Jeff Benton
For Thursday, I’ll kick off March Mayhem by backing Northern Iowa plus the couple of points against UNLV.
If there’s one thing the Runnin’ Rebels struggled with this season it was teams that have a tall presence down low. For instance, they lost twice in three games (0-3 ATS) against Utah, which has a talented 7-footer in David Foster. In fact, the only time UNLV beat the Utes was in last week’s Mountain West conference tournament, when Foster was hobbled by a bad ankle and only played 20 minutes (and yet still had five rebounds and two blocks).
Well, Northern Iowa has a gifted big man in 7-foot center Jordan Eglseder. Eglseder led his team in scoring (12 ppg), field-goal shooting (53.4 percent) and rebounding (7.3 per game) while also notching a team-best 28 blocks in 28 games. UNLV’s biggest player is 6-foot-10 Brice Massamba, who got better as the season went along but still averaged just 4.7 points and slightly more than 13 minutes per game. The Rebels’ next tallest player that sees significant action stands 6-foot-8.
Make no mistake: Northern Iowa is going to pound the ball down low to Eglseder early and often offensively, and at the other end of the court the big man is going to protect the rim and force UNLV to knock down outside shots. The Rebels are a decent shooting team (46.3 percent), but let’s see if that continues in an arena they’ve never played in, and against a Northern Iowa team that plays defense as well as any team in the country (the Panthers give up just 54.3 ppg, second best in the nation!)
At 28-4 and ranked in the Top 25 for much of the last half of the season, Northern Iowa is a very frisky team in this tournament. And because of the major mismatch in the post, this is a dream matchup for the Panthers, who are strong at the guard position and are Tournament tested (last year, as a No. 12 seed, they gave No. 5 seed Purdue fits before losing 61-56, covering as an 8½-point underdog).
5♦ NORTHERN IOWA
Chuck O'Brien
Take Notre Dame as a small favorite against Old Dominion in Thursday’s opening round of the Big Dance.
Always looking to ride teams that finished the season strong, and the Irish certainly did that. They won six of their final seven games, with the only loss coming in Friday’s Big East conference tournament semifinals to eventual champ West Virginia (and Notre Dame had a game-winning three-pointer just miss as time expired). The Irish cashed as a five-point ‘dog against West Virginia, and thus enter the Big Dance on an impressive 8-0 ATS run.
Old Dominion also finished strong, winning five in a row and seven of eight. But all of those wins came in the weak Colonial Athletic Association conference. The one loss was a decisive nine-point defeat at Northern Iowa in a Bracket Buster game. While ODU was fattening up on such teams as William & Mary, VCU (twice), Towson (twice), Georgia State and George Mason, the Irish were beating the likes of Pitt (twice), Georgetown, Marquette and UConn.
I know ODU is considered a “Cinderella” in the Tournament, but really the Monarchs haven’t defeated any team of consequence other than Georgetown way back on Dec. 19 (a 61-57 win as a nine-point road underdog). Well, as noted, Notre Dame won at Georgetown, too. It was much more recently (Feb. 27) and much more impressive (78-64). Also, aside from Georgetown, ODU faced five other teams that either qualified for the Big Dance (Missouri, Richmond and Northern Iowa) or nearly did (Dayton, Mississippi State). It went 0-5 SU and ATS in those five games.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Scott Spreitzer
Robert Morris v. Villanova
Pick: Robert Morris
The Colonials "hung" the number against national runner-up Michigan State last season and I expect their three-guard lineup to give Villanova some problems on Thursday. Not that Robert Morris is going to pull the major outright upset, but I wouldn't be surprised if they cover this spread by 9-10 points. Not only did the Colonials prove their worth against this level of opposition when they played the Spartans, but I didn't like the way Villanova closed the season, losing five of their last seven games SU. And it must be noted that the Wildcats had their problems a season ago against American University. I believe Villanova is going to find out that it's easier to slow a pace than it is to quicken one. The Colonials play stout defense, holding this season's opponents to less than 41% shooting. They would love it if this game was played in the mid-60s. Robert Morris is a senior-laden team with plenty of experience. Their depth isn't bad either. No less than six players average between 13.4 ppg and 6.5 ppg. There are no weak-links on this team. Leading scorer Karon Abraham also "cans" 44% of this treys, which will force the 'Nova backourt outside and not allow them to help out a lot against mid-range shots. This is a nice advantage, especially with Jay Wright switching to a bigger lineup that focuses their attention in and around the paint. Villanova will find a way to win and advance. But I don't believe they'll get near the hefty point-spread. I'm taking the points with Robert Morris on Thursday.
