Brad Wilton
My Thursday free play will be for Missouri to take care of Colorado State in their meeting at the Rupp Arena.
Last year in the Big Dance, Mizzou came in as a 21 point favorite against Norfolk State and lost OUTRIGHT! You know damn well that the Tigers do not want to suffer another loss in their opening round this season, so expect a focused effort this time around.
Missouri did play on this court in conference play this year, so they have some familiarity with the arena, falling in overtime to Kentucky earlier in the season.
Colorado State did go just 4-4 straight up down the stretch, and point guard Dorian Green is still not at 100% since spraining his ankle on March 9th.
That being the case, I will side with Missouri as the small favorite to edge Colorado State for both the win and the cover.
2♦ MISSOURI
Jeff Benton
Thursday's freebie is Bucknell plus the points against Butler.
The Bison has a solid resume coming into this game at Rupp Arena, as they have beaten Purdue out of the Big 10, and have also recorded victories against tournament teams La Salle (and you saw what they did last night!), and New Mexico State.
Butler is a "good" team, but they are not in the league of previous Brad Stevens' editions, and watching leading scorer Rotnei Clarke fire it up at will (and miss plenty by the way!), scares me when it comes to laying points with these Bulldogs.
Last year Patriot League rep Lehigh took down Duke in their opening game, I see no reason why Bucknell can't do the same today versus Butler.
Take the points and the Bison.
2♦ BUTLER
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the OVER in the Arizona/Belmont game.
The total in five of the last seven Arizona games has gone under the total, so why am I giving you the OVER in this first round matchup?
Becauase I know the Wildcats are loaded with offensive talent, they don't play much defense, and Belmont is built much like them. The Ohio Valley champions average just under 80 points per game in a league that tries to play defense. Unfortunately for many of their opponents, it didn't work out like planned.
Belmont is actually ranked in the RPI higher than most people expect, but that's because they score so many points and average a lot of blowouts. Even when they stepped out of conference for a "bracket buster" game back in late February, they impressed the heck out of me.
In fact, that's when I first really took notice of them. They beat a solid Ohio team by double digits and the game was never really close. And this was an Ohio team that advanced to the third round of the Big Dance last year.
Belmont is loaded with three-point shooters and guys who aren't afraid to take the ball to the rim and draw a foul. There's no better way to score cheap points and achieve "overs" than when the clock is stopped and points are being scored.
True, Arizona does have some advantages in this game, but none of them are on the defensive side of the ball. Everything is offensive related and when all is said and done, that's all I care about. Arizona might win, but Belmont will score a boatload of points and make it close.
Take the OVER 140 in the Arizona/Belmont matchup as your free play of the day.
2♦ BELMONT-ARIZONA OVER
Scott Delaney
Now let's get to my free pick for Thursday, as I am playing the Belmont Bruins plus the points against Arizona Wildcats.
The Bruins are in after defeating Murray State, 70-68, in overtime for the Ohio Valley Conference Championship, as senior Kerron Johnson tied the game with nine seconds to go in regulation, then won the game with 1.2 seconds left in overtime.
Now the Bruins, who claimed a fourth straight regular season conference championship - the previous three coming in the Atlantic Sun Conference - take aim against the Wildcats, who couldn't get past top-seeded UCLA in the Pac 12 tournament last week in Las Vegas.
Belmont not only went undefeated at home this season, it also boasts 13 victories away from home, ranking among the nation's best road teams.
What I like about this team - which is always important this time of the season - is Belmont returns a veteran backcourt. Ian Clark and Johnson were each named All-OVC, and get this, they're part of a team that returned 11 letterwinners from a team that went 27-8 a year ago.
I like the experience in this team and think Arizona will have its hands full in this game.
3♦ BELMONT
Chris Jordan
So here is the rematch the Cal Golden Bears have been waiting for, but trust me when I tell you there is something about the Runnin' Rebels looking to avenge last Saturday's debacle at the Thomas and Mack, against New Mexico in the conference championship.
