DAVID CHAN
Penn State @ Temple
PICK: Penn State +3
I bet value where I see it and look for the Nittany Lions to devour the Owls this afternoon!
These teams are similar in that each prides itself with tough defensive play.
Talor Battle leads the charge for Penn State which won seven of its last ten games including a big victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament to earn its first appearance in "The Tournament" in over a decade.
Coach Ed DeChellis on his teams inclusion into this year's "Big Dance":
“We took a program over that really needed to be rebuilt,” he said. “Every time we thought we got there it was something devastating that happened to us. I thought two years ago we were really talented and had a chance and ended up winning the NIT championship, which was a tremendous run.”
Following a loss to Ohio State late in the season, Penn State was clearly on the bubble, however it battled tough for a win at Minnesota in the regular season finale, then beat Indiana in the opening round of the conference tournament:
“We weren’t on no bubbles, the last four in, we weren’t even close,” Battle said. “But we continued to fight. We stayed the course, and look where we are now with the opportunity to play in the NCAA tournament.”
It then beat No. 13 Wisconsin 36-33 in the quarterfinals; Battle averaged 20.1 points per game this year (note that Penn State is 3-1 ATS this year in all neutral court games).
Temple counters with Scootie Randall who averages 11.6 points and 5.5 boards; note though that Temple is 2-4 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64-points or less per contest.
All signs point to a very close game; although the outright win isn't out of the question, grab those points!
SPORTS WAGERS
Phoenix -½ -101 over EDMONTON
Every game is crucial, as 80% of the teams that are in a playoff spot right now have to keep winning to stay there and the Coyotes are one of those teams. Phoenix is in fifth place in West but they’re just four points ahead of ninth place Calgary. The Oilers return home from a five-game trip and the fans may not recognize them. Missing from the Oilers lineup are Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Taylor Hall, Gilbert Brule, Theo Peckham, Sam Gagner and Taylor Chorney. Those are the Oilers top players and they couldn’t win with those guys. Furthermore, the Coyotes are seldom not prepared. They come to play every single game and they play to win. They take nothing for granted whether they’re up three or down three. It’s seriously difficult to imagine them coming into this game to face a makeshift lineup returning home from a trip and not winning by two or more goals. Play: Phoenix -½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +114 over MONTREAL
The Canadiens have Carey Price in net and he’s the only reason anyone would even consider laying juice with the Habs. In terms of man-for-man talent, the Canadiens, as it stands right now, are near the bottom of the talent pool in this league. They have a bunch of serious injuries and will be tooth and nails to score anything. The Canadiens have dropped two of its last three games and are coming off a 4-2 loss to the Caps. That’s nothing to hang your head over but the Caps had a sure goal called back when they were up 2-1 that would have made it 3-1 and it would’ve been a different game. They also lost to the Blue Notes, 4-2. The Bolts are warming up again with points in four of their last five games including a 6-2 pounding over the Leafs in their latest. Tampa has beaten the Canadiens two out of three times this season and the game they lost they outshot Montreal 45-23 and the whole game was played in the Habs end. This is another very winnable game for the Lightning and any take-back here has to be considered a good one. Play: Tampa Bay +114 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
Michigan St. -1
Michigan State and UCLA is a meeting of two of the nation's top active coaches, Tom Izzo and Ben Howland. The schools bring quite a history to the tourney as well, combining for 26 trips to the Final Four and 13 national titles. UCLA owns 11, so it's not exactly 50-50, kinda like Tiger and Phil combining for 18 majors (Tigers has 14 and Phil 4). Back to the game we find these two legendary programs meeting for the very first time. That's really hard to believe (but it's true), despite the fact that Izzo has led MSU to six Final Fours since 1999 (including the last two years) with Howland taking UCLA to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08. UCLA has the tougher travel schedule, coming from LA to Tampa (three time zones) while the Spartans own a shorter trip. The 19-14 Spartans are a 10-seed while the 22-10 Bruins are seeded seventh. Both have struggled at times this year but the perceived strength of the Big 10 over the Pac 10, sees MSU as a slight favorite. MSU returned most of its key players from last year and opened the season No. 2 in the preseason poll. However, the Spartans never really jelled this year. They stood at 12-5 (4-1 in the Big 10) in mid-January but then lost FIVE of six games with the lone win coming 84-83 in OT over Indiana at home. The Bruins almost beat Kansas in Lawrence early on (lost 77-76) and did beat BYU 86-79 in Anaheim at the Wooden Classic. However, after a Jan 9 loss at USC, stood just 9-6 (1-2 in the Pac 10). However, the team won 12 of 14 right after that (11-2 in the Pac 10), before losing TWO of its final three games. The team's last outing was an embarrassing 76-59 loss to Oregon in the Pac 10 tourney (at Staples Center). The Bruins own two excellent 6-8 forwards in Nelson (13.1-9.0) and Honeycutt (12.6-7.4) plus 6-10 freshman center Smith (10.6-6.5) has developed nicely. The