SPORTS ADVISORS
WEST REGIONAL
(at Salt Lake City, Utah)
(5) Butler (30-4, 14-20 ATS) vs. (1) Syracuse (30-4, 21-9 ATS)
Butler brings the nation’s longest active winning streak into the Sweet 16, having won 22 consecutive games (10-12 ATS). After blowout out UTEP 77-59 as a 2½-point favorite in last Thursday’s opening round of the Big Dance in San Jose, the Bulldogs barely held off 13th-seeded Murray State 54-52 on Saturday, coming up just short as a four-point chalk. Over the past five games, Butler has averaged 68.6 ppg on an even 45 percent shooting, while holding foes to just 56.8 ppg on 39.3 percent shooting. In fact, it has held nine of its last 10 opponents under 60 points.
Syracuse had lost two in a row SU and ATS heading into the Big Dance – it’s only two-game slide of the season – but it had no trouble at all in its first two Tournament games in Buffalo. First, it ripped No. 16 seed Vermont 79-56 as a 15½-point favorite Friday, then drubbed eighth-seeded Gonzaga 87-65 laying 6½ points Sunday. The Orange have scored at least 75 points in seven of their last eight games, going 6-2 SU and ATS.
These teams met in the second round of the NIT in 2002, with the ‘Cuse eking out a 66-65 overtime victory, and Butler cashing as a two-point road pup.
Butler, in its fourth straight Tourney and ninth overall, has reached the third round for the third time since 2003, but the Bulldogs have never advanced beyond this point. In 2007, they lost to eventual champion Florida 65-57, cashing as a 10½-point underdog. Syracuse, in its 32nd Big Dance, is also in the regional semis for the third time in eight years. In 2003, the Orange went all the way to their first and only title; but in 2004 and 2009, they fell at this point, including last year’s 84-71 setback to Oklahoma as a one-point underdog.
Butler is 3-3 at neutral venues, outscoring teams by less than one point per game (67.8-67.0) while getting outshot 45.6 percent to 39.8 percent. Meanwhile, the Orange are now 5-1 SU and ATS at neutral sites, averaging a whopping 86.2 ppg on 54.6 percent shooting, while allowing 71.5 ppg on 42.3 percent shooting.
The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site starts, 1-4 ATS in their last five as a neutral-site pup and 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday outings, but they are also 21-7 ATS in their last 28 as a ‘dog regardless of venue. Syracuse, the No. 2 spread-covering unit in the country, is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 29-11 overall, 8-2 in non-conference action, 26-10 as a favorite, 9-3 at neutral sites and 5-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
Butler is on a 6-1 “under” surge, though those were all as a chalk. The Bulldogs carry a handful of “over” streaks, as well, including 11-3 at neutral sites, 21-11 outside the Horizon League and 4-1 in the Tournament. Syracuse brings in “over” runs of 6-0-1 overall, 6-2 in non-conference action, 17-5 at neutral sites, 5-0-1 as a favorite and 5-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE and OVER
(6) Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) vs. (2) Kansas State (28-7, 20-9-1 ATS)
Xavier is on a 10-1 SU roll, going 8-3 ATS in that stretch, including a pair of SU and ATS wins in the first two rounds of this event in Milwaukee. On Friday, the Musketeers dropped No. 11 seed Minnesota 65-54 giving 1½ points, then came back Sunday and edged third-seeded Pittsburgh 71-68 as a 1½-point pup. Xavier is putting up an average of 78.4 ppg in its last five starts, while allowing 71.2 ppg.
Kansas State is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five outings, with the lone loss coming to top-ranked Kansas in the Big 12 tournament title game. The Wildcats cruised through last weekend in Oklahoma City, ripping No. 15 seed North Texas 82-62 as a 15-point chalk last Thursday and besting BYU 84-72 Saturday as a four-point favorite. K-State has eclipsed the 80-point mark offensively in five of its last six and eight of its last 11 contests.
