Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, March 17,2011

Marc Lawrence

Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks

When the Knicks return home to host the Grizzlies in this non-conference matchup Thursday evening New York will take the court knowing they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in this series when they own a winning record. The Knicks are also 14-3 ATS this season in games against opponents off a win of more than 10 points. Playing off back-to-back upset losses as favorites in its last two contests, look for New York to get back on track here tonight against a Memphis squad off a 23-point win in its last game. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

Craig Trapp

Missouri vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati

The perception is that Missouri is this really good up and down offensive powerhouse but that is just not the case when they leave their home court. Cincy is not the prettiest team to watch but their defense and rebounding just pounds teams into submission. This will be a slow down game and CIN rebounding will dominate this game. Should be CIN -5 in my opinion and still would like the Bearcats.

Matt Fargo

Clemson @ West Virginia
PICK: West Virginia -2

Clemson was able to survive its play-in "First Four" game with UAB on Tuesday as it jumped ahead early and pretty much cruised. You will notice however that the starters still played significant minutes as all five played at least 29 minutes with four logging at least 31 minutes. It isn't going to affect fatigue all that much but the end of that game and the start of this one gives the Tigers very little time to prepare and the travel aspect of going from Dayton to Tampa in a span of just over 36 hours is an issue.

West Virginia meanwhile was ousted in its first round game of the Big East Tournament by Marquette so the Mountaineers will have had over a week to get ready and rejuvenate. They came into the Big East Tournament riding a three-game winning streak including wins over two tournament teams so they had a solid end to the season. West Virginia has an RPI of 19 and went a decent 5-5 against the top 25. Clemson meanwhile entered the play-in game with an RPI of 56 and was shutout against the top 25, going 0-5.

West Virginia lost a lot from last season but it is still an experienced tournament team as seniors John Flowers, Cam Thoroughman and Jonnie West have been to four NCAA Tournaments. While it was said that the tigers have had little time to prepare, West Virginia did not know who it was playing until late Tuesday but that could be a blessing in disguise. Mountaineer point guard Joe Mazzulla felt it was a good thing not knowing their opponent right away so they could "focus on ourselves."

West Virginia has a short line to cover and that is certainly a positive as it is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of fewer than seven points and going back further, it is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 NCAA Tournament games. The Tigers meanwhile are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of fewer than seven points. 3* West Virginia Mountaineers

Teddy Covers

Belmont @ Wisconsin
PICK: Over 125.5

Like just about every other Big 10 team, Wisconsin’s totals ‘power rating’ has been pushed downward throughout the course of the campaign. The Big 10 is loaded with tough defensive squads, and there isn’t a single true ‘run –and – gun’ offensive styled squad in the entire conference. So when a Big 10 team steps out of conference play, facing an opponent that has only one pace – ultra fast – the total, based on those power ratings, tends to be very low.

Belmont is not a halfcourt team, by any stretch of the imagination. The Bruins don’t have the interior size to prevent Wisconsin from consistently getting good looks in the paint and easy buckets off the offensive glass. But Belmont can light up the scoreboard themselves, an uptempo squad that excels at draining three pointers, taking more than 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. And their defense forces more than 19 turnovers per game, setting them up to run.

All of this should mean points in bunches for both squads. The Badgers three point defense has been awful for weeks – their last five opponents have combined to hit more than half of their shots from beyond the arc. But Wisconsin is very comfortable pushing the pace against teams like Belmont. The Badgers hung 80+ four times in non-conference play and played a 156 against fast paced Cornell in the Big Dance last year, a game that was totaled at 126 – right where this game is totaled today. 2* Take the Over.

Jim Feist

Grizzlies at Knicks
Pick: Over

A pair of weak defensive teams meet, with the Knicks 25th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense and second worst in points allowed. The Knicks can score from anywhere on the court and that will be a problem for Memphis from beyond the arc, 24th in the NBA at defending the three, allowing 37% shooting. The Knicks are on a 5-2 run over the total, Memphis is on a 7-3 run over. And the Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Play the Grizzlies/Knicks Over the total.

James Patrick Sports

Wofford vs. BYU

The Wofford Terriers of the Southern Conference know how to win basketball games under the direction of Head Coach Mike Young. Last season they made their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance and the Terriers fought Wisconsin hard, before falling in the final minute of play. Jimmer best be on his game here or his Cougars could be a first round victim of a dog attack. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in NCAA Tournament action is Wofford Terriers.