I expect some big things from the Rebels' two freshman - Katin Reinhardt and Anthony Bennett - on the offensive end. Of course, the 6-foot-8 Bennett has been leading the Rebs all season, so that's no surprise. But Reinhardt has a lot to atone for after following his career game in the semis, with a dismal showing in the title game.
Now against a Cal team the Runnin' Rebels have already defeated this season, I think we're going to see UNLV come out firing and pushing the tempo with senior Anthony Marshall running the floor, and sophomore Khem Birch filling up space in the paint. Mike Moser should do work for the Rebs off the bench, as he'll be looking for a little revenge. See, the Cal game was when he suffered a dislocated elbow and saw the rest of his season sort plotz along.
On paper, I honestly thought I'd see Cal being the better team, but after looking at this one in depth, the Runnin' Rebels are the right side of this game.
Lay the chalk.
3♦ UNLV
Will Rogers
Vancouver vs. Phoenix
Pick: Vancouver
The Coyotes haven't had much luck finding the back of the net lately, and I don't see that changing tonight when the Vancouver Canucks pay a visit. Phoenix is off an 0-3-1 road swing, and while the have beaten the Canucks three straight times dating back to last season, the trip was so poor that I don't see that particular streak continuing. Vancouver has some momentum coming off a 3-2 win over St. Louis Tuesday night.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Offensive woes - After being shutout in a franchise record three consecutive games, the Coyotes finally tallied a pair of goals in the third period Tuesday in Los Angeles. But it wasn't enough as they fell to the Kings 3-2. All told, Phoenix went 245 minutes, 32 seconds without finding the back of the net. Just not what you're looking for and I feel its going to take some time until they get back on track.
2. Revenge - Though the Coyotes have beaten Vancouver three straight, the Canucks have earned themselves at least a point the last six games in this series. Still, they will be hungry to avenge a 4-2 home loss last month. Over the last two seasons, Vancouver is 17-4 in road games when they are playing with revenge.
3. X-Factor - While Vancouver goalie Roberto Luongo has struggled a bit of late, he has a 1.47 GAA, including a shutout, his last two starts here in Phoenix.
Freddy Wills
Southern +23
I think we have some value in this play despite Southern coming from a bad conference they still were 2nd nationally in 2 point defense and 12th nationally in 3 point defense. 23 points is a lot and I think many may be looking at their match up from 2010 which featured a completely different Southern team ranked 300th in 2 point defense. They are also top 25 in turnovers/possession so it will be hard for Gonzaga to score a ton of points if they can't get out in transition. I could see this being a Gonzaga win by 10-15 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +145 over WINNIPEG
Regulation only. The Winnipeg Jets are attracting a lot of attention these days. The Jets are coming off an impressive 3-1 win over the Bruins in a game not many gave them a chance in. Winnipeg has now won four of its past five games to shoot to the top of the Southwest Division. We often suggest that the best time to jump off a team is when everyone jumps on and that applies here. Give the Jets credit for being a tough out and exceeding expectations but they are overpriced here.
Washington went into Pittsburgh on Tuesday against the red-hot Penguins and gave Pittsburgh one of its toughest games of the year in a 2-1 Pittsburgh win. Since their awful start, the Caps have won 10 of its past 18 games and one of those included a 3-0 win over these same Jets back in Washington on February 2. In one less game than Winnipeg, Washington has scored one less goal than the Jets, while allowing one more goal and its power-play and penalty kill both rank higher than Winnipeg’s. The Caps don’t have any significant injuries, they have an edge in net, they’re taking fewer penalties than the Jets and in what is really about as even a contest as you will find, taking back 45 cents here on this visitor offers up as much value as any game on today’s board.
CAROLINA/New Jersey over 5 -130
OT included. Martin Brodeur returns from injury after missing a month and the total is set at 5? Brodeur is a 41-year-old goaltender, past his best years, who doesn’t figure to be sharp when playing just his 14th game in the past 10 months. The goaltending situation in Raleigh isn’t much better with Dan Ellis and/or Justin Peters filling in for Cam Ward. Without its #1 goaltender, the Hurricanes have lost four straight, including a 4-1 loss to the dreadful Panthers in their last game.
