Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, March 24,2011

SPORTS WAGERS

Connecticut –1½ over San Diego State

You take these teams like the Aztecs, that play in the non-power conferences and you really don’t know how good they are until they play some of the better teams in the country. So yeah, the Aztecs have compiled a 34-2 record but their two losses came against BYU, both by 13 points. They did beat BYU late in the season after Brandon Davies was suspended and the Cougars were making adjustments. Furthermore, the Aztecs two wins to get here came against North Colorado and Temple with the latter going into double OT. The Owls looked awful in that game. They had no energy and were running on fumes and a really good team would’ve blown them away. The Aztecs didn’t and now they’ll have to face a real team with a ton of confidence. All the Huskies have done over the past two weeks is beat everyone in their path en route to a Big East Championship and subsequent Sweet 16 appearance. They whacked Bucknell by 29 in what was supposed to be a “hangover” game and then put away the Bearcats in the second game by 11. UConn has reeled off seven in a row and they’re not done yet. They should dominate the boards in this game and they’ll play an Aztec team that struggles from the charity stripe and that is far too jump-shot oriented to beat this superior foe. Play: Connecticut –1½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

Butler +4½ over Wisconsin

These two are mirror images of one another and if any team has an edge it’s the Bulldogs and not the Badgers as the line suggests. Butler has had a much tougher path to this point with wins over Old Dominion and Pitt while Wisconsin has beaten Belmont and K-State. Both teams play great defense and don’t turn the rock over often. They both have a big man that can score in the post and they both get great PG play. The total in this game is a very low 124, which suggests the teams are going to be around the 60-point mark and that’s another thing that makes the Bulldogs so appealing taking points. Wisconsin has some ugly offensive numbers this season and they also ranked 299th in the country in rebounding while the Bulldogs were 177th. It’s also worth noting that Butler is 15-3 in March over the last three seasons, they’ve won 11 in a row and they’ve been through all of this before and had success. Matt Howard, Zach Hahn, Shelvin Mack, Ronald Nored, Andrew Smith and Shawn Vanzant were all key contributors on last year's national runner-up. The Bulldogs are hugely undervalued here against an inferior Badger team. Play: Butler +4½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

BYU +125 over Florida

Perhaps the Cougars have over-performed to this point but the way they wiped out a very solid Zags club cannot be ignored. BYU’s eight-point win over Wofford is also a flattering score to the loser, as the Terriers were down by 16 with about 2½ minutes to go in the game and hit two three’s in the game’s last 30 seconds. The Cougars knocked the Gators out of last year’s tourney and this year’s edition is better than last. This is not a one-man show either. Jimmer Fredette and his skill set needs no introduction. However, the “Jimmer” has a better surrounding cast this year, which includes the shooting ability of Jackson Emery, the low-post ability of junior forward Noah Hartsock and Charles Abouo's ability to score around the basket. The Gators played in a weak SEC. They lost twice to Kentucky down the stretch and they were blown out by Ohio State early in the year. So, while the Gators 28-7 overall record looks good, the fact is, they really didn’t have any real notable wins this entire year. Florida’s biggest wins came against Vandy and perhaps Xavier. The Gators strength is making three’s. That's fine if the shots are falling, not so good if they aren't. Also note that Kenny Boynton sprained his ankle in Saturday’s game against the Bruins. He’s scheduled to go but who knows how well it’ll hold up. Boynton is a willing and streaky shooter and when he gets on a roll he can carry the Gators. On a bum ankle he may not be able to carry them and frankly, we just don’t see the Cougars as being the inferior squad here. Play: BYU +125 (Risking 2 units).

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota @ Dallas
PICK: Minnesota

When Dallas plays host to Minnesota in a Western Conference clash at the AA Arena Thursday evening they will take the court knowing they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. On the flip side, Minnesota enters 5-1 ATS this season when taking on an opponent playing with three or more days of rest this season. With that, look for the T-Wolves to improve to 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on this floor here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Jim Feist

Hornets at Jazz
Pick: Under

The last time Utah was in the second of a back to back the offense went in the tank, scoring 85 points in a loss to Memphis, a game that went under the total by 14 points. They are in a tough spot, playing at Oklahoma City last night before coming home for this one. And they face a slow down, defensive-oriented New Orleans team that doesn't like to run on anybody. The Under is 10-3-1 in Utah's last 14 vs. a team with a winning record and the Under is 41-19 in Hornets last 60 overall. Plus, when these teams meet, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play the Hornets/Jazz Under the total.

VEGAS EXPERTS

BYU at Florida

BYU stunned a lot of people when they waxed Gonzaga in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, winning by 30 in a game that was listed as a pick. However, Florida is 2-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament and looking back further is 54-30 ATS in all tournament games under Billy Donovan. They also have revenge for a first round Tourney loss to the Cougars last year in OT. BYU couldn't miss against Gonzaga, but is 0-7 ATS following a game where they made 13 or more three-point shots. Take the much better team over Jimmer.

