EZWINNERS
Marquette Golden Eagles -1.5
Teams with a lot of size and interior presence gave Marquette trouble this year, but I don't believe the Huskies have enough size inside to do so here. The Huskies thrive off of forced turnovers to fuel their offense and the Golden Eagles are very good at not turning the ball over. Marquette will force Washington to score out of a set offense which is not their strength and play this game at a slower pace. The Golden Eagles are one of the best three points shooting teams in the nation this season and I don't think Washington has the offensive firepower to keep up with Marquette. The PAC 10 has not had a lot of success against the Big East in the NCAA tournament recently and I don't expect that to change this year. Lay the points.
Spartan
San Diego St. +3.5 vs Tennessee
Here we have a great match up featuring a club in Tennessee who likely is coming in feeling a little slighted at the #6 seed they drew squaring off against a San Diego State team that is tickled to death to have their hard work rewarded with the automatic bid. I was very, very impressed with the way the Aztecs took care of business in the conference tourney knocking off both New Mexico and then the host UNLV Rebels. That was obviously a tall order and I respect them for taking care of business. The Volunteers have had their share of drama this year and as one might suspect in a year of turmoil they have had some incredible highs on the court accompanied by some real lemons. The 29 point meltdown against Kentucky in the SEC Tourney really bothers me to be candid, losing to the Wildcats is absolutely nothing to hang your heads over but to get run out of the building by 29 points says some things that are not pleasant to hear. Not the way you want to enter the big dance despite the spin jobs you will hear coming out of the Tennessee camp. Now honestly, one concern somewhat is the fact San Diego State is making seventh trip to the big dance and they have yet to prevail in one tourney ballgame. Well, I feel their time may have come and even if they do not provide us an outright here I feel this has all the makings of a classic march madness buzzer beater and the Aztecs catching 3.5 points in too good to pass up. I very much like the way this club defends and spreads it around on the offensive end with four players averaging in double figures. Hopefully the Aztecs will come out shooting the ball at least fairly well because as I've often seen in these big games if a team struggles early on putting the ball in the basket it can affect them on the defensive end as well. When all is said and done here I feel our value is clearly with the team coming into this thing playing the better ball, that same squad is catching the points. Let's go with San Diego State here +3.5 guys!
Lenny Del Genio
Temple -4 vs Cornell
This 5 vs. 12 matchup has become a popular upset choice of many, not only because of the history involved in the 5 vs. 12 matchup, but because of the fact that Cornell is the best team produced by the Ivy League in recent memory. The Big Red gave #1 Kansas all they could handle on January 6th, losing by only a five-point margin as 21-point underdogs, and afterwards Jayhawks head coach Bill Self called Cornell the best team they faced all season. It should be pointed out that one of Cornell's other three losses came to Syracuse. This is is the Big Red's third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. They did not receive favorable draws either of the past two years. In 2007, they had to deal with the Lopez twins of Stanford and last year they played Missouri, an up-tempo team that plays to their weaknesses. Now with a senior-laden team (nine seniors on roster), Cornell is ready to prove that the "third time is indeed the charm." Too bad they got a bad draw yet again. Temple not only won the regular season Atlantic 10 championship, but took home the Tournament title as well. This is the best team you don't know about. The Owls have won straight and covered six of their last seven. Don't discount the disadvantage Cornell is at because the Ivy League has no conference tournament and thus they've been off for two weeks. Temple HC Fran Dunphy knows counterpart Steve Donahue because he was his assistant at Penn. Temple was 18-10 ATS as a favorite during the regular season & A-10 Tournament and is a perfect 6-0 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in back to back games. Play on Temple.
James Patrick Sports
Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana Tech
Non-Conference opposition that travel to take on the Bulldogs rarely leave on a winning note as LaTech is (10-3) ATS in non-conference action and HC Kerry Rupp has his top three scorers back and his team does it with defense. Big Game James Patrick's Thursday selection is Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in the College Insiders Tournament.
Great Lakes Sports
St Mary's CA vs Richmond
Play: Richmond Spiders
The Richmond Spiders are a very solid 10-2-2 ATS in their last fourteen games overall, and the Richmond Spiders are a very nice 7-0-2 ATS when playing in their last nine games vs a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Richmond Spiders is also 4-0-1 ATS in the role of a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points, and they are 4-1-1 ATS their last six neutral site games. We look for the Richmond Spiders to grab the NCAA tournament ATS Win&Cover tonight.
Jimmy Moore
Montana vs. New Mexico
Pick: New Mexico -8.5
New Mexico has been strong all season long and will be bringing a good number of fans over to San Jose to root them on. Montana got into the Big Dance by winning their conference tournament with a huge 2nd half comeback. They were so happy to just get in they may not be ready to go in this game. Lay it with New Mexico to be a winner.
Matt Rivers
San Diego State vs Tennessee
I give Steve Fisher and his Aztecs all of the credit in the world for beating both New Mexico and UNLV in Vegas to win the Mountain West Tournament. San Diego State is a very good ballclub that has won five in a row and 9 of their last 10. But things are going to be a little more difficult in this spot across the country in Rhode Island and against a team that is a little bit perturbed about that last embarrassing effort against Kentucky.
I am not the biggest Tennessee fan because the Volunteers are not a great team but with that said they are still a quality top 20 or so squad that is way too cheap only laying around three points in this spot. When laying a ton I will fade the Vols with the best of them but in this spot I'm all abou tthe orange.
It's never easy to travel across the country like this for anybody no less a good but not great SDSU team that scored 68 points in literally five straight games last month. Now that is the stat of the century. If a team tried to score the exact same number of points like that they couldn't do it.
