Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think UNLV is showing some great value as a 3-point favorite here. A lot of that has to do with this being a 12 vs 5 matchup and the public jumping all over California. I've watched both of these teams play and I have not been that impressed with Cal. They don't have a true inside presence on offense as they run most of their offense through their three-guards. UNLV generates a lot of turnovers on defense with blocks and steals that lead to a lot of easy baskets in transition. It will only be that much easier for the Rebels defensively only having to worry about shutting down the perimeter. I'm also not a fan of Cal's defense. They struggle to guard the perimeter and don't create any turnovers. I give UNLV the edge on both sides of the ball, which makes them an automatic play with this line.
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Memphis +1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Saint Mary's had to play in Dayton for a play-in game with Middle Tennessee on Tuesday night and then has to play Memphis in the #6/11 game. Yes, the higher seed is actually the underdog here. Matthew Dellavedova is a great guard for Saint Mary's but I like a rested squad that is well coached by Josh Pastor.
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Southern vs. GonzagaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SouthernFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re not expecting this to be the first-ever win for a No. 16 seed vs. a No. 1 in the Big Dance. But capable SWAC reps have usually avoided embarrassment in sub-regional action. And the fact the Selection Committee didn’t see fit to send Baton Rouge-based Southern U (16) to one of the Dayton play-in games suggests that the Jaguars have a little more going for them than recent SWAC champs. Indeed, after being toughened by a brutal non-conference slate that saw Southern be more than respectable at locales such as Nebraska, Wyoming (when the Cowboys were at full strength in November and on their way to a national ranking in late December), and Tulane, plus a win at capable Texas A&M, this might not be your normal 16th-seeded pushover. Besides, Gonzaga (1) could be feeling the heady nectar of its first-ever NCAA No. 1 (its best previously was a 2 in 2004). While 7-0 Kelly Olynyk (17.7 ppg) is an impossible matchup for the Jags, Southern does possess the quickness on the perimeter than many believe can give Gonzaga some trouble. Watch Jags’ six-man Malcolm Miller (16 ppg), who provides instant offense off the bench and is a 46% three-point shooter. No compelling reason for the Zags to run up the score with more challenging assignments on deck.
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Akron at Virginia CommonwealthFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Virginia CommonwealthFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Shaka Smart's Rams' team is the best in the nation in creating defensive pressure. VCU (26-8) not only steals the ball in 17.1% of their opponent's possessions but they also force turnovers in 28.7% of their opponent's possessions. Both metrics are tops in the nation which is a very ominous sign for a Zips team that has lost their point guard Alex Abreu to an injury. As it is, Arkon turned the ball over 20.4% of the time with Abreu in charge (201st in the nation). The Zips need to compensate for these lost possessions -- but this not a team that likes to rely on the 3-ball given their 36.6% three-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio (69th in the nation). Akron nails only 33.8% of these shots (198th in the nation). They will not be able to generate enough offense against this Rams' team that is 20th in the nation with an Offensive Efficiency of 113.3. There is a reason that Smart's teams at VCU have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games in the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points with VCU.
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Montana vs. SyracuseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: MontanaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We have seen Syracuse in this position before. As a number four seed back in 2005, the Orange lost to number 13 seed Vermont and if they are not careful, they could be a victim once again. The regular season ended horribly for Syracuse which lost four of its last five games and turn what was a very impressive season to one that was pretty average. But then the Orange gave their fans some life with wins over Seton Hall, Pittsburgh and Georgetown. Then after building a big lead over Louisville, they allowed a 27-3 run and the questions once again came out. Montana has responded very well after the loss of forward Mathias Ward who was lost for the season in February with a foot injury. He was the leading scorer at the time, averaging 14.8 ppg and after going down, the Grizzlies has to rely more on their backcourt and Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar have not disappointed as they account for 38 percent of the team's scoring. Overall, the Grizzlies have a 6.1 ppg scoring margin and they have won six straight games so momentum is clearly on their side. Syracuse got a pretty bad draw as well as it has to head out to San Jose for its first set of games. The Orange could have some issues against the Grizzlies matching up with their great outside shooting. Montana meanwhile has a shorter trip and got a better than expected seed as head coach Wayne Tinkle said Montana's close games with some of the top Mid-Major programs in the nation like South Dakota St. and Davidson, as well as their first game against Colorado St., helped the Grizzlies snag a higher seed. Montana is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games following a conference win by three points or fewer while Syracuse is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss by 15 or more points. A 13 seed has defeated a 4 seed in each of the last five years, including twice in 2008. While the outright upset is not out of the question, the generous amount of points here makes this a play on Montana.
