - a trio of 7-footers - and they showed poise in whooping the Commodores.
VanVleet and backcourt partner-in-crime Ron Baker combined for a triple double - 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists - as Wichita State pulled away in the second half while stifling Vandy to its lowest point total of the season.
The Shockers' defense is going to be a problem for the Wildcats, who are averaging 81.2 points a game. Arizona has folded several times this season, when facing defensive-sound teams, and I think it's in big trouble tonight, as the Shockers are allowing just 59 points to lead the nation and rank fifth in field goal percentage defense (38.2) and second in turnover margin (plus-5.5).
Take the small pup here.
3* WICHITA STATE
Scott Delaney
My free play for Thursday is on the Yale Bulldogs, as I think this is one of those 12-seeds that can upset a 5-seed. See, while the Bulldogs are excited to reunite with the tournament after 50 years or so, Baylor comes in a bit beat up after rugged Big 12 schedule and tournament.
I know seven of the nine players from Baylor's 2015 tournament team are back, and the Bears boast one of the most balanced scoring attacks in the country with five players averaging at least nine points per game, but Yale is a hungry team that has shown no fear all season, and honestly thinks it has a chance to make a run to next weekend.
Yale, which went 7-1 in its final eight regular season games without former team captain Jack Montague, has seemingly been able to play despite the distractions of him being expelled from the university last month stemming of a sexual assault allegation from 2014. In fact, Bulldogs senior forward and Ivy League player of the year Justin Sears said he doesn't think the incident has been a distraction for the team.
This is an aggressive team that holds its own in the paint, despite a relatively small front court. Yale ranks second in the nation, outrebounding opponents by 11.1 rebounds per game. That means second-chance opportunities, and potential one-and-done trips for the Bears on their time on offense.
I'm taking my chances with the underdog in this one, as I like Yale to challenge for the outright win.
4* YALE
Chris Jordan,
My second free play for Thursday is a total, as I like the Over in the Arkansas Little Rock-Purdue contest.
I'm not getting long-winded on this one, as it's purely a bonus freebie on a game that stood out to me.
The Trojans are an impressive 29-4 this season, and will show no fear in facing Purdue, which is seeded fifth, but is certainly beatable. I won't lean one way or another in this one, in terms of the side, but I can tell you I think this game could go into overtime - it'll be close.
Little Rock plays at a deliberate pace, and while I know it boasts the nation's second-best defense (59.6 points per game), the thing about that is, defense creates offense. And in this event, pushing the ball is essential, especially in the first round. Purdue knows that and will be looking to break that Little Rock defense.
Look for the Boilermakers to push the tempo once they figure out Little Rock's D, and the Trojans to respond. This one creeps past the total.
3* Ark-Little Rock/Purdue Over
Red Dog Sports
Florida Gulf Coast vs North Carolina
Play: Over 69 1st Half
UNC just finished playing Virginia, a defensive team that likes to play slow and now they play in the #1 vs. #16 meeting in Raleigh, NC. There should be plenty of Tar Heel fans there. It does concern me that FGC could have tired legs after playing in Dayton on Tuesday night but we are only playing the first half. UNC should dictate the pace since they are the #1 seed and favored by 22 points. UNC has Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Marcus Paige, Joel Berry, Justin Jackson, etc. to try and score inside and even make some 3's. UNC hasn't played a non-conference team since December 28 and step down in competition. Looking back and we see the Tar Heels combined to score 81 points vs. Temple, 72 with Fairfield, 76 Maryland, 81 vs. Tulane, 73 with Northern Iowa, 76 vs. UCLA, 75 UNCG, 79 vs. NW, 87vs. Appalachian State but only 62 vs. Kansas State.FGC played a first half with UMass that reached 79 points, 75 with FIU and 79 with Ohio. They allowed 42 to Youngstown State and scored 44 at the half vs. Lasalle. They get 17 ppg from Norella. Terrell, Johnson, Debose and Simmons are solid scorers.In past opening rounds of the NCAAT, and playing in their home state (Raleigh, Greensboro, Charlotte) as a high seed the Tar Heels have done well at the half:
LIU 95 points
Radford 87
Mt St Marys 101
Oakland 92
A few years they did play an ugly first half against Vermont, the two teams combined for just 63 as Vt struggled to make shots. Vermont had played just two days earlier just as Florida Gulf Coast did.Hopefully, we see a 41-32 (73 points) type of first half on Thursday night.
