SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +100 over TAMPA BAY
When you have the weakest goaltenders in the league and they continue to give up soft goals, it takes the steam out of the entire team. We’ve seen examples of that this year with the Maple Leafs and even with the Blackhawks when they lost nine straight. Tampa has dropped six of seven with only win over that stretch coming against the Bruins when they scored four goals on its first 12 shots against Marty Turco. They’ve lost four games to the Maple Leafs this season and were trounced 7-3 in its last game against the Sabres. Dwayne Roloson gets the call again because the Lightning have nowhere else to turn. The Bolts are nine points out of a playoff spot with eight games remaining. In other words, they’re finished. The Oilers were finished long ago. But what they bring is an exciting brand of hockey with plenty of optimism for the future. The coaching staff is stressing hard work in an attempt to show them what they’re capable of for next year. The Oilers have picked up points in four straight with three wins and one OT loss. They’re coming off a confidence boosting 6-3 win in Nashville. The Oilers are not just playing out the string while we can’t say the same about the Bolts. Play: Edmonton +100 (Risking 2 units).
MINNESOTA +110 over Calgary
It’s hard to believe that as late as December, the Wild were in first place overall in the Western Conference. Then misery struck that saw the Wild plummet down through the standings into 13th place, where they now sit, 14 points out of a playoff spot and golf clubs in hand. Misery loves company and now the Wild get to play the fun role of spoiler as Calgary sits two points out of a playoff spot. A loss here by the Flames and the hole they’ve dug themselves becomes much larger. The Flames have dropped three in a row to Edmonton, Columbus and Colorado. In those three critical games, they managed to score just three times. The Flames are choking under the pressure of this playoff drive and now they’ll have to face a freewheeling team that has nothing to lose . The Wild are coming off a 2-0 win over the Canucks. That snapped a three-game losing streak but the real motivation here for the Wild is preventing this hated division rival from making the playoffs. Play: Minnesota +110 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO +110 over Phoenix
The Avs have amassed 11 of a possible 12 points in their last six games and they snapped a frustrating nine-game losing streak to Calgary in Tuesday's triumph. Colorado is not panicking and playing tight like the other four teams vying for the final two playoff spots, but rather a group that feels like it is the team to beat. The last time the Avs played the Coyotes at Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix won 6-1 on Jan. 16. Much has changed since. Young goalie Semyon Varlamov, who took the loss that day, has become one of the hottest netminders in the NHL. Colorado is tougher and more skilled up front with the recent additions of forwards Steve Downie, Jamie McGinn and rookie Mark Olver. The Coyotes are one of those aforementioned four teams that can’t afford to lose. They are tied with L.A. for that final playoff spot but have played one more game. However, they lost their captain and third leading scorer Shane Doan to a three-game suspension. They’re also likely to be without their second leading scorer, Radim Vrbata and that leaves 40-year-old Ray Whitney to carry the team. The Avalanche are simply the better team, in better form while the Coyotes are a hard-working bunch of castoffs that are severely handicapped for this contest. Play: Colorado +1010 (Risking 2 units).
JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie is the Michigan State Spartans to advance to the round of eight with a win and cover over Lousville in Phoenix this Thursday night.
Michigan State has a bit of karma on their side, as the last 3 times they were seeded #1 in the big dance (1999, 2000, and 2001), the Spartans advanced all the way to the final four.
Louisville is rolling - six straight wins and covers - but after watching them just bog down in their near 15-point blown lead against New Mexico in the last round, I am not so sure the Redbirds can be trusted to deliver enough consistent offense to combat all-everything Draymond Green of the Spartans.
Michigan State was on top of the impost in their game against St. Louis, but they failed to cover the number, as the Billikins were able to hit just enough three-pointers to get them inside of the number. That being said, Michigan State still owns a 19-7-1 spread mark their last 27 tournament games when favored, and they did dump Louisville in 2009 in the Elite Eight, beating the Cards by a dozen as the 6 1/2-point favorite.
Just call it deja-vu all over again, as Michigan State once again takes care of Louisville.