DUNKEL INDEX
Orlando at Miami
The Heat look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog. Miami is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3)
Game 701-702: Orlando at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.419; Miami 123.001
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 1 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 187
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under
Game 703-704: New Orleans at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.769; Denver 126.757
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 13; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 14; 214
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+14); Over
NCAAB
UTEP vs. Butler
The Miners look to take advantage of a Butler team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 neutral site games. UTEP is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Miners favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+2 1/2)
Game 705-706: Ohio vs. Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 58.014; Georgetown 73.673
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 13
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-13)
Game 707-708: San Diego State vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 68.897; Tennessee 66.815
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+3 1/2)
Game 709-710: Robert Morris vs. Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 54.657; Villanova 69.078
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+18 1/2)
Game 711-712: St. Mary's (CA) vs. Richmond
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 64.298; Richmond 65.777
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (+2 1/2)
Game 713-714: East Tennessee State vs. Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State 52.867; Kentucky 72.682
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 20
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-19 1/2)
Game 715-716: Wake Forest vs. Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 62.370; Texas 68.839
Dunkel Line: Texas by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-4 1/2)
Game 717-718: Sam Houston vs. Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Sam Houston 59.024; Baylor 69.157
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 10
Vegas Line: Baylor by 11
Dunkel Pick: Sam Houston (+11)
Game 719-720: Old Dominion vs. Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 65.931; Notre Dame 71.754
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 6
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-2)
Game 721-722: Lehigh vs. Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 56.235; Kansas 78.492
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 26
Dunkel Pick: Lehigh (+26)
Game 723-724: Northern Iowa vs. UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 66.699; UNLV 66.530
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: UNLV by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+1 1/2)
Game 725-726: North Texas at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 55.666; Kansas State 69.866
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 14
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 16
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+16)
Game 727-728: Florida vs. BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 66.643; BYU 71.440
Dunkel Line: BYU by 5
Vegas Line: BYU by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-4 1/2)
Game 729-730: UTEP vs. Butler
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 68.375; Butler 66.868
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+2 1/2)
Game 731-732: Murray State vs. Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 63.714; Vanderbilt 65.752
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 3
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (+3)
Game 733-734: Montana vs. New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 57.736; New Mexico 65.680
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 8
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 9
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+9)
Game 735-736: Washington vs. Marquette
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 70.778; Marquette 70.449
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Marquette by 2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2)
NHL
San Jose at Vancouver
The Sharks look to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. San Jose is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+120)
Game 1-2: St. Louis at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.605; NY Rangers 12.001
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-135); Under
Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.996; Boston 11.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 5-6: Ottawa at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.113; Atlanta 10.447
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-125); Under
Game 7-8: Washington at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.601; Carolina 11.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over
Game 9-10: Buffalo at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.708; Tampa Bay 11.210
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-125); Under
Game 11-12: New Jersey at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.935; Toronto 12.597
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+105); Under
Game 13-14: Phoenix at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.586; Florida 11.608
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-135); Under
Game 15-16: Minnesota at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.726; Nashville 12.193
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-160); Over
Game 17-18: Philadelphia at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.428; Dallas 11.304
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Over
Game 19-20: San Jose at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.056; Vancouver 10.857
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+120); Over
Game 21-22: Chicago at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.631; Los Angeles 11.225
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+100); Over
Sam Martin
Washington at Marquette
Prediction: Marquette
This is more of a play against Washington than it is a play on Marquette, as we dont like this Washington team away from home. Sure, they made a run at the end of the season, but this is still a team that lost its first seven road games, and wasnt really playing well until they started playing against a weak PAC 10 Conference. Marquette takes this one. 5* Play on Marquette.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
St. Louis Blues @ New York Rangers
PICK: New York Rangers -135
With our winner on the New York Islanders over the Vancouver Canucks two nights ago, the "free play" NHL run extends to seven in a row.
For a number of different reasons I expect the New York Rangers to get an elusive home victory tonight as the St. Louis Blues make a rare appearance in the Big Apple.
The Blue Shirts have dropped five of seven overall and are in ninth spot in the East, three-points behind the Bruins (a team which they visit on Sunday and will be the first of eight road contests over their final eleven).
The Rangers are 1-1-2 since the Olympic break;
“We definitely don’t want this to be the end of the year,” goaltender Henrik Lundqvist said. “If we want to keep playing, we have to raise our level and play our best hockey.”
Lundqvist has been the best player on this team and certainly can't be blamed for this teams predicament; he's allowed just five total goals over the last three games.
New York will also be playing with the "revenge factor"; St. Louis smoked the Rangers 4-1 on January 16th.
The Blues went on a bit of a run before a two-game slide and sit seven points back of Detroit for the final spot in the West.
They are coming off a listless 5-3 loss in Colorado.
Bottom line: Both teams are struggling, but New York still has a legitimate shot at getting back into the playoff picture.
