Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Northern Iowa +1
Bottom Line: Good defense and experience wins a lot of games this time of year and the Northern Iowa Panthers have been blessed with the good fortune of having both on their side. The Panthers allow a ridiculous 54.3 ppg. I expect this suffocating defense to be the difference. Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in road games versus good teams, outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game, after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 63.6 to 58.9. I also like the fact that N. Iowa is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, winning these games by an average score of 63.1 to 55.3. We'll take the Panthers.
Info Plays
3* on East Tennessee State +20
Reasons why E. Tennessee State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (KENTUCKY) - in non-conference games, off a win against a conference rival. This is a 66-31 ATS System hitting 68% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 8-4 this season alone.
2.) Kentucky is a freshmen-led team, and these youngsters will certainly be feeling the jitters of playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Wildcats have gotten by on talent alone this season, with little experience across the board. We look for them to struggle tonight enough for E. Tennessee State to get the cover. This team has played well against against the better teams in the country in recent history. E. Tennessee State is 31-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997. They are 26-8 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. E. Tennessee State is 16-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Finally, this team is 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games played in March.
3.) E. Tennessee State has played a few tournament teams this season and played well. They stayed within 13 points of Louisville on the road, and within 12 points of Tennessee on the road. They also have an 11-point road win over Arkansas on their resume. So they have proven they can hang with some very good teams. Bet East Tennessee State.
Joseph D'Amico
Robert Morris vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -18
To start their season, Robert Morris played and lost to Syracuse, Penn State, and Detroit, by an average of 23.6 PPG. They dropped to Pittsburgh by 24. They even got beaten up by Appalachian State, Kent State, and LIU Brooklyn. How can they stop one of the top units in college hoops? The Colonial's are miserable from the line, shooting just 66.1%. Facing a very physical Big East team like Villanova will be harmful. They can't go toe-to-toe with the 'Cat's nor can they take advantage when going to the FT line. Outside of Guard Karon Abraham (13.4 PPG) they don't have one player averaging DD's. Villanova has 3 players in Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Antonio Pena who are combining for 43.1 PPG. Villanova will beat them in the paint, from the line, and beyond the arc. The Colonial's are 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600 and 1-4 ATS their L5 non-conference games. The Wildcat's are 5-1 ATS their L6 as a favorite of 13 or more points, 4-1 ATS their L5 games played on neutral sites, and 7-2 ATS their L9 non-conference games. Villanova has fallen off a bit lately. They must come out and make a statement in the first round. Villanova crushes Robert Morris
John Martin
1 Unit on Georgetown -13
Ohio's miracle run comes to an end in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Georgetown saved their best basketball for last, making it all the way to the Big East Championship game, losing by just 2 points to WVU on a game-winner by De'Sean Butler. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games, and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Ohio is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Big East conference. Ohio has really struggled shooting the ball this season, hitting just 40.3% of their shots on the road this year. Georgetown is an excellent defensive team, and will make life very difficult for the Bobcats. Georgetown gives up just 64.6 points/game and 40.4% shooting on the road this year. The Hoyas are very efficient on the offensive end as well, scoring 73.2 points/game on 49.8% shooting. I see no way the Hoyas don't win this game by at least 15 points Thursday.
Black Widow
1* on Texas -5
Wake Forest lost 5 of their last 6 games overall, and they have no momentum heading into the Big Dance. The Demon Deacons capped off their season with an ugly 62-83 loss to Miami (Florida) in the ACC Tournament. Yes, Texas has faced their fair share of struggles of late, but at least they've been competitive. Remember, this Longhorns' team was once ranked as the #1 team in the country earlier this season. Texas still has a ton of talent, and we love their chances of advancing to the second round with a blowout win over Wake Forest in their opener. In three seasons with the team, Demon Deacons' coach Dino Gaudio has yet to register a postseason victory (in the conference tournament or NCAA Tournament). He just cannot get it done in the postseason. But the struggles extend past Gaudio's tenure. Wake Forest is 15-37 ATS (-25.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997. Worse yet, the Demon Deacons are 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in NCAA tournament games since 1997. Texas gets their act together in the first round and plays up to their potential against an inferior team. Take the Longhorns and lay the points.