In addition, Carolina is without shutdown defender Justin Faulk. They are also missing defenseman Joe Corvo. Those are the Hurricanes’ best two defensemen. When these two hooked up back on February 19, also in Carolina, the ‘Canes won 6-3. With shaky goaltending, shaky defense and plenty of offense on both sides, these two are now being asked to score five less goals than the first meeting to keep this one under today’s total. In six of the last seven meetings between these two clubs, the winning team has scored four goals or more. We don’t often play totals. We back away even more when asked to spot a price when doing so. However, this one is wrongly set and even at -130, we’re confident we found one of the more beatable numbers of the season.
PHOENIX +103 over Vancouver
Regulation only. The Canucks broke out of their funk with a 3-2 win over the Blues on Tuesday night. That was on paper. On the ice, it was the same old thing as the Canucks were badly outplayed getting outshot 15-3 in the first period and 34-19 for the game. That wasn’t a well earned win by the Canucks, it was a game stolen by goaltender Cory Schneider. It was the Canucks second regulation win over its past eight games with the other one being a 7-4 win over the Predators in a game they were outshot 33-22. Vancouver has one road win since February 22, a 2-1 OT victory in Columbus. The Canucks have scored 11 goals on the road over its past six games. Vancouver’s reputation has them wrongly favored on the road here. It’s also worth noting that the Canucks have the Kings on deck tomorrow in Los Angeles.
The Coyotes have dropped four straight, all on the road. For Phoenix, losses only make them work harder. On Tuesday in Los Angeles, Phoenix outshot the Kings 42-29 but lost 3-2. Phoenix now returns home, where they have won two straight (defeating L.A. and Dallas) and four of its last five with the other two victories both coming against Anaheim. A closer look reveals the Coyotes having played the Kings three times, the Blue Notes twice, Anaheim twice and Minnesota once in eight of their past 11 games. That’s a tough slate of games that should serve them well against weaker clubs like the one they will face here. Vancouver is not the strong team they’ve been over the past decade. Games like this will prove that even further.
Wunderdog
Missouri vs. Colorado State
Pick: Colorado State +2.5
It has been quite a ride for the Colorado State Rams this season as they won 25 games. It wasn't just 25 games, it was 25 games in what was to turned out to be the highest rated conference in terms of Conference RPI. Missouri was 12-2 through 14 games, but struggled as the competition got better and closed at 11-7. The Tigers played well under the line at 7-11 ATS, while Colorado State, despite being from a mid-major, played a stronger schedule. The Tigers are getting tamed by winning teams at just 4-10 ATS in their last 14, while the Rams own a 5-1 ATS mark in their last six vs. the SEC. Play on Colorado State.
Harry Bondi
ST LOUIS (-9.5) over New Mexico State
Wait until New Mexico State sees the defense pressure Saint Louis will bring today. Aggies have been red-hot down the stretch and 7 ft freshman Sim Bhullar is a handful but the Billikens enter the tournament playing as well as any team in the country and have gone 24-3 straight up and an amazing 20-7 against the spread since Head Coach Rick Majerus passed away in December. This is a veteran St Louis squad that has a balanced motion offense and a disciplined pressure defense that will suffocate New Mexico State. It's a first round blowout for the Billikens today.
NHL Predictions
Carolina Hurricanes -115
The New Jersey Devils sit 3rd in the Atlantic division with their 13-11-6 record. They have won just 4 of their 14 road games this season going 4-6-4 on the year. The Hurricanes are 15-12-2 on the year and 7-7 at home. Neither team is coming in here hot, as New Jersey has dropped 3 straight games and Carolina has lost 4 straight. Before losing 4 straight the Hurricanes had won 6 of 7. New Jersey has won just 3 games in their last 13 overall. The Devils are also winless in their last 6 road games. They are getting Martin Brodeur back between the pipes tonight, but I'm not sure that will be enough to get this team going. The Hurricanes are expected to have Dan Ellis in net who is 4-4-1 with a 2.51 GAA and .925 SV%. These two teams have met twice this year with Carolina winning 4-2 in New Jersey and then 6-3 at home on March 9th. The Hurricanes are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Carolina with New Jersey. The Devils have really been struggling to win games, and I like Carolina to take advantage tonight at home with a big win at a great price.
