VEGAS EXPERTS
Michigan State at UCLA
It's now or never for Tom Izzo's underachieving Spartans and while we don't see them making a deep run into the Tournament ala last season, we do see them taking care of business in the first round vs. UCLA Thursday night. The Bruins were ousted from the Pac 10 Tourney with a horrid loss to Oregon, dropping them to 4-11 ATS last 15 neutral court affairs.
Play on: Michigan State
Steve Merril
Penn State vs. Temple
Play: Temple -2.5
Penn St should be sending thank you cards to the committee for giving them an at-large bid for this tournament. The Nittany Lions are just not a good team at all; they come into this game with an unimpressive 19-14 record. Their claim to fame is beating Wisconsin 36-33 in the Big 10 tournament last week. That was a pitiful display of basketball, and the fact that an ugly win like that earned Penn St this game is quite pathetic. And that wasn’t the first time the Nittany Lions scored less than 40 points in a game this season; they scored 39 against Maryland back in early December. The Nittany Lions are a one-man team with Talor Battle. He is the only player on the team that can generate offense, but when you shut him down, the rest of the Nittany Lions are hard-pressed to put the ball in the basket. Penn St’s offense will find the going tough in this game against a very good Temple defense that allows just 62 points per game on 41.1% shooting. The Owls went 25-7 this season on the strength of that defense, and it’s hard to imagine Penn St scoring many points on them in this game. Temple played a tough early season schedule in which they faced 5 out of conference teams that also made this tournament: Georgia, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Akron, and Villanova. The Owls went 3-2 in those five games with the two losses coming by just 3 points to A&M and 4 points to Nova. Penn St did not play a single tournament team outside of the Big 10 this season and they only went 7-4 in those games including a loss to Maine. The Nittany Lions simply do not belong in this tournament and if Temple plays their ‘A’ game, Penn St has little chance to be competitive in this game.
Charlie Scott
Old Dominion vs. Butler
Play: Over 121.5
I love to play Over low totals in big games where both teams have the capability of scoring. Even if this Total is right, which I don't think it is, there's a good probability we can get lucky with fouling down the stretch and still hit the Over. I made this Total 130 and by my calculations have a 58% chance of hitting this Over.
Ray Monohan
Old Dominion vs. Butler
Play: Old Dominion -2
Happy St. Patrick's Day! Round 1 tournament action for the 2011 March Madness Tourney. If Old Dominion isn't a covering machine I don't know what is. (7 of their last 9? WOW) They get the 2010 runners-up on Thursday in the Butler Bulldogs. The Horizon Conference was not much to speak about this year in my opinion so I believe the Monarchs are more battle tested, throw in the fact that Coach Blaine Taylor runs an aggressive zone defense that has held opponents to 65.8 points per game and I will gladly give the 2 points in this one. The winner likely will get top-seed Pittsburgh in Saturday's 2nd round. Trends I like for this one include, Monarchs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Butler is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Vanderbilt -2.5
Motivated by last year's upset loss in the first round, expect the Commodores to reach the round of 32 this year, covering the spread in the process. Vandy has been dominant in non-conference play this season going 8-2 ATS with an average winning margin of 16.2 points. The Commodores have especially taken care of business against the Atlantic 10, going 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the league. We'll lay the points here.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Wisconsin -5
The Badgers will be extremely focused when they hit the floor Thursday following back-to-back poor performances. Plus, last year's first round tourney scare against Wofford should serve as an additional motivator. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WISCONSIN) after 1 or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament, are 29-7 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this system are winning by an average of 10.8 points. Bet the Badgers.
Jack Jones
Louisville -9.5
The Louisville Cardinals will roll right past Morehead State in the Round of 64. The single-digit favorite Cardinals will have no problem winning this game by double-digits. Louisville went 25-9 this season and reached the final of th Big East Tournament. This is a team that outscored opponents by 10.7 PPG on average.
The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Louisville is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Louisville is a solid 19-11 ATS in all games this season. Roll with Louisville Thursday.
