Terron Chapman
Old Dominion vs. Notre Dame
Play: Under 122
The 11 seeded Old Dominion Monarchs and sixth seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish will meet Thursday afternoon in New Orleans in a NCAA South Region first round match-up. Tip-off is set for 12:25 p.m. EST on CBS and this will be the first meeting ever between the two schools.
The Monarchs held on to claim the Colonial Athletic Association tournament title with a 60-53 win over William & Mary and earn an automatic bid. The Fighting Irish fell just short of the BIG EAST tournnament final with a 53-51 loss to West Virginia in the semifinals. However, the Irish used a late season run, winning six of their last seven games to earn an at-large bid.
A key to the Fighting Irish’s late season surge was a change in offensive philosophy by head coach Mike Brey. The Fighting Irish, known in the past for an up-tempo style of play, have taken the air out of the ball so to speak on offense. Oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to the Irish’s new pace on offense, as their last seven games have fallen UNDER the posted total.
In tournament play, the pace tends to slow as opposed to the regular season which should play right into the Irish’s hands. The Monarchs prefer to play in the half-court as well, so we can expect both teams to be deliberate on the offensive end of the floor.
Opening round jitters and an early afternoon start time should lend to a slower pace than expected, which when coupled with the pace that these two would like to play, should make it hard for this one to live up to scoring expectations. Look for a low-scoring affair, probably in the high 50’s that should fall short of the posted total and leave us cashing an afternoon ticket on the UNDER. Play UNDER the total for 1 unit.
Sean Higgs
UTEP vs. Butler
Play: UTEP +2.5
UTEP likes to get up and down the court while Butler takes it slow. Miners have plenty of size and should be able to control the glass. UTEP rolled through a better than average Conference USA this year before running into a Houston team flat out on a mission. Miners have inside-outside talent and will win this one outright.
John Ryan
Northern Iowa vs. UNLV
Play: UNLV -1
5* graded play on UNLV. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles based on the model projections. Here is just one, but under scores the theme that UNLV will be able to run and shooting above 40%. UNLV is 8-4 ATS this season, 24-9 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 67-39 ATS since 1997 when shooting between 40 and 46%. UNLV HC Kruger is also very good at preparing his team for an anticipated close game. Note that he is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when the line is +3 to -3; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached. UNLV is also in solid roles based on their recent schedule and results. UNLV is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after playing a game as favorite this season. Based on the projections I also like a 3* amount on the first half line. There is no doubt in my mind that UNLV will want to put as much pressure on the Ni defense as possible. By looking run on every possible transition fatigue will become a factor and NI defenders will get out of position allowing for high percentage shots by UNLV. NI did very well in conference play and statistically has a very strong defense. The emphasis is on the word statistically as they will have enormous difficulty defending the quickness and athleticism of the Rebels. Here is a first half system that under scores these points and more. It has gone 50-20 ATS for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams versus the 1st half line after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games facing an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take UNLV.
Tony George
Texas -5 vs Wake Forest
I watched Texas play twice last week in Kansas City. They have a good team. Although I continue to scratch my head every time I see this team that is LOADED with talent and they continue to flatter, I think they have the horses both at guard and in the paint with Pittman to get over on an inconsistent Wake team who was destroyed my Miami in the ACC tourney in the first round as a favorite. Wake has dropped by 5 out of 6 and really I was surprised they made the tourney to be honest. Texas has the offense to outpace Wake here, and if they play to 90% of their potential with their bench and James plays well at guard, this should be an 8-10 point win by Texas, then an early exit in round 2 for them.
SEAN MURPHY
Northern Iowa @ UNLV
PICK: UNLV -1
I was a big supporter of this Northern Iowa team for much of the season, most recently cashing a ticket with them in the MVC Tournament final against Wichita State. However, I don't like the opening round matchup that they've drawn, and like last year, expect to see them make an early exit from the tournament.
It was a down year for the MVC in my opinion. The fact that they only send one team to the NCAA Tournament attests to that. Yes, Northern Iowa has a ton of experience, and plenty of talent, but when I watch them play, it seems that so much has to go right in order for them to win. An off shooting day on Thursday, and they don't even have a shot. Their offense can simply look that bad on some days.
UNLV is certainly battle tested, coming out of the MWC, which sends four teams to the tournament. The Rebels went 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS against tournament-bound opponents during the regular season and their conference tournament.