Jack Jones
UTEP vs. Butler
Play: Butler -2
The Butler Bulldogs are determined to make some noise in the Big Dance this year. This is a veteran group with all 5 starters back from last year's team that suffered a first-round exit. Butler enters this game with the nation's longest winning streak at 20 games. Butler went 28-4 this season and they didn't do all of their damage in the Horizon League. The Bulldogs stepped out of conference and beat Ohio State and Xavier earlier this season, two teams that are seeded highly in the NCAA Tournament. Butler is one of the best defensive teams in the country, giving up just 60.0 PPG and 41.4% shooting. Their defense, along with their experience, gives the Bulldogs a huge edge over UTEP in my opinion.
This play also falls under a system that is 45-15 (75%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against neutral court teams (UTEP) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. Butler is the better defensive team, and they have been on a mission since the start of their 20-game winning streak. Take the Bulldogs over UTEP.
Scott Delaney
Florida vs. BYU, at Oklahoma City
I am a rare believer of teams that win and die by the three; today I'm changing my beliefs.
Brigham Young shoots 41.9 percent from beyond the arc, while the Gators don't have one player with 10 or more three-point attempts who can shoot with that kind of accuracy.
And if you can't match a team from long-range, you have to hope you can defend it. But defending the trey has been troublesome for Florida, which has given up 28-of-58 three-pointers (nearly 50 percent) in its last three losses to Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi State.
The biggest culprit will likely be Jimmer Fredette, who scores 21.7 points per game and 44.8 percent from beyond the three-point stripe. The Cougars' point guard isn't your normal gym rat, either. The 6-foot-2, 21-year-old junior has played pick-up ball in at least two upstate-New York prisons, as a family friend had connections for him to play some 'hardcore' games.
Thus, anyone wondering if he can handle the pressure of a first round game against herky-jerky Florida, you can put those concerns to rest.
As Florida coach Billy Donovan said: "Fredette is one of the best kept secrets in college basketball."
Fredette leads a Cougars offense that ranks second in the nation in scoring at 83 points per game, and that leads the nation in free-throw shooting at 78.6 percent.
I'm laying the chalk in this one, as BYU rolls to the easy win and cover.
4♦ BRIGHAM YOUNG
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Baylor/Sam Houston State game to go over the total. Here we have two teams that average over 75 PPG and a Sam Houston team that absolutely doesn't know the meaning of playing defense. Baylor has scored 70 or more points in their last 8 games while Sam Houston State has scored 70 or more in 7 of their last 10. You want offense... watch this game. Both teams shoot better than 38% from beyond the arc and neither team can stop their opponents' long balls. Baylor shoots the rock even better on the road (44% from three-point land on the road) and they love to run up and down the floor with their guards. Sam Houston scored 92 points at Kentucky this season and 107 against Auburn, splitting those two games by losing at Kentucky but winning at Auburn. It's quite apparent that this team isn't void of scorers, but they are void of defense. Baylor might actually score in triple digits today. I think this game goes easily over the total.
2♦ Sam Houston State-Baylor OVER
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego St. vs. Tennessee (-3'), at Providence, RI
I've been dominating the FREE plays, on a run of 67-40-3 with my last 110. Today I have a comp winner in th Big Dance as I lay the chalk with Tennessee as the Vols take on San Diego St. in the first round.
A lot of people a claiming San Diego State can pull off the upset here tonight, but there’s no way the Volunteers are going to let that happen. The Aztecs have to go across the country and try and take down a damn good Tennessee team that has beaten some of the country’s best this season.
The level of competition is so different that the Vols face as opposed to the Aztecs. Tennessee has wins this season over Kentucky and Kansas – both rated No. 1 in the season and both with top seeds in this tournament. The Vols can beat the best – San Diego State can’t.
The Aztecs were on the bubble until a glorious run in the MWC tourney that had them beat Colorado State, New Mexico and UNLV. But this team is overmatched in this one.