Play on: Florida

Matt Fargo

Arizona vs. Duke
Play: Arizona +8.5

I won with Arizona against Texas and while it was considered a controversial win, the Wildcats deserve to be here. The Blue Devils are as healthy as they have been all season but I feel this line is slightly inflated simply because it is Duke, the reigning NCAA Champions. Duke is favored by only three points less here than it was against Michigan whose RPI was over 30 spots lower than that of the Wildcats. Arizona came into the tournament with an RPI of 20th and that does not equate to such a big line. According to AZ Central, the Blue Devils looked a little out of sync offensively against the Wolverines and that's not surprising considering Kyrie Irving missed three months. Roles were established when Irving was out, and Nolan Smith became used to having the ball in his hands on almost every possession. With Irving back, there has been a subtle change in roles and that is why the insertion of a solid player such as Irving back into the lineup could be disrupting Duke's chemistry. The Wildcats possess a superstar in Derrick Williams, the Pac Ten Player of the Year, they play great defense and they control the glass. As a matter of fact, the Wildcats finished as the best rebounding team in the Pac Ten and have posted a 22-1 record when they win the battle of the boards. Winning the battle of the boards won't be easy but the same can be said for Duke which normally wins that battle as well. I feel the Wildcats have the edge down low overall and that is a big key to victory. The Wildcats are playing closer to home here which is an edge as Southern California is home to six Wildcats players, including Derrick Williams, Solomon Hill and Jordin Mayes. Arizona head coach Sean Miller has turned this program around and he has been a big-time tournament coach going 27-13 ATS in all of his tournament games. The Wildcats are now 13-4 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. 3* Arizona Wildcats

Cajun Sports

B.Y.U. vs. Florida
Play: Over 149

These two teams met in last season’s NCAA Tournament with BYU surprising the Gators 99 to 92 in double-overtime in a first-round matchup. BYU’s star Jimmer Fredette put thirty-seven points on the Gators in that win. Florida’s defensive star, Kenny Boynton injured his ankle late in the game versus UCLA but Gator’s head coach Billy Donavan expects him to play tonight. It could be a big night for Fredette if Boynton does not do a better job against him this time around. Both BYU and Florida have faced UCLA this season, that is there only common opponent with the Gators winning 73 to 65 while the Cougars fell 86 to 79 with both games going Over the posted total. BYU is 12-8 Over on the road this season and Florida is 11-6 Over when playing away from Gainesville. The Cougars coming off an ATS win in their last game now playing on the road has gone Over at a rate of 13-1, as an underdog in the same situation they have gone 15-1 Over their last 16 times to post. Florida when coming off two wins now playing against a non-conference opponent in this price range has gone a perfect 6-0 Over. A check of our systems database reveals a pair of powerful league-wide situations that both point to this game sailing Over the posted total. Play OVER on CBB teams off a straight up win and going Over in their last two games now installed as a favorite in this price range, 41-14 Over. Play OVER on CBB teams off two games where they covered the spread and the games went Over the total and now play as a favorite in this price range, 23-7 Over their last thirty in this situation. We will make the call here for this one to go Over the posted total as both teams score the ball in the Big Easy.

Craig Trapp

B.Y.U. vs. Florida
Play: Over 149

BYU averages 81 per game but they don't play any defense as they just really outscore teams. Last years tourney head to head game they went way over 99-92 with BYU winning. More scoring in this one than any other game in tourney this year as both teams reach 80. Jimmer gets his 35 plus and the up and down game will play right into our over.

Scott Spreitzer

Connecticut @ San Diego State
PICK: San Diego State

While UConn rode Kemba Walker's shoulders into the Sweet-16, the Aztecs have utilized team basketball in the Big Dance, just as they did throughout the season. SDSU is still not getting the line respect they deserve. The Aztecs are 34-2 SU & 22-12 ATS. Their only two losses came against BYU, a pair of losses they avenged in the MWC tourney championship...and in blowout fashion. SDSU whipped the still-alive Cougars 72-54. Yes, BYU was without Brandon Davies (suspended for the season) for the championship tilt - but they have also been without him in their two Big Dance wins. SDSU had four players score between 9 and 21 points in the win. And that's what this team is all about. There are no superstars on the floor...at least not as far as this team is concerned. However, they do have a future NBA star (in my opinion) in Kawhi Leonard. The 6-7 sophomore forward is averaging a double-double this season, scoring 15.6 ppg while grabbing 10.6 rpg. If Leonard were playing for his team's Sweet-16 opponent, you'd never stop hearing about him on SportsCenter. But like his team, Leonard is still under-valued. The Aztecs aren't going to stop Kemba Walker. But they do have 6-8 Billy White to switch onto Walker throughout the contest to make life a little tougher on the Husky guard on the offensive end. And again, I can't say enough about SDSU's team concept. Everyone has bought into Steve Fisher's style. Six players average between 7 and 15.6 ppg. Forward Malcolm Thomas, another future pro, combines with Leonard to average 18.7 rpg. The bottom line: UConn is running into an athletic, physical, yet disciplined team, and I don't believe Walker has enough help to overcome the Aztecs. SDSU averages 72 ppg on 46.4% shooting. Yet they have held their opponents to 58.8 ppg on 39.3% shooting. They rank 6th and 13th in those two categories, respectively. They're also one of the stingiest teams defending the arc. And the Aztecs own a +11 rebound margin per game. I believe another Big East team is going down for the count. I'm playing San Diego State on Thursday night.