EZWINNERS
Belmont Bruins +5
The Wisconsin Badgers are one of the best home teams in college basketball, but they were just 5-6 in the eleven games that they played away from home this season. The Belmont Bruins went an impressive 30-4 this season and won all six of their games that were played at a neutral site. Both of these teams are very good defensively so this could be a very low scoring affair. The Bruins are one of those mid major teams that can really shoot the three ball and while Wisconsin shot the three well at home, the Badgers do not shoot very good away from the Kohl Center. Wisconsin should expect to see a lot of pressing and several different looks on the offensive and defensive ends of the court. Belmont has one of the deepest teams in college basketball as they go eleven players deep with no one averaging over 25 minutes a game. Expect this one to go down to the wire. Take the points.
Joel Tyson
Clemson vs. WEST VIRGINIA (-2) at Tampa
Clemson sure looked strong on Tuesday night in their opener against UAB, blowing out the Blazers by 18-points, but they are up against it today in Tampa.
How is it fair that the Tigers had to play the late game on Tuesday, did not leave Ohio until after midnight, and now must play the first game on Thursday against a rested West Virginia team?
True, the Tigers are capable of winning this game, but my inclination is to back the rested team that has already gotten use to being in town, and at the venue.
The Mountaineers made an early exit in their Big East tournament game at Madison Square Garden, but team still has a few guys left over from last year's team that advanced to the last four, so you know they will not be intimidated by their surroundings.
West Va did win their final three regular season games before stumbling in NYC last week. I think they will have enough to win this game, and since the price on this game is so small, a straight up win by the Mounties should guarantee an against the spread cover by the Morgantown contingent.
Take West Virginia.
3♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Chris Jordan
Clemson vs. West Virginia, at Tampa, Fla.
I've now won five straight college freebies after Duquesne took care of Montana last night; I have two more going today, an early total and late side winner.
Let's start with the early game taking place in Tampa, Florida, where I believe we're going to see West Virginia force an uptempo game.
The Mountaineers likely assume Clemson has endured a rigorous schedule and will now play its fourth game in seven days, spanning three cities since last Friday.
In Greensboro, North Carolina, the Tigers beat Boston College on Friday in the ACC Tournament, then lost to North Carolina on Saturday. They returned home Sunday, found out they'd play in Dayton, Ohio on Tuesday, which means they traveled on Monday.
After beating Alabama-Birmingham on Tuesday night, they had to come back home either that night or yesterday, and now they're in Tampa.
Toss out a crazy itinerary, and I actually believe the Tigers could beat the Mountaineers.
But knowing Bobby Huggins, and the type of game he likes to play, I think he's going to force a fast-paced game, will be relentelss on the ball from jump, looking to wear the Tigers down. Whether that happens or not is beyond me.
If the Tigers respond well, this will be a fantastic start to the dance, and we'll see an electrifying game. Personally, I believe that'll be the case, and the Tigers will welcome the shootout and help this one get into the 130s.
This one goes high.
2♦ OVER
Chuck O'Brien
UCSB (+13) vs. Florida at Tampa
Now for Thursday’s first of two complimentary college basketball selections, take U.C. Santa Barbara as a big underdog against Florida in Southeast Regional action.
This pointspread dropped a couple of points from the send-out number, and it’s easy to see why the wise guys jumped on the Gauchos, even though they had to travel across while Florida is playing a virtual home game in Tampa. For one thing, the Gators did not handle the role of big favorite this year, going 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. For another, the Gators are a mediocre free-throw shooting team (67 percent), while one of UCSB’s strengths is converting from the foul line (76%).
The Gauchos were heavily favored to win the Big West title this year, but instead stumbled to a fourth-place finish. But they caught fire at the right time, winning their regular-season finale followed by three straight conference tournament wins, capped by Saturday’s convincing 64-56 victory over top-seeded Long Beach State in the championship game (as a three-point underdog).