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Cal/UNLV Over 132FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams are solid offensively. California averages 67.5 points per game while UNLV averages 71.7 points per game. Neither team has a defense that intimidates their opponents. California is allowing 66.4 per game and UNLV 64.7 when playing away from home. The over is 5-1 in California’s last 6 games against Mountain West teams and it is 6-2 in UNLV’s last 8 vs teams from the PAC-12.
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California’s offense has been hot coming into the NCAA tournament averaging 74.5 points per game in their last two games against Stanford and Utah. When these teams met back in December UNLV put up 76 points and California scored 75 points. The total on that game was set at 147.5, which is obviously substantially higher than the total on today’s game. Not much has changed for these teams since that game so it seems the total is much lower than it should be.
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Gonzaga -22FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been hearing all week that they are the worst number one seed and that they aren't going to get to the Final Four. Mark Few's team has been consistently great against inferior teams this year, and this Southern team is very inferior. Southern hasn't played anyone good this year since their season opener when they lost to Iowa State by 23 points. Southern will be outclassed badly here. Gonzaga should make a major statement. Take Gonzaga.
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St. Louis -9½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis has won and covered 15 of their L16. They are a very well-balanced unit. Five players are either flirting with or posting DDs with Dwayne Evans leading the team in both scoring (13.1PPG) and rebounds (7.7 RPG). They play very methodically on offense forcing foes to adjust to their game. It is the Billikens "D" that truly stands out. They led the Atlantic 10 in both scoring defense and TO margin. They rank 19th , yielding a mere 58.1 PPG and allowing just 41.3% FGs. 6'11" 240 lb Rob Loe and 6'9" 240 lb Cody Ellis will play very physical against New Mexico State's 7'5" 355 lb, Sim Bhullar. The Center averages 10.2 PPG and 6.5 RPG . NM State won 5 straight but those wins were against Louisiana Tech, Texas Arlington twice, Idaho, and Texas State. The only solid team they had faced this season was back-to-back contests vs. New Mexico in December in which NM State lost and failed to cover both. Because of their 2 Big men, the Aggies can rebound. However, their overall offensive stats are 68 PPG, 32% 3-pointers, and 65.6% FTs. On "D" , they just give up tons of points and are very vulnerable vs. teams that can shoot from beyond the arc. The Billikens are 4-0 ATS their L4 non-Conference games, 6-1 ATS their L7 games played on neutral sites, and 20-6 ATS their L26 games played overall. Take St. Louis.
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Virginia Commonwealth -7.5FFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Akron will have a tough time dealing with VCU's defensive pressure without Alex Abreu (PG), who is out indefinitely due to a violation of team rules. He is by far the best ball handler on the team, as evidenced by his 173 assists compared to 85 turnovers. That's a solid 2:1 ratio. Akron was one-and-done in the NIT last season while VCU defeated Wichita State in its opening NCAA tournament game and then nearly shocked Indiana. The Rams have won six games in the Big Dance the last two seasons so they clearly have more big game experience. VCU has been money this time of year as it is on an 11-1 ATS run in NCAA tournament games. The Rams have seen Akron 4 times since 2008 and have won all 4 meetings. I expect them to continue their dominance of the Zips while picking up the cover in the process. Lay the points.
Dave Cokin
Missouri vs Colorado State
Pick: Colorado State
Two of the best rebounding teams in the country match up as Missouri tangles with Colorado State. The Rams are as experienced as it gets, and the goal for this team all season has been to get that long awaited NCAA win. I like this Rams team from a poise standpoint as well. Mizzou has pressure, thanks to what happened to them in last season's tournament, and when the Tigers leave home they simply are not very good. I give Eustachy a tactical advantage over Haith on the sidelines, and while this figures to be a tough game, I'm expecting Colorado State plus the points to produce the winning ticket.
Jeff Alexander
Harvard +11
Harvard isn't getting quite the respect it deserves here. The Ivy League champs bring back 3 starters from a team that played Vandy to a 9-point game in last year's NCAA tournament. The Crimson won at Cal, played Saint Mary's to a 1-point game on the road and played Memphis to a 10-point game on the road to cover the spread in each of those games. Those are all NCAA tournament teams. Harvard is 12-4 ATS in road/neutral court games versus non-conference foes over the last 2 seasons. The Crimson are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. The Lobos are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. New Mexico will have a tough time stretching this one out to double digits against a disciplined Harvard squad that shoots a high percentage and rarely takes a bad shot. Take the points.