Anyway, my point is that the Aztecs are more of a grind it out type of a team that plays lower scoring games. Tennessee is sort of the antithesis of that as they like to run and bomb away from three all the while using Wayne Chism and Brian Williams down low to grab the boards and bang in the paint.
We can see the Vols, who are the superior team from still the superior conference play more at their pace here a lot closer to home with more than likely the majority of their fans in the building.
I think people have gotten a little too carried away with this San Diego State team and have forgotten a little about the potential upside of Tennessee making this thing a bit too cheap. Fisher's squad is good but a little overvalued and should lose this game in the end by about eight
Free pick: Tennessee
SPORTS ADVISORS
MIDWEST REGION
(at Providence, R.I.)
(14) Ohio (21-14, 18-12 ATS) vs. (3) Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS)
Ohio has ripped off five consecutive SU and ATS wins and is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight starts. The Bobcats finished off their three-game run through the Mid-American Conference tournament with an 81-75 victory over Akron as a 1½-point underdog Saturday. Those three games were Ohio’s only neutral-site contests all season.
Georgetown has cashed in a season-best five straight games (4-1 SU), winning three in row en route to the Big East Conference final before coming up just short to West Virginia, losing 60-58 as a 2½-point ‘dog Saturday. The Hoyas have been superb on neutral floors this season, going 5-1 SU while covering in all six outings, averaging 74.0 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting, while giving up 63.5 ppg on 39.3 percent shooting.
Ohio is making its 12th Tournament appearance, the last coming in 2005. The Bobcats last won a tourney game in 1983. The Hoyas failed to make the Big Dance last year, ending a three-year tourney streak. They haven’t lost a first-round game since 1997, making it to at least the second round four straight times.
The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against Big East opponents, but they own positive ATS streaks of 11-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 8-0 against winning teams, 6-0 as a pup and 4-1 at neutral sites. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a tourney chalk, though they are on ATS surges of 4-0 after a spread-cover, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site chalk and 9-2-1 outside the Big East.
The under has hit in five straight non-conference games for Ohio, but the Bobcats are on “over” rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 6-2 after a SU win, 8-2 on Thursday and 6-2-1 as an underdog. Georgetown is on “under” stretches of 10-3 in the Tournament, 4-1 as a Tournament chalk, 10-4 with the Hoyas laying 13 or more points and 49-23 coming off a spread-cover, but the over is 8-2 with John Thompson III’s troops coming off a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGETOWN
(11) San Diego State (25-8, 17-13 ATS) vs. (6) Tennessee (25-8, 13-16-1 ATS)
San Diego State made a big run to reach the Big Dance, winning six of its last seven regular-season games (4-3 ATS), then sweeping through three games (2-1 ATS) to win the Mountain West Conference tournament title. In Saturday’s final, the Aztecs dropped host UNLV 55-45 as a four-point underdog. Over the past five games (all SU wins), Steve Fisher’s squad has averaged 65.6 ppg on stout 49.8 percent shooting, while allowing just 56.4 on 41.3 percent shooting.
Tennessee won five in a row, including its first two games in the SEC tourney to reach the semifinals in Nashville, before getting hammered by No. 2 Kentucky 74-45 Saturday as a 4½-point pup. On the road, the Volunteers have been outscored by an average of about four ppg this season (67.6-63.9), though on neutral courts, they’ve averaged 69.9 ppg and allowed 62.0.
San Diego State has never won a game in five previous Tournament appearances, most recently losing 87-83 to Indiana in a first-round contest in 2006. This is the fifth straight year the Volunteers have gone dancing, but last year they bowed out in the first round, losing by two points to Oklahoma State as a three-point favorite.
The Aztecs are on a handful of positive pointspread streaks, including 9-4 overall, 6-2 after a non-cover, 7-3 after a SU win, 4-1 as a ‘dog, 5-1 when catching less than seven points and 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. That said, they are also just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 neutral-court outings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.
The Vols are on ATS dives of 5-11 overall, 1-6 after a SU loss, 3-7 giving points, 3-7-1 in the Big Dance and 2-7-1 as a tourney chalk, though they’ve gone 4-0 ATS in their last four after a pointspread loss.
San Diego State is on “over” runs of 8-3 as an underdog and 11-4 as a neutral-site pup, but the under has hit in 22 of its last 28 non-conference contests and 13 of its last 19 neutral-site starts. Likewise, Tennessee is on “under” tears of 20-7-1 overall, 7-2 in non-conference play, 8-0 on Thursday, 6-1-1 as a chalk, 5-0-1 at neutral sites, 4-0-1 as a neutral-site favorite, 4-0 after a SU loss and 9-1-1 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MIDWEST REGION
(at Oklahoma City)
(16) Lehigh (22-10, 3-0 ATS) vs. (1) Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1 ATS)
Lehigh, the regular-season and tournament champ from the Patriot League, has won five in a row and seven of eight. The last three wins came in the conference tourney (3-0 ATS), and all by at least 15 points, including a 74-59 rout of Lafayette in Friday’s title game. However, those three contests also marked the only lined games all season for the Mountain Hawks, who averaged 75.1 ppg and allowed 70.0 ppg on the year.
Kansas claimed the regular-season and tournament titles in the Big 12, and has lost just once in its last 19 games (8-10-1 ATS). In Saturday’s conference final against Kansas State, the Jayhawks won 72-64 as a six-point favorite to cash for the fourth time in the last five games, their best ATS stretch of the season. Bill Self fields the nation’s fifth-best scoring team, at 81.8 ppg on 48.8 percent shooting (10th), including a sturdy 40.9 percent from three-point range (fifth). Kansas is allowing 63.8 ppg with a defense that rates third nationally in shooting percentage (37.7 percent).