San Diego State is just 5-12 ATS in neutral site games and 2-6 on Thursdays. Tennessee just won five of six to close the season and can lock down a team defensively. I’m laying the chalk with the Vols tonight.
3♦ TENNESSEE
Murray St. (+3) vs. Vanderbilt, at San Jose, CA
I'm on a 67-40-3 run with my FREE selections and today I have a comp winner on Murray State as the Racers take on Vanderbilt in San Jose, Calif.
This could be the best game of the opening round. These are two damn good basketball teams that are going to fighting for every loose ball, every rebound and every basket. I like the underdog Racers in this one as they are playing with a chip on their shoulder after going 30-4 and getting stuck with a 13th seed.
Vanderbilt is one of those teams that will look great one moment and then go six minutes without scoring and look like they have no clue. Look at their SEC semifinal loss to Mississippi State when they managed just 52 points in the 62-52 loss as 1 ½-point favorites. The Commodores shot just 34.6 percent from the floor (18-for-52), hit half their 3-pointers and still lost by 10.
Murray State won four straight to close the season (3-1 ATS) and crushed Morehead State in the championship game 62-51 as four-point favorites. This team was such a heavy favorite most of the season, their ATS record isn’t that impressive, but they played Cal down to the wire back in November and lost by six at a good Louisiana Tech squad. Their other losses were at Western Kentucky as a one-point pup and at Morehead St. late in the season.
The Racers know how to win because they’ve been expected to all season. They get good balance and spread the ball and the minutes around. Any one of six people could lead this team in scoring on any given night. Grab the points and go with Murray State in this one. It’s coming down to the final shot, just a matter of who makes it. Play the Racers.
5♦ MURRAY STATE
Karl Garrett
Old Dominion vs. NOTRE DAME (-2') - at New Orleans, LA
I enter Thursday on an 18-12-1 comp play run my last 31.
G-Man doesn't expect there to be too many points scored in this daytime tip-off, but I do expect the Irish to have more of the points, and enough of them for the cover too!
Tought to knock what the Monarchs have achieved this season, but after watching them struggle from the charity stripe down the stretch, I can definitely see that becoming an issue in a game I expect points to be at a premium.
Notre Dame has gone to a slow down style of play, and they have been rewarded with 6 wins in their last 7 games, not to mention 8 straight covers.
Of course having to play in the rugged Big East Conference will also benefit the Irish the longer this game wears on.
Just not getting enough points with the Monarchs to make a solid enough case to back them plus the number, so take the Irish as they roll into Saturday's second round with the win and cover.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Florida vs. BYU (-4') - at Oklahoma City, OK
8 times is the charm!
The last 7 times the Cougars have played in the Big Dance, it has been one-and-done, but not today.
BYU's experience will win out over Billy Donovan's young Florida Gator team this afternoon in Oklahoma City.
The Cougars can light up the scoreboard, as they come in with the 2nd highest average in the nation at 83 points per game. They are also deadly from the free-throw line where they are a nation's best 79% as a team!
Florida only won once in their final 5 games, and really are lucky to be dancing if you ask me.
The points didn't really help Florida's cause either down the stretch, as the Gators went just 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 contests.
As for BYU, they closed by covering 7 of their last 9 when laying points, and for my money today is the day the Cougars finally get out of the first round.
Lay the points with BYU.
5♦ BYU
Chuck O'Brien
Old Dominion vs. Notre Dame (-2'), at New Orleans
Take Notre Dame as a small favorite against Old Dominion in Thursday’s opening round of the Big Dance.
Always looking to ride teams that finished the season strong, and the Irish certainly did that. They won six of their final seven games, with the only loss coming in Friday’s Big East conference tournament semifinals to eventual champ West Virginia (and Notre Dame had a game-winning three-pointer just miss as time expired). The Irish cashed as a five-point ‘dog against West Virginia, and thus enter the Big Dance on an impressive 8-0 ATS run.