These teams have some recent and distant history. Xavier beat Kansas State 87-79 in the first round of the 1990 Big Dance. Much more recently, the Musketeers and Wildcats met in three straight seasons before taking a break this year. Xavier went 2-1 SU and ATS in those contests, winning 76-66 as a 7½-point home chalk in January 2007 and 103-77 giving nine points at home 11 months later. K-State took the most recent meeting 71-56 as a 6½-point home favorite in January 2009, meaning the favorite cashed in all three contests.
Xavier, making its 21st all-time appearance and fifth in a row, is in the round of 16 for the third straight season. Two years ago at this stage, the Musketeers topped West Virginia 79-75 in overtime as a 1½-point underdog, but last year, they lost to Pitt 60-55, cashing as a 6½-point pup.
Kansas State, which is in the Tournament for the second time in three seasons after a 12-year drought, has reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1988, when it beat Purdue before losing to Kansas in the regional final.
The Musketeers are 4-3 SU and ATS at neutral venues this season, putting up 72 ppg (41.2 percent shooting) and allowing 70.1 ppg (40.9 percent). K-State is 7-2 (6-3 ATS) on neutral floors this season, averaging 79.9 ppg and giving up 72.2 ppg. The SU winner has cashed in each of Xavier’s seven neutral games this year and each of the Wildcats’ last eight.
The Musketeers are on numerous spread-covering surges, including 37-17-2 overall, 37-15 on neutral courts, 4-1 in non-conference play, 15-4 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 15-5-1 in the Tournament and 9-1 as a tourney pup. Similarly, the Wildcats are on ATS tears of 19-7-1 overall, 8-0 outside the Big 12, 16-4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 16-5-1 as a favorite, 6-1 at neutral sites and 6-0 as a neutral-site chalk.
Xavier is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-1 getting points, 5-1 as a Tournament pup, 14-3 after a spread-cover, 16-5 after a SU win, 6-2 outside the Atlantic 10 and 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Also, the over is 5-2 in K-State’s last seven as a neutral-site chalk. However, the under is on runs of 11-4 for Xavier at neutral sites and 4-1 for the Musketeers in the Big Dance, and Kansas State is on “under” strings of 7-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1-1 after a SU win and 5-1 after a spread cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE
EAST REGION
(at Syracuse, N.Y.)
(11) Washington (26-9, 15-18 ATS) vs. (2) West Virginia (29-6, 15-19 ATS)
Washington, one of three double-digit seeds advancing into the Sweet 16, has won nine in a row SU, going a stout 8-1 ATS in that stretch. The Huskies squeaked by No. 6 seed Marquette 80-78 as a one-point underdog in the opening round last Thursday, then actually went off as a two-point chalk against third-seeded New Mexico on Saturday and pounded the Lobos 82-64. Washington shot a combined 51.2 percent in the two wins in San Jose, six percentage points better than its opponents (45.3 percent).
The Mountaineers have won eight in a row (4-4 ATS), and they rolled through the first two rounds of the Big Dance in Buffalo with Friday’s 77-50 rout of 15th-seeded Morgan State as a 17-point chalk and Sunday’s 68-59 win over 10th-seeded Missouri as a six-point favorite. West Virginia is averaging a modest 62.4 ppg on 40.5 percent shooting in its last five outings, all on neutral floors, but its defense has been sterling, yielding just 53.8 ppg on stifling 34.0 percent shooting.
West Virginia received bad news Tuesday when starting point guard Darryl Bryant broke his foot in practice. He’ll be out the rest of the tournament. However, Bryant played a total of just 38 minutes in last weekend’s action, scoring four points in each of the two wins.
Washington, in its 15th Big Dance, has reached the third round for the third time in the last six Tournament appearances. However, the Huskies bowed out at this point the last two times, losing to Louisville 93-79 as a 1½-point underdog in 2005 and to UConn 98-92 as a 6½-point underdog a year later. In fact, Washington has never won a third-round game, going 0-5.
West Virginia, which received its highest seed in school history this year, is in its third straight Tournament and fifth in the last six years. The Mountaineers lost their last two third-round contests, however, 74-71 to Texas in 2006 (cashing as a five-point underdog) and 79-75 to Xavier in 2008 (as a 1½-point favorite). Their only Elite Eight appearance since 1959 came in 2005.