Last year, UCSB got into to the Dance as a No. 15 seed and despite a horrible shooting performance (32.6 percent), the Gauchos held their own against No. 2-seed Ohio State before eventually losing 68-51 but cashing as a 17½-point underdog. That experience figures to serve UCSB well today (certainly, the nerves the players had last year won’t be as prevalent), and with star guard Orlando Johnson (21.1 points, 6.3 rebounds per game) leading the way, they’ll keep the pressure on Florida, which is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games.
UCSB, which is on ATS streaks of 8-1 at neutral sites and 7-2 as an underdog at neutral sites, continues its strong defensive play (57.3 ppg allowed during its four-game winning streak) and outstanding free-throw shooting and keeps this one in single digits.
3♦ U.C. SANTA BARBARA
Bobby Maxwell
Michigan St. (-1') vs. UCLA, at Tampa
For my comp selection, Michigan State had a little bit of work to do in the Big Ten conference tournament just to assure themselves a spot in the big dance. They took care of business, beating Iowa and Purdue to reach the semifinals before bowing out to Penn State.
The Purdue victory is what locked them into the tourney as they beat the Boilermakers 74-56 as seven-point underdogs. The Spartans are actually playing some of their best basketball of the season with guard Kalin Lucas leading the way.
UCLA didn’t even bother showing up for the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles, falling to Oregon by 17 in its opening games as a 7 ½-point favorite. This team lost two of three road games prior to that with the only win coming in the regular-season finale at Washington State 58-54 in OT. The Bruins are on ATS slides of 3-8 as underdogs, 2-6 as neutral-site underdogs, 1-4 as a tourney underdog and 1-4 on a neutral court.
Michigan State comes in on ATS surges of 8-3 in big dance games, 3-0-1 against Pac-10 teams and 17-4-1 as a favorite in the big dance. I like to play the hot team coming in and Michigan State plays the style that frustrates the Bruins. Go ahead and lay the points with the Spartans.
4♦ MICHIGAN ST.
Karl Garrett
Bucknell (+10') vs. Connecticut at Washington, D.C.
G-Man was highly impressed with UConn's 5 wins in 5 days in the Big East Tourney, I even used them as a 20 Dimer on Saturday over Louisville, but I have my reservations about laying this amount of points versus a sneaky-good Bison team from Bucknell that comes into this game riding a 10-game winning streak.
This will be the first time back in the Big Dance for the Bison in a few years, but their past track record is impressive, as they knocked out Kansas in the first round in 2005, and then also took care of Arkansas in the first round the following March.
Bucknell has the shooters to make enough three-balls to keep them in this game, and they also have some size to contend with UConn in the paint.
As long as the Bison can hit a few from behind the arc, I don't see the Huskies running away with this first round game.
Kemba Walker is a stud, and I look forward to seeing him as this tournament wears on, but tonight Walker and his mates get a scare from a very capable Bucknell edition.
Take the points!
4♦ BUCKNELL
Michael Cannon
Missouri vs. Cincinnati (pk), at Washington DC
Take Cincinnati against Missouri in the first round of the West Regional.
I have to admit I didn’t have much respect for the Bearcats for much of the season. They played a cupcake non-conference schedule and I felt like they would crumble once they got into the heart of Big East play.
But Cincinnati hung tough and scored some respectable wins in league play and besides, I just can’t trust Missouri playing away from home.
The Tigers were almost unbeatable at home, but merely ordinary away from Columbia. They like to play at a breakneck pace, but Cincinnati has enough ballhandlers and athletes to minimize any threat Missouri has with its press.
Cincinnati held its opponents to 59 ppg on 41 percent shooting from the field, so I doubt Missouri is going to find many open looks here.
Take Cincinnati to get it done over Missouri.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Michael Cannon
UNC-Asheville vs. Pitt (-18), at Washington DC
Take Pitt as the big chalk against UNC-Asheville in the first round of the Southeast Regional.