Lehigh is back in the Tournament for the fourth time overall and the first time since 2004. This is the Jayhawks’ 21st consecutive Tournament appearance, the longest active streak in the nation. They won their third championship in 2008, but last year bowed out in the Sweet 16.
The Mountain Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral-site contests. The Jayhawks are on ATS skids of 0-7 laying more than 13 points, 4-17 on Thursday, 3-7 after a spread-cover and 4-9 following a SU win. But along with their current 4-1 ATS run (all as a chalk), they are on pointspread rolls 5-2 as a neutral-site chalk, 4-1 in the Tournament, 5-1 as a tourney favorite and 35-15-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The over is 4-1-1 in Lehigh’s last six non-conference contests and 3-1-1 in its last five neutral-site games, but the under is on a 5-1 run for the Mountain Hawks following a SU win. Kansas is on a boatload of “under” surges, including 4-1 overall, 6-0 on Thursday, 10-1 in the tourney, 7-1 as a tourney chalk, 5-1 in non-conference play and 12-4 on neutral floors.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER
(9) Northern Iowa (28-4, 20-11 ATS) vs. (8) UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS)
Northern Iowa rode its stifling defense to the regular-season and tournament titles in the Missouri Valley Conference. In their three-game tear through the conference tourney, the Panthers gave up a total of 132 points, holding Drake and Bradley to a suffocating 40 points apiece in the first two games, then dumping Wichita State 67-52 as a three-point chalk in the March 7 final. Northern Iowa averages a modest 63.3 ppg, but gives up just 54.3, the second-stingiest total in the nation.
UNLV won four straight to cap the regular season in the Mountain West, then notched wins over Utah and No. 14 BYU in the conference tourney. However, the Rebels ran out of gas in a 55-45 loss to San Diego State as a four-point home chalk in Saturday’s final. UNLV was solid in road/neutral-site contests this season, going 10-4 SU and ATS while putting up an average of 71.2 ppg and allowing 62.7 ppg.
This is Northern Iowa’s sixth Tournament appearance and second in a row. Last year in the first round, the Panthers gave fifth-seeded Purdue a tough battle before eventually falling 61-56 but cashing as an 8½-point underdog. Their only Tournament victory came in 1990. UNLV missed out on March Mayhem last year after advancing to the Sweet 16 in 2007 and getting to the second round in 2008. The Runnin’ Rebels have made it to the Big Dance 17 times in school history, reaching the Final Four four times.
The Panthers sport nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 36-17 overall, 5-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 53-24 as a pup regardless of venue and 14-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Rebels have failed to cash in their last four Thursday starts (including last week’s MWC tourney opener), but are otherwise on ATS upticks of 11-5 outside the MWC, 8-3 against winning teams, 5-2 after a SU loss, 7-3 after a pointspread setback and 9-3 after a double-digit home loss.
With their stout defense, it’s no surprise that the Panthers are on “under” tears of 21-6 overall, 18-4 on neutral courts, 37-15-1 getting points, 11-0 as a neutral-site pup and 21-5 following a SU win. Similarly, UNLV is on “under” stretches of 7-3 overall, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the over is 7-1-2 in the Rebels’ last 10 Thursday starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHERN IOWA
WEST REGION
(at Oklahoma City)
(10) Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) vs. (7) BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS)
Florida lost four of its last five games (2-3 ATS), yet still found a way to sneak into the field of 65 as one of the last “bubble” teams. The Gators opened last week’s SEC tourney in Nashville with a 78-69 victory over Auburn as a 5½-point favorite, then fell to Mississippi State 75-69 getting 1½ points Friday. The Gators played six neutral-site games this year, going 3-3 SU and ATS while playing opponents nearly dead even, averaging 70.5 ppg and allowing 69.5.
BYU went 7-2 in its last nine games (6-3 ATS), with the losses coming to a pair of Big Dance invitees in UNLV and New Mexico. In last week’s Mountain West Conference tournament, the Cougars topped TCU 95-85 but fell short as a whopping 16½-point chalk, then lost to tourney host UNLV 70-66 in Friday’s semis as a one-point pup. BYU ranks in the top 15 nationally in scoring (83.0 ppg, second), field-goal percentage (48.3) and three-point percentage (42.0, second), and is the No. 1 team at the free-throw line (78.6 percent).
Florida won consecutive national championships in 2006 and 2007 – the only two titles in school history – but then failed to get into the Big Dance the last two years. The Gators haven’t lost a first-round contest since 2004. Meanwhile, BYU is looking to snap a string of seven straight first-round losses, its last Tournament victory coming in 1993. The Cougars, who have reached this event 25 times, fell to Texas A&M in the opening round each of the last two years (67-62 in 2008; 79-66 last year), failing to cover in both games.
The Gators have covered in just one of their last five non-conference outings, but they are on ATS upturns of 10-2 in the Big Dance, 5-2 getting points, 4-1 as a tourney pup and 13-4 on Thursday. The Cougars are on ATS runs of 7-2 as a chalk, 4-0 laying less than seven points, 4-1 outside the MWC, 7-2 after a non-cover and 13-5-1 after a SU loss. However, they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-5 on Thursday, 1-5 in the tourney, 2-6 at neutral sites and 2-6 as a neutral-site favorite.