Washington is 5-1 at neutral venues (4-2 ATS) – winning the last five in a row – outscoring teams by an average of 6.4 ppg (74.2-67.8) and shooting 47.8 percent to 41.5 percent for the opposition. The Mountaineers have won all nine of their neutral-site contests, prevailing by an average of 11 ppg (69.1-58.1) and outshooting foes 43.4 percent to 37.6 percent.
The Huskies have covered in four in a row at neutral sites during their 8-1 ATS tear, and they are on further spread-covering upturns of 7-1 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 6-1 in the Tournament. But they are also 5-9 ATS in their last 14 outside the Pac-10, 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a ‘dog and 2-5 ATS in their last seven Thursday starts.
The Mountaineers, meanwhile, are on ATS rolls of 10-2-1 in the Big Dance, 6-2 as a Tournament chalk and 5-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they are on a 5-18 ATS freefall as a favorite of less than seven points.
The under is 18-9 in Washington’s last 26 non-conference games, but the Huskies are on “over” surges of 18-8 after a spread-cover, 25-12 coming off a SU win, 16-5 on Thursday, 4-0 as a pup and 6-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog. The Mountaineers are on a stream of “under” streaks, including 8-2 overall (6-0 last six), 5-0 as a chalk, 6-0 on neutral floors and 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
(12) Cornell (29-4, 18-10 ATS) vs. (1) Kentucky (34-2, 19-15 ATS)
Cornell, the Ivy League champion and another double-digit seed still dancing, pulled off a pair of upsets last weekend in Jacksonville, Fla. First, the Big Red tamed fifth-seeded Temple 78-65 as a three-point ‘dog Friday, then blistered No. 4 seed Wisconsin 87-69 getting 4½ points Sunday. Cornell has now win nine in a row (5-4 ATS) and 17 of its last 18 since losing by just five points at then-No. 1 Kansas on Jan. 6.
Kentucky, the SEC regular-season and tourney champ, has won seven in a row (4-3 ATS), including five straight on neutral floors (3-2 ATS). The Wildcats easily won and covered in their first two Tournament tilts, pounding East Tennessee State 100-71 laying 18½ points Thursday, then drubbing No. 8 seed Wake Forest 90-60 giving 9½ points Saturday. John Calipari’s troops average 80.1 ppg overall (ninth nationally) on 48.4 percent shooting, while allowing 65.3 ppg with the nation’s fourth-stingiest field-goal defense (37.9 percent).
Cornell has won three straight Ivy League titles to get the automatic Big Dance bid, but prior to last weekend’s two upsets, the Big Red had been 0-5 all-time in this event. Kentucky, meanwhile, has a huge Big Dance resume, playing in this event for the 51st time, advancing to 13 Final Fours and winning seven national championships. The Wildcats are 102-45 SU in the Tournament, but have reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005, when they beat Utah 62-52 as a 4½-point favorite.
Both teams have dominated at neutral venues, with Cornell going 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and Kentucky posting an 8-0 mark (5-3 ATS). The Big Red outscored opponents by 10.9 ppg in those six wins (78.7-67.8) and shot 50.5 percent from the field, while the Wildcats won by an average of 16.3 ppg (77.8-61.5) and outshot opponents by a 49.3 percent to 35.5 percent margin.
The Big Red are on pointspread tears of 4-0 overall, 36-15 in non-conference play, 5-1 at neutral sites, 38-17-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a neutral-site pup, 7-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-2 after a spread-cover.
The Wildcats are in ATS ruts of 1-4 following a SU win of more than 20 points and 8-17 following a spread-cover, but are also on ATS upticks of 5-2 in the Tournament, 5-0 as a favorite in the tourney and 5-1 in non-conference action (4-0 last four).