Hollywood Sports
Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers (31-36) looks to rebound from a 102-95 loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday -- but they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Portland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record, the Trail Blazers are a decisive 18-7-3 ATS. Chicago (36-30) has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against an opponent that allowed at least 100 points in their last game. The Bulls look to rebound from a 119-118 loss themselves to Denver on Tuesday. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in a disappointing 23 of their last 33 games on their home court. And in their last 32 meetings with a Western Conference foe, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these contests. Take the points with Portland.
Andre Gomes
Minnesota Timberwolves +6
Projected Line: Sacramento by 2 points
I actually believe Minnesota has a great chance of winning this game outright. First of all, I believe that due to Sacramento's mindset for this contest. They are coming from a mega win at home against the Clippers, where they were close to double digit dogs. But how are the Kings faring as home favorites after winning a game? Not well by being 1-4 ATS this season! More than that, Minnesota's offense will have some great edges in here. The Wolves have four guards running the offense and naturally their offense is super heavy on pick and roll ball handler plays and since the All Star break, 20% of their offensive plays have been pick and roll ball handler plays (#1 in the league in volume of this kind of play). Thanks to the speed that they have due to the fact that they use an undersized lineup, they are also having a considerable volume of transitions, besides the typical spot up plays. This means that pick and rolls + transitions + spot ups are currently representing something like 70% of Minnesota's offense right now. But how does Sacramento defend on these areas? Well, terribly! The Kings are the worst pick and roll ball handler defense in the league, while they are #28 in the league on transition defense. Therefore, the Wolves should be able to have a great offensive game tonight.
On the other side, it's true that Minnesota's defense has their limitations. However, Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko are back and they help the team improving on defense big time. But what I like on the Wolves's defense for this contest is their ability to force turnovers. Minnesota's defensive pressure on the opposing ball handler is excellent, especially Ricky Rubio who has been amazing on this area lately. Sacramento's guards don't take care of the ball well and so, the Wolves have the perfect opponent in here to force turnovers and completely ruin Sacramento's offensive flow on this contest. I believe Sacramento will overlook Minnesota tonight and with the Wolves exploring the Kings's poor defense, I expect Minnesota to be super competitive today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Timberwolves in here.
Joe Gavazzi
Harvard +11½
In this game, followers of my analysis know that I believe the Lobos will be playing a lot of basketball between now and early April. HC Alford has molded a team that is far more than its individual parts. Kirk is an underrated big man, while Bairstow does all the dirty work inside. On the perimeter, they have Snell and Williams, who can both shoot outside and drive to the basket. Greenwood is the perfect complement to their talents. Their shot selection is impeccable as is their defensive positioning, especially in defending ball screens. This team can go a long way. They were at their best in the most recently completed MWC CCT victory in Vegas, where they beat Wyoming, 59-46, San Diego St, 60-50 and host UNLV, 63-56. That’s 51 PPG defense against solid competition. In Alford’s career, he is a mind boggling 39-14 ATS when allowing his previous two opponents to score 65 or fewer points. Yet the preference here is for Ivy rep Harvard, who was our top of the ticket Ivy League GOY in their matchup with Princeton in late February. Graduation and withdrawal losses severely depleted Amaker’s crew, but the Crimson reloaded and barely skipped a beat in repeating as Brain Chain champs. Amaker discovered a lead guard in Siyani Chambers to control the offense and dish to big guards Revard and Webster. The work of Saunders on the interior was complemented by emerging freshman Kenyatta Smith and Moundo-Missi. Hardened by games at the 94 foot pressure of UMass, St Joe’s, BC, UConn, Cal, St Mary’s and Memphis, against whom they went 6-1 ATS, they will not be awed by the Lobos or this venue, where altitude favors New Mexico. Clearly Amaker is in his best in this role, and with the Lobos having this game sandwiched between their CCT victory and higher profile games ahead, Harvard could clearly waltz in under this number.