backcourt has no true PG with Lee (13.0), Jones (9.4-3.7 APG) and Anderson (5.3) taking turns. MSU does not match up that well inside vs UCLA, countering with the 6-7 Greene (12.3-8.6-4.0) and a mish-mash of players. The 6-8 Roe (6.0-5.1) is solid but the 6-9 Nix (2.7-2.)) has never developed while the 6-10 Sherman (3.2-2.5) adds little other than size. However, the 6-5 Summers (11.5-4.3) rebounds well at the big guard position plus Lucas (17.2-3.3 APG) has been to two straight Final 4s at PG. Backup PG Lucious (6.5-4.1 APG) is not missed and freshman guard Appling (6.3) is a solid player. Michigan State has six players with Final Four experience, while only Lee and Anderson have any NCAA tourney experience for UCLA. The fact that Lee is dealing with a sore knee (expects to play), doesn't help the UCLA cause. Izzo is 10-3 in opening round games and I'm not about to go against him here.
Sean Murphy
Wofford @ Brigham Young
PICK: Wofford +9
This is one particular matchup where I believe the absence of Brandon Davies makes all the difference. His size would have been a big plus for the Cougars against a smallish Wofford squad.
Instead, BYU will once again hang its hat on Jimmer Fredette. The Jimmer Show might be enough to get the Cougars to the next round, but I don't see them winning this one by any considerable margin.
Wofford saved its best basketball for the final month of the season, riding a perfect 8-0 streak into this tournament. The Terriers haven't just been winning games, they've also been cashing tickets, currently riding a five-game ATS win streak.
I already mentioned Jimmer Fredette, and while he's the big attraction in this game, Wofford has a star of its own in Noah Dahlman. All he's done this season is average 20 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. I'm not convinced that BYU will have a defensive answer for him, let alone his strong supporting cast.
This is essentially the same Wofford team that took Wisconsin right down to the wire in the opening round of last year's NCAA Tournament. The Terriers ultimately fell by a 53-49 score in that game, but easily stayed inside the 10.5-point spread. They return four of five starters from that gutsy effort. The only new face in the starting five is Cameron Rundles. He was a force off the bench last season, and has busted out here in 2010-11, averaging 14 points, four rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game.
I consider BYU to be one of the most overrated teams in this tournament, and the Cougars mediocre 14-16 ATS record certainly backs up that statement.
As I said, Davies' absence is key. With him, they're probably a Sweet Sixteen team, maybe even Elite Eight. Without him, they're only an average squad, just as we saw during the MWC Tournament, when they were crushed by San Diego State, a team they had already handled twice during the regular season.
I have the Cougars favored by about six in this contest, the additional value is due to what I call 'the Jimmer factor'. Wofford is no pushover, a quality team at both ends of the floor that is the definition of a 'tough out' at this time of year. Look for the Terriers to hang tough from start to finish. Take Wofford.
Black Widow
1* on St. John's -1.5
The St. John's Red Storm are too athletic for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Sure, this is a quality Gonzaga team, but it's not the same Bulldogs we saw back in the 2000s. They did end up winning their conference tournament and finished the season strong, but Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 9 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. St. John's is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. This is the toughest opponent the Zags have faced all season and it will show by the final score Thursday. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take St. John's and lay the points Thursday.
Nelly
Cincinnati - over Missouri
Ignore Cincinnati's ugly Big East tournament loss to Notre Dame as the Irish simply shot the lights out in that game and there was nothing the Bearcats could do to stop them. That loss should fuel great motivation for Cincinnati entering the NCAA tournament and this team should not be viewed as the vulnerable #6 seed that many are projecting. The Bearcats won five of the final six games of the regular season including wins over Louisville, Marquette and home and road wins over Georgetown. Cincinnati also won its final four road games of the season and only once all year lost by a significant margin. Each loss came to a high quality team that is in the NCAA tournament field and all to teams that rate higher than Missouri by any measure. Cincinnati played a similar quality schedule to Missouri and the Bearcats own dramatically superior efficiency numbers on defense. Missouri is a deep team with balanced scoring and a frantic pace but the Tigers closed the season in a poor fashion. Missouri went 8-8 in the Big XII season including losses in the final three games of the season with a lot at stake. The Tigers barely survived Texas Tech in the first conference tournament game even after Coach Knight had been fired and Missouri lost badly to Texas A&M in the next game. There are not many high quality wins for the Tigers with early season wins over Vanderbilt and Illinois being the best examples. In conference play Missouri only picked up one win over a NCAA tournament team, beating Kansas State and that was early in the conference season when the Wildcats were struggling and just getting their key players back in the rotation. Missouri went 2-7 in road games for the season while Cincinnati was 10-5 in road and neutral site games so this setting should be a more comfortable setting for the Bearcats.