The Big Red are on “under” runs of 18-10 overall and 12-6-2 as an underdog, but they went over the total in both games last week and also sport “over” trends of 4-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 outside the Ivy League and 5-2-1 on neutral courts. Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 in the Tournament (4-0 last four) and 13-5 as a tourney chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Dallas (47-24, 29-41-1) at Portland (42-29, 37-32-2 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers shoot for their ninth win in their last 11 games when they welcome the Mavericks to the Rose Garden.
Dallas had followed up a 13-game winning streak by dropping two straight and three of four before beating the Clippers 106-96 at home Tuesday, narrowly cashing as a 9½-point favorite. Jason Kid led the charge with 26 points 12 assists and six rebounds. The spread-cover snapped a five-game ATS skid and was just the second time in their last six games the Mavericks reached triple digits on the scoreboard.
Portland hasn’t played since Sunday, went it fell in Phoenix 93-87, pushing as a six-point pup. Guards Brandon Roy and Andre Miller combined for 55 points, 11 rebound and 11 assists, but neither had a great game from the field, shooting a combined 15-for-45. The Blazers had won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) prior to Sunday, and they enter tonight riding a four-game winning streak at home (2-2 ATS).
The road team has won three straight in this series and four of the last five, cashing in all four victories. Portland went into Dallas twice this season and came out with close wins, an 85-81 triumph back in December as a 5½-point ‘dog and a 114-112 overtime victory on Jan. 30 as an 8½-point underdog. Still, the Mavericks have had recent success in the Rose Garden, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Portland.
Dallas is on ATS runs of 4-0 as an underdog and 5-1 on the road, but otherwise is on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall, 5-22 on Thursdays, 5-15-1 after a spread-cover, 5-13-1 against Western Conference teams and 7-18-1 after getting a day off. The Blazers have cashed in four straight against Southwest Division teams and 10 of 14 after a straight-up loss, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road record and 1-4 as a chalk of less than five points.
For the Mavericks, the over has been the play lately, including 10-4 overall, 7-1 after a day off, 6-1 against Western Conference teams and 14-6 against teams with a winning record. Portland has topped the total in five of seven against Western Conference foes and six of seven against Southwest Division teams, but it is on “under” runs of 5-1 at home, 14-5 against teams with a winning record and 27-11-1 after getting three or more days off.
Finally, the under has cashed in 14 of the last 20 Blazers-Mavericks meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
DUNKEL INDEX
Miami at Chicago
The Bulls look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Chicago is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1)
Game 801-802: Miami at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.138; Chicago 120.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 190
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1); Over
Game 803-804: LA Clippers at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 109.461; Houston 1114.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 5; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+6 1/2); Over
Game 805-806: Dallas at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.415; Portland 121.179
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3; 192
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over
NCAAB
Xavier vs. Kansas State
The Wildcats look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games as a neutral site favorite. Kansas State is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-4 1/2)
Game 807-808: Cornell vs. Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 67.998; Kentucky 74.452
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+9 1/2)
Game 809-810: Washington vs. West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 71.491; West Virginia 73.237
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 5
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5)
Game 811-812: Butler vs. Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 66.868; Syracuse 73.639
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 7
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-6 1/2)
Game 813-814: Xavier vs. Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 68.021; Kansas State 74.719
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-4 1/2)
Game 815-816: Pacific at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 57.851; Appalachian State 63.027
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 5
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-3)
NHL
Los Angeles at St. Louis
The Blues look to build on their 10-4 record in the last 14 meeting between the two teams in St. Louis. St. Louis is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110)
Game 51-52: Calgary at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.151; NY Islanders 10.562
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-140); Under
Game 53-54: Minnesota at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 9.990; Philadelphia 11.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Under
Game 55-56: Chicago at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.049; Columbus 11.849
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Under
Game 57-58: Toronto at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.046; Atlanta 11.368
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Under
Game 59-60: Washington at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.146; Carolina 12.050
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Over
Game 61-62: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.308; Boston 10.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+170); Under
Game 63-64: NY Rangers at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.823; New Jersey 11.736
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+170); Over
Game 65-66: Florida at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.928; Montreal 11.016
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+155); Under
Game 67-68: Los Angeles at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.029; St. Louis 12.627
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over
Game 69-70: Phoenix at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.886; Nashville 12.448
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-135); Under
Game 71-72: Dallas at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.752; San Jose 10.949
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+200); Under
James Patrick Sports
Purdue vs. Duke
The Blue Devils are playing the best defense in the NCAA Tournament to date allowing just (48) points per game and since Boilermaker star Robbie Hummel's injury Purdue is averaging just (60.9) points per game. Big Game James Patrick's selection in Friday NCAA Tournament action is Purdue - Duke Under the Total in Sweet Sixteen action.