Sleepyj
Portland +11.5
I made my number for this game 8.5...I will gladly take the double digits here with a team that can win on the road..Tough place to play and the Spurs have yet to lose at home..This might be one of those game the dog has some bit..I trust Lilliard and Co. here.
Wunderdog
NC Wilmington +10.5
Tourney time is about quality guard play and NC Wilmington is loaded, with a three-guard lineup led by junior guard Chris Flemmings (16.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Denzel Ingram (12.5 ppg) and Craig Ponder (11.1 ppg). They are tough to defend on the perimeter, plus driving to the hole. The Seahawks have been in tournament mode for more than a week after having to scrape through three close games in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. They won their first two games in the tournament by a total of five points and needed overtime to dispatch Hofstra in the championship game. NC Wilimington won't try and run-and-gun with Duke, ranked #3 in the Colonial in field goal defense and #4 at defending beyond the arc. They are a big dog to a Duke Blue Devils team that doesn't look much like the defending national champions. They’ve struggled at times after losing big man Amile Jefferson to a broken foot just nine games into the season and won just one game in the ACC tournament before losing to Notre Dame in overtime. Duke knows the value of defense this time of the season, as well, and can play any style, on an 8-2 run UNDER the total, plus 20-7 UNDER against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Duke is 0-6 ATS at neutral sites and NC Wilmington has more than enough offense and scrappy defense to hang within this number. Play NC Wilimington and also take the UNDER.
Greg Smith
Providence vs. USC
Play: USC +2
USC has struggled down the stretch, but they have played much better ever since getting back their star forward Darion Clark. The Trojans have the defense and the outside shooting to keep this game close and a potential of getting out to a double digit lead. I think USC rolls in this spot.
Harry Bondi
IOWA STATE (-7.5) over Iona
Iona has had a great season but the Gaels have not seen a scoring machine like the Cyclones this year. Sure, Iona beat Monmouth by 3 to win the MEAC Tournament Final and Moumouth kicked off their NIT campaign by beating Bucknell by 10 last night but while the Gaels have are a solid MEAC team, Iowa State has beaten Kansas, Oklahoma, and more while playing in the toughest conference in the country! Cyclones are one of the most prolific scoring teams in the nation this season averaging 82 points a game and there is no way the Gaels will be able to keep up. Blowout!
Ian Cameron
Tampa Bay at Dallas
Play: Over 5.5
The Dallas Stars have a team capable of both making a deep playoff run in the Western Conference or getting bounced in the first round. The reason is their extremely unsteady goaltending which remains a constant concern. The duo of Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen has simply not gotten the job done in recent games with Dallas surrendering 3+ goals in seven of its last 10 including 16 in its last four. Even with the Kris Russell acquisition at the trade deadline which did upgrade the Stars defensively, the team is still struggling overall to keep the puck out of their own net and most importantly, struggling to get timely saves from either of their goalies. Tampa Bay’s simply possess too many weapons for their goal scoring woes to continue much longer. On the flip side, Dallas continues to be the highest scoring team in the NHL (3.2 gpg) and recently have netted 11 goals in three games against some pretty good Western Conference teams in Chicago, St. Louis and Los Angeles. We also have a strong high scoring track record in the recent series between the Lightning and Stars with the last five meetings resulting in 5-3, 5-4, 5-
SPS Investors
Wichita St. vs. Arizona
Pick: Wichita State
The Wichita State Shockers are a legitimate dark-horse in this tournament yet again. They have an extra added chip on their shoulders this year being forced to play a "First four" play-in game against Vanderbilt, a game that the Shockers won by 20 points. We expect they will use that motivation to fuel their fire in this matchup with Arizona.
