Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, March 26

GoodFella

North Carolina / Wisconsin Over 144

I have this total set at 146.5 so value for me at this number. I would play this up to 146 FWIW. This is the Badgers most potent offense in years & the Tarheels will clearly be looking to push pace here. The Heels should also get their fair share of 2nd chance points off of offensive rebounds IMO. I also expect the very effecient Badgers offense to have success vs a not very strong UNC defense. Add on the potential foul fest in the last 30 seconds to a minute of the game due to it being a couple possession game & I like this game to clear the OVER for us. Bottom line for me here, is that I have this game landing in the high 140's and I'm on the OVER 144.

Dave Essler

Wichita St / Notre Dame Over 137

These guys know what each other does, so perhaps no lengthy "feeling out" process. The weakness of the Shockers defense, if there is one, is defending the perimeter. The Irish should have no problem making shots over the shorter Witchita State defense. Notre Dame's interior defense is very good, but they won't hold the Shockers to 34% like they did Butler, who can be offensively challenged anyways. Neither team turns the ball over, so regardless of the pace (which won't be quick) they offenses should score. Both teams are excellent free throw shooting teams, so if the game is close down the stretch we've got the probability of late free throws. Witchita State WILL run if given the chance, and the Irish, because of a ton of perimeter shots, don't rebound well (at either end, really, which bodes well for Shocker points either way.

SPORTS WAGERS

Notre Dame +118 over Wichita State

The Wichita State story is a nice one. It’s the story of a mid-major rising to near the top of a sport that is dominated by power conferences and power teams. They are the team everyone loves to root for but what we have here is an overreaction to that love and an overreaction to the Shockers wiping out a #2 seed in Kansas. Kansas was clearly over-seeded. They actually looked lost and confused in their game against the Shockers while Wichita State showed up as prepared and determined as any team thus far. To say the Shockers were jacked up and ready to go against the perennial power in the State of Missouri would be an understatement. But let’s be real here, shall we? Wichita State played most of their games in Missouri Valley Conference. That’s a conference that featured teams like Bradley, Illinois State, Evansville, Loyola (Chic), Drake and Indiana State. So when you read about Wichita State’s 9th ranked defense that allowed 56 points per game, just know that those numbers are grossly skewed because they played cupcakes all year. The Shockers did play three ranked teams this season and allowed 69, 70 and 60 points to those three teams. That doesn’t include Kansas, who hung 65 on the Shockers last weekend and Kansas may have played their worst game of the year. Not to take anything away from the Shockers because they are a legit team with plenty of talent but they cannot be favored over Notre Dame.

While the Shockers were defeating the Drake’s of the world, Notre Dame was defeating and/or playing the likes of North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, N.C. State, Miami and a bunch of other very good ACC teams. The Irish came into this tournament as a #3 seed but clearly should have been a #2 seed. The Irish have won 11 of their past 12 games. Put Wichita State up against that same schedule of 12 games and you can almost be guaranteed that there would’ve been at least four defeats and maybe more. The Irish even hung a 71 on Louisville’s outstanding defense in 12-point win. Now the Irish are dogs against a mid-major that comes from a weak conference. That figures to motivate the Irish even more. Notre Dame will come into this game with a serious chip on its shoulders after learning that they’re not favored to win. The Irish are getting disrespected in the betting market and that’s something we always like to attack. Win or lose, the true value here is on the better club with the best PG in the country. Irish outright.

Stephen Nover

Wichita State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame +2

This deep into the tournament the handicap isn't to fade but to back play-on teams. I like Wichita State. But I like Notre Dame better in this spot and matchup.

The Irish have won seven in a row, but have yet to produce an "A" game in the NCAA Tournament just getting past Northeastern and Butler. They are due for a really strong performance - and I see it happening here.

Notre Dame hasn't lost the past 28 times it has shot better from the field than its opponent. The Irish hit 50.9 percent of their shots from the floor. That's No. 2 in the nation. Wichita State makes 44.6 percent of its field goals.