SPORTS WAGERS

Morehead St +10 over Louisville

12:40 PM EST. When you bet on popular teams against unknown programs you’re always going to pay a premium to do so. That theory applies here as the Cardinals are high profile and they had a solid season playing in America’s toughest conference. That said, the jury is still out on Louisville. Most teams in the Big-East took them lightly and paid the price. That won’t be the case from here on out. The Eagles are no slouches. The will have the best player on the floor in NBA lock Kenneth Faried. He can score and he’s the all-time leading rebounder in the history of the NCAA. Faried’s strong presence and ability gives Morehead State a chance at an upset. One guy can carry a team a long way, as we witnessed with UConn’s Kemba Walker in the Big East tournament. The Eagles won 12 of their last 13 games and when we’re being offered prohibitive points with a very confident and determined club, with a decent pedigree in this event, we’ll gladly accept them. Play: Morehead St. +10 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Wofford +8½ over BYU

6:15 PM EST. The Southern Conference where Wofford resides is not a power-conference but it might be the most underrated one in the country. The Terriers won the South-Conference Championship a year ago, received an automatic bid and almost pulled the upset of the event when they gave Wisconsin a huge scare in a four-point loss as a 10½-pt dog. That was Wofford’s first-ever tournament appearance and they now return a bit better and a whole lot wiser. The Terriers lost five of their first seven games of the season, having faced Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, George Mason and Xavier. Clashing with that tough group seemed to have paid big dividends down the stretch when Wofford won its final eight games of the season. They’re also a terrific shooting team that ranked #8 in the country with a percentage of .479. The Cougars are big and they’re tough but they also fizzled down the stretch after the suspension of Brandon Davies. The wind went out of BYU's sails after that event. The Cougars were pounded by New Mexico in their first subsequent game after the suspension and haven't looked the same since. A BYU team that was highly regarded has apparently lost its luster. The loss of Davies has taken a toll on the team’s rebounding and it’s difficult to succeed in this tourney without it. This one stays close throughout. Play: Wofford +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Gonzaga +107 over St. John’s

8:45 PM EST. St. John’s really opened some eyes with some big time wins against some big time Big East opponents and with those victories came recognition. The Red Storm is no longer flying under the radar and when they’re not playing at MSG they’re a different team and it’s not for the better. The Johnny’s employ a lightning-quick, up-tempo approach. Off an opponent's make or miss, they take off the other way in a hurry and that’s a style that has rarely had success in this tournament. Besides, the Zags have seen everything. This is their 13th straight appearance in this event. They have an outstanding pedigree and can adapt to any style. A four-point road loss at Notre Dame proved that even this year's Zags could keep up with the nation's elite. After that loss, Gonzaga went on a nine-game winning streak. The Zags Achilles Heel early in the year was a lack of a true point guard. They thought that John Stockton was a year or two away but that’s no longer the case. Man, is this kid good, just like his father was when he dominated that position for the NBA’s Jazz for many years. Gonzaga also hit a very impressive 48% from the field on the year while holding the opposition to 40%. They’re also terrific from the stripe, hitting 75% of free-throws and that could be huge, as they get to the line often with so many bigs. Gonzaga really doesn’t get the recognition they deserve because they’re rarely seen on TV. The Johnny’s have had major coverage this season and when you combine that with some nationally televised big wins, St. John’s falls into the overvalued category. The casual bettors that come out for this event are really not aware of the Zags and therefore the Johnny’s are going to take a lot of money. Don’t bite. The line strongly suggests a Bulldogs win. Play: Gonzaga +107 (Risking 2 units).

Bucknell +10 over Connecticut

The Huskies were the most watched team in the country when they went on that incredible Big East Championship run that saw them win five games in five days and ultimately the Division title. As a result of that unlikely run, they’re probably the most overpriced club in this year’s Dance. You absolutely have to be concerned about a hangover. Kemba Walker needs no introduction, as he can carry this team on his back. Trouble is that if he needs some help, he does not have a lot to choose from. Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier have played well but they are still freshmen being asked to make big contributions when Walker is off and thus far, really have not delivered. Meanwhile, the Bisons are much more balanced. No player averages more than 15 points per game but seven players average more than seven per game. Bucknell has now won 10 in a row and 19 of its last 20. The Bison rank third in the nation in free-throw shooting, near 79%. That’s inspiring for what may be late minute points requirement. This one, however, is more about playing against a hung over Huskies team in a contest that is surely going to attract a lot of interest from the betting public. Betting on teams when their stock is soaring and therefore overpriced, is always something to be very weary of. Play: Bucknell +10 Play: Bucknell +10 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Clemson +121 over West Virginia

12:25 PM EST. We love the fact that the Tigers needed to beat UAB to get into this field and beat them they did, 70-52 in a game that was never really close. The Tigers are one of the hottest teams that no one is talking about. They've won four of six down the stretch and nearly knocked North Carolina out of the ACC tournament. Clemson lost Trevor Booker, one of only two ACC players to compile 1,500 points, 1,000 boards, 200 blocks and 200 assists in his career (the other is Tim Duncan), from last year's NCAA tourney team. Yet, the frontcourt remains a strength, as Jerai Grant, Milton Jennings and Trevor's kid brother Devin Booker have emerged from Trevor’s shadow and have blossomed in 2011. The Tigers were one of the better defensive teams in the ACC this season, limiting opponents to an ACC-low 60.4 points per game on 39.8 percent shooting from the floor. The Mountaineers scare nobody. They’re not a great shooting team and they lost the guy who can shoot the lights out in Da'Sean Butler. They're not going to blow anyone out and they can go cold at a moment's notice. Yes, they had some big wins but every team in the Big East had big wins because they were knocking the heck out of one another. Fact is, WVU lost to teams like Marshall, Minnesota and Miami and when they’re bad they’re really bad. Right now Clemson is the better team taking back a tag and that definitely warrants our endorsement. Play: Clemson +121 (Risking 2 units).