The under for Florida is on surges of 4-1 after a non-cover, 18-6 outside the SEC and 37-16 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but the over has been the play in six of the Gators’ last seven tourney starts. In addition, BYU is on “over” rolls of 7-3 overall, 15-7 on neutral courts, 4-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 in the Big Dance, 17-4 on Thursday, 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 22-10-2 following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) North Texas (24-8, 17-6-2 ATS) vs. (2) Kansas State (26-7, 18-9-1 ATS)
North Texas hasn’t lost since Jan. 30, going 11-0 SU (7-2-1 ATS in lined games), including a three-game run through the Sun Belt tournament in its only neutral-site contests this season. The Mean Green edged Troy 66-63 on March 9 as a one-point chalk to clinch their Big Dance berth. North Texas finished the year ranked second nationally with its 17-6-2 ATS record.
Kansas State went on a seven-game tear late in the regular season to soar up the national rankings before going 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games. However, two of those losses were against Kansas – the tourney’s No. 1 overall seed – including a 72-64 setback as a six-point pup in the Big 12 title game Saturday. The Wildcats, with their highest seed in school history, average 79.6 ppg (14th) and give up 69.4 ppg.
North Texas has qualified for the Big Dance just twice previously, losing to North Carolina by 18 points in 1988 and falling to Memphis by 15 points in 2007. Kansas State ended a 12-year Tournament drought in 2008, when it knocked off USC in the opening round – snapping a four-game Big Dance losing streak that stretched to 1989 – but the Wildcats bowed out to Wisconsin in the second round. K-State failed to qualify for last year’s event.
The Mean Green are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 18-7-2 overall, 33-16-2 getting points, 18-5 at neutral sites, 10-4 as a neutral-site pup, 5-0-2 getting more than 13 points, 10-3-1 in non-conference play and 4-0-1 against the Big 12. Similarly, the Wildcats are on pointspread tears of 17-7-1 overall, 6-0 outside the Big 12, 14-4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 as a neutral-site chalk.
North Texas is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 8-2 after a SU win and 7-2 as a ‘dog. On the flip side, K-State is on “over” rolls of 5-1 on neutral floors, 5-0 as a neutral-site chalk, 9-1 after a SU loss, 6-1-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE
WEST REGION
(at San Jose, Calif.)
(12) UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) vs. (5) Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS)
Texas-El Paso won the Conference USA regular-season crown and rolled through the first two games of the league tourney before blowing a seven-point late second-half lead and tumbling to Houston 81-73 as a seven-point chalk in Saturday’s final. Still, the Miners got an at-large bid, likely due to their 16-game winning streak (10-6 ATS) prior to losing to the Cougars. UTEP averages 75.8 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting, while allowing 64.2 ppg with a defense giving up just 39.0 percent shooting (14th).
Butler has the longest active winning streak in the nation at 20 in a row, though it has gone just 9-11 ATS in that span. In the Horizon League final, played on their home floor, the Bulldogs pounded Wright State 70-45 as a seven-point favorite March 9 to cap an undefeated conference season. Butler went 1-3 SU and ATS in its four neutral-site starts this year, getting outscored by just under four ppg (72.8-69.0). However, in the last five games overall, the Bulldogs are averaging 71.0 ppg and allowing 56.2, with the defense yielding just 35.5 percent shooting.
UTEP has reached the Tournament 16 previous times, but only twice since 1992. The Miners went one-and-done both times, falling to Maryland in 2004 and Utah in 2005. Butler is making its fourth straight Tournament appearance and ninth overall. After winning at least one game in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2008 (going 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS overall), the Bulldogs got bounced in the opening round last year, in a 75-71 loss to LSU as a 1½-point underdog.
The Miners are on ATS upticks of 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 as a pup, but they’ve also gone 0-5 ATS in their last five after a SU loss and 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference affairs. Butler, meanwhile, is on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 1-7 on neutral floors, 0-4 after a spread-cover, 0-4 on Thursday and 1-5 after a SU win of more than 20 points.
The under is 8-2 in UTEP’s last 10 coming off a SU loss, but the Miners are on “over” surges of 36-15 as a pup, 35-15-1 outside C-USA, 7-1-1 on neutral courts and 5-0 as a neutral-site pup. Butler is a mixed bag with totals, as well, with “under” streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a chalk) and 5-0 on Thursday offset by “over” stretches of 10-2 at neutral sites and 6-1 as a neutral-floor favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(13) Murray State (30-4, 14-13-2 ATS) vs. (4) Vanderbilt (24-8, 16-14 ATS)
Murray State reached the 30-victory plateau by winning 21 of its last 22 games (11-8-1 ATS in lined contests), going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four starts. In the Ohio Valley Conference tourney, the Racers held all three of their opponents to 51 points apiece, including a 62-51 victory over Morehead State as a four-point chalk in the March 6 title game. Murray State averages 77.5 ppg on superb 50.3 percent shooting (third), and holds foes to 60.5 ppg (21st) on 38.6 percent shooting (12th).
Vanderbilt finished second to Kentucky in the SEC East, then went 1-1 SU and ATS in the conference tourney in their home city of Nashville, dropping Georgia 78-66 as an eight-point chalk and losing to Mississippi State 62-52 as a 1½-point favorite in the semifinals. The Commodores have played six neutral-site contests this season, going 3-3 SU and ATS.
Murray State is back in the Big Dance for the 14th time. The Racers are just 1-13 SU all-time – the lone victory coming against North Carolina State in 1988. In their most recent appearance in 2006, they gave North Carolina a huge scare, eventually falling 69-65 but easily cashing as a 10-point favorite. Vanderbilt, making its 11th Tournament appearance, advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2007 (losing by a single point to Georgetown), dropped an opening-round game to Siena the following year and failed to qualify last season.
The Racers own nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 0-5 against the SEC, 0-5-1 in non-conference play, 1-4 on neutral courts, 2-6 as a neutral-site pup, 3-12 against winning teams, 7-18-1 after a spread-cover and 2-5 after a SU win. The Commodores have gone 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Thursday outings and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a chalk, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven tourney contests.