BIG AL

Arizona @ Duke
PICK: Duke -8.5

In its last game, Arizona was a 5-point dog to the Texas Longhorns, and benefited from a horrible call by the ref, who had a quick trigger on his five-second count, which prevented a Texas timeout, and turned the ball over to the Wildcats, who proceeded to score the go-ahead bucket. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, underdogs priced from +7 to +16 points are a horrid 5-22 ATS in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the Tournament, if they're off an upset win as a 2-point or greater underdog, and their opponent is off a pointspread loss. With Duke, indeed, off an ATS loss last week vs. the Michigan Wolverines, we'll play on Mike Krzyzewski's men on Thursday. Take the Blue Devils.

EZWINNERS

Florida Gators -3

BYU has not missed a beat since starting center Barndon Davies was removed from the team for a violation of the honor code, but at some point I would expect that to catch up with the Cougars and I think this is the game in which it happens. Florida has a serious height advantage in the front-court. Noah Hartsock is BYU’s biggest player in the paint at 6'8" while the Gators boast a trio of talented big men to control the boards. Alex Tyus is 6'8" and Vernon Macklin and Chandler Parsons are listed at 6'10" which gives the Gators plenty of size to control the boards. Fredette will get his points but he is going to have to work with Gator's sophomore guard Kenny Boynton guarding him. Last year these two teams staged an epic double-overtime battle in the first round of the NCAA Tournament with the Cougars pulling out a 99-92 win as a five-point favorite. In that game Fredette scored 37 points, but Boynton did a pretty good job as he held Fredette to 24 in regulation. I like the Gators to gain their revenge in this game. Lay the points.

Brent Brooks

San Diego St. +100

Action on UConn will be abundant. The casual bettors are really affecting the market this deep in the tourney. UConn is a name school, fresh off the BE tourney win, and boast one of the best do it all players that CBB has seen in years in Kemba Walker.

Leonard had a poor outing in the Aztecs double OT win over Temple. While he finished with 16 points, it was obviously an extended game. Early in the second half he had accomplished very little in the game. Expect a bounce back performance. Also, The Aztecs are the veteran bunch by comparison over the Huskies and that angle plays well this deep into the tournament.

James Patrick Sports

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

Mavs clicking as home favorite, covering (6) of last (8) chances laying (9) points or more at home in their American Airlines Arena. In fact Dallas has owned the Timberwolves by winning (17) of the last (18) meetings straight-up including a (9-1) ATS clip in Texas. Big Game James Patrick's Thursday NBA complimentary selection is Dallas Mavericks.

Tom Freese

Brigham Young vs. Florida
Play: Florida -3

BYU is 32-4 straight up this year. The Cougars are 30-62-2 ATS their last 94 games as an underdog. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS their last 10 Big Dance games. BYU is 6-18 ATS their last 24 games off an ATS win. The Cougars are 2-8 ATS their last 10 Thursday games. BYU is 0-4 ATS off a win by more than 20 points. Florida is 28-7 straight up this year. The Gators are 6-0 ATS their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as favorites of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Florida is 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 games overall. The Gators are 15-7 ATS on Thursday and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 Non-Conference games. The Gators are 5-1 ATS their 6 games on a neutral court.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 189.5

The Jazz are extremely banged up and their offense has struggled as a result with just 85 and 94-point efforts in their last 2 games. Points will continue to be hard to come by this evening against a New Orleans club that ranks among the best in the league defensively. The Hornets are only giving up 93.0 ppg (4th in the league) on 44.9% shooting (8th in the league). They should be in exceptional defensive form this evening having had 4 full days of rest and preparation time. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Utah. The Under is 41-19 in the Hornets' last 60 overall, 5-1 in their last 6 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 games when playing with 3 or more days of rest. These teams combined for just 171 points when they last met in December, and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this evening. We'll take the Under.