Duke and North Carolina couldn't stop Notre Dame in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. ACC teams have been playing very well in the tournament proving once again how strong the conference is. The Irish have shown a knack for stepping up when playing extremely strong competition. They are 7-1 versus the rest of the teams still left in the tournament.I like the Irish's offense better than any team. The Shockers have an excellent backcourt, but Notre Dame has an excellent backcourt, too, plus a size advantage up front. Irish senior guard Jerian Grant is one of the best in the country. Pat Connaughton, Zach Auguste and Demetrius Jackson all average in double figures along with Grant.

There are some situational elements that should work in Notre Dame's favor, too. Right before the Irish were to play their round of 32 game, Notre Dame coach Mike Brey found out his mother had died.

Wichita State is coming off a emotional and highly-satisfying victory against in-state rival Kansas, a school that would not play the Shockers in the past. Even with a few days since that victory, it's going to be difficult for the Shockers to fully come down from that high and refocus. They had been after Kansas for a long time and finally nailed the Jayhawks.

The Shockers also have to deal with another distraction as reports surfaced this week that Alabama is trying to woo away Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall offering more than $3 million.

Jim Feist

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

A tough spot for the stumbling Indiana Pacers, the second of a back to back situation. Indiana has averaged 18.5 free-throw attempts per game during the losing streak. It has averaged 21.5 on the season, which isn't particularly impressive -- it puts them only 22nd in the NBA in that category. Guard C.J. Miles said teams are packing it inside more now than earlier this season because the Pacers haven't been shooting as well from the outside. That's also made it more difficult to get to the basket and draw fouls. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS playing on no days rest and 1-5 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is rested while playing great defense, sixth in the NBA in points allowed. They are off an 89-88 comeback victory over Miami on Tuesday night. Milwaukee erased an 85-71 deficit with 14 consecutive points, still playing hard for this coaching staff.

Rocketman

Wichita State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Wichita State -1.5

The Wichita State Shockers take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Thursday night in Sweet Sixteen action. Wichita State is 30-4 SU overall this year while Notre Dame comes in with a 31-5 SU overall record on the season. Wichita State is 63-34 ATS overall the past 3 years. Wichita State is 80-10 SU and 54-32 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Wichita State is 12-2 SU and ATS since 1997 as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or a pick. Wichita State is 41-5 SU and 25-12 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Wichita State is 41-20 ATS last 3 years against a team with a winning record. Wichita State is 26-11 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Notre Dame is 8-19 ATS last 3 years when the total is 130 to 139 1/2. Wichita State plays sound defense allowing only 56.7 points per game overall this year, 60.4 points per game on the road this season and 62.2 points per game their past five games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Wichita State Thursday night!

Will Rogers

West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -13½

The Kentucky Wildcats will put their perfect 36-0 record to the test when they face West Virginia in the Sweet 16 on Thursday. The Mountaineers are a double-digit underdog, but the number is a few points lower than in Kentucky's last game versus Cincinnati. The Bearcats held Kentucky to 37% shooting and still lost by 13 points, and I am not convinced that the Mountaineers press defense can be as successful against Kentucky as it was against Maryland.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - Kentucky has played seven games at neutral sites this season, winning all seven with an average margin of victory of more than 23 points. The Mountaineers have failed to cover in five straight against opponents from the SEC.

2. Free Throw Shooting - The Wildcats are cool customers at the free throw line, hitting 72.2% from the charity stripe this season. They were 20-of-28 from the line against the Bearcats, and that proved to be the difference in an otherwise very close game.