Lee Earnest
Colorado State +3
This is basically a tossup game that could go either way and figures to go right down to the wire. Missouri has been a team that has underperformed pretty much all season. While they do have some key wins at home this season, they have been mediocre if that away from their home floor. Last season Missouri was bounced early in the tournament by a much smaller and less talented school than Colorado State. Missouri has lots of of talent on their roster and often times play a style of basketball that is fun to watch, however they have given away a lot of games that they probably should have won. Often times the deciding factor between a Missouri win and a Missouri loss has been the play of point guard Phil Pressey. Pressey can be spectacular at times, but he can also be flat out lousy at other times. Pressey is really the key to this game. When he plays under control and minimizes his mistakes, he can control the game and the Tigers can roll. When he is shooting poorly, taking bad shots and committing turnovers, Missouri has little chance.
Colorado State is a solid team that relies on taking high percentage shots and are absolute beats when it comes to rebounding. Colorado State's 6'10" Colton Iverson is one of the best all around players in the country and is severely underrated for a big man. Iverson has a chance to emerge in this tournament. Colorado State has been solid and were once ranked in the Top 25, thanks mostly to their lengthy home winning streak. Colorado State has not nearly been as dominant on the road, but with this being a neutral court game, I believe they o still have an advantage. Missouri has just been plain bad away from their home court. If Colorado can limit Missouri's second chance opportunities and disrupt the play of Pressey then I believe they have a chance to win this game outright. Take the points
VCU -7
Starting Akron Point Guard Alex Abreau was arrested this past weekend and this has been a detrimental blow to this team. Abreau is the Zips best all around player. While Akron was able to get by Ohio after news of his arrest, this is a completely different scenario and will going up against a VCU team who just like last year could be poised to make a deep run in this year tournament. As much as people may want to play down the issue of Abreau being out, the fact remains that this would be a completely different game with Abreau in the lineup. Akron is really going to struggle on the offensive side of the ball especially with the pressure defense that VCU brings. VCU is one of the nation’s best scoring teams and it is because of their ability to force turnovers.
The Rams like to create havoc with their pressure defense. If the game turns into a wild, reckless affair, as postseason games often do, VCU has a definite advantage. Akron will have trouble controlling the pace and maintaining its poise without their point guard in the mix. VCU should roll in this game.
Oregon +2.5
This is one game that has upset written all over it. I still am honestly in shock that the Oregon ?Ducks were slated as a 12 seed in this tournament. Maybe just because of that we are seeing the line-makers create some value there. The Ducks are playing better basketball with Dominic Artis back in the fold and did manage to win the Pac 12 tournament this year. Lets not forget that they were ranked as high as number 10 this season and had some big wins against key team both at home and away ( UNLV ). It kind of makes me wonder where they would have been seeded had Artis not been injured.
This game is being played in San Jose California which while it is not Oregon, is still closer to home to them than Oklahoma State. State has a good offensive team lead by Marcus Smart and I will bet that the Ducks will have trouble slowing him down, but what this game comes down to for me is the fact that Oregon is just the all around better team. Offensively, defensively, Oregon just matches up well with Oklahoma State. Arsalan Kazemi has been a double-double machine for Oregon and could be the difference maker in this game.
I believe that Oregon is seeded to low and that Oklahoma State is perhaps a seed or two too high. Oregon pulls the upset today, take the points.
Wichita State +4
This game features a team from a traditional "power conference" (Big East) against a one from a mid-major (Missouri Valley). Statistically however these team match up rather well together. I have not really been impressed with Pittsburgh's play at all this season. For playing in the Big East they have severely underperformed. They are a team that has no true stand out player, or one that can take a game over when needed and that has hurt them.
Both teams are strong inside teams, so you will likely see a back and forth battle in the paint. Both teams are also good rebounding teams so this should turn into a game about who really wants it more. I believe that is Wichita State. Whenever you match up a mid-major with a powerhouse you always see the smaller, lesser known school up their game on the big stage. Wichita State is not a team that anyone should sleep on. Forward Carl Hall can be an absolute difference maker in this game and if he gets hot, I believe State could potentially pull the upset.
Belmont +4
This is another game where I feel that an upset is here. Belmont is a team that shoots the 3 ball incredibly well and has the potential to be this year's "Cinderella" team. Ian Clark has been the heart and soul of this team and has carried them all the way to this tournament. Arizona was once ranked the #3 team in the country, something that I believe was sorely overrated and it's no secret that have have struggled lately. This is a game that no doubt Belmont will "get up for". Again this is a smaller mid major school with a chance to knock of a power house school who is reeling right now.