2♦ MICHIGAN STATE
DEREK MANCINI
Now SIX straight Free Play winners, incl. the Thunder blasting the Clippers 114-91 last night! For tonight's Freebie, I'm laying it with the Rockets over the Warriors. Two teams that have struggled with inconsistent play of late, but at this point I'm a hell of a lot more willing to trust Houston than Golden State. They're at home and coming off an impressive, confidence-boosting win over the Lakers Tuesday.
Moreover, the line tells us everything we need to know about this match up. Why in the hell are the Rockets favored by so much here? It's as if the guys in Vegas are begging us to take Golden State! With Lowry and Martin both listed as questionable, the Rockets have some serious question marks going into this match up without (the possible) services of their starting backcourt and top two scorers... And yet we find them being priced as if they're a lock here. It makes no sense, unless the oddsmakers are expecting to see the same kind of effort we saw against the Lake Show two days ago.
Finally, the trends don't tell us much unless you dig a little, as both teams have been profitable in this spot. The Warriors are 13-8 ATS on the road this season, but the Rockets trump that with their 15-8 ATS record in front of the home fans. However, one trend that does stand out is the Warriors 0-6 record ATS in their last six meetings in Houston. They simply don't play well in this venue and given the Rockets are brimming confidence after the Lakers game, I'd say we see another solid win and cover by the home team here. Lay it with Houston over Golden State Thursday.
3♦ HOUSTON
MATT RIVERS
Thursday's free play winner comes in the NBA as I back the Indiana Pacers as the road favorite at Washington.
The Wizards did record a win last night at New Jersey, but playing in unrested (like they are tonight) has seen Washington go just 4-6 against the spread this season. I don't expect that mark to improve, as Indiana is a team that needs to string together some wins as they look to jockey for playoff position in the Eastern Conference.
Indiana is off a win and cover against the Clippers their last time out, and they have held the upperhand in this series defeating the Wizards the last three times the teams have faced one another both straight up and against the spread.
Overall, the Pacers are 7-2 both straight up and against the spread the last nine times the teams have clashed. With Washington just 7-15 against the spread at home this season, you have to back the Pacers to pull away and make it an 8-2 series mark the past ten times the teams have met.
1♦ INDIANA
NHL Predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins Over 3
This bet is on the Penguins to score more than 3 goals. If they score 4 or more goals we win the bet. If they score 3 goals it is a push and the bets are cancelled and refunded. All major betting sites offer team totals (some might not open them for a few hours) but I know 5Dimes.eu and PinnacleSports.com offer team totals right now**
The Penguins have enjoyed the return of Sidney Crosby. They have won 3 of the 4 games with him back in the line up (sole lost was an OT loss in Philadelphia). In those 4 games they have scored 8, 2, 5, and 5 goals per game. The 2 goal game was in Philadelphia where they had 40 shots on net. In Crosby's first home game since coming back Tuesday night the Pens put up 8 goals (with Crosby in on 5 of them). This is a Penguins team that has averaged 3.19 goals per game on the season and a higher 3.43 goals per game at home, both without the best hockey player in the world for the most part of the season. Over their last 10 games the Penguins are averaging 3.90 goals per game, and they are now the favorite to win the Stanley Cup according to Vegas (and for good reasons). Take note that Nashville has allowed 3 goals against per game over their last 10. Pekka Rinne was pulled at home against Edmonton on Tuesday after allowing 3 goals on 7 shots. In his previous three starts to being pulled he had allowed 9 goals against with a 1-1-1 record. Look for the Penguins to score 4 or more tonight at home.
Los Angeles Kings -125
The Blues are coming off of a 4-3 loss last night against the Anaheim Ducks which drops their road record to an average 17-16-4 on the season. St Louis sits on top of the Western Conference by 5 points due to stellar play on home ice. The Kings on the other hand are in a battle for a playoff spot, currently sitting in 8th place (tied with 84 points with Phoenix). The Kings are a desperate hockey team and it has shown. LA has won 5 straight games in impressive fashion. The Kings have scored 3 or more goals in all 5 wins and have held opponents to just 2 goals per game in all 5. The Kings have won 8 of their last 10 games overall, with the two losses coming away from home. These two teams have met 3 times this season with the Kings winning 2 of the 3, which includes their lone meeting in Los Angeles which was a 5-0 win. Coming off a road loss in Anaheim last night it is going to be hard to slow down this Kings team at home that is having no problems scoring since the addition of Jeff Carter. Take the Kings to win.