OC Dooley
Morehead State +9.5
For those not aware Morehead State operates out of the same Ohio Valley Conference that exactly one year ago pulled off an NCAA Tournament opening round upset as Murray State stunned an opponent from one of the "power" leagues. Since the Ohio Valley is one of the first posteason conference tournaments to hold their championship game, the NCAA league representative has the advatange of having almost two full weeks to prepare and that is the case with Morehead State who has one of the country's best players who gets only limited attention from the national media. For those who watch this early afternoon tilt on TBS keep an eye on Morehead center Kenneth Faried who not only is averaging a high "double double" (17 points, 14 rebounds), the 6'10" giant is also hitting on a whopping 64% of his shot opportunities from the floor. Faried is the holds the modern-day NCAA record for most career rebounds (1,570) as he recent passed former Wake Forest and current NBA star Tim Duncan. Going way back to the month of November Morehead State successfully COVERED inflated spreads at a pair of BCS-Conference schools (Florida and Ohio State). Following the Eagles visit to Florida, Gators head coach Billy Donovan compared Faried to Dennis Rodman and suggested he should be taken #1 in the upcoming NBA draft. Today marks the second time in 3 years that Morehead State has nabbed an automatic NCAA bid which means most current team personnel are used to this high energy environment. It was back in March of 2009 when Morehead State (+21') successfully COVERED the spread against none other than Louisville. Ever since Rick Pitino has been the head coach, Louisville has actually posted a negative record (19-30 ATS) when playing a tournament tilt on a neutral-court. I will admit that Louisville is part of the Big East conference which secured a record 11 bids in this year's Big Dance, but Cardinals guard Peyton Siva (ankle) is NOT 100% healthy. As a hefty 9-point favorite Morehead State failed to cover the spread 12 days ago in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game. But for the entire season Morehead State has gone 8-2 ATS when shaking off a prior spread setback
Hollywood Sports
Belmont at Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin
OK, maybe I am using this space to not recommend the Badgers as much as to argue why avoiding the fashionable pick with the Bruins is the sounder decision (as avoiding bad propositions is as important as making good ones). Sure, I was ready to pounce on this Belmont team (30-4) if given a favorable matchup. Them having to face this Wisconsin team (23-8) is just not that situation. The Bruins like to push tempo and force turnovers but Bo Ryan's team may present immovable objects on both these fronts. The Badgers lead the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.1% of their possessions. And this is the slowest team in the country that averages a mere 57.6 possessions per game. Yet Wisconsin still manages to be the 2nd most efficient team in the nation with their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric of 123.6 points per 100 possessions. Furthermore, the last memory the Badgers has left everyone was that ugly 36-33 loss to Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament. But this team can crank it up as they scored at least 80 points in five wins this season. The Badgers are likely to play well after that poor finish to their Big Ten season as they have covered 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And if they hold a lead late in the game, do you want to be sweating about Belmont's underdog point spread cover against the nation's leading free throw shooting team that nails 82.4% of their shots. I don't. I don't trendy underdogs, I want winning situations. If anything, bank on Wisconsin's bounce-back as they are one of the best teams in the nation.
Tony Karpinski
Bucknell vs. Connecticut
Play: Bucknell +10.5
I like Bucknell plus the points on Thursday night. They will be the fresher team and I expected this line to be around 7 or 8 not 10.5 points. The Huskies pulled off a remarkable run last week in New York becoming the first team to win five games in five days to earn the automatic bid from the Big East Conference. Now they are on the road in Washington D.C. set to take on the Bucknell Bison, a team that went 13-1 in the Patriot League and won 10 straight games overall. This team has been competitive in the tournaments the last few years and even knocked off Kansas a few years ago. Bucknell has talent and is a very good FT shooting team and 7th in the nation at shooting the 3-ball. I'm not saying they'll win, but they'll at least make this a competitive game. Bucknell will be fired up about not being given a chance to win. they have some good players who will keep this one close.