Nelly
LA Clippers + over Houston
Trusting the Clippers on the road certainly has a lot of risk but this is a team that has shown the capability to surprise. The Clippers have lost the last eleven road games but consider that all but two of those teams were playoff squads including some of the truly elite teams in the league. Houston is the team in a difficult spot, coming off three straight road games including a loss in Oklahoma City last night. The Clippers have had an extra day between games and Houston is 5-13 ATS on the season without an off day before a game. Houston is just 20-15 S/U at home this season and 5-15 ATS in the last 20 home games as there has been no real advantage at home. The Rockets have also been one of the worst overall ATS teams in the league over the past few months riding a 12-25 ATS streak. Houston is a lousy defensive team, allowing 104 points per game over the last five games and the Clippers should be able to take advantage of this match-up for an upset or a narrow loss within this inflated spread.
Jimmy Moore
N Y Rangers @ New Jersey
Pick: New York +170
What a nice underdog price on the Rangers here. They are desperate for their playoff lives and need a win badly. The Devils are solidly in the playoffs so their intensity level may be off a big. The Rangers have had success in Jersey winning 8 of the last 12 games played there.
Wunderdog
Cornell vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -8½
The Cornell Big Red ended an Ivy League NCAA Tournament winless streak that dates back to the late 90s. Cornell won in impressive fashion vs. Wisconsin, and by far played their best game of the season. The Big Red knocked down 53% from beyond the arc, and shot over 61% for the game. It is unlikely for a repeat performance. The Wildcats are simply the most athletic, and talented team in the tournament. If anyone thought their talented freshman would wilt under the pressure of the tournament, they were wrong as Kentucky shot 60% themselves vs. Wake Forest and a repeat here means a blowout. Cornell is just 1-6-1 ATS as a 7-12.5 dog, while the Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five as a tourney favorite. I'll go with Kentucky in this one.
LT Profits
Heat vs Bulls
The Heat are averaging less than 92 points over the last five games, and we do not expect any improvement vs. a Bulls defense that has clamped down in a playoff push. Go Under.
The Under is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls, and we are looking for more of the same tonight.
The Under is 2-1-1 in the last four Heat games, but consider that only 188 points were scored in the Push, and the Over needed overtime in a game that was exactly at this posted total of 190 at the end of regulation. Despite having one of the leading scorers in the NBA in Dwayne Wade, Miami is still averaging a dismal 91.6 points over their last five games while hitting on only 43.9 percent of their field goal attempts.
In fact, the Under is also 7-1-2 in the last 10 Miami road games, and for the entire season, the Heat Under is 19-13-2, 59.4 percent away from home with an average combined score of 192.0 points. While that average is a bucket higher than this total, you can probably shave several points off if it given the current Miami offensive form.
As for the Bulls, they have gone Under in three straight games with the most points produced in any of those contests being just 186. Remember that Chicago is still two games back of Toronto for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, and the Bulls have tightened up their defense lately as they make their playoff push, which is a very positive sign. They have held their last three opponents to an average of 88.0 points on a microscopic 38.2 percent shooting.
Finally, the first meeting between these clubs here in Chicago this season saw 186 points scored, and we feel that will be the absolute ceiling in the second visit by Miami to the Windy City tonight.
Pick: Heat / Bulls Under 190
THE PREZ
Florida vs Montreal
The Florida Panthers are longshots to make the playoffs this season as they currently sit seven points behind eighth place Boston in the East, but they are alive mathematically and have continued to play hard, and they offer nice value against the Montreal Canadiens in this spot.
The Panthers have won two straight including a nice 4-1 road win in Toronto on Tuesday, and they are a very respectable 15-18 3 on the road this season. They have tightened up their defense lately, allowing a total of only nine goals during regulation time in the last four games, while at the same time coming on offensively, scoring 13 goals over those same games. This seems like a nice spot to snap their three-game losing streak in Montreal, where they haven't won since 2007.
The Canadiens are in better shape, sitting in sixth place five points ahead of ninth place Atlanta, so they may not have the same sense of urgency as Florida here. In fact, the Habs have now lost three straight games while scoring a total of just four goals, and they have been a mediocre home team all year, going a modest 18-14-4 in Bell Centre. It does not help that they are playing with no rest after blowing a 2-0 third period lead in a 3-2 shootout loss in Buffalo last night.
All things considered, the Panthers have actually been playing better hockey in recent games and they have more at stake than Montreal does, giving Florida excellent value at this price.
Pick: Panthers +150
Roz Juarbe
Mavericks at Blazers
You don’t find the talented Mavs a dog very often. This team is locked in a duel with Denver for the No. 2 seed in the West, playing great basketball since the Big Trade. Dallas is 4-0 Su/ATS its last four times as a dog. Portland has been winning of late, but against some bad teams (Warriors, Kings, Raptors, Wizards and the Kings again). They face a real team here, just like the last game for them, a 93-87 loss to the Suns. Play the Dallas Mavericks.