Let's not forget that this is the same Shocker team that reached the Sweet 16 last season and Final 4 in 2013 so they have a ton of experience in this atmosphere. Both Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet were key members of both of those appearances and are the unquestioned leaders of this team. While the Shockers are perennial contenders in this tournament, this is a much different looking Shockers team than in the past. This season the team has seemingly re-invented themselves and is now getting things done on the defensive end. They rank number one in the nation in points allowed (59.0ppg) and number three in field goal percentage defense (38.2%). Baker leads the Shockers with 14.2 points per game, while VanVleet adds 12. 1 points and 5.7 assists per game.
Wichita State brings a ton of tournament experience with them in this contest which we don't believe the oddsmakers have correctly valued. Arizona is a quality team and won't go down without a fight, but we simply believe the Shockers have more ways to win this basketball game. The Shockers will pull away late in the second half and their defense will make the critical stops needed to advance to the round of 32 yet again.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO +138 over Florida
OT included. The pressure is on the Panthers. Their head coach knows making the playoffs is huge for this franchise and he let it be known they want to finish in first place. We've been down on the Panthers for a while now and it all starts with Roberto Luongo. With a two-goal lead late in their game with the Islanders on Monday night, Luongo let in a softy followed by a couple pieces of hot garbage and the Panthers left Brooklyn licking their wounds with no points after a 3-2 regulation loss. The Cats bounced back in Montreal but we're not going to put much stock into that win, as the Habs were flat and besides that, Al Montoya made the start. Lucky for us Luongo is confirmed for tonight's contest so the fade is on especially in this price range. Florida is hanging on and they'll be instant fade material come playoff time in any game they manage to be favoured in.
The Maple Leafs aren't just playing out the stretch. For a team that has it's sights on the number one overall pick, Toronto is gutting it out on the ice almost every night. Coach Mike Babcock won't let these young call ups slack and they are all playing hard for a job next season. The Leafs are in a great spot heading to the offseason and there's real reason for optimism for the first time in a while. It took years to get Brian Burke's stink off the Blue and White but there's finally light at the end of the tunnel that blowhard built. The players are excited about the future and it shows. Jonathan Bernier is by no means our favourite 'tender but he's been much better lately. He seems to have his confidence back, as he has only given up one goal in his last two starts. It doesn't happen often but the Leafs just might have the edge between the pipes in this matchup featuring a couple of overpaid basket cases. The Leafs have won three of their last four games and all three victories came against playoff hopefuls in the Islanders, Red Wings and Lightning. The Leafs have relished in the roll of spoiler and we expect more of the same tonight against this fragile guest
N.Y. Islanders +130 over NASHVILLE
OT included. When we begin to see signs of fatigue, we don’t ignore it. Anyone that watched the Predators last game in Edmonton saw a team that was dragging their feet all game. The Preds were extremely fortunate to skate away with a victory and now they return home after their five-game road trip. Nashville played in Colorado to open the trip and followed it up with four games in Western Canada. The Preds have played eight of their last 11 on road. We absolutely love that the Preds return home to play an Eastern foe too. Remarkably, the Preds have to play on the road again tomorrow night in Washington so this becomes a very difficult spot for them.
The Islanders have not been sharp as of late. They have dropped three of their last four with only win over that span occurring against Florida in a game they were dragging their heels in. The Isles managed to score three goals in the final six minutes to steal a 3-2 victory. They won because Roberto Luongo decided 54 minutes was all he wanted to play. Prior to that, the Isles were flat in Toronto too. In their last game against Pittsburgh, the Islanders woke up somewhat with a more spirited 2-1 OT loss but they still weren’t as sharp as we’ve seen them most of the year. Now the Islanders get the Predators handed to them ripe for the pickings. When the Islanders play their game and play hard, they can be as tough an out as any team in the league. It would appear that the Islanders are ready to snap out of their lethargic stretch and this is the perfect opportunity to do so.
Carolina +175 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. These two have played four times this season and they have split. Two of the four games have gone to OT with each team winning once. Three of the four games have been decided by one goal. Seven points is what separates these two in the standings but the ‘Canes have lost 13 games in OT this season, which is the most in the league. Put it all together and what you have here is a very fair fight but the line does not reflect that. That should come as no surprise because Carolina has been undervalued all season long.
