Chuck O'Brien
Take Cornell-Kentucky OVER the total for Thursday’s free play in the Big Dance.
Cornell has scored 95, 79, 78 and 87 points in its last four games, which wouldn’t be THAT impressive except for the fact the last two point totals came in last week’s Tournament victories … against Temple and Wisconsin … two teams that rank fourth and third in the nation in scoring defense, giving up less than 57 ppg!
Even more ridiculous than those scoring outputs was the fact the Big Red shot a combined 60-for-102 from the field – that’s 58.9 percent! Again, that was against two of the best defensive teams in the country.
Kentucky’s offense is clicking in a big way, too. The Wildcats won five straight games coming into the Tournament, scoring 80, 74, 73, 74 and 75 points, then they hanged 100 on East Tennessee State last Thursday and came back two days later with a 90-point effort against Wake Forest.
Over their last five games, Cornell and Kentucky are shooting 56.8 percent and 52.1 percent respectively, and at neutral venues this year, the Big Red are shooting 50.5 percent and the ‘Cats are shooting 49.3 percent.
The over is 5-2 in Cornell’s last seven non-conference games and 5-2-1 in its last eight neutral-site contests, while Kentucky has topped the total in four of five overall, four straight Tournament games, four of five at neutral sites and 13 of 18 when laying points in the Big Dance.
3♦ Cornell-Kentucky OVER
CAJUN SPORTS
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Selection: Chicago Bulls -1
The Chicago Bulls play host to the Miami Heat on Thursday night as the frontend of a TNT double-header with tipoff set for 8:05PM Eastern Time. Chicago still has a shot at making the playoffs sitting 2.5 games back with a dozen remaining on their schedule. Tonight’s contest would certainly be a great place to start a run for the playoffs. The return of Derrick Rose helped halt their recent ten game losing streak and should propel them to victory tonight. This series has been dominated by the host with the Bulls winning nine of the last eleven straight up and eleven of fourteen against the spread when the Heat come calling in the Second City. Both teams enter tonight’s contest off back-to-back wins in their two previous outings but the Bulls are on a point spread covering run of five straight and they are also 9-3 ATS coming off a SU win of ten or more points in their last game. The line has opened with the Bulls minus 1 and our numbers favor the host in this game well beyond a single point so lay the short price as Chicago closes their playoff gap and continues their solid play in this series.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Chicago Bulls 96 Miami Heat 88
Tom Freese
Cornell vs Kentucky
Cornell is 29-4 this year. Forward Ryan Wittman scores 17.8 points a game while shooting 43% from behind the. Guard Louis Dale scores 12.6 points a game. Center Jeff Foote 12.4 points and 8.1 rebounds a game. Guard Chris Wroblewski scores 9 points a game. Cornell scores 75.8 points a game. The Big Red are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 games as underdogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points. Kentucky is 34-2 this year. Guard John Wall scores 16.8 points and dishes out 6.5 assists a game. Forward De Marcus Cousins scores 15.1 points and 10 rebounds a game. Forward Patrick Patterson scores 14.2 points and 7.2 rebounds a game. Guard Eric Bledsoe scores 11.4 points a game while shooting 40.5% from behind the arc. The Wildcats score 80.3 points a game. Kentucky is 5-0 ATS their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Non-Conference games. PLAY ON KENTUCKY -
VEGAS EXPERTS
Butler at Syracuse
The Cuse has looked very impressive through the first two rounds while Butler was quite fortunate to get past 13 seed Murray State. The Orange shoot better than 50% from the field while owning the nation's top field goal defense. They are 6-0 ATS after holding their three previous opponents to under 50% shooting. They are also 11-3 ATS in games decided on a neutral court + 12-5 ATS off a win by 15 or more.
Play on: Syracuse
SEAN MURPHY
Washington @ West Virginia
PICK: Washington +4
I was on Washington in each of its first two NCAA Tournament victories, cashing 8* and 9* tickets. I see no reason to jump ship on Thursday, as we're talking about a Huskies team that hasn't lost a game since February 18th. You would have to go back to February 11th to find the last time they lost a game by more than three points.