With so many of their remaining games away from friendly confines to end the year, I believe the Blue Shirts understand the importance of this particular contest in its drive for a playoff position; home ice advantage can't be overlooked in this case either.
When taking all of those factors into consideration, very good value on the home side here.
John Martin
1 Unit on Georgetown -13
Ohio's miracle run comes to an end in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Georgetown saved their best basketball for last, making it all the way to the Big East Championship game, losing by just 2 points to WVU on a game-winner by De'Sean Butler. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games, and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Ohio is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Big East conference. Ohio has really struggled shooting the ball this season, hitting just 40.3% of their shots on the road this year. Georgetown is an excellent defensive team, and will make life very difficult for the Bobcats. Georgetown gives up just 64.6 points/game and 40.4% shooting on the road this year. The Hoyas are very efficient on the offensive end as well, scoring 73.2 points/game on 49.8% shooting. I see no way the Hoyas don't win this game by at least 15 points Thursday.
Derek Mancini
St. Mary's (+2) vs Richmond at Providence, RI
Three straight Free Play winners with the Magic routing the Spurs 110-84 last night! Crazy line movement, as gamblers scramble to jump aboard Richmond. Problem is, the Spiders went from being college basketball's best kept secret early on, to the "sleeper" everyone is talking about now. Value is tricky thing, and with a swing as large as we've seen in this number, the value has swung as well - back to the Gaels.
Both schools excelled in neutral court play, but when you look at the Spiders as a favorite, their just 1-4 ATS over their L5 in that position. Gaels have been excellent out of conference (19-6-1 ATS), and after a spread cover (12-4 ATS), so when St. Mary's is playing well, they usually keep it going.
Were you that impressed with Richmond coming out of the A-10 tourney? They had issues with UMASS, got by Xavier in OT, and lost to Temple -backing into March Mayhem despite all the public appeal. St. Mary's was once a bubble team, but after dominating the WCC tourney (including a 19-point spanking of Gonzaga in the title game), no question which team comes into this game hotter.
We haven't even mentioned the greatest x-factor, Omar Samhan, who is one of the few legitmate centers we're going to see during the Mayhem. He's a game-changer on both ends of the court, and with two very good distributors in the backcourt (McConnell and Dellavedova combined 306 assists!), the Gaels are poised to advance here. St. Mary's plus the points is the play in this contest.
2♦ ST. MARY'S
Wake Forest vs Texas (-5) at New Orleans, LA
Three straight Free Play winners with the Magic routing the Spurs 110-84 last night! Two schools who backed into the tourney, losing key games down the stretch, but that's where the comparison's end. Everything from match ups to coaching gives the Longhorns the edge tonight.
Wake Forest's 83-62 loss to Miami-Florida in the ACC tourney was the final nail in the coffin for me. I've seen teams play bad games, but the Deacons got thoroughly out-played and out-coached by a medicore Hurricanes team. Texas has had its ups and downs, but that's more a result of losing two point guards along the way, not bad coaching.
Did you know Wake Forest is on a 1-10 ATS slide in tourney play? How about their 6-24 record ATS on neutral courts... Are you seeing a pattern yet? Texas went 6-2 ATS L/8 vs. the ACC, and has gone 4-1 ATS in their L/5 as a neutral site favorite.
Aminu Al-Farouq and Ish Smith are very good players, but as a team they're overmatched in this contest. The combo of James and Pittman is too much to handle, especially with the way we've seen the Deacons play on neutral courts in the past. Throw in the coaching edge with Rick Barnes, and I'm laying the points with Texas (getting their act together) Thursday night in New Orleans.
1♦ TEXAS
Stephen Nover
Northern Iowa at UNLV, at Oklahoma City
Northern Iowa dominated the Missouri Valley Conference, while posting a 28-4 overall mark.
UNLV, on the other hand, was up and down this season. The Rebels were clearly either the third or fourth best team in the Mountain West Conference behind New Mexico, BYU and possibly San Diego State.
Northern Iowa is a smart, well-coached, veteran team that plays excellent team defense. The Panthers have all of their starters back from last year. They include four seniors. They made the Big Dance last season. This is the culmination of their college careers.
The Panthers are the kind of methodical team that can frustrate UNLV. Northern Iowa is 14-5 ATS the past 19 times it has faced teams with a winning percentage of .600 or higher.
UNLV's Lon Kruger is a good coach, but this isn't one of his better Rebel teams.
1♦ NORTHERN IOWA
Wake Forest vs. Texas (-5), at New Orleans
No, this isn't January when Texas ruled the basketball world ranked No. 1
The Longhorns have had a long, hard tumble culminated by a 19-point loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Conference Tournament a week ago.