The over has been the play in Murray State’s last four starts as a dog, but the Racers are otherwise on “under” tears of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-0 at neutral sites and 10-4-1 in Thursday starts. The under has also hit in four of Vandy’s last five tourney tilts, but the Commodores are on “over” runs of 12-4 overall, 6-0 on Thursday, 11-1 after a SU loss, 15-3 after a non-cover and 6-1 from the favorite’s role.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT
EAST REGION
(at New Orleans)
(9) Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) vs. (8) Texas (24-9, 10-19 ATS)
Wake Forest fell apart down the stretch, losing five of its last six games (3-3 ATS), but still snuck into the field of 65. Last Thursday, the Demon Deacons opened the ACC tourney in embarrassing fashion, getting blown out by Miami 83-62 as a 3½-point favorite. That was the lone neutral-site game this season for Wake, which has averaged 69 ppg away from home this year and given up a tick more at 70.5 ppg.
Texas has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse this year, starting out 17-0 to reach No. 1 in the country, then going 7-9 SU and an even worse 3-13 ATS the rest of the way to plummet to a No. 8 seed. The Longhorns got pounded by Baylor 86-67 getting one point in the second round of the Big 12 tourney last Thursday. Negatives aside, Rick Barnes’ troops are still one of the top scoring units, averaging 81.2 ppg (seventh) while allowing 69.7, and they are second nationally in rebounding (39.5 per game).
Wake Forest ended a four-year Tournament drought last year, but the journey was brief as it got destroyed by 13th-seeded Cleveland State 84-69 as a 7½-point favorite. This is the Demon Deacons’ 22nd trip to this event in school history. It’s the Longhorns’ 12th consecutive Tournament appearance and 16th in the last 17 years. During this stretch, Texas 12-3 SU in opening round games, including a 76-62 rout of Minnesota as a 4 ½-point favorite last March before losing to Duke.
These two teams met in the 1996 Big Dance, with Wake squeaking out a 65-62 second-round victory as an eight-point ‘dog.
Despite their current slide, the Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and are on additional ATS surges of 6-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 10-1 getting less than seven points and 4-1 as a pup of any price. However, they also carry three lengthy and pertinent ATS skids: 1-10 in the tourney, 6-24 on neutral courts and 4-17 on Thursday.
The Longhorns have also been an up-and-down-bet, with positive ATS runs of 9-4 outside the Big 12, 6-2 against the ACC, 5-2 at neutral sites and 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk, combined with pointspread plunges of 7-19 overall (3-17 last 20), 3-14 against winning teams, 3-11 giving points, 5-15-1 after an ATS loss and 2-7 laying less than seven in the Big Dance.
Wake Forest is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 as a pup and 8-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the Deacons also sport “over” rolls of 7-3 in non-conference play, 5-1 in the tourney and 4-0 against the Big 12. Texas is on a plethora of “over” tears, including 4-0 overall, 5-0 in the tourney, 10-4 laying points, 4-1 as a tourney chalk, 7-0 on neutral floors, 5-0 as a neutral-site chalk and 7-1 against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(16) East Tennessee St. (20-14, 2-1 ATS) vs. (1) Kentucky (32-2, 17-15 ATS)
East Tennessee State took fifth in the Atlantic Sun Conference, despite winning its last three regular-season games. But the Buccaneers then pirated the conference tourney with three consecutive victories in their only lined games of the year, beating Mercer on its home court 72-66 in the final as a two-point favorite.
Kentucky won its first 19 games of the season (9-8 ATS), stubbed its toe at South Carolina, then won 13 of its last 14 games, with the lone setback in that stretch coming at Tennessee. The Wildcats got through the three-game SEC tourney, edging Alabama in the opener, pounding the Vols by 29 in a payback game, then squeaking past Mississippi State 75-74 in overtime as a seven-point chalk. Kentucky outscores foes by an average of 14 ppg (79.2-65.3) and has the nation’s sixth-best field-goal defense (38.1 percent).
East Tennessee is making its ninth Tournament appearance and second in a row, but it hasn’t won a game since 1992. Last year, hoever, the Buccaneers gave No. 1 seed Pitt a tough time before succumbing 72-62, easily covering the 21-point number.
Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is as impressive as any in the country, as it has reached this event 51 times, advancing to 13 Final Fours and winning seven national championships. The Wildcats are 100-45 SU in the Tournament, but their string of 18 consecutive appearances ended last year. In their most recent contest in this event in 2008, they suffered a 74-66 first-round loss to Marquette – the first time since 1987 that the ‘Cats went one-and-done.
The Bucs have played just 13 lined contests over the past five seasons, though they have done well in Vegas, riding ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after a SU win, 8-2 getting points, 4-1 at neutral-sites, 8-2 as a neutral-floor pup and 11-4 in non-conference play. The Wildcats are on ATS skids of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a SU win, but they are on positive ATS runs of 39-19 following a non-cover, 4-1 on Thursday and 5-2 outside the SEC.
The over is on runs for East Tennessee State of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on neutral courts and 6-2 after a SU win, and Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in non-conference action, 7-2 laying 13 or more points, 5-0 as a tourney chalk of that same price and 8-2 after a non-cover. That said, the ‘Cats are on “under” rolls of 4-1 as a tourney chalk of any price, 7-2 at neutral sites and 5-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
EAST REGION
(at San Jose, Calif.)