West Virginia also enters this game red hot, winners of eight games in a row. The Mountaineers haven't lost a game since February 22nd. However, as we saw during the Big East Tournament, they have a tendency to get involved in close games. All three of their Big East tourney wins came by three points or less, despite the fact that they lead all three by double-digits at one point or another.
The Mountaineers win over Missouri last Sunday flew under the radar, due in large part to the wild finishes elsewhere. They did manage to win that game by nine points, covering the six-point spread, however they once again struggled to knock down shots, relying heavily on their defense to eventually put the Tigers away. That lack of offensive execution could certainly cost them against a Huskies team that is brimming with confidence right now.
The fact that this is a Pac-10 vs. Big East matchup is key as well. The Pac-10 was knocked all season, and up until Selection Sunday, it was uncertain whether the conference would even send two teams to the NCAA Tournament. Washington wasn't a lock until it upset Cal in the conference championship.
The Big East is largely considered the toughest conference in college basketball, yet we've seen several of its members make early exits in this tournament. I won't knock West Virginia, because they've obviously proven themselves time and time again, particularly down the stretch. However, it's worth noting that we have an undervalued vs. an overvalued conference in this matchup.
Washington is 8-1 ATS over its last nine games overall while West Virginia checks in at 4-5 ATS over that same stretch. The Huskies give the Mountaineers a serious run in this one. I'll take my chances with the underdog. Take Washington.
Tony George
Cornell vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -8
Oh the Cinderella story. So Hyped in the NCAA Tourney every year, and the fairy tale ends tonight for Cornell. Kentucky has played well, dominated in most cases, and are the #1 seed in this bracket playing a #12 seed, they should be favored 8 points.
You live by the 3 point shot, and you die by the 3 point shot. That is a true statement. I doubt seriously if Cornell can shoot 61% from the floor overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 81% from the free throw line, and out rebound their opponent by 7 boards tonight like they did against an unprepared Wisconsin team in round 2 of the tourney.
The Wildcats are big, athletic, well coached, whom we all know Calipari has tourney experince right into the title game, and Wall is one of the best players on the planet as a freshman. Kentucky is a school that just beat an ACC team in the last round by 30 points, and never let off the throttle. I think they can handle an Ivy Leauge school who is taking a serious step up in class tonight. They will own the paint in this game and defend the perimeter well.
At days end Cornell has some excellent 3 point shooters and are well coached, but TALENT wins big games, as well as experience at head coach, Kentucky by 14.
JR O'Donnell
Washington vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -4
Jr O backing the Neers tonight as we feel that the Wash Huskies will be the public darlings tonight with the run and gun style, Not Jr O's camp, The Neers own huge edges in the categories that count, defense, rebounding and turnovers. Jr O's camp has Mounties hounding the Huskies and they will keep the Huskies in the high 50's to 60's tonight, Another Huge gut play here as Huggins crew is 10-2- 1 the last 13 tourney games. The lines are razor sharp boys & we have 2 great teams humming right now!, Washington's love has comes from Wvu's Truck Bryant's injury and Mazzilla will do the job with his experience and floor leadership!!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Butler/Syracuse UNDER 138.5
Right away I like the fact that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (SYRACUSE), an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG), against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after 15+ games, and after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more, are 35-14 since 1997. And we are only seeing an average of 130.6 points scored in these spots. Butler knows it must take the air out of the ball to hang with Syracuse tonight. Expect a slow pace in this one to result in the Under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers -3
The Blazers have been rolling, but they enter tonight's game off a loss so they will be very motivated to get back in the win column. Plus, the Blazers will be going after every game hard the rest of the way to improve their playoff seeding so they can avoid the Lakers in the first round. Dallas is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and 0-8 ATS when revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite of 7 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Portland has had Dallas' number with a pair of wins in Dallas already this season and it should be able to hold serve at home tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Washington/West Virginia UNDER 141
System Play: Plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points, WVU in this case, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games, against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 26-7 since 1997, 16-4 the last 5 seasons and 13-2 the last 3 seasons. We are only seeing 135.3 total points scored in these games on average. West Virginia's defense has really tightened its screws, holding its last 5 opponents below 60 points. The Mountaineers have also held 5 of their last 6 opponents to below 40% shooting from the field. WVU's defense has even succeeded against good shooting teams this season. In fact, WVU is 6-0 Under when playing away from home against good shooting teams, like Washington, who make 45% or more of their shots, after 15+ games this season. Take the Under.