Teddy Covers
Boston @ Milwaukee
PICK: Milwaukee -3.5
Milwaukee is on a roll right now: 7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS in their last eight ballgames. They were positively buoyed by the acquisition of Monta Ellis at the trading deadline, giving Scott Skiles exactly what he needed to get this team into the playoffs – a good crunch time scorer.
The Bucks won by 22 on the road at Golden State in his first game with the team, then won by 29 at Portland. Ellis: “Coaches, everybody was phenomenal. I think it made it smooth for me. It’s great man, it’s even better to be out there on the floor with those guys sharing the ball. We’ve got a lot of guys who can hit shots and make plays … I think we’re going to get (in the playoffs) if we keep playing the way we did.”
The Bucks are averaging 113 points per game during their current winning streak. They’ve dished at least 30 assists in each of their last four games. The last time to have 30+ assists in five straight games? Orlando’s NBA Finals team in 1995! Head coach Scott Skiles: “We’ve had a (great) stretch here where we’ve scored the ball. One of the reasons we got Monta was to add another scorer out there late in the game.” With the Bucks scrambling to make the playoffs, currently a game out of the #8 spot in the East, there’s no reason to expect any sort of letdown against Boston this evening.
The Celtics are finishing up a grueling two week road trip. This is their seventh straight road game, with a big ‘lookahead’ against Atlantic Division leader Philadelphia on tap for tomorrow, with only a single game separating the two teams in the standings. In other words, if things get away early, look for Doc Rivers to mail this one in, saving his veteran’s tired legs for the Sixers. Take the Bucks.
Sean Murphy
Wisconsin @ Syracuse
PICK: Syracuse -3.5
There's no better time to hop on board the PADDY WAGON, as Sean is getting ready to go on another MONSTER run! After enduring a tough four-day stretch, Murph bounced back with a 2-1 card on Wednesday (incl. free), with his only miss coming thanks to overtime (Pitt/Butler 'under'). You can see his long-term records above; grab a monthly pass today and gain FULL ACCESS to all of Sean's winners for less than $15/day!
All of the talking heads seem to be high on Wisconsin heading into this matchup on Thursday, which is funny, because a lot of them were singing the praises of Vanderbilt in its game against the Badgers last Saturday.
Most will point to the absence of Fab Melo being the Orange's downfall in this game, but make no mistake, that's been well-factored into this line.
I'm just not so easily impressed by Wisconsin. The Badgers blasted Montana in their tournament-opener, but barely escaped with a win over Vandy, and were actually outplayed for much of that game. My clients and I cashed an easy ticket with Michigan State over Wisconsin less than two weeks ago, a game the Spartans won by double-digits.
Yes, the Badgers have a tremendous defense, but their methodical offense isn't going to faze an Orange squad that has become used to playing games in the 50s.
In the last five weeks alone, Syracuse has gone a perfect 4-0 when scoring 58 points or less. Interestingly enough, Wisconsin has posted a 1-3 record in that same scenario dating back to February 4th.
As if we needed proof that the Orange could survive without Fab Melo, they gave us exactly that this past Saturday. Melo's replacement in the starting lineup, Rakeem Christmas, was on the floor for 34 minutes and hauled in 11 rebounds while adding eight points, and perhaps most importantly, played solid defense and committed only three fouls. Syracuse won that game by 16 points over a game Kansas State squad.
Despite all of the hype they've received (and controversy as far as the program goes as well), the Orange have still managed to post a winning ATS record this season, going 18-16 ATS overall. They've run into a few speedbumps lately, but this still appears to be a team poised to advance to play at least one more game in this tournament.
