Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday March, 22

Hollywood Sports

Florida at Marquette
Play: Marquette

Florida (25-10) has raced through the first two games of the NCAA Tournament by outscoring a slumping Virginia team and then an overmatched Cinderella in Norfolk State by a combined 155-95 margin. But the Gators now face a significant raise in their level of competition against a Marquette team that was second in the uber-competitive Big East with their 14-4 record and their net Efficiency Margin of +0.09 Points-Per-Possession (Offensive PPP: 1.07; Defensive PPP: 0.98) against conference opponents. This is not as strong a defensive team for Billy Donovan as the club that lost to Butler in the Elite Eight last season. While that team held their SEC opponents to just a 1.00 scoring rate, this year's Gators allowed their conference opponents score at a 1.04 PPP rate which was uncharacteristically 8th in the SEC for a Donovan-coached team. Marquette (27-7) may very well be the best scoring team in transition in the country with their two superstar seniors in 6'6" Jae Crowder and 6'2" Darius Johnson-Odum. What has made the difference for Buzz Williams' team is the dramatic improvement in their play on the defensive end of the court this season. The Golden Eagles' Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 89.5 is the 16th stingiest metric in the nation. Florida has shot a whopping 61% inside the arc in their last four games -- but Marquette has held their first two NCAA Tournament opponents to a mere 38.0% shooting percentage with their 2-pointers. This should be a close game that the Golden Eagles pull away from -- just like they did against Murray State where their 13-5 run to close the game iced their 62-53 win (and point spread cover after laying 5 points). The star quality of seniors Crowder and Johnson-Odum may be the difference here. Or perhaps the difference will be Marquette's ability to get to the free throw line and generate easy baskets. The Golden Eagles led the Big East with their 40.8 free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. In contrast, the Gators only had a 32.5 FTA/FGA ratio which was 9th in SEC play. Not surprisingly, Marquette has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as a small favorite of under 7 points. The Golden Eagles have managed to grind out point spread wins in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And Williams has seen his teams cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. Look for Marquette to eventually pull away from the Gators. Lay the points.

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets host the Clippers in a tiring situation for the visitors who be playing their 3rd game in 3 straight days tonight. Not only does New Orleans enter off games at Oklahoma City last night and at Indiana Tuesday evening, they take the floor knowing they are 1-15 SU and ATS the last 16 games in this series. With too many hurdles for Los Angeles to overcome, we'll fade the Clippers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on New Orleans.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Memphis @ Portland
PICK: Portland

Memphis is 25-19 (9-12 on the road). Portland is 21-25 (14-8 at home). The last time these team's played against each other, the Blazers won 97-84 in Portland on January 24th, 2012.

The Grizzlies lost 119-100 at Sacramento on Tuesday. Rudy Gay had 23-points and six-rebounds. Marc Gasol chipped in 15-points, 10-rebounds and eight-assists. “I don’t want to talk about any individual person. All I want to talk about is that we got our butts kicked because we did not play hard and did not play together,” coach Lionel Hollins said.

The Blazers have lost two-straight, including an embarrassing 116-87 setback to Milwaukee in front of the home town crowd on Tuesday. LaMarcus Aldridge had 21-points and 12-rebounds. It was the team's worst margin of defeat since 2009. Portland has gone through some changes over the last two weeks, firing Nate McMillan as head coach, and trading Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby. “We got to play with more effort,” Aldridge said. “We got back-doored like four or five times. We’ve got to fight through screens, our bigs have to be up on the screens. I feel like we didn’t do that tonight. We just worried about trying to outscore them. Our defense wasn’t there.”

Off back to back disappointing efforts, and with a game in LA vs. the Lakers tomorrow night, I'm riding the home side in this situation.

You may want to consider a second look at the Portland Trail Blazers this evening!

David Chan

Predators @ Penguins
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to stay below the posted number.

The Predators are 42-23-8 and are coming off a lacklustre 6-3 setback vs. Edmonton on Tuesday. Pekka Rinne was replaced in goal 28 seconds into the second period after letting in three goals on seven shots; Anders Lindback then replaced him and he stopped 10 of 12 shots.

David Legwand had two goals; Patric Hornqvist also scored.

The Pens are coming off an 8-4 destruction of Winnipeg on Tuesday.

Sidney Crosby had four assists; James Neal had a hat trick; Evgeni Malkin chipped in two-goals, and had three-assists.

“There were some nice hockey plays out there,” coach Dan Bylsma said. “There’s some of that tape you see in some highlight videos.”

It was a pretty pathetic effort from the Predators, who continue to jockey for a better playoff position. With four divisional games to end the month, this team needs to start building momentum, and no matter who the opponent is, can't have another letdown like it did vs. the lowly Oilers; I believe we can expect Nashville to come out and play with an extreme sense of urgency, especially on the defensive end vs. this explosive Pens side.

