Jack Jones
Milwaukee Bucks -2
The Milwaukee Bucks (35-36) put an end to a six-game losing streak with an 89-88 win over the Miami Heat last time out thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer from Khris Middleton. They have played a very tough stretch of games as all seven have come against playoff contenders.
The Indiana Pacers (31-40) also put an end to a six-game losing streak last night with a huge 103-101 win at Washington. George Hill's layup in the closing seconds proved to be the difference in a much-needed win for the Pacers and their playoff hopes.
However, this is now a very tough spot for the Pacers. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as difficult as it gets in the NBA, especially this late in the year. Milwaukee checks on on one days' rest and will be playing just its 2nd game in 4 days.
The Bucks are 19-14 at home this season, while the Pacers are just 13-22 on the road. Indiana is just 9-23 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) this season. The Bucks are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Red Dog Sports
Notre Dame +2
The Irish won the ACC Tourney beating UNC and Duke. Led by Grant, Jackson and Connaughton they can score inside or outside. The Shockers are tough with Van Vleet and Ron Baker. I think we see Notre Dame win by 3.
Michael Black
Notre Dame vs Wichita St.
Play: Notre Dame +2
We won backing the Shockers in their big win over Kansas on Sunday, we'll switch it up and fade them tonight as they take on Notre Dame. Wichita State had huge motivation in that Kansas game, the Jayhawks have been dodging them for a while, and rightfully so. I just don't see the Shockers playing with the same intensity in this game. Notre Dame hasn't really impressed many in their two point win over Northeastern and a three point OT win over Butler. These guys are due for a good game and you know they're taking the Shockers for real after seeing what they just did to Kansas. Mike Brey has the Irish ready for this one so let's back them with the points.
LT Profits
Wichita State vs Notre Dame
Pick: Wichita State -2
A very strong case can be made that the Wichita State Shockers were the most under-seeded team in the NCAA Tournament as seven-seeds, and after knocking off second seeded Kansas Sunday, we look for the Shockers to continue to prove their disrespect here by doing the same to the third-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The oddsmakers have not been fooled though as Wichita State was close to a Pick’em vs. Kansas and is now a tiny favorite here. The Shockers are a team with no weaknesses, ranking 16th in the country in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency, and they are even ranked ninth overall on Pomeroy, further pointing out their under-seeding. Now Notre Dame is third in offensive efficiency, but these teams are not in the same league defensively with the Irish ranking 103rd in defensive efficiency! Wichita State is 45-18-2 ATS in its last 65 games following a straight up win.
AC Dinero
North Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Play: North Carolina +6.5
Sweet 16 4 vs 1 Wisconsin comes in a solid team that could be a final 4 team. They are excellent at moving the ball and getting good shots (A/TO: 1.74 (o) .93 (d). They are only OK on defense (42%), and could have trouble with the more athletic Tar Heels as well as getting pushed around on the boards (-6). UNC will likely be without F Kennedy Meeks, which explains why the line went from 3.5 to 6.5. But we still like the Carolina defense (just under 40%) and the overall talent they possess. 6.5 is alot to give to a team like UNC. Wisconsin will have to battle just to walk out with a win
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON -½ +144 over Anaheim
Regulation only. Much has been said over the past couple of weeks regarding the Bruins faltering badly at this crucial time. The Bruins are being accused of losing their sense of urgency, physicality and emotion and the local media is over all them. Well, it’s time to put up or shut up, as the saying goes. What we know for sure is that the effort from the Bruins will be intense. They’ve been taking a ton of heat since they lost to Ottawa on March 19 and subsequently dropped two more games. However, the Bruins outshot each of their last four opponents and that includes outshooting the Bolts in Tampa, 28-19 in a 5-3 loss on Sunday. With three full days off to prepare for this one after some intense practices, Boston will be ready to go and they catch the Ducks at a pretty good time.