Old Dominion also finished strong, winning five in a row and seven of eight. But all of those wins came in the weak Colonial Athletic Association conference. The one loss was a decisive nine-point defeat at Northern Iowa in a Bracket Buster game. While ODU was fattening up on such teams as William & Mary, VCU (twice), Towson (twice), Georgia State and George Mason, the Irish were beating the likes of Pitt (twice), Georgetown, Marquette and UConn.
I know ODU is considered a “Cinderella” in the Tournament, but really the Monarchs haven’t defeated any team of consequence other than Georgetown way back on Dec. 19 (a 61-57 win as a nine-point road underdog). Well, as noted, Notre Dame won at Georgetown, too. It was much more recently (Feb. 27) and much more impressive (78-64). Also, aside from Georgetown, ODU faced five other teams that either qualified for the Big Dance (Missouri, Richmond and Northern Iowa) or nearly did (Dayton, Mississippi State). It went 0-5 SU and ATS in those five games.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Stephen Nover
Northern Iowa at Unlv, at Oklahoma City
Northern Iowa dominated the Missouri Valley Conference, while posting a 28-4 overall mark.
UNLV, on the other hand, was up and down this season. The Rebels were clearly either the third or fourth best team in the Mountain West Conference behind New Mexico, BYU and possibly San Diego State.
Northern Iowa is a smart, well-coached, veteran team that plays excellent team defense. The Panthers have all of their starters back from last year. They include four seniors. They made the Big Dance last season. This is the culmination of their college careers.
The Panthers are the kind of methodical team that can frustrate UNLV. Northern Iowa is 14-5 ATS the past 19 times it has faced teams with a winning percentage of .600 or higher.
UNLV's Lon Kruger is a good coach, but this isn't one of his better Rebel teams.
1♦ NORTHERN IOWA
Brett Atkins
The Big Dance is here and I've got a free winner for you tonight on Northern Iowa as the Panthers will take care of business against UNLV.
Northern Iowa is a very good basketball team that can control the pace of the game and force the opposition into turnovers. Just the kind of squad that gives UNLV fits.
A slow pace is not what the Rebels want to see. They like to get up and down the court with their defensive intensity, athleticism and deep roster. They didn't look good in the MWC finals, losing 55-45 as a four-point favorite. UNLV was outrebounded and held to below 40 percent shooting.
Northern Iowa ran away with the Missouri Valley Conference title and crushed Wichita State in the tournament title game 67-52 as a three-point favorite. They are on ATS runs of 4-0 on a neutral court, 5-0 in non-conference action and 4-0 as a neutral site underdog. Love the Panthers in this one.
3♦ NORTHERN IOWA
Jay McNeil
Old Dominion vs. Notre Dame, at New Orleans
The Monarchs come into this one riding a five-game winning streak, including a 60-53 win over William & Mary last Monday to capture the Colonial title, and though Notre Dame finished somewhat strong as well, I like my chances with the underdog in this one.
Old Dominion senior center Gerald Lee leads the team, and has been brilliant in the postseason thus far, earning CAA Tournament MVP honors. The first team All-CAA selection averages a team-high 14.6 points per game.
So as much as the Monarchs have to worry about Luke Harangody, the Irish must focus on Lee; but the best thing about the Monarchs is they have a team concept, whereas the Irish depend on Harangody.
Old Dominion has an Ratings Percentage Index rank of 27th overall, while the
Irish finished with the 46th best RPI in the nation.
The Monarchs also roll in on ATS runs of 4-1 after an ATS loss and 5-2 against Big East foes. Give me the underestimated Monarchs in this one.
2♦ OLD DOMINION
Joel Tyson
14-8 comp play run the last 22 days.
Both Wake Forest and Texas closed the season poorly, but my money in this first round game will be on the 'Horns, as I have a feeling this "new life" will inspire the former # 1 ranked team to a strong showing in this nightcap from New Orleans.
Texas does sport a 6-2 spread mark the last 8 games played against the ACC, while Wake comes into this game having dropped 5 of their last 6 straight up, and 3 of their last 5 against the spread.
Going to lay it with the Longhorns in this opening round meeting.
1♦ TEXAS