I like the versatility of this Rebels squad. Note that they rank 57th in the nation in terms of offensive efficiency and 31st in defensive efficiency. It's their defensive play that doesn't always get the credit it deserves. They've held the opposition under 40% shooting this season. During the MWC Tournament, they held their three opponents to 37.7% shooting, tightening up when it mattered most. That included two games against tournament teams in BYU and San Diego State.
The 8-9 game is always a popular spot for casual bettors and poolies to look for the minor upset and back the nine-seed. That appears to be the case here, with close to a 60/40 split in favor of the slight underdog Panthers. I'll go the other way and call for the Rebels to earn the right to take their shot at the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday. Take UNLV.
Hollywood Sports
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech
Prediction: Southern Miss
Southern Miss (20-13) was playing its best basketball at the end of the season. They beat a strong UAB team in the quarterfinals of the Conference USA Tournament before losing 74-64 to eventual tournament champion Houston. Southern Miss won six of their last ten games while covering in seven of these contests. Over their last five games, they have a solid +7 net point differential along with stingy defensive numbers that held their opponents to just 57.4 PPG on 38.5% shooting. The team seems to be really buying into coach Larry Eustachy's system. And since the Golden Eagles have not been to a postseason tournament since 2001, they are really buying into the process. Said Eustachy: "I think it?s a step in the right direction for the program. I think it?ll help the team. We?ll play nine or 10 guys. Our goal is to win the tournament and our players will buy in. I know they?re excited". Southern Miss was given the option of bidding to host a first-round game in this tournament. Given that it is spring break, they did not feel they could bring in a good crowd. But this program is very interested to host a second-round game -- which should ensure they are plenty motivated to win this game. The Golden Eagles certainly can play on the road as they are a respectable 6-7 in true road games this season (8-8 away from home). They have covered a shocking fourteen of their last sixteen road games. And they have covered five straight games against teams with a winning record at home above 60%. They should bounce back off their conference tournament semi-finals loss as they have covered six of their last seven games coming off a loss. Louisiana Tech (23-10) began the season 17-2 but have stumbled down the stretch going just 6-8 (and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 16 games). They were buried but 30 points to Utah State in the WAC Tournament. And their two key seniors are hobbled with injuries as Magnum Rolle is listed as questionable for this game after twisting his ankle in that loss to the Aggies while Kyle Gibson has been nursing his own ankle injury for the last few weeks. And while the Bulldogs are 11-2 at home this season, they have only covered two of their last seven home games. Motivation is an important intangible for these second tier tournaments -- and it is clear that only one team has it here. Take the points with Southern Miss.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Montana at New Mexico
Don't like the idea of laying this many points with the third-seeded Lobos, particularly because they failed to cash the last three times they were laying double digits prior to the NCAA Tournament. In fact, they are 1-5 ATS overall entering this event. Even worse is their 0-6 ATS record as a neutral court favorite or pick. Watch out for Montana leading scorer Anthony Johnson, who went for 42 in the Big Sky Championship game. You've been warned.