MTi Sports
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
The Heat are 0-12 ATS (-10.5 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers and the Bulls are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. Also, the Bulls are 5-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) when seeking revenge for a loss in which fewer than 40% of their baskets were assisted and 4-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) This season after a home win in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent. Consider Chicago.
Craig Trapp
Xavier vs. Kansas State
Play: Xavier +5
Make sure you search around to find this number as its out their. This one is going to be much closer than the first match early in the season. Since that game XU has started playing a much smaller lineup and it has been super successful. Don't forget that game was at K State where they are almost unbeatable. Jordan Crawford is the best player on the court and he will go for 25 plus again keeping Xavier close all game. K State played great the first two games but both of those games were match up nightmares for their opponents. Today XU will not have that problem and will show why they are so good ATS 7-3 L10!
BIG AL
Miami @ Chicago
Pick: Chicago -1
The Bulls have been extremely streaky this entire season, and right now, they are on an ATS hot streak, having covered the spread in five straight games. Chicago has also won its last two straight-up, with double-digit victories over Philly and Houston. And Vinny Del Negro's men play tonight with revenge from a 13-points loss at Miami two weeks ago. I think they'll avenge that defeat, as Chicago is a terrific 22-12 ATS off a pointspread win, while Miami is a poor 38-58 off a straight-up win over the past three seasons. The Bulls are 19-12-1 ATS vs. the Heat at home over the past 14 seasons, including a 95-91 SU/ATS win earlier this season. Take the Bulls.
MATT FARGO
L.A. Clippers @ Houston
PICK: L.A. Clippers +6.5
Apparently the linesmakers still think Houston is a very solid team. The Rockets are two games over .500 on the season which is good but they are in a bad place right now and I don’t see it getting better tonight, no matter who the opponent might be. They are coming off back-to-back double-digit losses and even though both came on the road, they do not have a superior home court advantage like in past years. Making matters worse, this team has gotten extremely thin. Houston is coming off a 10-point loss at Chicago on Monday and then an 18-point loss last night in Oklahoma City but other losses which are more important continue to pile up. A thin team to begin with, the Rockets lost three more players to injury as Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill and Kyle Lowry are all on the shelf with Lowry being the only semi-healthy body of the bunch. They join Shane Battier on the bench, who is out for about two weeks following a knee injury and the depth of the team is becoming a real problem. “It’s huge,” Rockets coach Rick Adelman said. “We’re not a deep team to begin with. Jared’s been playing well defensively, Jordan’s been doing a nice job.” The Rockets are still mathematically in the chase for a playoff spot as they trail Portland by five and a half games but time is running out. The Clippers have been on a freefall of their own but the schedule has been brutal. Since winning three straight games at the end of February, Los Angeles has gone 2-12 in the 14 games since but of those games, 10 came against teams currently sitting in playoff spots. Of those 10, seven were on the road so it does not come as much of a surprise that the Clippers went 0-7 in those games. Two nights ago, the Clippers were getting 9.5 points in Dallas and now they are getting 6.5 points in Houston. The Rockets are nowhere close to the same team as the Mavericks yet the linesmakers have put this line at one possession less than the last game which is way off the mark. Houston has won the first two meetings this season, both coming in December, but both of those were when the Rockets were playing much better and still solidly in the hunt for the playoffs. The Clippers fall into a solid contrarian revenge situation as well. Play on road teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 revenging a road loss, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 88-49 ATS (64.2 percent) over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 5-13 ATS playing with no rest and that includes a 3-9 ATS mark when that first game was played on the road. 3* Los Angeles Clippers
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS / HOUSTON ROCKETS
TAKE UNDER
Houston has struggled offensively of late because they have been shorthanded and lack height up front. Shane Battier sprained his left knee in Houston's victory over New York on Sunday and is out at least 10 days. 6-foot-6 Chuck Hayes is at center, scoring just 88 and 87 points in two of the last four games. The Rockets are playing their 4th game in 5 nights here, plus the second of a back to back situation (at Oklahoma City last night). LA is on a 2-0 run under the total, averaging 93.5 points the last two games. Can't see much scoring in this one; Play the LA Clippers/Rockets Under the total.