(11) Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) vs. (6) Marquette (22-11, 16-10-1 ATS)
Washington ended up getting one of the last slots in the Big Dance by winning its last seven games (6-1 ATS), including a three-game run through the Pac-10 tournament to grab the automatic bid. In Saturday’s final against conference regular-season champ California, Washington won 79-75 as a two-point favorite. Over the last five games, the Huskies have averaged 77.0 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowed 66.6 ppg on 39.4 percent shooting.
Marquette was one of the hotter teams in the country late in the season, winning nine of its last 11 regular-season games in the rugged Big East, including three overtime victories. The Golden Eagles then nabbed two wins in the conference tourney before getting trounced by Georgetown 80-57 as a 3½-point pup in Friday’s semifinals. Marquette has gone 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) on neutral courts this year, outscoring opponents by an average of just a point per game (66.7-65.7).
Washington has made it to the Tournament 14 previous times, including last year as a No. 5 seed, when it beat 12th-seeded Mississippi State 71-58 (as a 6½-point favorite), then fell to No. 4 seed Purdue 76-74 (as a one-point chalk) in the second round. The Huskies have won three straight first-round contests, cashing in the last two.
Marquette is making its fifth straight trip to the Big Dance and the 28th in all. The Golden Eagles have scored first-round victories each of the last two years – including a 58-57 win over Utah State in 2009 (falling short as a six-point chalk – but got eliminated in the second round both times.
Along with their current 6-1 ATS run, the Huskies are on spread-covering upturns of 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in the Tournament, but they also shoulder ATS slides of 3-9 outside the Pac-10, 1-5 getting points, 1-5 on Thursday and 2-6 as a neutral-site ‘dog.
The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven tourney starts and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference contests, but they remain on positive ATS rolls of 6-1 on Thursday, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 11-4-1 against winning teams and 9-3 versus teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under is 17-8 in Washington’s last 25 non-conference games, but the Huskies are on “over” surges of 5-1 as a neutral-site pup, 15-4 on Thursday, 17-7 after a spread-cover and 24-11 coming off a SU win. The under is 6-0 in Marquette’s last six as a chalk and 4-0 in its last four as a neutral-site favorite, but the Golden Eagles are also on “over” sprees of 10-2 in the Big Dance, 5-1 as a tourney chalk and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE and OVER
(14) Montana (22-9, 17-11 ATS) vs. (3) New Mexico (29-4, 18-12-2 ATS)
Montana enters the Big Dance on a 9-2 SU run (8-2 ATS in lined games), sweeping through three games in the Big Sky tourney (2-0 ATS), including a 66-65 come-from-behind upset of top-seeded host Weber State as a 3½-point pup in the March 10 final. In that contest, the Grizzlies rallied from a 20-point halftime deficit. Montana, averaging 70.0 ppg and allowing 61.2, is among the nation’s top shooting teams, hitting 48.6 percent from the floor (12th), including a solid 40.4 percent from three-point range (eighth).
New Mexico went through the final two months of the regular season without losing, going 14-0 SU (8-5-1 ATS) to win the Mountain West regular-season crown. The Lobos then routed Air Force in the conference tournament quarterfinals, but were upset by San Diego State 72-69 Friday as a 2½-point chalk in the semis. Steve Alford’s squad was consistent regardless of venue this year, outscoring foes 76.6-67.1 overall, 75.6-69.8 on the highway and 77.8-70.2 at neutral sites.
Montana is back in the Big Dance for the eighth time, the most recent being in 2006, when it upset Nevada in the opening round (87-79 as a five-point underdog). The Grizzlies’ only other Tournament victory came in 1975. This is New Mexico’s 12th Tournament appearance and first since 2005, when it lost in the first round to Villanova. The Lobos’ last Big Dance victory came in 1999.
The Grizzlies are on ATS rolls of 8-2 overall, 6-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1 outside the Big Sky, 5-1 catching points, 4-1 against the Mountain West and 6-2 after a SU win. The lone negative: a 3-8 ATS mark as a pup of seven to 12½ points.
The Lobos are in ATS funks of 1-5 overall (0-5 as a favorite), 2-8 at neutral courts and 1-7 as a neutral-floor favorite, but they’ve cashed in their last four against Big Sky foes and are on additional positive ATS stretches of 7-1 after a non-cover and 35-17-2 in non-conference play.
Montana is on “under” runs of 6-0 as a pup, 7-1 in non-conference action and 7-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but the over is 7-2 in the Grizzlies’ last nine overall, 6-1 in their last seven after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight following a SU win. New Mexico is on “over” sprees of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-1 against the Big Sky and 5-2 on Thursday, though the under is 9-3 in the Lobos’ last dozen games following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO
SOUTH REGION
(at Providence, R.I.)
(10) St. Mary’s (26-5, 19-10 ATS) vs. (7) Richmond (26-8, 18-10-2 ATS)
St. Mary’s upset Gonzaga 81-62 as a 4½-point underdog in the West Coast Conference championship game in Las Vegas back on March 8 to capture the conference’s automatic bid. The victory over Gonzaga gives the Gaels a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) coming into this contest, and going back to Christmas Day they’re 16-3 SU (with two of the three defeats coming to Gonzaga).
The Spiders made it all the way to the Atlantic 10 tournament championship game Sunday, but came up short against Temple, losing 56-52 and pushing as a four-point underdog. Richmond is 12-2 SU and 10-2-2 ATS in its last 14 games, with both SU defeats coming by four points each. In fact, Richmond’s last seven games have been nail-biters, with victory margins of 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 4 and 4 points (and three of the games went to overtime).
This is the second time in three years and the sixth time in all that St. Mary’s has gone dancing, but the Gaels haven’t won a first-round contest since 1959 – their very first tourney appearance. In 2008, they got spanked by Miami, Fla., falling 78-64 as a 1½-point favorite.