Play on: Montana
Matt Fargo
Old Dominion vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -2.5
This is one of the most lopsided public bets on Thursday but it is the only way to go in this matchup. I have a lot of respect for Old Dominion and what it has accomplished this season. The Monarchs won both the Colonial Athletic Association regular season and tournament championships and that double dose is always strong for a team come tournament time. The overall résumé of Old Dominion is decent with a win at Georgetown being the highlight but that is the only real quality win. Game against the better teams on the schedule such as Missouri, Mississippi St., Richmond and Northern Iowa all resulted in losses and all of those happened to be away from home. The Monarchs went a perfect 15-0 at home this season but now that it is tournament time that can be tossed right out the door. They did win three games on a neutral floor in the CAA Tournament but those are CAA teams and not NCAA Tournament caliber teams. Overall, Old Dominion was a solid 11-8 away from home but this came against a schedule ranked 123rd in the country. Many will look to that win over Georgetown solidifying a play on the Monarchs but what it also does is give the opponent the ability not to be looking ahead. That goes double for another team from the Big East Conference. Notre Dame had an amazing turnaround this season and it came ironically when it best player went down with a knee injury. Luke Harangody was hurt in a loss against Seton Hall and missed the next five games before coming back off the bench. Notre Dame went 3-2 in those games and it could have been better as the losses came by a combined three points. The wins came against Pittsburgh, Georgetown and Connecticut and the Irish then closed with a win at Marquette will basically locked up an NCAA Tournament spot. They then won two games in New York before losing against West Virginia in the final seconds in the Big East Tournament semifinals. This team enters the big dance with a lot of confidence and a new offensive system, a risky change at mid-season, has revitalized the Irish. They come into this game with the best assist/turnover ratio in the country and great offensive efficiency. Notre Dame’s patience has made them one of the nation’s better shooting teams, hitting 50 percent or more 14 times. This game will be very slow tempo from both sides and the Irish simply have more on the roster than the Monarchs and will eventually pull away to advance. 3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Cajun Sports
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat +3
The Orlando Magic head south to face Southeast Division rival Miami Heat for the fourth and final regular season meeting between the two clubs. Orlando has been playing well of late but tonight’s affair with Miami puts them in an uncomfortable position, playing the second-game of a back-to-back after defeating the Spurs at Amway Arena 110 to 84 on Wednesday night. Orlando has also struggled against winning teams on the highway going 11-17 against the spread including 4-8 against the number during the second half of the season. Miami is coming off a home loss to the Spurs on Tuesday night falling 88 to 76 and will look to this televised matchup with their in-state rival to right the ship after such a horrible showing their last time out. In fact the Heat were riding a six-game winning streak at American Airlines Arena before that loss to the Spurs. Although they did not get the win they continued to be solid on the defensive end of the floor holding another opponent below 100 points for the sixth straight game. We are going to back the host here as Miami not only covers the number but gets the straight up victory over the Magic on Thursday night in South Florida.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Miami Heat 90 Orlando Magic 88
Marc Lawrence
Florida at BYU
Play: Florida
Despite winning 70 games over the last three seasons, the Gators return from a two-year hiatus and crash the party for the first time since their 2006-2007 national title. We know Billy Donovan’s teams are tourney tough – their 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games is testament to that. It probably won’t take a colossal effort to dispose of a BYU squad that has been one-and-done an embarrassing seven straight times (0-5-1 ATS last six) in this tourney dating back to 1995. By the book, look for BYU to belly up for the 8th time in a row here today.
Lee Kostroski
UTEP @ Butler
Pick: UTEP +2.5
UTEP is really underrated at a 12 seed. They had won 16 straight before losing the CUSA final to Houston. They were, by far, the best team in Conference USA all season. They only lost six games the entire season and four of the six were against tournament teams and the other two were close losses to Texas Tech and Mississippi.
The Miners have a great inside/outside attack with guard Randy Culpepper (17.9 PPG) and 6’9” power forward Derrick Caracter (13.8 PPG 8.0 RPG). Butler has some height, but the don’t have the size to match-up with Caracter on the inside. Along with Caracter and Culpepper, they have great supporting cast of forwards Moultrie and Williams (combined 20.2 PPG), guard Julyan Stone (5.4 APG), and Christian Polk off the bench (9.6 PPG). They have scorers all over the court and everyone is dangerous. Their talented line-up had the best field goal percentage on offense (47.5%) and defense (38.4% allowed) in CUSA and had the highest scoring margin (+9.5).
Butler has the longest winning streak in the NCAA with 20 straight wins. The Bulldogs had a cake walk through the Horizon schedule this season and were rarely tested in conference play. Butler is the only NCAA tournament participant from their conference and there weren’t even any bubble teams from the Horizon this season (besides Butler, CUSA is sending two teams to tournaments and two others were bubble teams).
"Everybody always dreams of going to the NCAA Tournament," forward Jeremy Williams said. "We're here now. This is a new season and now we are up there with the cream of the crop. Saturday was tough but every time you lose it is a lesson learned."
The Miners got a wake-up call with Saturday's loss to Houston, couple that newly found focus with some intense preparation over the next three days, and the Miners are a good bet to cover against Butler on Thursday. UTEP is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and Butler is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Go with UTEP plus the points.
