Ray Monohan
Marquette vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -4½
Marquette the #11 seed looks to keep its postseason run going Friday when it faces #2 seeded North Carolina in an East Regional semifinal in Newark, N.J. North Carolina should be able use its advantage under the boards to create opportunities on both ends of the court to win and cover the 4.5 points. Here's why. Both teams can - and will - score in bunches, but the Tar Heels' size advantage in the paint should prove decisive. UNC has won 16 of its last 18 games since freshman Kendall Marshall took over as the starting PG. He absolutly is playing his best ball of the year. Throw in Harrison Barnes,a potent offense that has totaled 188 points in two tournament games, and junior forward Tyler Zeller's 15.2 points and you have a dynamic offense that Marquette just can't match. Trends I like in this one include, Tar Heels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games, and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Sean Murphy
New Orleans @ Utah
Pick: New Orleans -1.5
This is a nightmarish spot for the Utah Jazz, as they return home to play their fourth game in the last five nights, in four different cities, coming off a discouraging loss against the Thunder in which they hung around for three quarters but couldn't get it done.
Utah has been simply awful in back-to-back situations since Jerry Sloan resigned back in early February. They're 0-4 SU and ATS when playing on no rest under head coach Ty Corbin. Clearly, he hasn't done a great job getting his team ready to play, although he's also had to deal with a makeshift lineup on most nights due to several key injuries.
The Jazz won't be at full strength on Thursday night either. Devin Harris and Derrick Favors missed last night's game and are questionable at best for Thursday. Andre Kirilenko was forced to leave due to a bruised nerve in his knee, and only has an outside shot at playing on Thursday.
The Hornets are at the opposite end of the spectrum right now - as healthy as they've been all season. They're just 5-3 SU over their last eight games, but keep in mind, those three losses came against the Bulls, Nuggets, and Celtics. They've gone 5-2-1 ATS over that stretch.
At 16-20 SU, the Hornets have been a great road team this season, but did appear to turn the corner near the end of their last trip, winning in Memphis and Cleveland before losing (but covering the number) in Chicago.
You don't have to go back too far to find the last time the Hornets won in Utah. They accomplished that feat last January, notching a 91-87 win as 7.5-point underdogs. Of course, that came against a vastly superior Jazz squad to the one they'll face tonight.
Utah has won only twice in its last seven games, and those victories came against a worn out 76ers squad and the lowly T'Wolves. The Jazz have actually won three games in a row here at home, but that only sets up additional value with the Hornets in this spot. Utah's home court edge has been minimal, as evidenced by its 14-21 ATS home record.
The Hornets haven't taken the floor since Saturday, and that's key as they're a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games played on at least three days' rest. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams that are over .500.
The Jazz haven't been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but getting there is a longshot at best. Meanwhile, the Hornets are in the thick of the race, currently sitting in seventh place. This is the start of a key three-game road trip that will only get tougher with stops in Phoenix and Los Angeles. Look for them to make the most of this winnable game. Take New Orleans.
Nick Parsons
Anaheim Mighty Ducks @ Nashville Predators
PICK: Nashville Predators
For a number of different reasons I believe the Predators will maul the Ducks tonight:
The Ducks are 41-27-3-2 this year and are coming off a stunning 4-3 OT victory over the Stars last night in which Teemu Selanne scored the tying goal with seven seconds left in the third and then Cam Fowler popped in the winner in the extra frame.
On the other side of the rink: The Predators have won four straight including a 3-1 victory over Edmonton on Tuesday.
Bottom line: Besides dealing with the obvious back to back issue, Jonas Hiller will be making his first start in over a month for the Ducks.
Hiller is just 1-2-0 with a 3.39 GAA vs. Nashville this season, while his counterpart Pekka Rinne is 3-0-0 with a 0.74 GAA vs. Anaheim this year.
Both teams are red hot right now and each is battling for a playoff position at the bottom of the congested Western Conference standings.
But this is great line value on a home side that has many key factors working in its favor; consider a second look at the Nashville Predators tonight.
Tony George
Florida -3
Dear BYU - The Slipper falls off. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE! Almost enough said. COMPLETE team versus a one man show. 2-Time national title coach versus a coach who has never been even this far. Ferdette is a stud, NO doubt, and if he scores 40 points + BYU can win this. Florida will devise a scheme to counter that in my opinion and the body of work, the battle tested games against far superior teams in the SEC all season will prevail. Nothing fancy in terms of throwing stats at you, as the stats favor BYU slightly, but the opponents are different. While the stats are almost even, you have to look at WHO these teams played along the way to obtain those stats. I think the difference in schedules, and with Billy Donovan having 4 days to prepare versus 36 hours between rounds makes the difference.