Jimmy the Moose
Calgary Flames vs. New York Islanders
Play: Calgary Flames -140
The Flames are in a battle to make the playoffs and this is a game that the whole teams knows is a must win. Calgary has played a lot better of late and come into this one having won 3 of their last 4 and 7 of their last 10 overall. In their last 9 games played with 1-day rest between action the Flames are 9-1.
The Islanders played the Rangers last night and lost 5-0. New York has lost 16 of their last 22 overall and tonight they face a Flames team they struggle against. The Islanders are 6-24 in their last 30 games played with 0 days to rest between games. In their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7-days or more the Islanders are 1-4.
The Flames have won 6 of their last 7 trips to Long Island. In the last 13 meetings between the clubs Calgary is 10-3. Look for the Flames to easily take another one tonight.
Freddy Wills
Butler vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -6
The Orangemen will be without their big man down low, but the way Wesley Johnson has played I don't think it matters. Butler was lucky to get by the past round and for the tournament they really haven't played that great in my opinion shooting just 41% from the field. To beat Syracuse you have to shoot over 50%. That has been true all 5 times Syracuse lost. Butler faced a Big East team in Georgetown and played them well earlier in the season losing on neutral court by 7. Butler however shot just 31.1% and was -14 rebounds. Those are two factors that will come into play again here today as Syracuse a very good rebounding team should have a major advantage on the boards over Butler especially if Butler's Matt Howard gets into foul trouble. Hayward will have to get going early to open things up and Syracuse has one of the better perimeter defenses. I just feel this is Syracuse's game. The reason that's it's not a POD is that the line opened up at 7.5 and continues to drop and I'll sit at 6 and be happy.
EZWINNERS
Cornell Big Red +8.5
This has to be one of the most intriguing Sweet 16 match ups in recent years as we have two teams that are totally different in style of play. I expect Cornell to control the tempo of the game and keep this one close all the way. The Big Red are a solid defensive team and I expect them to come out in a zone and force Kentucky to try to score from the perimeter. Cornell shoots 48% from the floor and 44% from behind the three point line so if they control the tempo of this game like I think they will they will be in it all the way with maybe another chance to pull off the upset. Cornell has gotten this far in the tournament because of the talent and experience in their lineup. The Big Red plays very consistent ball and they do not make many mistakes. Kentucky has yet to be tested in this tournament and I expect the Big Red to do just that in this game. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO –1½ over Miami
The Bulls have been about the streakiest team in the league this season, as they have numerous losing streaks but they also have some very significant winning streaks. They also have to be feeling very fortunate to be in a position to make the playoffs after a recent 10 game losing streak that followed a stretch in which they won seven of eight. The good news is that they’ve won two in a row and they’re just two games back of the Raps for the final playoff spot, thus making this contest a crucial one. Miami is very beatable because of its propensity for not showing up and after two wins in a row over Charlotte and New Jersey and with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow, this looks like one of those games. The Bulls should dominate the boards in this one, they also have a deeper bench than the Heat and most of all they have momentum again after wins over Houston and Philly. The Bulls also welcomed back Joakim Noah last game and he’s a huge part of that team. When he plays the Bulls are a whole lot better and it’s no coincidence the Bulls recent wins coincided with his return. Big game for the Bulls tonight; big game for Miami tomorrow night. Play: Chicago –1½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Kentucky –8 over Cornell
Give a tremendous amount of credit to the Big Red for being the first Ivy team since ’97 to make the sweet sixteen. They legitimately beat two very good teams in Temple and Wisconsin, taking advantage of their walk it up offense while draining close to 45% of their three’s in the process. That number isn’t a fluke, the Big Red finished the regular season at 43.9% from three, placing them first overall in all of D-1 basketball. Throw away a fluke loss to Pennsylvania in Ivy League play and the result is that Cornell has lost three games all season: at home to Seton Hall and on the road to Syracuse and Kansas. The common characteristic those teams share is a high paced, incredibly efficient offense. We all know the NBA studs Kentucky has at this point but I’m not sure anybody understands exactly how athletic this team really is. For starters, the