I know Pitt has had its problems in the Tournament, but it’s usually after the first round. Last year the Panthers blew out a good Oakland team, winning by 23.
I expect at least the same margin here today against UNC-Asheville.
The Panthers are second in the nation in rebounding differential at +10.4 per game. That means their opponents rarely get second chances and allows Pitt to slowly extend the lead in games.
This current Panthers group will come out motivated after losing in the first round of the Big East tournament to Connecticut. It was Jamie Dixon’s third straight first round loss in conference tournament play and these kids are geared up to make a deep run in the Big Dance.
Pitt has outstanding depth, a dead-eye perimeter shooter in Ashton Gibbs and solid, heady play from the likes of Brad Wanamaker, Gary McGhee and Nasir Robinson. They also have the x-factor in Gilbert Brown, who when he’s on can kill you off the dribble and from the perimeter.
Brown is also a fantastic defender, who will shut down whatever threat UNC-Asheville has in terms of a slasher or swingman.
Lay the points with Pitt for the big win and cover.
3♦ PITT
Scott Delaney
Old Dominion (-2') vs. Butler, at Washington D.C.
This will be one of the more entertaining 8 vs. 9 matchups, as it pits last year's National Runner-up and a mid-major everyone believes can make a run into the Sweet 16, and challenge to go even further the same way George Mason did just a few years back.
I'm not that daring, to choose a side in this one, but I will venture to say this early tip will soar past the posted 122.
OId Dominion comes into this one having gone Over in five of its last six outings, and since I believe it'll be the team dictating the pace in ths one given it'll be playing just about four hours from their Norfolk, Va., home, I can't be concerned with Butler staying Under in five of its last six.
Especially when Butler has gone over in 18 of its 30 games that have had a total.
Course, the Bulldogs' average total over their last 10 games has been 135 points, 13 points higher than this total. And make note the average final in those games have landed on 126 points.
In Old Dominion's last six games, five of them have crept past 130 points.
So enough with the numbers, let's talk about these teams for a moment...
They're both coming into this game peaking at the right time, as the Monarchs and Butler both have won nine straight, including their conference title games.
Old Dominion has perhaps the deepest mid-major roster, which is a reason many are saying it'll be this year's Butler. That is, if it can get past this year's Butler.
Look for a shootout in this one.
3♦ OVER
Chuck O'Brien
Gonzaga (+1') vs. St. John's at Denver
Now for Thursday’s second of two complimentary college basketball selections, take Gonzaga as a slight underdog against St. John’s in Southeast Regional action.
After losing its Cinderella status years ago, I’m expecting Mark Few’s Bulldogs to relish returning to the role of first-round underdog, especially since they’re facing what many believe is this year’s Tournament darling in St. John’s. After a three-game lull in the middle of the West Coast Conference season in late January, Gonzaga closed strong by winning 11 of its final 12 games, including the last nine in a row (the only misstep was a four-point non-conference loss to Memphis).
Meanwhile, after being overhyped as a Final Four contender in February, St. John’s lost a little steam down the stretch, splitting four games this month (1-3 ATS), including an embarrassing 84-70 loss at Seton Hall, an ugly (and controversial) 65-63 win over Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tournament, and a 79-73 loss to Syracuse in the second round of the conference tournament. In the latter game against the Orange, the Red Storm first lost leading rebounder D.J. Kennedy to a torn ACL in the first half, then lost their composure in the final 90 seconds of what was a close game. Both those issues are a big concern here because none of St. John’s players have Tournament experience.
In fact, this is the Red Storm’s first trip to the Dance since 2002, and they haven’t won a game since 2000. On the other hand, Gonzaga is soaked with March Mayhem experience. This is the Bulldogs’ 132th consecutive trip, and only three previous times did they go one-and-done. In 2009, Gonzaga crushed Akron 77-64 in the first round en route to a Sweet 16 appearance, and last year they opened up by dumping Florida State 67-60 as a one-point underdog.