Frank Jordan
New Orleans Hornets vs. Utah Jazz
Play: New Orleans Hornets -4.5
New Orleans is in the 7th spot out West, but only a few games back from moving up to 5th or 6th however also only a few games out of not being in it at all. Utah has lost three in a row and six of 10 as they have not prospered as well as Denver since the big star trade and look like a beaten team ready for the offseason. Look for New Orleans to go into Utah and win with ease and the Jazz are a lifeless team. Play New Orleans
Wunderdog
B.Y.U. vs. Florida
Play: BYU +3
It seems like every year there are a couple powerhouse teams that fly into the Sweet 16 under the radar, mix it up with power conference teams and more than hold their own. This may be a record season as five teams outside of the top six power conferences will do battle. One of those teams is BYU, who arguably has the highest impact player in the tournament in Jimmer Fredette. While Kemba Walker has carried the young UConn Huskies, Fredette has done even more for BYU and with a close game expected, having him in your camp to knock down some big shots late is the place to be. It has been a good season for the Gators and they have handled a couple soft touches to get here, but they will be severely challenged in this one. BYU lost just four games all year, two of which were to New Mexico, who apparently has their number. This is a live dog with a fearless scorer down the stretch. Play BYU and the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +15
This game qualifies in a nice system that has cashed 24 of 33 times since 1995. What we want to do is play on road dogs off a straight up home favored loss if the total is 180 or higher and they have 3 or more days of rest. The Wolves were blown out at home by the Kings in their last game and will look to play much better here. The Wolves have kept it close several times against some of the leagues better team and will look to rise to the occasion tonight as they have the shock value of not having K. Love in the lineup. Teams without one of their top players usually step it up in the first game of the players absence. The Wolves have covered over 70% of the time when taking 12.5 or more points on the road. Dallas is just 2-8 against the spread as a home favorite from 12. to 16. Look for Minny to lose here tonight but by less than 16 points. Take Minnesota.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks -15
I'll take the Dallas Mavericks Thursday to blow the Minnesota Timberwolves out of the building. Dallas has had 3 days' rest since thumping Golden State 101-73 last time out, and I believe they will earn a similar blowout victory tonight. Minnesota is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games, which includes a 32-point home loss to Sacramento, a 15-point road loss to the Jazz and a 23-point road loss to Golden State. This team has clearly packed it in.
The T'Wolves will be without their best player and lone All-Star tonight in Kevin Love. He went out early in their 32-point home loss to the Kings last time out with a groin injury, and Minnesota just wasn't the same. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take Dallas Thursday.
Steve Janus
1* Florida -3
I am not buying into the hype of Jimmer Fredette and the BYU Cougars. They are a great team, but they don't match up well at all against a the Gators. Fredette may be able to score 30 in this game, but he is the only offensive threat the Cougars have. I think will really struggle defensively, as they just don't have the height to slow down the Gators inside. I look for Florida to do whatever they want on the offensive side, which will negate anything Jimmer does offensively.Florida is 11-3 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Bet the Gators!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +15.5
The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more while the Mavs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games as a favorite of 11.0 of more points. The Timberwolves are also 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Dallas. Love is out tonight, but Minnesota should be motivated enough to keep this one closer than the odds makers think. The T-Wolves have had 3 days to think about their brutally embarrassing 32-point loss to Sacramento and they will be further motivated by 2 prior losses to Dallas this season. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* on Utah Jazz +5
As poor as the Utah Jazz have played of late, there's no way they should be catching points at home tonight against the New Orleans Hornets. Utah is fighting for their playoff lives and will show up Thursday to try and gain ground on Memphis for the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference. The Hornets are 25-40 ATS (-19.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Utah is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with New Orleans, including 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home meetings. Take the Jazz and the points.
Info Plays
3* Hornets -4.5
Reasons why New Orleans will cover:
1) Utah has looked awful defensively and its hard to see them turning up the intensity when they are playing their second of a back-to-back and their fourth game in the last five days.
2) The Hornets on the other hand come in fresh off 3 days rest, and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Hornets are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
3) Utah is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +15.5
The T-Wolves have what it takes to keep this one closer than the odds makers think, even without Kevin Love in the lineup. They have had 3 full days to gear up for this one, and they will be lacking no confidence against a team they played to a 3-point game earlier this month. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - after allowing 80 points or less last game and up against an opponent that allowed 110 points or more in its last game - are 44-17 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 10.4 points. In addition, Dallas is only 1-8 ATS in its last 9 home games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more. Take the points.
Hollywood Sports
New Orleans Hornets at Utah Jazz
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
How these Jazz have fallen to see themselves as a 4.5-point underdog on their home court to the Hornets. Utah (36-36) has now lost three straight games as well as five of their last seven after their 106-94 loss in Oklahoma City last night. Now Devin Harris, Derrick Favors and Andrei Kirilenko are all listed as questionable for tonight's game with various ailments. Of course, they are without their center, Mehmet Okur, who is already out the season. That's what happens to teams playing out the string. This is a tough spot for Utah having to play in back-to-back days -- and the Jazz have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games played without a day of rest. And on their home court, Utah has failed to cover 8 of their last 10 games. New Orleans has not played since their 89-85 loss to Boston on Saturday. The Hornets have covered 6 straight games when played with at least three days of rest. And while the Jazz are 20-15 at home this season, New Orleans has covered 12 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lay the points with New Orleans tonight.