3. X-Factor - The Wildcats are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.

Marc Lawrence

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -1

Edges - Bucks: 6-3-1 ATS with same season double revenge-exact in this series, including 2-0 ATS home; and 5-3 ATS as a host in this series in games in which Indiana is unrested. Pacers: 4-12 ATS away versus foes seeking same season double revenge-exact. With Milwaukee 10-5 ATS in its last fifteen games when seeking same season double revenge-exact, including 3-0 ATS at home, we recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Sleepyj

Kentucky -13.5

I'm going to use a little bit of a approach in this game..I watched both teams in the round of 32..One can argue that WV actually played a better game that day...Kentucky even thought they took care of business Vs. Cincy, they looked like they plated B- /B+ basketball and it was still enough to get them a win...You can even say that the game against Hampton was a B+ effort and result as well...It's time for Kentucky to shine as they come down the stretch...Sure i'm big Bob Huggins fan and i root for WV for some reason every year...WV this year is a quality club to be honest... Most worry about this full court press that WV is famous for...Take a look at the type of teams WV has struggled with....Length and Guard strength...The Mountaineers failed all 3 times this year with Baylor, twice with Iowa St, Kansas,Oklahoma, Lsu, and Texas...Teams that fit what i just said to a certain extent..Now your bringing in the most round of that criteria in Kentucky...Kentucky has two monsters underneath that will expose any team..This is a fact....Also, note the Kentucky just in fact may bring the A-/A+ game here...That worries me for the WV backers...If this press for WV fails to execute the game plan and generate points off turnovers with this press, it can and will fustrate this team..You have to think Coack Calipari will have this all figured out..He has been arounda long time..Now WV can defend the entire floor, but it will be limited past the half court..Kentucky had a poor shooting effort last game out. I highly doubt that continues...WV also likes to pick up fouls and that i guarantee will extend the lead in this one..Kentucky is way to athletic inside and out..They all shoot great from the free throw line as well..(except those two misses in the Cincy game)..cough--cough....Staten is a good guard and Williams can be a handful as well..My gut feeling is Kentucky will force WV further out from the basket and that's not a good thing for the Mountaineers..They are the weakest shooting team left in the big dance..Pushing the big guys out will only clutter up the outside here for WV..Kentucky can play great defense as well...I don;t believe WV will have great success in this game..Fouls will hurt W and Kentucky will keep extending this lead..The Sweet 16 round more often then not brings good teams to produce great efforts..Most in part because these 1 and 2 seeds are on high alert...Kentucky is the class of the field this year..It's plain as day on paper and to the eye test...Sure some of the teams have quality teams, but in a punch for punch game, Kentucky is far superior...This line is set rather high and money has come in on the Wildcats..I actually agree here..I'm not a fan of laying chalk like this, but i feel it is warranted....Kentucky will bring it's best game and i think they will scare the field after this one..Kentucky at this 13.5 number...has covered this number 11 out of the last 12 games..I like the odds here against a poor shooting team..Give me the Wildcats in a big convincing and statement like win.

Teddy Covers

Arizona -10.5

My power ratings show Arizona right there with Duke as the second best team in the country. The Wildcats are playing in a friendly, familiar venue in LA; certain to enjoy significant crowd support compared to Xavier in this game, to go along with their short travel time. Their coach, Sean Miller, is arguably the best coach in college basketball never to reach the Final Four. This team is a juggernaut, plain and simple, and the PAC 12’s 7-1 ATS mark over the opening weekend of the Big Dance speaks volumes about how undervalued this conference is on the national stage.

Xavier is no juggernaut. The Big East really wasn’t very good this year – it was Villanova and then everybody else. The Musketeers are tough and well coached, but they finished sixth in this mediocre conference with a 9-9 record in Big East play. They are here only because of the ‘luck of the draw’; facing an Ole Miss team off extensive travel on short rest in the first round, followed by upstart #14 seed Georgia State in the Round of 32.

The Georgia State game warrants further examination here. Xavier hit 16 of 21 (76%) from two point range , 7-13 (56%) from three point range and 22-25 (88%) from the free throw line – as well as any team can possibly shoot, even against an undersized foe. Xavier held the Panthers to just 12 rebounds for the entire game. And yet they covered the spread by only a single point. If you’re not covering numbers with ease following a truly unheard of statistical profile like that, it speaks volumes about their chances moving forward.