Pittsburgh has won 12 of 13. Four of its last five games have soared "over" the posted number.

While I won't bet against the Pens here, I simply feel this could be a bit of a "trap" game for them. They've played seven straight games vs. the Eastern conference, going 6-1 in that span.

After tonight's game vs. the Western Conference Preds, Pittsburgh closes the month with five straight games vs. Eastern conference teams.

This sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the Pens. Like I said above, I won't bet against Pittsburgh, but believe it will be in for a real dog fight against this highly motivated Nashville team.

All signs point to a hard-fought, low-scoring affair!

Tony Karpinski

Wisconsin vs. Syracuse
Play: Under 120½

Wisconsin will slow the tempo and melt the shotclock. They also do not turn the ball over. Jared Berggren will clog the middle and limit Syracuse and their chances. This will be a controlled game by both teams and a very low scoring game.

Jim Feist

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets
Pick: Houston Rockets

A tough situational spot for Golden State, working in new personnel after the trade last week, plus playing the second of a back to back road spot, at New Orleans last night. Houston is rested and motivated, fighting for the No. 8 (and last) playoff seed. The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, on a 4-1 ATS run and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 vs. the NBA Pacific. Play the Houston Rockets.

Craig Trapp

Florida vs. Marquette
Play: Marquette -2

Still not a believer in the Gators as they beat two teams that did not match up with their up tempo style. Problem for Gators is no team plays fast better than Marquette. Only weakness for Marquette is sometimes they turn the ball over in bunches but Florida is not a high pressure team so think it won't be issue on Thursday.

Rob Vinciletti

Louisville vs. Michigan St
Play: Under 125

Louisville shows several Under angles in this one. They have gone under in 10 of 13 in neutral court games, 14 of 17 the past few years in March and 11 of 12 vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game. In games after allowing 60 or less they have gone under in 7 of the last 10. Michigan St has stayed under in 4 of 5 as a neutral court favorite and 9 of 13 this season when the total is 120 to 130. In the only 2 meetings between these two both games played under the total. Look for this one to go under as well.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati vs Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State

Very nice run by Cincinnati getting to the Big East title game and now claiming a spot in the Sweet 16. But this should be the finish line for the Bearcats. Ohio State is better defensively and vastly more efficient on offense. I expect a double digit win by the Buckeyes.

Free NBA Release for 3/22: Milwaukee Bucks -3 (-105 5DIMES) over the Boston Celtics. Milwaukee should have this game highlighted, circled, and underline on their schedule. They've lost four straight to the Celtics, including a 102-96 defeat in Boston three weeks ago. Alot has changed since then. Milwaukee has won six straight by average margin of 13 points/game, and they've cashed in eight straight times at the window. While the quality of the opponents haven't been particularly strong in this streak, note that four of those six games we're on the road. The Bucks also became very active just before the trade deadline, acquiring one of the top scorers in the league from the Golden State Warriors, in G Monta Ellis. Ellis hasn't shined yet in his two game so far with his new club. But his presence on the team could make Milwaukee one of the most balanced attacks in the NBA, as evident in their most recent outting in Portland where six players scored double-digit figures. Now the Bucks return home with thier newly acquired high-flying point guard, a six game winning streak, and some serious revenge on their minds...we're suspecting there will be a lively crowd and a little home-court advantage tonight at the Bradley Center. Boston is 24-21 on the year, but they're still just 8-13 on the road. They are coming off an upset win in Atlanta, but they're also looking ahead to a big show-down tomorrow night with the 76ers in Philadelphia (where they will be looking for a little revenge themselves from a blowout loss a month ago). Overall, Milwaukee outscores, outrebounds, and outperforms Boston from the bench. And even though they've lost four straight to Celtics, they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five games of this series. Boston is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. And coming off an road ATS win, we like the odds of them not making it two straight. Milwaukee is coming off a day of rest, and they are a perfect 6-0 at the window in their last six such situations. They're also 4-0 ATS in their last four at home. Bet the Milwaukee Bucks -3 Thursday Night.

Our Free Play Record is now 186-102-1 all-time. Sign up today to get the best free NBA picks via email.

SPORTS WAGERS

Wisconsin +3½/+153 over Syracuse

We’re going to split this up and play the Badgers on both the money line and point-spread. The Orangemen are obviously a good team but the loss of Fab Melo was felt against UNC-Ashville and against this strong defensive unit, Melo’s absence will be felt again. Historically, a #1 seed frequently gets knocked out in this round and the Orange are a vulnerable #1 seed. After falling out of the top 50 in defensive efficiency in 2011 for the first time in five years, Wisconsin is back to its stingy ways. The Badgers allow fewer than 86 points per 100 possessions and there won't be anywhere near that many possessions against Syracuse. The Badgers effectively take away space and that’s not good news for the likes of Dion Waiters and Scoop Jardine. Offensively, Wisconsin should be comfortable in the long possessions necessary to attack Jim Boeheim's zone. The Badgers simply don't turn it over or allow easy baskets. Wisconsin is a major-conference team that has heated up at the right time and they’ve proven over and over again this season that they can compete with anyone. Play: Wisconsin +3½ (Risking 2.06 units to win). Play: Wisconsin +153 (Risking 2 units).