Make it three straight first-round victories (and 10 of 13) for Gonzaga, which enters this one having cashed in seven of its last nine games against the Big East and 11 of 16 as an underdog.
4♦ GONZAGA
Sean Michaels
Gonzaga (+1') vs. St. John's at Denver
Today's selection is the game I noted above: Gonzaga getting the 1 1/2 points to upset St. John's.
The Bulldogs have won nine in a row and 11 of 12. They're a tournament-tested team making a 13th straight appearance in the Big Dance. And they have size - unlike St. John's - with 7-foot center Robert Sacre (13 points, six rebounds) - anchoring the middle.
Look at what St. John's did the past couple of weeks: an upset loss at Seton Hall; a victory over Rutgers thanks to a pair of beneficial bad calls; a six-point loss to Syracuse. And making matters worse the Johnnies lost their second best player, D.J. Kennedy (No. 1 rebounder; 3rd leading scorer), to a season-ending knee injury. That doesn't bode well when you don't have much size to begin with.
Gonzaga's experience is the difference in this contest as the Bulldogs win outright.
3♦ GONZAGA
Craig Davis
Gonzaga vs. St. John's (-1), at Denver, CO
Today's free play is on the St. John's Red Storm to beat the Gonzaga Bulldogs. I realize a lot of people love the Zags in this tournament, but they aren't the old "Cinderella Story" anymore. They are a legit contender each year because HC Mark Few has done a remarkable job recruiting... year in and year out.
The Johnnies might be seeded 6th vs. the 11-seed Gonzaga got, but don't tell Vegas one team is seeded five spots higher than the other. This line is hovering around 1 or 2 despite the difference in the overall seeds.
I love St. John's HC Steve Lavin in this tournament. During his days at UCLA Lavin was known for taking his Bruins further in the tourney than they were supposed to get. He has taken a young group of athletes and disciplined them to the point they have become a surprisingly good basketball team.
Both St. John's and Gonzaga have a tremendous amount of size inside and the ability to beat you on the perimeter, but I think the Johnnies have the key player in this game in Dwight Hardy. He had a great season and can score from anywhere on the floor, and he inspires the rest of his teammates to play defense when the opponents start making a run.
I have a lot of respect for Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs, but today I believe they are overmatched and probably haven't had enough time to try and prepare for a team like St. John's. I'll take the Johnnies 71-66.
3♦ ST. JOHN'S
Matt Rivers
West Virginia (-2.5) over Clemson.
Reasoning: This number is just wrong, very wrong. I will admit that Clemson has been playing some strong ball of late but Brad Brownell’s squad is still far from being an offensive force and just should not win this game. Demontez Stitt can score but truly the Tigers are somewhat offensively challenged and a few recent games won’t change my mind.
UAB turned out to be pretty much a dud in the game on Tuesday getting somewhat embarrassed but Clemson really is in a tough spot here having to travel and then play 36 or so hours later in an entirely different venue.
West Virginia isn’t great but they are pretty good and Bob Huggins is no doubt a high level coach that knows a thing or two about tournament basketball. The Mountaineers went 11-7 in the rugged Big East and finished the season with a 20-11 record. They are an experienced team that plays very well together and guys like Flowers, Mitchell, Mazzulla and Jones may not wow many people but as the more rested team and still the better overall squad I can’t help but view this number as way too cheap.
For some reason the oddsmaker has all of a sudden put a ton of stock into these Tigers. Clemson is still a school that is perennially weak away from Littlejohn Coliseum and after just playing I don’t see anything but at least a 6-8 point Mounty victory.