Anaheim has allowed 12 goals against in its past two games and has allowed five or more in four of its past nine. Bruce Boudreau is in panic mode. We’ve seen it from him before in his time with Washington and we’re seeing it again now. Boudreau has no idea which goaltender to use. Instead of sticking with one and letting that goaltender ride out his funk, Boudreau is switching back and forth. Tonight, it is Fredrick Anderson’s turn and anyone that follows this game closely can attest that John Gibson is a much better option. Andersen was yanked in his last start after allowing four goals on the first seven shots against the Rangers in an eventual 7-2 thrashing. Andersen has posted save percentages of .571, .875, .800, .773, .875 and .879 in six of his last nine starts. Dude is petrified out there. It’s not the Ducks are playing terribly but a teams’ mindset changes dramatically when the goaltender isn’t holding up and the coach panics. Hell, Boudreau even benched Cam Fowler last game and now this team is coming apart at the seams. Tuukka Rask versus Fredrick Andersen seals this deal.
Florida -½ +111 over TORONTO
Regulation only. The Maple Leafs played their best game in weeks on Monday against Minnesota but still lost 2-1. The Leafs best player was David Booth. Who will it be tonight? Tim Erixon? Sam Carrick? Richard Panik? Leo Komarov? Eric Brewer? Joakim Lindstrom? Trevor Smith? A repeat performance here like the one against Minnesota and the Leafs have an outside chance of winning but we wouldn’t count on it. More likely is that the Leafs get outworked, outplayed and out-desired by this superior team. We’ve said everything we need to about the Maple Leafs and we’re not about to switch gears now. Fading the Maple Leafs has been a cash cow and so we’ll continue to fade them.
The Panthers went into Tampa Bay on Tuesday and fell behind 2-0 very early before rallying for a 3-2 lead heading to the third period. They dominated the Bolts after those first 10 minutes and ended up outshooting them, 36-25. The only reason the Panthers lost was because Roberto Luongo was sleeping on three goals. Luongo is always a concern but the Maple Leafs are scoring at a snails pace these days so hopefully Luongo will come up with a decent save every once in a while. We can’t stress enough how undervalued these Panthers are. This team is so talented that it’s scary. From its defense to its top two lines to its third and fourth lines, Florida is on the verge of exploding. It’s not going to happen this year because right now they are paying their dues but that doesn’t mean they’re going to fade out of the playoff picture. Chances are they won’t make the playoffs but they’re not going down without a fight. The Panthers, with a little puck luck like the Senators have received lately, could conceivably be on a 12 game winning streak right now. That was the last time they lost by more than a goal. Over their last 12 games, the Panthers have victories over Detroit, Boston, Tampa Bay, Winnipeg and the Islanders. They also have one-goal losses to the Rangers, Bolts, Canadiens and Stars over that same span. The only way we lose this bet is if Jonathan Bernier has a monster game while Luongo is below average again but in no way is that going to prevent us from stepping in.
New Jersey +182 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Against any formidable foe the Capitals are not worthy of being in this price range and right now the Devils are very formidable. Washington is a low-scoring team that relies on one line and the PP to win games. That one line of Ovechkin/Backstrom/X often gets the job done but if they don’t score or are held to one goal, Washington’s win expectation sinks dramatically. The Capitals are below .500 at 6-7 over their past 13 games. They scored two or fewer eight times over that stretch and even needed OT to defeat the Sabres. Off since Saturday and returning home from a 3-game trip, the Capitals could be a little lethargic here. Regardless, they remain one of the riskiest “big favorites” in the league because they have the worst secondary scoring in the league.
Cory Schneider is in the same class as Carey Price. Schneider has a save % of .928, which is second in the league to Price’s .937. Schneider alone makes this wager a good one but that’s not all the Devils have going for them. The Devils played the Kings very tough in their last game out. Trust us when we tell you that L.A. brought it all that game. New Jersey is healthier now than they’ve been all season. They are rolling out three very good lines that have suddenly started to create a lot more scoring chances. The Devils were held to just one goal over their last two games but the chances were there and it’s worth mentioning that New Jersey has still scored three goals or more four times over their last nine games. This is one of those rivalries in which anything can happen. These two met seven times in the 2014 calendar year and Washington held a slight 4-3 advantage. The Devils know this opponent well and they know how to prepare for Washington’s big line. New Jersey may not win here but they have a real legit shot of doing so and offer up way too much value to pass at this price.