Keep in mind, the spread has meant little in the Sweet 16 in recent years. Since 2010, the SU winner has posted a 15-0-1 ATS mark.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Syracuse -3.5 over WISCONSIN: Gotta go with the Cuse here. I'll admit that at the beginning of the tourney I felt the Syracuse may be done with the loss of Melo, but this team is the deepest team in the tourney and they have found ways to win without him this year, going 4-1 in the games he has missed. The Badgers have begun to shoot the ball a bit better but still they are at 44.6% in the tourney and that wasn't vs the kind of defense they will face tonight. The Cuse come in ranked 24th in the nation in points allowed (60.7 ppg) and 7th in defensive FG% (38.3%). This weak shooting Badger team will have problems generating points vs that kind of defense. The Badgers also like to shoot the 3 ball and they will have to over this zone, but that will not be easy for them as Syracuse is 32nd in the nation in defending the three, allowing just 30.8% from long range. The Badgers do play great defense as they are #1 in points allowed (52.9 ppg) and 9th in defensive FG% (38.5%), but the Cuse are a tough team to defense as they have so many weapons they can go to. How deep are the Orange? Consider this, that they average 74.5 ppg on the year yet just 2 players average double digits. Impressive. Melo will be missed on defense, but the Badgers are more of an outside shooting team, so he won't be missed as much vs this team. Syracuse has done well without their big guy this year and I don't see that changing here as the Badgers will not be able to generate enough offense to keep this one close.
Michigan State -5 over Louisville: (Google Play) Been back and forth on this game and I read everything i can on this game in the forum and around the net and I just feel the the Spartans are the right side here. This game is a little like the Syracuse/ Wisconsin game as you have two very good defenses, but only one team that can score. In their last game Louisville did shoot the ball better in the game vs the Lobos (45.8%), but in that game they did get an unexpected contribution from Russ Smith (5-12 overall and 3-3 from long range), who shoots just 35.7% overall and 29.9% from long range on the year, so you can expect him not to have the same results in this one. Despite the good shooting vs the Lobos the Cardinals are still 222nd in FG (42.5%) and 289th in three point shooting (31.3%), and in their last 12 games they have shot 40.4% or lower in 9 of those games and less than 35% in 5 of those games.That will not get it done vs a Spartans team that doesn't get enough credit for their defense. The Spartans are 17th in the nation in points allowed (59.4 ppg) and 3rd in the nation in defensive FG% (37.9%), plus they are 12th at defending the three ball (29.6%). The big edge in this game comes in on the offensive end of the floor where the Spartans are 70th in scoring (72.4 ppg) and 15th in FG% (48.2 %). Louisville can't come close to numbers like that. Louisville also goes only 6 deep so if they get into foul trouble trying to defend Green they will be in trouble. Both defenses are nearly equal, but MSU gets a big edge on offense and a solid edge in depth and they should wear down the Cardinals in this one to a comfortable win.
Ohio State/ Cincinnati Over 129: With these two defensive teams the easiet way to look should be to the Under, but I will head the other way. The Bearcats have allowed just 61 ppg overall and 55 ppg in their last 3 games, but let's look at the last 3 games for a moment. The played a slowed down game with FSU, A very young Texas team that is not great on offense and a Louisville team that can't shoot for shit. Now in the 3 games before that they allowed 68 points in two of those games, plus the Bearcats have allowed 65 ppg away from home on the year. Now they face a very good OSU team that puts up 74.8 ppg on 48.1% shooting for the year. I don't expect the Cats to hold the Buckeyes in the lower 60's in this one. Ohio Sttae has allowed just 59.2 ppg on the year, but down the stretch it has been a bit different as they have allowed 6 of their last 9 opponents to hit at least 66 points, while allowing an average of 65.8 ppg over that stretch. The Bearcats don't score a ton, but they do average 68.2 ppg on the year and 65.9 ppg away from home, so they should be good for the mid 60's in this one. FT's should also play a part in this one as it should be a physical game, plus we could get a close one at the end and that will mean FT's as well. Cincy isn't great from the line, but OSU hits 70+ % of their FT's. I really like OSU to put up around 70+ points in this one, while the Bearcats get somewhere in the 60's .I expect around 135 in this one. KEY TREND--- OHIO ST is 17-6 OVER in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Marquette/ Florida Over 147: (Google Play) Been on the bandwagon of Marquette all year and would have loved to play them here, but the line was a bit scary so ill go with the total. Both of these teams will push the ball and get up plenty of shots and that should equal plenty of points. Florida has averaged 76.3 ppg on the year, while the Golden Eagles have scored 75.9 ppg, while both defenses are just average.. Florida does get a lot of their points from long range, while Marquette uses the uptempo pace to generate their scoring, plus we have two teams that hit 71+% of their FT's. This will be the last game of the day and it will be fun to watch. Expect a lot of running and scoring as this one flirts with 160 points.