Louisville +5 over Michigan State

A quality college basketball team that gets on a roll is a tough out. Louisville is on the exact same run that last year’s champion Huskies went on. At this time last year, UConn reached the Sweet 16 by reeling off six wins in a row, which included a Big East championship. That’s precisely where the Cardinals are now. The best part is that we’re being offered some significant points when you consider the low total of 125. The Billikens gave the Spartans a real scare because of their tenacious defense and things don’t get easier against the Cardinals. In its last nine games, Louisville has held the opposition to 56 points or less seven times. We also can’t ignore that Louisville head coach, Rick Pitino is 9-0 when reaching the Sweet-16. The Spartans rely heavily on Draymond Green. After him, production drops off significantly from his 16 a game down to Keith Appling’s 11 and Brandon Wood’s 8½. MSU does not have the offense to run away from clubs that play great defense and the result should be a contest that comes down to the final possessions. The points offered are too sweet to pass up on in a very even match-up. Play: Louisville +5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Marquette -2 over Florida

By seed, Florida (#7) is actually the weakest remaining team in the West Region. Its scores are impressive but we have to recognize that Virginia entered the tournament depleted and as anything but a dangerous opponent and a third-round game against Norfolk State was something that most would never have predicted. But now the Gators step up in class. Florida lost six of its last 10 games, which included losses to Tennessee and Georgia. They lost twice to Tennessee this season, they were blown out by Kentucky twice (by 15 and 20 points) and they lost at Rutgers. They are getting far too much respect here. So, while the Gators were beating Virginia and Norfolk State, the Golden Eagles took care of business in impressive fashion against upset-minded BYU and Murray State. Marquette went 14-4 in the tough Big East and 27-7 overall. Florida will be severely tested, unlike its previous two games to get here. The Golden Eagles are one of the best transition teams in the land. They run opponents to death. In the half court, Marquette stresses paint touches, as they either get to the lane and score or kick it out for good look 3-pointers. The Eagles have two go-to-guys (Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder) coupled with very good guards and that’s always been a recipe for success in this event. Gators get a reality check. Play: Marquette -2 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Jack Jones

Golden State Warriors +8

The Golden State Warriors have been undervalued since trading away Monte Ellis to Milwaukee. It was the right move for this team as they were so deep at the guard positions. They are still a solid squad going forward with plenty of talent to compete.

The Warriors should not be an 8-point underdog tonight to the Houston Rockets. They were somehow a 2-point dog at New Orleans last night, and won that game 101-92. While this team had lost four straight before that game, three of those losses were by 7 points or less. In fact, the Warriors have now lost only one of their last eight games by more than 7 points.

Houston is a solid team, but after a huge win over the Lakers last time out, they certainly could be in for a letdown here. Plus, they're not a team that is accustomed to blowouts, which is what it would take to cover this inflated spread. In fact, Houston has just one win in their last 15 games by more than 6 points.

This play falls into a system that is 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - off a road win, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Bet Golden State Thursday.

John Ryan

Cincinnati vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -7

10* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Cincinnati in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Championship. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio State will win this game by 10 or more points. Ohio State has significant advantages in nearly all of the game matchups at both ends of the court. The sim shows high probabilities that Cincinnati will get severely outrebounded in this game by 10 or more boards; that OSU will attempt between 54 and 62 shots; that OSU will make 47 to 53% of their shot attempts, will make between 31 and 37% of their three-point shot attempts; will force Cincy into 10 to 13 turnovers, will have in excess of 45 rebounds. In past games here are the results under these projections. Cincy is 8-19 ATS in road games when they grab 10+ fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997; Ohio State is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 96-52 ATS (+38.8 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game this season; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they grab more than 45 rebounds in a game since 1997; 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) when they grab 10+ more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. Take Ohio State.

SPORTS WAGERS

SACRAMENTO -1½ over Utah

The marketplace continues to give the Jazz too much credit on the road and not enough credit to the Kings at home. Make no mistake, Sacramento is as difficult a venue for middle of the pack teams to visit and depart with a victory in hand. The Kings are 13-9 at home with three straight wins over Boston, Minnesota and Memphis. They’re healthy, they’re improving and they have five players capable of going off for 20 or more. The Jazz have six wins in 22 road games. They’re an up and coming team also but have yet to learn how to win away from Salt Lake. Furthermore, the Jazz are coming off two huge wins in a row over the Lakers and Oklahoma City. Utah will come into this game feeling very satisfied and as a result, a letdown is a distinct possibility. Play: Sacramento -1½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).