Arizona does not defend the 3 pointer very well which has been their Achilles Hell and which has also been a major strength for Belmont. A lot of the pressure is going to be on Wildcat point guard Mark Lyons. If he has a off game and continues to turn the ball over, Arizona could be making a quick exit out of this tournament. This game will be closer than the line suggests.
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Calgary vs. NashvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NashvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Preds are coming off a grueling road trip, playing five in a row away from home. They lost the last four of those games, and they now sit four points out of eighth in the Western Conference, and out of the playoff picture.
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They are likely happy to return home, where they have enjoyed far more success, and they face an opponent that appears to be tailor-made for a team that is badly in need of a win.
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The Calgary Flames come into Nashville with little hope remaining as far as the playoffs are concerned. After losing four of six, and seven straight on the road, Calgary sits level on points with last place Colorado in the Western Conference. The return of starting netminder Mikka Kiprusoff hasn't helped, as only two teams in the league have allowed more goals this year than Calgary. Kirprusoff has won his last two starts at home, allowing five goals combined in those games. He hasn't fared so well on the road though, allowing 10 goals in his last two starts away from home, losing both those games.
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Nashville has really struggled all year on the road, but they are a much better team at home. Pekka Rinne has a lot to do with their success, and while he's been lit up during this recent road trip, he's only allowed a single goal in his last two starts on home ice. Rinner leads the league with five shutouts already this season, and four of those have come in Nashville. I expect to see the veteran netminder on top of his game tonight, with his team playing solid defense in front of him.
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh/ Wichita State Under 119: Pittsburgh played allot of slow down grind it out games in the Big East and they relied more on their defense to win games and that will be the same game plan they will look to employ in this one. Pittsburgh is 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they allow just 55.4 ppg overall, including 58.6 ppg away from home. The Panthers also rank 32nd in effective FG% defense and 51st in 3pt defense. This is an all around good defensive squad. The Shockers can also play some defense as they are 31st in the nation in defensive efficiency and they allow just 60.7 ppg on the year. The Shockers also rank 69th in effective FG% defense. Both teams plays at a slow pace and neither is good from the FT line. With two strong defenses on the court, in a slow down game, this one will have much more defense than offense.
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St Louis -9.5 over New Mexico State: St Louis has the feel of a team that could make a deep run in the tournament and I do not feel that the Aggies have what it takes to stand in their way in this one. St Louis was a mediocre 3-3 when Rick Majerus passed away, but since then they have gone 24-3, winning both the A-10 regular season and the A-10 Tournament. The Billikens have also played well away from home, going 10-4 in all those games. St Louis beat Butler and VCU in back to back a-10 Tourney games and hat is much more impressive than the Aggies 3 wins vs Idaho, Texas State and Texas Arlington in their conference tourney. Yes the Aggies have won 18 of their last 20 games, but they also played a weaker schedule than St Louis and other than Denver they haven't really played a team with a defense this good. That St Louis defense is on fire right now as they have allowed 58 points or less in their last 6 non-OT games and that gives them a huge edge over an Aggie squad that has allowed 69.1 ppg away from home. Look for St Louis to continue to roll as they take this one by 13+, behind another stellar defensive effort.
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More later
Brett Atkins
My free pick for Thursday's early action is on the Valparaiso Crusaders, who come in after an impressive run in the Horizon League, to take on the Michigan State Spartans.
Valparaiso (26-7, 13-3 Horizon) will be making its first appearance in the tournament since 2004, and as the 14th seed in the Midwest Region, I think it's a bit underrated in this region and in this game.
The Crusaders are here thanks to an exhilirating 62-54 victory over Wright State in the Horizon League tournament championship back on March 12. Led by the play of fifth-year senior and tournament MVP Erik Buggs, the Crusaders simply weren't going to be denied. Anyone who watched the game, knows the will and determination of this team.
Much of this team's motivation can be attributed to second-year coach Bryce Drew (48-19), who led the Crusaders to a school-record 26 wins this season, as well as two Horizon League regular season titles and one tournament championship. He's instilled a level of confidence in this team, and I don't care who they're going against, you're going to see the Crusaders scrap to the end.
Michigan State (25-8, 13-5 Big Ten) comes in mired in ATS slides of 1-4 in large dance games, 1-5 in non-conference contests and on neutral courts and 2-6 overall. On the flipside, Valpo is in on ATS win streaks of 7-1 after an ATS loss and 4-1 in non-conference games.
Take the pup in this one.
1♦ VALPARAISO