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on Kansas State. There's nothing better than having some market research to back your selection... and what better way to prove your point than when these two have already played and Kansas State wiped the floor with them? Xavier did a nice job getting to the Sweet 16, and I have to say I was really impressed at the way they disposed of Pitt in the second round. But Pitt is not Kansas State, and it's going to take more than 20+ points from Jordan Crawford to get the best of these talented Wildcats tonight. And although I understand Xavier has revenge on their minds, it's much easier to get revenge on your own home floor... and last I checked Xavier isn't playing in Ohio tonight. Kansas State is probably a better team now than they were the first time these two hooked up, and they are getting great guard play from Jacob Pullen and Dennis Clemente right now. Kansas State will also probably have a slight advantage on the boards, which should limit Xavier's second-chance points. I like the Wildcats to win and cover this number tonight.
3♦ KANSAS STATE
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Clippers at HOUSTON (-6')
I nailed a FREE winner for you on Wednesday as Rhode Island went to Virginia Tech and got the outright winner, improving my comp play run to 73-45-3. Tonight I have an NBA winner for you as I lay the chalk with the Rockets at home against the Clippers.
Houston has dominated the Clippers over the last few years, just like most teams, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and cashing in eight of those 10. The Rockets have scored two easy wins this season over Los Angeles, including a 108-99 home win on Dec. 22, cashing as an 8 ½-point favorite and winning 102-85 in Los Angeles as a 2 ½-point chalk.
The Clippers come into this one having lost 10 of their last 11 (2-9 ATS), including Tuesday’s 106-96 loss in Dallas as a 9 ½-point ‘dog. This team is a disaster on the highway at 7-29 (13-23 ATS). They allow 104.9 points a game on the road while managing just 95.3 points.
Houston has averaged 103.5 at home and had won three straight in front of the home fans before a Friday loss to the Celtics, 94-87 as a 1 ½-point underdog. The Rockets lost in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night, but expect their confidence to be brimming over when they see the Clippers on the court. They know how much they dominate Los Angeles in this head-to-head matchup.
The Clippers are on ATS skids of 18-42 on the road, 3-11 against winning teams, 2-9 overall and 1-5 on Thursdays. Houston is 30-10-3 ATS on Thursdays.
I like the young roster the Rockets are going with and expect them to win this one by 12. Play Houston.
2♦ HOUSTON
Karl Garrett
Cornell (+8') vs. KENTUCKY - at Syracuse, NY
For Thursday, call me crazy, but I think this senior-laden Cornell team can give the # 1 Kentucky Wildcats a definite scare.
Cornell has been about as solid as they come ALL year long, and they have obviously been lights-out in the Big Dance thus far.
The Big Red do sport a 5-0 spread mark this season when catching single-digits, and with their perimeter game being as good as they come, Coach Donahue's team has the capability of finding the back-door against the Wildcats tonight.
In the end, Kentucky probably has too much for the Ivy League rep, but with this game being played so close to Cornell's campus, every minute that passes with the dog in the hunt will start to line up the crowd on their side.
Going to grab the points and look for Big Red to hang with Big Blue.
2♦ CORNELL
Chuck O'Brien
Cornell vs. Kentucky, at Syracuse, N.Y.
Take Cornell-Kentucky OVER the total for Thursday’s free play in the Big Dance.