LARRY NESS
Ohio @ Georgetown
PICK: Ohio +13.5
John Groce was assistant head coach at Ohio St under Thad Matta but took a "step down" in taking the head coaching job at Athens prior to the 2008-09 season. His team struggled to a 15-17 record (7-9 in the MAC) but Groce was known as a great recruiter and his first recruiting class at Ohio produced Indiana transfer Bassett (16.9-3.2-3.5) plus freshman guards Cooper (13.1-5.4-5.9) and Kinney (9.7) plus 6-8 freshman big man Keely (5.5-4.4). Ohio's regular season was no better this year (17-14/7-9) but the Bobcats went 4-0 SU and ATS to win the MAC tourney. Bassett, who played for two NCAA teams at Indiana (remember when the Hoosiers were actually good?), averaged 29.0 PPG and 3.8 APG while the 6-8 Washington (11.3-5.2) was the team's best frontcourt performer averaging 15.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG. Freshman guard Cooper has had an excellent first season and while Kinney was thrown off the team earlier this year, Coleman (11.3-4.2) and Freeman (10.1) plus the 6-10 van Kempen (6.7-6.9) have all contributed nicely. Ohio is 7-5 ATS as an underdog and 13-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. Georgetown comes is 23-10 (No. 14 in the final AP poll), after losing 60-58 to West Va in the Big East title game. Monroe (16.1-9.5) will be a tough matchup inside for the Bobcats plus Georgetown's trio of guards are impressive. Freeman (16.7-3.6-2.4), Wright (14.8-3.0-4.1) and Clark (10.6-3.8) are Big East battle-tested but Bassett, Cooper and Co. are no slouches and that group will not back down. Georgetown was inconsistent down the regular season stretch and is prone to sloppy play; as they have the 221st worst turnover margin in Division I. The Bobcats went to seven NCAA tourneys from 1960-1974 but had made just four trips since ('83, '85, '94 and '05). Groce came to Athens with a promise of winning MAC championships and he delivered the school's 12th NCAA berth in just his second season with last Saturday's win over Akron. Will he now deliver the school's first NCAA win since 1983? Ohio is extremely confident coming into this game, has a terrific backcourt duo in Bassett and Cooper plus excellent depth. Winning outright may be asking too much but I'm taking the points.
BIG AL
Robert Morris @ Villanova
PICK: Villanova -18
The Colonials, based in Coraopolis, PA, earned this berth by upsetting Quinnipiac in the Finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament last week. But one of the things I love to do in the NCAA Tourney is fade such teams who pulled upsets to win their Conference tourney, and Robert Morris falls into a negative 49-88 ATS system of mine. Also, Villanova is flying a bit under the radar, as it comes into this game off back-to-back losses (68-66 to WVU, and 80-76 to Marquette), but that's probably a good thing, overall, for Jay Wright's Wildcats, who started the season 20-1 SU and 15-4 ATS, but have gone 3-8 ATS over their last 11. However, NCAA teams that come into the Tourney "cold" generally do fairly well in the opening round, and it must be noted that Villanova's offensive efficiency ranks as #8 in the country, and that's one of the most important stats for me in predicting Tourney success. Take Villanova.
Jim Feist
New Orleans vs. Denver
Play: Under 214
Denver is 3-2 under the total the last five games, and just held Washington to 87 points the last game. It sailed under by 28 points. After facing Golden State last night, the injury-riddled Hornets aren't going to want to run with the Nuggets in the thin, mountain air in Denver. Look for a slower paced game than oddsmakers expect, play the Nuggets/Hornets Under the total.