1 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati +7.5 over Ohio State: The Bearcats have been playing very well down the stretch and i just don't see the Buckeyes being able to blow them out here. I expect it to go down to the wire. KEY TREND-- CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
Wunderdog Sports
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets +155
Many thought that with the addition of Chris Paul, the Clippers would be the team to beat in the NBA West. They were living up to the expectation at 19-9 through their first 28 games, but suddenly the bloom has come off the rose. The Clippers have been mediocre for an extended period now at just 7-11 in their last 18 games. The road has been a challenge at 3-6 in their last nine, losing to weak teams in Golden State, Phoenix, New Jersey, and Minnesota. The Hornets would like nothing better than to knock-off their former teammate here, and they already own home wins vs. Boston, Dallas, Utah, and Orlando. The Clippers are struggling, and New Orleans has been capable and should be highly motivated for this one. Play New Orleans on the moneyline.
Jimmy Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
The Bucks are rolling. They are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games with the lone coming to Chicago by only 2 points. They'll also be lacking no motivation tonight as they look to end a 4-game skid against the Celtics.
Boston, which is playing its 7th straight on the road, will likely be more concerned about tomorrow night's revenge game with Philly. The Celtics, who are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games, haven't shown they can be trusted on the highway.
It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 8-20-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings and 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee. We'll lay the points.
Black Widow
Portland Trail Blazers +1.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have not been playing well of late, but now is the time to pull the trigger on them as a home underdog to the Memphis Grizzlies. Rarely will you ever get this team as a home dog. I have no doubt they'll get things turned around because the talent on their roster is still better than half of the teams in the league, including Memphis. Portland has won four of their last five meetings with the Grizzlies, including back-to-back home wins by 13 points each. Portland is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) as a home underdog of 6 points or less since 1996. The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Memphis is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the Blazers and the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
MILWAUKEE -3 over Boston: Not a superb spot for the Bucks as they are off a couple of west coast games, but this is a team that is rolling right now and they are catching a Boston team that is playing it's 7th straight game on the road. Since their 2 point home loss to the Bulls, the Buck have reeled off 6 straight wins and have outscored their opponents by 13 ppg. The Bucks offense has been way up of late as they have averaged 112 ppg in their last 7 games and that stretch has helped push their seasonal average to 98 ppg. Defensively they have struggled some as they have allowed 101.4 ppg in their last 7 games, but a tired Celtic team that has averaged just 91.1 ppg overall and 89.4 ppg on the road should not be able to take advantage of this bad defense. The Celtics do play good defense, but a gain Tired legs will not help them keep up with this fast paced offense that the Bucks have been employing of late. Boston is tired and will not be able to keep up and score enough points to keep this one close. Bucks by 9 or so.
3 UNIT PLAY
Utah/ Sacramento Under 211.5: Boy the Kings have been involved in many high scoring games of late, as their last 5 games have averaged 119.6 ppg, but I still feel this is too high an OU line. King home games have averaged 204 ppg on the year and they do average 101.6 ppg at home, but they will be taking on a Utah team that has been playing well defensively of late as they have allowed just 93.4 ppg (regulation) in their last 4 games. The Kings did allow 110 points to Memphis in their last game, but in the two games before that they did allow just 99 and 95 points to Minnesota and Boston respectively, and Utah does score just 95 ppg on the road this year. In the last 10 meetings these teams 211 points have been scored just twice and 1 of those games was in OT. I expect the low 200's at best here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Milwaukee/ Boston Under 199.5: Boston will be a tired team in this one, so I would not expect them to run here. Milwaukee has been on fire offensively, but even a tired Boston team should be able to keep them from putting up more than 105 points here. Boston will not push the ball, even vs a bad defense and that should keep them in the low 90's at best. Im not sure if either team will hit 100 here as I kinda see a 99 to 91 final (in Bucks favor) here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Golden State/ Houston Over 196: GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 OVER after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season., while HOUSTON is 11-2 OVER after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.