CAROLINA +140 over Pittsburgh
OT included. The Penguins are so overpriced while the Hurricanes are so underpriced, which combines to make this a true value play. Pittsburgh is still without Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist. That leaves a frustrated Sidney Crosby playing with Daniel Winnick and Chris Kuntiz, who hasn’t scored in 23 games. Last game out, Pittsburgh got goals from Steve Downie and Blake Comeau and the second goal was a fluke. The Pens have been held to two goals or fewer in five straight (we’re including the two they scored on Arizona before adding an empty netter) and two goals or fewer in eight of their last nine. The Pens were shutout twice over that span as well. The Penguins are a significant favorite here because the ‘Canes are perceived as a weak team in this market but nothing could be further from the truth.
Wins and losses dictate what happens in the market and in that regard, Carolina’s 26 wins is less than Toronto’s 27. We can’t tell you how grossly absurd that is. All the advanced stats say that the Hurricanes are a top-6 team in the East. From shots on net allowed to special teams’ efficiency to everything else, Carolina ranks high in all of them. In 5-on-5 play, Carolina ranks fifth behind St. Louis, Tampa, Detroit and Los Angeles in shots on net allowed. They rank 4th in the penalty kill and 9th on the PP. The Canes have outshot seven of their last eight opponents and 17 of their past 20 but have just six wins to show for it. And it’s not like they’re outshooting the opposition by a slim margin either. They outshot Chicago 44-25 last game and lost 3-1. They outshot Minnesota, 38-19 and lost 3-1. They outshot the Habs 31-22 and lost 4-0. The list goes on and on of how dominant the ‘Canes have been in a plethora of games this year with nothing to show for it. What we have here is a case of bad luck and poor goaltending and nothing more. Outside of goaltending, the ‘Canes do everything better than the Penguins and it’s not even close. Carolina creates more scoring chances, they spend more time in the opposition’s end and they allow fewer shots than Pittsburgh and they’ve been doing that for the past four months. Don’t be fooled into thinking these ‘Canes are weak and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on them either. This is a very good team that offers up the most value on today’s board because their win expectation is greater than the Penguins’ win expectation. This line is way off.
Los Angeles +102 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Islanders have one victory over their last six games and that occurred against New Jersey. Prior to that, their last victory occurred against the Maple Leafs in OT. In the Isles other five games during their past six, they scored one goal in each game. That’s a total of eight goals over their last six games and things don’t get easier here. Struggling to score and to win games, Los Angeles is the last team you want to see.
Kings’ fans aren’t the only one interested in what L.A. is doing. There are 15 other teams that are going to make the playoffs and all 15 are praying the Kings aren’t the 16th. The Kings are in playoff mode right now and that makes them still the most dangerous team in the NHL. Playing their third game in four days and tail-end of back-to-backs, L.A. went into Madison Square on Tuesday and defeated the very tough Rangers, 4-1. That’s a game New York wanted badly after losing to L.A. in last year’s Cup final. We’re not going to go into all the details about how difficult L.A. is to play and to beat. We’ve all seen just how powerful they are when it counts most. This is just one game in L.A.’s quest to make the playoffs in which anything can happen but in a big game with so much on the line, there isn’t a dog more worthy of backing than the Kings and you can times that by 10 when they’re playing a team that is laboring.
SPORTS WAGERS
Wisconsin -6 over North Carolina
Despite their prestigious reputation, the Tar Heels are not the UNC club that we are used to seeing in March Madness. This is the same squad that squeaked by Harvard by just two points and then moved onto cautiously handle an overvalued Arkansas team. Without question the Tar Heels are pitted against their best opponent in the tournament and against a top seed that seems to be on a mission. For all the success the Tar Heels have had, there are clearly issues of consistency. And given that UNC went through a stretch of ACC play in which they went 8-7 and lost to all the powers that be, that consistency issue or lack thereof could very well show up again here.
Bo Ryan's teams are rarely inconsistent. There were no bad runs or string of close calls for the Badgers this entire year. Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and Frank Kaminsky are all strong long-distance shooters, capable of hitting 3-pointers against the Tar Heels defense. The Badgers have not forgotten about their brush with glory after they lost in heartbreaking fashion in last year’s Final Four match-up with Kentucky when Aaron Harrison sent the Badgers packing on a game-winning three. The sting and agony has motivated this team from the beginning of the regular season and the Badgers have achieved great results, sporting an excellent 33-3 record. Against Kentucky last year, the Badgers dominated most of the game until the late rally by the ‘Cats would cost the Badgers the game. This is basically the same team with more experience now. Many are banking on the Tar Heels “being the Tar Heels” and carrying that pedigree to another great run in this event but we wouldn’t follow suit. We see the superior team spotting a short price in a game they should and probably will dominate. A lot of crazy stuff happens in the first weekend of this event and then things really settle down in the second weekend when the cream almost always rises to the top. Wisky is the cream in this contest.