SPORTS WAGERS
Old Dominion +1.18 over Notre Dame
Speaking of teams that got royally shafted, the Old Dominion Monarchs may as well have received a giant middle finger from the Selection Committee. Old Dominion did everything it could possibly do to earn a higher seed; namely go 15-3 in conference play, win the conference tournament and not lose a home game the entire season and yet that still wasn’t enough to earn them anything more than an 11 seed. I’m here to tell you this team can play and it starts with the collection of sheer length Head Coach Blaine Taylor put together. The starting five is made up of players who are 6’5 and taller that predictably lead all of Division 1 in offensive rebound percentage. The Monarchs gobbled up an incredible 42.4% of missed shots and protected the rim with outstanding success, allowing opponents to shoot only 30% on three’s and 45.4% on two’s. These are extremely important statistics because the Fighting Irish do one thing well and that’s score. Notre Dame went on an incredible run to make this tournament, winning six of its last seven games over big time Big East opponents. The main problem I have with Notre Dame is that their team isn’t in the same stratosphere athletically with the Monarchs. This is a team that ranked 342nd out of 347 in turnovers created, far and away the worst mark of any team in this tournament. They rely almost exclusively on their starting five and against a huge physical team like Old Dominion it’s very possible fatigue becomes a serious factor. Furthermore, they finished 3rd from the bottom in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Simply put, this is a terrible matchup for this Notre Dame squad. They have taxed their starters on this tournament push and are facing a team that can defend, rebound, and play in the paint. That’s exactly the way you beat this team and the added motivation of David vs. Goliath is precisely the kind of angle I look for during tournament time. Old Dominion pulls off the upset. Play: Old Dominion +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.09 over Marquette
Ok, has the Pac 10 bashing gone to a new low or what? The Washington Huskies won the Pac 10 tournament, finished 24-9 and has won seven in a row but yet can’t get anything more than an 11 seed? Completely and utterly ridiculous but thankfully we’re going to make some money out of this injustice. Firstly, I want to say a little something about the Pac 10 being a “joke” this season because it simply wasn’t true. This is a conference that has sent out lottery pick after lottery pick over the past few seasons and still managed to field teams that came second in the NCAA in defensive efficiency (USC), third in offensive efficiency (California) and had seven teams finish at or above .500, a better ratio than the SEC and Big 10. Washington played at a blistering tempo and still finished second in the Pac-10 in offensive efficiency. (A success because the more possessions a team uses the more likely it is for them to either miss or turn the ball over) Marquette has gone 11-3 over its past 14 games but believe it or not only beat 2 tournament teams over that entire stretch. The Golden Eagles got blown out by Georgetown in the conference tournament and lost at home to Notre Dame. So please, save this “Watch out for Marquette!” talk that has dominated this game storyline. It’s a nice team without a single NBA prospect that allowed opponents to shoot 50% from two and boasted the worst rate of blocks among all the 65 teams in this field. Look for Washington to quell the Pac 10 storyline and pull off this upset. Play: Washington +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Wake Forest +1.93 over Texas
Both teams come into this event struggling but the difference is the Longhorns have been struggling for two months while the Deacs have been struggling for two weeks. All that means nothing now but it sure is telling. The Longhorns were ranked #1 in the nation after they opened the year 17-0 and kept beating up on a whole slew of marshmallows. They opened Big-12 play by beating Iowa St and Colorado and also beat Texas A&M but that’s where things started to turn. Over the Longhorns final 16 games they went 7-9 and got walloped on more than a few occasions. This team was and probably still is the most overrated in the land and frankly, Wake probably has a better chance of winning than the Longhorns do. Sure, they dropped five of its last six but that was then and this is now. They still played a tougher schedule than Texas, they’re very strong defensively and they have a guy by the name of Al-Farouq Aminu that averages a double-double. The Longhorns can be pressured into doing a lot of bad things and other strong defensive clubs exposed those flaws, thus, so will the Deacons. If you like seeing a lot of wild shots by a careless team, watch the Longhorns. Play: Wake Forest +1.93
Temple –3½ over Cornell
The best thing about this tournament this year is that it’s so wide open and any team that gets hot or comes in hot has a chance to go very deep. Enter the Temple Owls. When you look at pedigrees of teams that have won this event you’ll often find that team went on a 10-game or more winning streak during the year and performed outstanding on the road. The Owls closed the season 10-0 and they also won 13 of 14 games from early December until late January. Temple went 12-3 on the road 3-1 on a neutral court and 13-1 at home. They have one of the best profiles in the tourney and one must question why they’re just a #5 seed. Meanwhile the Big Red has dominated the Ivy League for years and that’s nice it, it really is but this isn’t Princeton, Harvard or Yale. Cornell’s four losses were to Seton Hall, Syracuse, Kansas and Pennsylvania and three of the four losses were by 10 points or more. Yes, they played the Jayhawks very tough, losing by just five in Kansas but the Jayhawks just came off a win over Temple and had Tennessee on deck, so that game was sandwiched between two ranked teams at the time. That’s not to say the Big Red is not a quality team because they are but the defense of the Owls is tremendous and it’s hard to imagine Cornell keeping pace with this quality team from the A-10. The Owls have won the A-10 for three consecutive years and this is its best team yet going into the dance. Play: Temple –3½ (No bets).