In gaining an at-large berth, Richmond returns to the Field of 65 for the first time since 2004 (and the eighth time in school history). The Spiders last won a tourney game in 1998 (62-61 over South Carolina as a 7½-point underdog).
Both teams have excelled in neutral-site games this year, with St. Mary’s going 4-1 SU and ATS and Richmond posting a 5-1 mark (4-1-1 ATS).
The Gaels are on pointspread hot streaks of 19-6-1 in non-conference games, 15-7 after a victory and 12-4 after a spread-cover, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 1-8 ATS in their last nine as a neutral-site underdog. Richmond has failed to cover in four of its last five as a favorite and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last four on five on Thursday, but otherwise the Spiders are on spread-covering runs of 10-2-2 overall, 7-3 in non-league action, 6-2-1 as a favorite, 4-0-1 as a chalk of less than seven points and 23-7-2 after a SU loss.
St. Mary’s has stayed under the total in eight of 10 overall, seven of eight after a SU win, four straight on Thursday, five of seven at neutral sites and four straight as an underdog at neutral venues. On the flip side, the over is 9-3-1 in the Gaels’ last 13 as a ‘dog of less than seven points and 20-7 in their last 27 non-conference tilts. Also, Richmond is on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 8-3 when laying less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RICHMOND
(15) Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) vs. (2) Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS)
Robert Morris swept three games in the Northeast Conference tournament last weekend, finishing it with a 52-50 upset victory over Quinnipiac as a 4 ½-point underdog eight days ago. The Colonials have won 19 of their last 23 games, though one of the defeats came against Pittsburgh (77-53 on the road), which like Villanova plays in the Big East.
The Wildcats jumped out to a 22-2 start to the season and looked like a lock for a No. 1 seed. However, they fell apart down the stretch, losing five of their final seven games, including an 80-76 upset loss to Minnesota as a five-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament a week ago. After averaging 85.3 ppg during its 22-2 start, Villanova dropped to 72.9 ppg during its season-ending 2-5 slump.
Robert Morris snapped a 17-year Tournament drought last year, but it didn’t hang around long, losing to Michigan State 77-62 and just missing as a 14½-point underdog. The Colonials are 1-6 all-time in six tourney appearances.
Villanova is going dancing for the fifth straight season and the 31st overall. Last year, the Wildcats advanced to the Final Four for the first time since winning their only national championship in 1985, but they were no match for eventual champion North Carolina, losing 83-69 in the semifinals.
The Colonials, who rarely play lined contests, are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games that have featured a betting line. Meanwhile, not only did Villanova struggle on the scoreboard down the stretch, but it failed to cash in eight of its final 11 games after starting out 15-4 ATS. The Wildcats are also in ATS slumps of 2-10 on Thursday, 2-6 as a favorite and 2-6 as a favorite in the Tournament. However, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five at neutral sites (all as a chalk) and 5-1 ATS in their last six when laying 13 points or more regardless of venue.
Villanova is on “over” runs of 17-8 overall, 6-0 in non-conference play, 14-6 as a favorite, 6-2 when laying 13 points or more and 6-2 on Thursday. Also, the Colonials topped the posted price in two of their three conference tournament games, their only contests this year that featured a total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and OVER
SOUTH REGION
(at New Orleans)
(14) Sam Houston State (25-7, 3-2 ATS) vs. (3) Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS)
Sam Houston State swept three games in last week’s Southland Conference tournament to claim just its second Tournament bid in school history. After barely getting past Nicholls State (62-57) and Southeastern Louisiana (88-85) in the first two rounds, the Bearkats had no problems in the championship game, pounding Stephen F. Austin 64-48 as a 3½-point chalk. Going back to Jan. 9, Sam Houston State is 17-2 SU, and it is a perfect 5-0 in neutral-site games (3-2 ATS).
The Bears’ five-game SU and four-game ATS winning streaks ended in the Big 12 tournament semifinals with an 82-75 loss to Kansas State as a two-point underdog. Still, they’ve won eight of their last 12 overall. Also, Baylor is 4-2 SU and ATS in neutral-site games this year, averaging 74.7 ppg on 48 percent shooting while holding opponents to 66.8 ppg (38.7 percent).
Sam Houston State’s only previous Big Dance appearance came in 2003, and it wasn’t a memorable one as the Bearkats get thumped by Florida, 85-55 as a 20½-point favorite. Meanwhile, Baylor is making just its third trip to the Tournament since 1950, which is also the last time the Bears won a game. In 1988, they suffered a 15-point opening-round loss to Memphis, then waited 20 years before they got another shot in 2008, when they stumbled to Purdue 90-79.
The Bearkats have cashed in five of their last seven lined neutral-site games and they’re 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight out of conference. Baylor is on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-0 in non-league action, 19-7 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a favorite and 8-3 as a neutral-site chalk.
The over is on runs of 6-2 for Sam Houston as an underdog, 5-2 for Sam Houston in non-conference action, 4-0 for the Bears overall and 4-0 for the Bears as a favorite of 7 to 12½ points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(11) Old Dominion (26-8, 13-17 ATS) vs. (6) Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS)
Old Dominion brings a five-game winning streak into this contest, with three of those coming in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. The Monarchs took both the regular-season and conference tournament titles, the latter following a 60-53 victory over William & Mary 10 days ago (failing to cash as a nine-point favorite). ODU has won 20 of its last 24 games, but prior to winning the CAA Tournament in Richmond, Va., the Monarchs had lost their first two neutral-site games (SU and ATS) to Missouri and Mississippi State
Notre Dame caught fire down the stretch to gain an at-large berth out of the Big East. The Irish went on a 3-7 slump from mid-January to mid-February, then turned it on and won six in a row (SU and ATS) before coming up just short to West Virginia in the Big East semifinals, losing 53-51, but again cashing as a five-point underdog for its eighth straight spread-cover. Including the Big East tourney, coach Mike Bray’s squad is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at neutral venues.