Xavier’s Matt Stainbrook and Jalen Reynolds – their only contributing big men -- were able to dominate the point against Georgia State. The duo scored 30 points on 12-14 from the field and matched the Panthers team rebounding numbers by themselves. But neither guy is a low post behemoth, leaving them in dire straights against the rugged, physical Wildcats front line. The Arizona quartet of Stanley Johnson, Kaleb Tarczewski, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley is primed to control the paint on both ends of the floor, start to finish.

The Wildcats just outrebounded a tough, physical Ohio State team by a +18 margin, on the heels of their +14 in the opening round and their +34 in the three games of the PAC-12 tournament. They’ve been consistently dominating, winning six of their last seven by 15 points or more while winning 13 straight overall. It’s surely worth noting that the Musketeers were only underdogs of +5 or higher twice this year; both times against Villanova. They lost by double digits both times and failed to cover either pointspread. There’s a class difference here that is greater than the current pointspread would indicate.

JR ODonnell

Xavier +10.5

Jr O will fire on the 23-13 #6 seeded Musketeers to give the #2 seeded 33-3 Arizona Wildcats all they can handle @ the Staples Center Thursday late... We have this ball game power rated at the Zona Wildcat's -5.77 points well inside the 10.5 and at some outs 11. Let's go inside the # The Xmen are comfortable in the upset role. They are off a super game vs a good Georgia State club These X Men Musketeers went 68% FG% and 7/13 from down 3 point range + a smooth 22 / 25 from the free throw line. Two of my keys are they need to rebound and protect the rock.... Everyone knows that the Wildcats can rebound and to stick around the Xmen must rebound!!!!

Joe Gavazzi

Wichita St. -2

Wichita St. and Notre Dame travel to the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio for this Sweet 16 matchup. This is a game that features the divergent styles of 2 highly successful teams who feature a combined 9 losses between them. Wichita succeeds with a strong defensive presence and outstanding fundamentals. Notre Dame, conversely, is one of the highest scoring, most efficient offensive teams in the nation. Normally, I would side with the statistical evidence that favors Wichita St. in this game. But, situational analysis and line value give a clear edge to Notre Dame. Let’s go inside the numbers and the thinking for the analysis.

There is little to criticize about 8th year Wichita St. HC, Greg Marshall, and the outstanding success of his Wheat Shockers. In the previous 5 years, Wichita has won 25 or more games, including a Final Four appearance 2 years ago, as well as 35-0 start to last season (before losing to Kentucky in this NCAA Tournament). Marshall’s success has been built on great defense and strong fundamentals. This season, Wichita St. again qualifies as one of our Defensive Dandies. They allow just 56 PPG on 40% from the field and 34% from the arc. They have a +5.3 rebound margin and a +4.5 assist/TO ratio, committing just 9.4 TOs per game, while forcing 13.3. With veteran perimeter play of PG VanVleet, shooting guard Ron Baker and do-everything Tekele Cotton, this team has one of the best perimeters in the nation. They will certainly need it against the offensively potent, Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame was on a downer in last week’s NCAA action. They had just come off consecutive, outright underdog wins vs. Duke and N. Carolina to win the ACC Tourney crown. We give them a mulligan as they enter Sweet 16 play, after they struggled to defeat Northeastern (69-65) and Butler (67-64). But those victories give them a road/neutral record of 14-3 SU, including 4-1 ATS as road or neutral dog with outright victories at Louisville vs. Duke and twice against N. Carolina. That type of success leaves them well qualified for this matchup against highly-respected Wichita St. The Irish have superb guard play in Grant and Connaughton and arguably the best interior force on the floor in Auguste.