Carolina is coming off an OT loss in Washington as a +210 pooch. They have picked up points in 12 of their past 17 games and have not lost in regulation in five straight games but they are priced like they are the Toronto Maple Leafs here. The Hurricanes are still in the playoff race. They play hard every single game and they are on the verge of being a real force in this league. Carolina’s outstanding young defense is playing with a ton of confidence and while a loss here would be of no surprise to us whatsoever, neither would a victory. The bottom line is that Carolina continues to offer up tremendous value and must be played at prices like this.
NEW JERSEY +140 over Minnesota
OT included. The last time the Devils made headlines was when Corey Schneider went down with an injury over a week ago. Jersey was headed to California without their number one goaltender and it was likely to get ugly. It did, kind of. After two big unexpected wins at San Jose and Los Angeles, the Devils were smashed in Anaheim 7-1 last game out. It was a blowout loss that was much closer than it looked, at least after one period. The Ducks inflated win gives us a chance to get a great price on a Devils team that has been left for dead. While he's not Schneider, N.J. backup Keith Kinkaid has performed admirably in his limited time in the net. Kinkaid bounced back from a lopsided loss at Pittsburgh to shut out the Sharks last week so we are confident he could do the same tonight.The Devils take a big step down in competition in this one after playing six playoff bound teams their last six games (Preds, Stars, Pens, Sharks, Kings, Ducks) as the Wild visit the Rock.
Minnesota is garbage. They're just not good. All they do is beat up on bottom-feeding teams. After losing eight straight games and getting their coach fired, the Wild ripped through Western Canada by racking up wins on the bottom feeders of the Western Conference. Their signature win this season is a victory over the Blackhawks in their outdoor game. That was their Super Bowl game in front of 60,000 people. It was more of a spectacle than a hockey game and the Wild played well above their talent. Lately Minny has wins over Montreal, Buffalo and Toronto and they were lucky to escape with a victory in each of those games. Last time out, the Wild blew a third period lead against the Sens and lost in overtime. The Wild haven't beat a team with a winning record on the road since January and the pressure is on, as they compete for the final Wild Card spot. Once again we will back the role of spoiler, as its one these players love this time of year. NHLers are a different breed and a close knit group. They love to stick it to rivals, buddies, former teammates and coaches. We trust the Devils to play a solid home game and we trust Kinkaid to bounce back, as he makes the most of this opportunity to showcase his skills. The Wild shouldn't be favored on the road against anyone, let alone in this price range. Biggest overlay on today’s board.
Scott Rickenbach
Gonzaga vs. Seton Hall
Play: Under 145
The under has cashed in 8 of 10 times in Gonzaga's non-conference games this season. The under has cashed in 8 of 11 times in Seton Hall's non-conference games this season. The total also rose all the way up from a 142.5 to a 145.5 which is offering additional value on the under. 7 of the Bulldogs last 9 games against teams with a winning record stayed under the total. Even though the Pirates had a recent stretch of overs before their game against Villanova stayed under the total, they have been playing solid overall defense. Seton Hall has held 10 of their last 14 opponents to 42.1% or less from the field. Gonzaga also enters the Big Dance on a recent stretch of overs but yet their defense has been quite solid. The Bulldogs have held 3 of their last 5 opponents under 40.5% from the field. Seton Hall knows that, even though they are playing their best basketball of the season, they need to cut down on their turnovers. With that said, I look for the Pirates to focus on taking care of the basketball here, playing solid defense as they have been doing during their great run this month, and to slow the pace down to keep the Bulldogs from getting big points in transition. The result should be a game where each team fails to get out of the 60s.
Aaron Toller
Wichita State vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -1
Taking Arizona in this matchup of 2 programs that have traditionally over the pat few years gone deep in the tournament. Arizona has the guards to matchup with Wichita State but has in my opinion the advantage down in the post. This game very well could come down to who control the paint and the boards all of which favor Arizona.