Old Dominion returns to this event for the first time since 2007, when it lost to fifth-seeded Butler 57-46 as a two-point underdog in the opening round. The Monarchs are 2-9 all-time in the tourney, their last victory coming in 1995.
This marks the 30th time in school history that Notre Dame has reached the Tournament, most recently making it in 2008 when it pounded George Mason (68-50 as a 6½-point favorite) in the first round before getting ousted by Washington State. The Irish are 4-1 SU in their last five opening-round games.
The Monarchs, who failed to get the cash in the CAA title game against William & Mary, are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus the Big East. From there, though, they’re in ATS ruts of 7-18 at neutral sites, 2-7 in non-conference action, 1-4 on Thursday, 3-9 against winning teams 1-6 as an underdog, 0-8 as a neutral-site pup and 0-6 when catching less than seven points at neutral venues.
In addition to their 8-0 ATS run to end the regular season, the Irish are on ATS surges of 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 on Thursday, 15-5-1 against winning teams and 3-1-1 as a favorite of less than seven points.
Old Dominion has topped the total in seven of eight overall and six of seven after a victory, while the over is 4-0 in Notre Dame’s last four non-Big East tussles and 7-3 in its last 10 on Thursday.
However, the Monarchs are also on “under” runs of 8-2 in non-conference play, 5-2 at neutral sites, 8-3 as an underdog, 4-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 7-3 when catching less than seven points anywhere and 5-2 on Thursday. Also, the Irish are on “under” runs of 7-0 overall, 5-0-1 in the Tournament (5-0 as a Tournament favorite of less than seven points), 14-3 at neutral sites, 10-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 21-5 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME and UNDER
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on UTEP Miners +2.5
I believe UTEP is the better team from the better conference, and losing the C-USA tourney title game to Houston is going to have the Miners really fired up this for this one. I like the fact that the Miners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Just shooting the ball well against UTEP isn't enough. In fact, UTEP is 7-1 ATS versus good shooting teams, making 45% or more of their shots, after 15+ games this season, winning these games by an average score of 76.6 to 65.8. Plus, UTEP is 13-3 ATS when playing away from home versus poor pressure defensive teams, forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game, over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 75.7 to 68.9. If Butler isn't able to force UTEP into a lot of mistakes, which is not the defensive personality of the Bulldogs, the Miners will have an excellent opportunity to win this game, which I think they will. Take the points.
Craig Trapp
San Diego State vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -3.5
Two teams coming off very different conference tourney experiences. TENN needs to put a blowout to UK behind them whereas SDS is looking to keep their Championship form for one more week at least. The difference in this one is the taller more athletic TENN guards. Prince, Mays and Hopson can really play and even though they did not play well verse UK they will bounce back. Hopson for us will be the difference as he will go both inside and outside scoring at least 20. Chism also will play very well as he has had a ton of Tourney experience which is so valuable. Close early but late TENN is just too much.
Rob Vinciletti
Montana vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico -9
The Lobos fit a nice system here that plays on certain teams off a favored loss in conference play vs an opponent off a dog win in conference tourney play. New Mexico is a solid 14-1 vs non conference teams and 9-3 ats off a conference loss. Tonight they play a Montana team that is off a big win on the road in their conference Championship to earn a bid. Teams coming off such a big win usually fall flat in the Tournament, especially vs teams who lost as a favorite. Look for the Lobos to send Montana home with a solid win and cover.
SEAN NURPHY
Northern Iowa @ UNLV
PICK: UNLV -1
I was a big supporter of this Northern Iowa team for much of the season, most recently cashing a ticket with them in the MVC Tournament final against Wichita State. However, I don't like the opening round matchup that they've drawn, and like last year, expect to see them make an early exit from the tournament.
It was a down year for the MVC in my opinion. The fact that they only send one team to the NCAA Tournament attests to that. Yes, Northern Iowa has a ton of experience, and plenty of talent, but when I watch them play, it seems that so much has to go right in order for them to win. An off shooting day on Thursday, and they don't even have a shot. Their offense can simply look that bad on some days.
UNLV is certainly battle tested, coming out of the MWC, which sends four teams to the tournament. The Rebels went 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS against tournament-bound opponents during the regular season and their conference tournament.
I like the versatility of this Rebels squad. Note that they rank 57th in the nation in terms of offensive efficiency and 31st in defensive efficiency. It's their defensive play that doesn't always get the credit it deserves. They've held the opposition under 40% shooting this season. During the MWC Tournament, they held their three opponents to 37.7% shooting, tightening up when it mattered most. That included two games against tournament teams in BYU and San Diego State.
The 8-9 game is always a popular spot for casual bettors and poolies to look for the minor upset and back the nine-seed. That appears to be the case here, with close to a 60/40 split in favor of the slight underdog Panthers. I'll go the other way and call for the Rebels to earn the right to take their shot at the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday. Take UNLV.
Dave Price
1 Unit on UTEP +2.5
The Miners are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Bulldogs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. UTEP is also an outstanding 7-1 ATS versus teams making 45% or more of their shots after 15 or more games into the season this season, winning by 10.8 points on average in these spots. This just goes to show you that shooting a high percentage against UTEP isn't enough in most cases. Butler is a good team, but I just think UTEP is a little more athletic and a little better. We'll take the points.