During the Round of 64, I introduced the concept of gap dog. This occurs in NCAA action when a team with a seed that is 3 rungs or better than their opponent is installed as an underdog. The system, comfortably over 60% for 35 years, responded with spread victories with Butler over Texas and VCU against Ohio St. With the Wichita St. win vs. Kanas last week and the Shockers’ ensuing celebration, the linemaker and public have pushed Wichita St. to a 2 point favorite. With just 4 days to prepare from that monumental win an inevitable emotional downer may occur. In that case, No. 3 seed, Notre Dame, as a 2 point underdog will clearly be the value side. Combined with a notably more difficult schedule and one of the nation’s leading offenses that averages 79 PPG on 51% shooting with 39% from the arc and 74% from the stripe, we confidently line up with Notre Dame as your pointspread winner in this Sweet 16 contest.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Arizona -10.5 over Xavier: I know that Sean Miller has some ties with the Musketeers and some think he may not run up the score here, but still this Arizona team is much better than a middle of the pack Big East squad that really didn't have too tough a slate to get here. Xavier played well down the stretch and to get into the Big Dance, but still this was just a 9-9 team in a mediocre Big East conference this year and they did lose by 17 points in a step up game vs Villanova in the Big East finals. Arizona come sin having won 13 games in a row and have outscored their opponents by 25 ppg in their last 7 games. This is a team that went 19-2 vs Pac-12 competition this year and we have seen just how good this conference has been in the Big Dance. The Pac-12 is clearly better than the Big east and Arizona really dominate their conference this year and they should dominate a Xavier team that just doesn't have the offense or the defense to keep up in this one. Arizona moves on with ease here.

Wisconsin / North Carolina Under 145: The Badgers are locked in defensively right now and while they have run with some teams this year I don't feel they will attempt that with the Heels in this one. That would be a recipe for disaster for this team. North Carolina should be without Kennedy Meeks for this one and with him goes 11.6 ppg on 56.5% shooting. That not easy to replace especially vs a Wisconsin team that has allowed just 56.8 ppg on 42.2% shooting for the year, while away from home they have allowed just 56 ppg on 40.2% shooting. This is a tough defense that should slow down the Heels here. Carolina is not a great defensive team, they are 41st in the nation in defensive FG% and Wisconsin should really play a slow paced game on offense. In their game vs Arkansas the Heels won by 9 in a game that was uptempo and more to their like, while they only won by 2 vs a slow paced Harvard team in a game that saw just 132 points being scored. Slowing this team down is the key to beating them and for that I really don't see why the Badgers would run with them. This one should be played in the 130s as well.

BEST OF THE REST

Notre Dame / Wichita State Over 137: Both teams are excellent passing teams and that should create many open looks, especially from long range and both teams are very good 3-point shooting teams. Both teams will also get out and run and with many long shots that should also create many break out chances. Defensively both teams have been solid, but the Shockers have averaged 70.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while Notre Dame has put up 74.5 ppg in their last 10 games (Regulation). This game also has the feel on one that might come down to the foul game at the and that should produce many extra points, especially since there will be no tomorrow for the loser. I look for this one to be played in the 140s.

Kentucky / West Virginia Under 136.5: Kentucky is not a team that will get rattled too much by the West Virginia press as they have excellent ball handlers. West Virginia generates many of their points off of turnovers, but Kentucky has turned the ball over just 10 times per game this year. That means allot of half court offense from the Mountaineers and this is a terrible shooting team and they can't hit their FTs either. The Cats offense has been very good of late, but this is not a bad West Virginia defense and they should hold the Cats down somewhat here. Their press should slow the Cats down and make them more of a halfcourt team as well. Still Kentucky will get their points, but I just don't see this terrible shooting west Virginia squad scoring a bunch vs the #1 team in the nation in defensive FG%. 70-57 sounds like a good score for this.

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Indiana Pacers +1½

The Pacers are off a solid win in Washington last week to snap a 6 game slide and have won 8 of the last 11 vs the Bucks including 3 straight here in Milwaukee. They are 4-1 ats on the road with no rest off a road game. Milwaukee has lost 9 of 12 this month and is 1-9 at home off a home game where they scored 90 or less. The are 2-11 ats home off a dog win and a hideous 1-16 to the spread at home with 1 or less day of rest if they scored less than 20% of their points from the free throw line in their last game. Look for Indiana to set the Pace in this one.