Belmont +5/+186 over Wisconsin

7:27 PM EST. This truly might be the best wager of the first round. The Bruins may be one of the best No. 13 seeds in the history of the tournament. That doesn't make them a lock to advance, certainly, but you have to pay attention to the possibility because this team is ready. The Bruins have all the ingredients: size, 3-point shooting, good point-guard play and an excellent coach. Wisconsin nearly lost to Wofford a year ago and Belmont is a way better team than that. The problem with the Badgers is offense or a lack thereof. They’re such a frustrating team to bet on because they’ll miss bunnies and go on long scoring droughts. Having said that, Wisky plays outstanding defense and that keeps them in just about every game with a chance to win. Thing is, Belmont plays great “D” too but in terms of offense, these two are miles apart and it’s not in the Badgers favor. When you throw in the points, it probably will be the difference because the Bruins will very likely win this game or at the very worst keep it scary close. Play: Belmont +5 (Risking 1.09 units to win 1) Play Belmont +186 (Risking 1 unit).

Tony George

Oakland vs. Texas
Play: Oakland +10

Yes Texas highly ranked and a step up in class, but Oakland is a solid team, #1 in the NCAA in scoring, #2 in FG% and #1 in overall rebounding in the NCAA. I have seen them play in person in Kansas City against UMKC, and they lit them up for 103 points. They have scorers, are a veteran team and if overlooked will bite you in the ass. Texas's offense has sputtered down the stretch, and Rick Barnes is quite frankly a BAD COACH. Oakland won the Summit conference, walked through the Tourney, and are for real. They will give Texas a game here. One of the first round scares in my humble opinion.

Rob Vinciletti

Northern Colorado vs. San Diego State
Play: Northern Colorado +15.5

What we want to do here is play against certain #2 seeds vs an opponent off a win. San Diego St will win here. However the line appears to be a tad to high. The Aztecs have a habit of win and no cover in these larger lined games as evidenced by their 1-4 spread record as a neutral court favorite of -12.5 or more. Northern Colorado should stay within the number here as they have covered 75% of the time vs teams who allow 64 points per game or less and 3 of the last 4 with 7 or more days rest. Look for a classic win and no cover here. Take Northern Colorado.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit in Cincinnati -1

I don't like the way Mizzou has looked down the stretch, going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. The Bearcats have performed much better late in the season, going 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 with wins over tournament teams Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette. Defense wins games more often than not this time of year and Cincy has the superior "D". The Bearcats rank 9th in the nation in scoring defense with just 59.2 points allowed per game. The Tigers, meanwhile, rank 271st with 71.4 points per game allowed. Teams have consistently had success against Mizzou's full-court pressure late in the season, and I expect Cincy to execute against it as well. After all, it has seen a better press from the Louisville Cardinals. The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the Big East. The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Bet the Bearcats.

Steve Janus

Richmond +3

I think the Spiders are going to win this game and advance, making them an absolute steal at +3. The Spiders are 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. Richmond is 11-3 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons, and are 21-8 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Vanderbilt comes into the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last seven games, and simply don't deserve to be a 5-seed. The Commodores are 0-4 ATS in their L4 and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.

Info Plays

3* Connecticut -10

Reasons why Connecticut will cover:

1) The Huskies come into the tournament riding a huge wave of momentum, and we see no way Bucknell keeps this game close. Bucknell played both Villanova and Marquette out of the Big East in non-conference play, and lost both of those games by 11 or more!

2) Connecticut is 8-0 ATS when playing on a neutral court this season, and are 7-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season (Beat Louisville 69-66 in Big East Tournament Championship Game).

3) Play against neutral court teams as an underdog that are a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament. It's 37-13 over the last 5 seasons.

Telly

Utah St. +2.5

Lenny Del Genio

Richmond at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Richmond

We’re thinking that the traditional 5-12 upset will come to fruition Thursday afternoon when Vanderbilt meets A-10 Tourney Champion Richmond. The always soft Commies lost outright as a four seed in the first round in last year’s tournament, falling to Murray State at the buzzer, and this year’s group enters the NCAA Tournament on a four-game ATS slide. Meanwhile, the underdog Spiders went 7-0 SU/ATS down the stretch en route to a conference tournament championship. They were favored in all but one of those contests. Speaking of 7-0 ATS, that so happens to be Richmond’s record as a neutral court underdog.