But the talent Texas possess can't be denied. I see the Longhorns doing a lot of soul-searching having touched bottom and resurrecting themselves in this first-round Big Dance matchup.
It's possible to do that when you have big-time talents in Dexter Pittman, a 6-foot-10, 290-pound center, and Damion Jones, who led the conference in double-doubles while averaging 18 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.
It's not like Wake Forest doesn't have problems either. The Demon Deacons have lost five of their last six games. This includes an 83-62 defeat to 12th-seeded Miami in the first round of the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.
Wake Forest is 0-4 under coach Dino Gaudio in post-season tournaments. The Demon Deacons under Gaudio were the higher seed in each of those four losses, all of which occurred by double-digits.
Cleveland State knocked out Wake Forest in the opening round of the Big Dance last year. The Demon Deacons were a No. 4 seed. They were the highest-seeded team to lose in the first round.
Going back to their last 12 Big Dance games, the Demon Deacons are 1-11 ATS.
1♦ TEXAS
Tom Freese
Montana at New Mexico
Prediction: New Mexico
Montana is 22-9 this year. Guard Anthony Johnson scores 19.6 points a game while shooting 46.4% from behind the arc. Center Brian Quale scores 9.7 points and 6.9 rebounds a game. Guard Ryan Staudacher scores 8.6 points a game. Guard Will Cherry scores 8.3 points a game. The Grizzlies score 70 points a game. Montana is 3-8 ATS their last 11 games as underdogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points. New Mexico is 29-4 this year. Guard Darington Hopson scores 16.2 points and 9.2 rebounds a game. Forward Ramon Martinez scores 13.8 points and 6 rebounds a game. Guard Dairese Gary scores 12.7 points a game. The Lobos score 76.6 points a game. New Mexico is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games off a straight up loss and they are 35-17-2 ATS their last 54 Non-Conference games. PLAY ON NEW MEXICO -
Mike Hook
Richmond -2 vs St. Mary's
Year after year we see teams come into the Dance that haven't played in a while. Fact is, the WCC is looking to change when they end their conference tournament partly due to this "issue"
The reality is that St. Marys hasn't been on the playing court in 10 days. As hot as they were in the conference tournament, the last thing they wanted was a break.
I admit, both of these teams were on my "sleeper" list heading into the tournament. I don't like that one of these teams will be out today. However, value is value, and that's why i'm on Richmond. I truly believe this Spiders team is special. The fact i can get one of the most respected teams in the tournament at -2 is VALUE in my opinion. This Richmond team wins games the right way, and they are used to winning close games. I trust their overall defense and their overall guard play more than i trust St. Mary's. At this time of the season, guard play and defense wins games in the tournament. I simply trust Richmond more, and the situational angles match up as well.
I respect St. Marys a great deal, and i know Samhan is going to get his. But 1 player can't beat 5. I know St. Mary's has pretty good guard play as well, but Richmond is simply on another level in my opinion. Again, the Richmond players are simply a bit more diverse than St. Mary's players are. If Richmond is struggling in one area, i know they can find other ways to get the job done. If St. Mary's isn't hitting 40% of their 3 pointers, they are DONE.
Sac Lawson
N. Texas +16 vs Kansas St.
Fact is, I'm just not sold on K-state being able to shoot with much consistency, and I love the pressure that North Texas gives opposing guards. The K-State guards are good, but they'll struggle to stay out of foul trouble with the relentless pressure NT will bring with the dribble drive.
RJ Robbins
North Texas vs. Kansas State
Play: N. Texas +16
North Texas has been Red Hot winning their last 11 games SU while going 7-3 ATS. NT has been a money making 17-7 ATS this season including an eye popping 7-1 as a dog. The Eagles have 5 returning starters that will help them compete against KST and should be able to cover the 16.
Wunderdog Sports
Florida vs. B.Y.U.
Play: Under 147.5
Sometimes you have to break a team down as to how they do playing very good teams. The Gators have proven one thing, and that is defense is their calling card vs. the top teams. Their last five games vs. teams in the dance have shown none to get over the 140 total points scored mark. The average points scored has been 132.4 ppg in the five. It has been their calling card for years, resulting in a 37-16 mark to the UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. The Gators have also been 18-6 to the UNDER in their last 24 out-of conference games. While BYU has proven it can score in the up-tempo Mountain West, they only played one non-conference game vs. an NCAA Tournament bound team, and were held to a very telling season-low 61 points. I'm going with the UNDER in this one.
Richard Wit
UTEP +2 over Butler
Bulldogs no longer the hunters, but the hunted . . . bearing a lofty seed with a squad not their best. Brute force beats finesse in this spot. Those who've seen UTEP play more than once have to be impressed with their size and power.