Matt Rivers
Kansas State -4.5 vs Xavier
Xavier has really impressed me and the Musketeers are not going to get buried here but with that said the Kansas State guards are just going to be too good in the end.
Frank Martin very possibly may have the best backcourt in the entire country. Jacob Pullen is insanely great and Denis Clemente is a total stud himself. Throw in some quality bigs like Luis Colon and the young and talented Wally Judge and the Wildcats are a dangerous dangerous team for anybody to have to face right now.
I love how relentless Martin's boys are. They just do not stop coming at you. Falling behind 10-0 in that last game to BYU was almost meaningless as they just kept coming in waves and outclassed Jimmer Fredette and a pretty darn solid and experienced Cougar group with relative ease.
In Early December the Wildcats and Musketeers played and it was State that won going away 71-56. I don't take too much from that as that was then and this is now but looking back at the outer conference schedule and one can't help but be impressed with the way the 'Cats easily dispatched solid squads. Besides the win against the X-Men they pounded Dayton, UNLV and Alabama among others and in-conference had no issues at all on the road winning the bulk of their games in total burial fashion.
Xavier is a well coached and very solid team. They rarely get blown out and shouldn't here but K State is too good with their guards and after 40 minutes of hoopage will win this thing by about 10-12 points.
Vernon Croy
1* Kentucky
This pick falls into one of my top NCAAB systems and the Wildcats are the superior overall team here Thursday night. Cornell lives and dies by the 3 point shot so I look for Kentucky to defend the perimeter strong like they have done all season. Kentucky's opponents are shooting just 27.9% against them from beyond the arc on the road this season. If Kentucky takes away Cornell's 3 point shot then there is no way Cornell can keep up to this Kentucky team that has averaged 80.1 ppg this season. Even though this line dropped from 9.5 to 8 points I only like Kentucky more in this match-up tonight. Kentucky rolls big tonight.
Rocketman
Los Angeles @ St Louis
Play: Los Angeles -110
Los Angeles is 21-7 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. St Louis is 6-19 this year at home when the total is 5 1/2. St Louis is only 11-23 SU at home this year. Kings are 6-0 in their last 6 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Kings are 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Kings are 11-1 in their last 12 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Kings are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Kings are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Kings are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Kings are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Kings are 12-4 in their last 16 games as a favorite. Kings are 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Blues are 7-15 in their last 22 home games. Blues are 23-50 in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Blues are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blues are 4-11 in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest. Blues are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Blues are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Western Conference. We'll recommend a small play on Los Angeles tonight!
Stephen Nover
Miami at CHICAGO (-1')
This is a huge home matchup for Chicago, which is chasing Miami, Charlotte and Toronto for a playoff spot.
The Bulls are a much better team, particularly on defense, with center Joakim Noah back on the floor and Derrick Rose at 100 percent. This will be Noah's third game back from lingering plantar fasciitis that caused him to miss 10 games. Rose had been bothered by a sore left wrist. The Bulls' front-court also is back to full strength with Brad Miller and Taj Gibson expected to play.
Chicago is riding a two-game winning streak, its first consecutive victories since a month ago. Rose is averaging 25 points in those two games, victories against Philadelphia and Houston.
The Bulls have stepped up their defense holding their past three foes to an average of 88.3 points per game. Noah is averaging 11.1 rebounds. Only four players average more per game.
Miami has won eight of its last 11, but the Heat are not a good road team. This is just their second away game since March 9. Miami has won one road contest during the past month and that was against New Jersey, a team that very well could break the single-season mark for fewest wins.
Dwayne Wade traditionally struggles shooting at the United Center, which is notorious for its tough background on shooters. Wade is averaging 17.7 points in 12 games at the United Center, his lowest scoring average in any arena. The Heat are 1-4-1 ATS the past six times they've played at the United Center.
The Bulls have covered their past five games. Miami is 1-7 ATS the past eight times it has been an underdog of up to 4 1/2 points
3♦ BULLS
Michael Cannon
Washington vs. West Virginia, at Syracuse, NY
Take the under in the Washington-West Virginia game.
I expect a ton of defense here tonight.
West Virginia is going to be able to out-physical the Huskies in the paint and they contest every shot from the perimeter, so don’t expect a bunch of points from Washington.
On the other side, West Virginia will be without starting point guard Darryl Bryant, which means the Washington press will be that much more effective.
The under is 18-9 in Washington’s last 26 non-conference games while West Virginia is riding under streaks of 8-2 overall (6-0 last six), 5-0 as a chalk, 6-0 at neutral sites and 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Take the under as this one stays low.
3♦ UNDER
Pacific at APPALACHIAN STATE (-3)
Take Appalachian State as the small home chalk over Pacific.
I just love the job the Mountaineers have done this year. They came within a whisker of grabbing an automatic bid to the Tournament, but didn’t let that disappointment set them back. They crushed Harvard in the first round of the CIT, then followed it up with an 80-72 win at Marshall as a nine-point dog.