Cornell has scored 95, 79, 78 and 87 points in its last four games, which wouldn’t be THAT impressive except for the fact the last two point totals came in last week’s Tournament victories … against Temple and Wisconsin … two teams that rank fourth and third in the nation in scoring defense, giving up less than 57 ppg!
Even more ridiculous than those scoring outputs was the fact the Big Red shot a combined 60-for-102 from the field – that’s 58.9 percent! Again, that was against two of the best defensive teams in the country.
Kentucky’s offense is clicking in a big way, too. The Wildcats won five straight games coming into the Tournament, scoring 80, 74, 73, 74 and 75 points, then they hanged 100 on East Tennessee State last Thursday and came back two days later with a 90-point effort against Wake Forest.
Over their last five games, Cornell and Kentucky are shooting 56.8 percent and 52.1 percent respectively, and at neutral venues this year, the Big Red are shooting 50.5 percent and the ‘Cats are shooting 49.3 percent.
The over is 5-2 in Cornell’s last seven non-conference games and 5-2-1 in its last eight neutral-site contests, while Kentucky has topped the total in four of five overall, four straight Tournament games, four of five at neutral sites and 13 of 18 when laying points in the Big Dance.
3♦ OVER
Brett Atkins
Scored the easy NBA winner on Tuesday right here in this free spot, as the Lakers destroyed the Spurs in the fourth quarter and got the outright win in San Antonio. Tonight's NBA winner comes from Houston as I lay the chalk with the Rockets hosting the Clippers.
Houston has crushed the Clippers for a few years now, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and getting the win at the Vegas betting window in eight of those 10 contests.
This season, the Rockets have gotten two easy winners against Los Angeles, including a Dec. 22 win at home, 108-99 as 8 1/2-point favorites and then crushing the Clippers in Los Angeles 102-85 as a 2 1/2-point favorite.
The Clippers have been a disaster lately, losing 10 of their last 11 (2-9 ATS), including Tuesday's 106-96 defeat in Dallas on Tuesday. Los Angeles is just 7-29 on the road this season, going 13-23 ATS.
The Rockets are 30-10-3 ATS on Thursdays and come in to this one with a better team up and down the roster. Lay the chalk at home and play Houston.
4♦ HOUSTON
Joel Tyson
Time to lay the points this Thursday with Kansas State over Xavier.
Great run for the Atlantic 10 Musketeers, but we have already seen this matchup once this season back in December, and the Musketeers were manhandled, 71-56.
True, that meeting was in Manhattan, but I just don't see much changing in Salt Lake City on Thursday.
Jacob Pullen leads his troops to the Elite 8.
Lay it with K-State.
4♦ KANSAS STATE
Jeff Benton
That’s five straight free-play winners as the Hawks got it done versus the Magic on Wednesday. So in addition to nailing the last five in a row, I’m now on runs of 44-22-2, 34-16-2 and 25-12-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
Let’s make it six in a row Thursday by playing Butler plus the points against Syracuse in Sweet 16 Tournament action. The Orange are a No. 1 seed for a reason: They’re good – real good. Still, it’s hard to pass up taking these kind of points with Butler, which has the nation’s longest active winning streak (22 in a row) and whose 30-4 record is identical to that of Syracuse. Of the Bulldogs’ four losses, one was by 10 points (at UAB), one by nine points (Minnesota), one by seven points (Georgetown) and one by a single point Clemson), so really they haven’t been blown out all year.
And get this: When the season started, one of these teams was ranked 11th in the country. The other was unranked. Guess which was which? In fact, Syracuse didn’t jump into the Top 25 until four games into the season.
Butler has a strong Tournament pedigree (four straight Big Dance trips; third Sweet 16 appearance since 2003), and the Bulldogs have been a strong underdog in recent years (21-7 ATS last 28 catching points, 12-5 ATS last 17 as a pup of less than seven points).
This smells like one of those March Madness classics, where the last team with the ball wins – and if that team ends up being Butler, I really wouldn’t be surprised at all.
6♦ BUTLER