THE PREZ
San Diego State vs Tennessee
We feel that the Mountain West Conference was the most underrated conference in the country this season, so we will gladly back the conference champion San Diego State Aztecs as underdogs here vs. the Tennessee Volunteers from the overrated SEC.
All that the Aztecs had to do to win the MWC title was beat the regular season champions New Mexico in the semifinals and then UNLV on their home floor in the final, and they passed both tests with flying colors. San Diego State finished with an identical record as Tennessee at 25-8, but unlike the Volunteers, the Aztecs had a winning 17-13 mark against the spread and we already gave our thoughts on the two conferences.
The Vols burned some money this year by going just 13-16-1 ATS, and while they were 15-1 at home, they were a more modest 10-7 on the road or at neutral sites, and they had a razor thin average wining margin away from Knoxville of only +0.8 points per game. Tennessee did not close particularly strong either, going 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. Now granted, they ran into Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game, but losing 74-45 is still very disconcerting.
Many people do not know just how good San Diego State is, and that group may include the Tennessee players. They will know after this one is over though as the Aztecs pull the outright upset.
Pick: San Diego State +3.5
LT PROFITS
UTEP vs Butler
The UTEP Miners were shocked by Houston in the Conference USA Championship Game, but we look for them to rebound in a big way here vs. an overrated Butler Bulldogs team.
The Miners may be best team in the country that most people have not seen, as they finished at 26-6 and that surprising loss to Houston snapped a 16-game winning streak. UTEP is a well balanced team that played well on the road this season, going 11-4 while outscoring their Division I foes away from home by an average score of 74.3-66.3, shooting 45.5 percent from the floor while limiting their road opponents to a miniscule 35.6 percent shooting.
In fact, the Miners defense is underrated and often gets overlooked, as they rank 15 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Pomeroy, surrendering only .882 points per possession. UTEP also ranks an excellent 18 in effective field goal percentage against, holding opponents to just 43.3 percent on two-point shots and 30.7 percent on three-point attempts.
Now Butler is ranked highly nationally and they own the longest winning streak in the country thanks to a perfect 20-0 Horizon League record. However, similar to the Memphis team of last year that entered the Big Dance with the longest winning streak in the nation vs. a weak conference, we feel that the Horizon League was terrible this year, and like Memphis in 2009, we do not think that the Bulldogs have been toughened enough for this jump in class.
Thus, look for UTEP to take advantage and win this contest going away.
Pick: UTEP +2.5
Ben Burns
Washington @ Carolina
PICK: Carolina +1.5
It's true that the Capitals have performed well without superstar Alex Ovechkin in the lineup. That said, they're certainly not a "better" team without one of the world's best players. He'll be out again tonight, finishing off his latest suspension.
It's also true that the Caps have beaten the Hurricanes in three of four meetings this season. (Note that Ovechkin had seven assists in those games.) However, a closer look reveals that ALL three Washington wins came by a single goal. Looking back further and we find that the Caps' last four wins over the Canes ALL came by just one goal, as did six of their last eight wins in the series.
While the Canes have lost two in a row, they'd been on a red hot 9-1-1 run before that. The last two games notwithstanding, they've thrived at this time of the year. They're now 23-10 (+13.7) in the month of March, the past few seasons.
If you're looking for an underdog with a solid shot at the upset, take a look at Carolina. If you don't mind laying some extra juice for a higher-percentage chance of cashing, consider Carolina (+1.5 goals) on the puck-line.
Bob Balfe
Washington +2 over Marquette
Coach Buzz Williams did a tremendous job this year with the Golden Eagles. It is no secret that this team doesn’t have much talent and they are very undersized but their desire to win flies under the radar and can not be replicated. Washington has the size and talent throughoutt their entire lineup. This game will also be closer to home for them and it is just a matter of time before a team that lives by the 3-pointer dies by the 3-pointer. Marquette came a long way this year but definitely over-achieved. Tonight, the Huskies will win the rebound and second-chance point battle. The physical edge also will show, especially during the last ten minutes of the game. Take Washington.