App State has won eight of its last nine and is 7-2 ATS during that stretch.
Lay the points with Appalachian State as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ APPALACHIAN STATE
Derek Mancini
Cornell (+8') vs Kentucky at Syracuse, NY
Now 5 straight Free Play winners with the Hawks outright over the Magic 86-84 last night! Back to the Mayhem, and the David vs Goliath match up everyone is talking about - Cornell vs Kentucky!
Perfect example of young talent vs grizzled experience, as Kentucky has 4 potential NBA 1st rounders playing tonigh. Cornell boasts none, but instead a slew of upperclassmen (8 seniors) who know their roles, and know them well!
Wildcats will eventually overwhelm the Big Red, but not before they grab the cash, thanks to several key match ups. Of course, no one can stick with John Wall, but gamblers are forgetting to factor in how hot these Big Red shooters are right now. Wittman and Dale are the key to this contest, because their shooting ability will open up the floor for Foote. Kentucky has not seen an offense running as smoothly as this Cornell attack has been all month.
Everyone loves to tout Cousins versus Foote, as if its a huge mismatch. Big mistake. Foote has an NBA size body, and a higher basketball IQ than most bigmen his age. Cousins has been known to get into foul trouble (115 personal fouls this season), and you bet your ass Foote will be going at him hard and heavy looking to draw contact - its a underclassmen vs upperclassmen, any way you look at it! Grab the points with Cornell tonight, as they prove that experience can sometimes trump talent in this David vs Goliath match up!
2♦ CORNELL
Chris Jordan
Cornell (+8') vs. Kentucky, at Syracuse
I'll step up and take Big Red in this one, why not?
While Kentucky has had virtually no competition in the first two rounds - blistering East Tennessee State and Wake Forest - Cornell has been battle-tested against Temple and Wisconsin.
And make note, they weren't garden variety wins for a 12-seed; Cornell beat the Owls by 13 and the Badgers by 18. Big Red came to play.
And with a week to prepare for a team that I am betting has this one locke up in their minds, I'll take the underdog.
Cornell made its presence known right off the bat, knocking off SEC-member Alabama in the season-opener. This is a team that proved itself during non-conference play - including a five-point setback at Kansas - and will once again shock some folks with a fast start.
Cornell jumped out to leads against Temple and Wisconsin last week, and will do the same in this one, igniting the Carrier Dome crowd, which should be infiltrated with plenty of Big Red fans from nearby-Ithaca. And believe me, they'll be there; when Kentucky took the court for a 50-minute practice session, and again when it left, the Wildcats were littered with more boos than cheers from the fans in attendance.
Louis Dale, Ryan Wittman, Jeff Foote ... they're all going to be key tonight. And something tells me they're all going to come through for the biggest game of their lives. But also keep your eyes on junior forward Adam Wire, who played an important role off the bench against Wisconsin, snatching six rebounds and a steal. He brings a lot of energy, the right physicality, dynamic leaping ability and the right ruggedness to counter Kentucky.
Is Cornell the better team? Absolutely not. But this is the Big Dance, and on any given night, there's always a better team than you might have thought.
Give me the underdog in this one.
2♦ CORNELL
Derek Mancini
Cornell (+8') vs Kentucky at Syracuse, NY
Now 5 straight Free Play winners with the Hawks outright over the Magic 86-84 last night! Back to the Mayhem, and the David vs Goliath match up everyone is talking about - Cornell vs Kentucky!
Perfect example of young talent vs grizzled experience, as Kentucky has 4 potential NBA 1st rounders playing tonigh. Cornell boasts none, but instead a slew of upperclassmen (8 seniors) who know their roles, and know them well!
Wildcats will eventually overwhelm the Big Red, but not before they grab the cash, thanks to several key match ups. Of course, no one can stick with John Wall, but gamblers are forgetting to factor in how hot these Big Red shooters are right now. Wittman and Dale are the key to this contest, because their shooting ability will open up the floor for Foote. Kentucky has not seen an offense running as smoothly as this Cornell attack has been all month.
Everyone loves to tout Cousins versus Foote, as if its a huge mismatch. Big mistake. Foote has an NBA size body, and a higher basketball IQ than most bigmen his age. Cousins has been known to get into foul trouble (115 personal fouls this season), and you bet your ass Foote will be going at him hard and heavy looking to draw contact - its a underclassmen vs upperclassmen, any way you look at it! Grab the points with Cornell tonight, as they prove that experience can sometimes trump talent in this David vs Goliath match up!
2♦ CORNELL
John Ryan
Phoenix Coyotes vs. Nashville Predators
Play: Nashville Predators -115
Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Nashville will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 48-13 making 30.3 units since 1996. Play against road dogs against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games and is a good team winning between 60% to 70% of their games and now playing a team winning between 51% to 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season. Nashville is a perfect 6-0 against the money line (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss where team got shut out this season. Take Nashville.