Wildcats led the nation in block shots percentage, swatting away an eye popping 17.8% of all attempts. Secondly, they hit the offensive glass with amazing success, scooping up 40.3% of all misses even while shooting 54.5% from two-point land. That is perhaps my favorite statistic of all and that’s before even mentioning that they held opponents to 41% from two and 31% from three. Any way you slice it, this Kentucky team is without a doubt the most athletic team in the nation and it’s the main reason why I predict they will blow out the Big Red. Cornell’s losses have come to athletically superior teams that can score in waves and defend like crazy, exactly the traits of this Wildcat team. In Saturdays tilt versus Wake Forest, Kentucky had runs of 18-4 to close the first half, 13-5 to open the second half, and 9-2 to end the game. I love a Cinderella as much as the next guy, but Cornell couldn’t have drawn a worse opponent to continue their run. Kentucky will be all over these guys early and I would be absolutely shocked if Cornell stayed in this game for 40 minutes. Kentucky may be a “public” play but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong one. Play: Kentucky –8 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Florida +1.61 over MONTREAL
The Canadiens played last night in Buffalo and although they picked up a point they had a 2-0 lead with two minutes to go in the game, blew that and eventually lost in a shootout. That had to take some steam out of them but even more significant is that they’re just way overpriced here. The Habs have won a lot of games this year when in fact they shouldn’t have. They’ve won with great goaltending and an efficient power-play but have been outplayed in many of those games. The Canadiens are not good enough or trustworthy enough to be laying this much juice and although they can win, the value here is on the visitors. Florida is coming off a 4-1 win in Toronto and a 5-2 win over Tampa. Its last three losses were to Washington, Buffalo and Phoenix and the lost to the Coyotes came in OT. Prior to that they beat the Sharks and Philly and they’ve picked up points in seven of its last 10 games. They continue to be the most undervalued team in the business and whomever is fighting for a playoff spot would much rather not play them. The Panthers are good, they’re dangerous as hell and absolutely have a great shot of winning here. Play: Florida +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
Phoenix +1.15 over NASHVILLE
Both these teams are very tough to beat but ask any team going to the playoffs who they would rather avoid and all of them would pick the Coyotes. Phoenix is just so tough in every aspect of the game. They give up very little and now they’re scoring goals. During its recent eight game winning streak the Coyotes scored four or more in five of those games. They have a great chance to leapfrog over the Sharks for first in the division, as they sit just a single point behind San Jose. When you can get a tag on this squad when they’re playing a team that’s not superior to them, take it, for the Coyotes always have a great chance to win. Play: Phoenix +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.70 over PHILADELPHIA
Don’t look now but the Flyers are another team that is hanging on for dear life and could fall into eighth spot tonight should they lose here and the Bruins beat the Lightning. If that comes to pass and the Thrashers beat the Leafs, the Flyers would then be just two points ahead of Atlanta for the last playoff spot. Boston and Atlanta winning tonight is extremely likely. The Flyers are in a bad funk and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Once again they’re not scoring goals and that makes them a huge risk as a big favorite. The Flyers have lost five of its last six and over that span they’ve been outscored 19-10. That’s 10 lousy goals in its last six games and over its last three games they’ve scored three times. This is a team that’s feeling the pinch right now and they’re not responding well. Philly’s defense is too slow and the blueprint for beating them is to jump on its defense quickly and force turnovers or penalties and the Flyers sure take a lot of those. The Wild are capable of following that, plus, these non-playoff teams in the spoiler roll are very dangerous indeed. They have no pressure on them whatsoever and they just love to make life miserable for those fighting for a spot. The Flyers are about as unappealing a favorite right now as anyone. Play: Minnesota +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
Great Lakes Sports
Butler vs Syracuse
Play: Syracuse
The Syracuse Orange are on a roll going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and the Syracuse Orange is an outstanding 5-1 ATS when playing in all neutral court games this year. The Syracuse Orange is also 9-2 ATS after a non-conference game this year, and they are a stellar 6-1 ATS when playing in all tournament games this year. We look for the Syracuse Orange to grab the NCAA tournament ATS Win&Cover tonight.