BIG AL
Michigan State @ UCLA
PICK: UCLA +2
Ben Howland's men finished second in the Pac-10 regular season, but were bounced out of the tournament last Thursday by seventh-seeded Oregon, 76-59. Still, UCLA comes into this game with a 22-10 record, yet finds itself installed as a 2-point underdog vs. a lower-seeded Michigan St club which is 19-14 on the year. Certainly, MSU's reputation as a successful team in "March Madness" under coach Tom Izzo is at the root of this inefficiency in the market, as I would not have set the pointspread there. But I'm also not going to complain, as the oddsmakers' error is our opportunity. Indeed, since 1993, consider that teams seeded #4 or worse, with a win percentage of .667 or better, are 40-14 ATS in the Tourney's opening round, if they lost by 15+ points to close out their regular season. And, if they are matched up against a foe which has a win percentage less than .640, then our 40-14 stat zooms to 11-1 ATS (92%). Take UCLA.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Flyers @ Thrashers
PICK: Under 5.5
The Flyers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last six on the road.
The Thrashers have seen the total go "under" the number in 10 of their last 13 in front of the home town crowd.
Philadelphia is in the hunt for the top spot in the East; on Saturday though it lost 5-4 to the Thrashers in overtime.
It was a complete collapse, as it was leading 4-2 with three minutes remaining; “It’s 60 minutes and it seems like we’re not focused on 60 minutes,” Flyers defenseman Kimmo Timonen said after the loss. “It’s one of those things, you get (up) 3-0, you come here, you think the game’s over, but it’s not over. These teams are fighting for their lives and playoff hopes are on the line.”
Flyers coach Peter Laviolette made some lineup changes and it resulted in a 3-2 victory over Florida on Tuesday.
The Thrashers promptly lost 4-2 to New Jersey on Tuesday night, a game in which they were leading 2-0 at one point; “It was so close,” coach Craig Ramsay said. “You can’t wave that off at this time of the year. When you look at it from some of those views, it was so damn close.”
Atlanta is one of five teams within six-points vying for the eighth spot in the conference.
After Saturday's high scoring affair between these teams, I expect each to come out and play with a highly concerted effort on the defensive end in this important matchup; consider a second look at the UNDER in this contest.
Tom Freese
Michigan St vs. UCLA
Play: Michigan St
UCLA is 22-10 straight up this year. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS their last 11 games as underdogs. The Bruins are 1-5 ATS their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. UCLA is 1-4 ATS their last 5 neutral site games. The Bruins are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Michigan is 19-14 straight up this year. The Spartans are 17-4-1 ATS their last 22 NCAA Tournament games as favorites. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS their last 5 Big Dance Plays as favorites of 0.5 to 6.5 points. The Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS vs. PAC 10 teams and they are 8-3 ATS their last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
Tom Stryker
Penn State @ Temple
PICK: Temple -2.5
Temple's seniors have something to prove. In 2008, 2009 and 2010, Temple punched a ticket to the Big Dance and promptly lost in the first round each time. Michigan State defeated the Owls in '08. Arizona State blasted Temple in '09. And, last season, No. 12 seed Cornell pounded the Owls 78-65. Temple senior forward Lavoy Allen is tired of hearing about that losing streak and he'll be prepared to lead the Owls to victory today.
According to my College basketball database, the No. 7 versus No. 10 matchup in the tournament has favored the lower seed especially when the No. 7 carries a won/loss percentage of .770 or better. In this situation, the lower seed owns a tremendous 12-4 SU and ATS record including 10-2 SU and ATS if favored.
The fact that Temple enters this contest off a straight up loss is huge too. In their last 30 coming off a blemish, the Owls have been a reliable investment sporting a solid 24-6 SU and 21-8 ATS record. Equally impressive, as a single digit favorite, Temple has been outstanding notching a powerful 38-15-2 ATS record including a stunning 24-7 ATS provided the Owls battled an A-10 foe last.
There is a decent first round NCAA Tournament system that favors Temple as well. Since the 1990-91 season, first round single-digit favorites that carry a won/loss percentage of .775 or better are a rewarding 28-10 ATS provided they check in off a straight up loss as a favorite. If our "play on" side is battling a foe that is seeded at No. 8 or higher, this technical gem tightens up to a juicy 28-8 ATS!
The Owls got shutout in their last three trips to the Big Dance. Not this time. Take Temple.