Xavier +10½ over Arizona
We stress the importance of playing on value and the Xavier Musketeers have proven to be a quality play throughout this entire year and into the tournament. The Musketeers are 2-0 against the spread in this event and have been a clear undervalued favorite against both Mississippi and Georgia State. Now the dynamic has shifted, as Xavier enters as a significant dog against the #1 seed, Arizona.
Sure, the Wildcats have been impressive and have not been in a relatively close game since they played UCLA on March 13 in Pac-12 play. We’ll give the ‘Cats their just due and profess they are quite the talented bunch. However, they are playing a different opponent in Xavier. This Xavier team knows how to win and defy expectation. Arizona is a far more prolific opponent, but the Musketeers are being offered a generous amount of points. We have seen that heavy favorites and even top seeds fall in unexpected circumstances to overlooked opposition and we cannot sleep on Xavier. This is the same Xavier team that has wins over Georgetown, Butler and Cincinnati. With respect, none of these teams may sport the accolades that Arizona has but they are all formidable opponents. Both Butler and Cincinnati won their second round fixtures, despite being underdogs in those respective contests. Cinci also played tough against Kentucky for 25 minutes. Xavier knows how to compete to the final buzzer and they’re always well prepped. They won’t be intimidated against any team in any setting because this isn’t their first rodeo. The Musketeers seem to reach this stage every year. The Wildcats have blown out five of their last six opponents with four of those games being by 19 points or more. Arizona has tremendous upside with their championship-caliber defense but their string of blowout wins, which includes their first two games of this event means you are paying a premium to wager on them here and that’s where we step in and scoop up that value.
Notre Dame +118 over Wichita State
The Wichita State story is a nice one. It’s the story of a mid-major rising to near the top of a sport that is dominated by power conferences and power teams. They are the team everyone loves to root for but what we have here is an overreaction to that love and an overreaction to the Shockers wiping out a #2 seed in Kansas. Kansas was clearly over-seeded. They actually looked lost and confused in their game against the Shockers while Wichita State showed up as prepared and determined as any team thus far. To say the Shockers were jacked up and ready to go against the perennial power in the State of Missouri would be an understatement. But let’s be real here, shall we? Wichita State played most of their games in Missouri Valley Conference. That’s a conference that featured teams like Bradley, Illinois State, Evansville, Loyola (Chic), Drake and Indiana State. So when you read about Wichita State’s 9th ranked defense that allowed 56 points per game, just know that those numbers are grossly skewed because they played cupcakes all year. The Shockers did play three ranked teams this season and allowed 69, 70 and 60 points to those three teams. That doesn’t include Kansas, who hung 65 on the Shockers last weekend and Kansas may have played their worst game of the year. Not to take anything away from the Shockers because they are a legit team with plenty of talent but they cannot be favored over Notre Dame.
While the Shockers were defeating the Drake’s of the world, Notre Dame was defeating and/or playing the likes of North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, N.C. State, Miami and a bunch of other very good ACC teams. The Irish came into this tournament as a #3 seed but clearly should have been a #2 seed. The Irish have won 11 of their past 12 games. Put Wichita State up against that same schedule of 12 games and you can almost be guaranteed that there would’ve been at least four defeats and maybe more. The Irish even hung a 71 on Louisville’s outstanding defense in 12-point win. Now the Irish are dogs against a mid-major that comes from a weak conference. That figures to motivate the Irish even more. Notre Dame will come into this game with a serious chip on its shoulders after learning that they’re not favored to win. The Irish are getting disrespected in the betting market and that’s something we always like to attack. Win or lose, the true value here is on the better club with the best PG in the country. Irish outright.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Mountaineers of West Virginia to make it interesting against the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats.
Hard to imagine West Virginia being able to win this one outright, but getting the double-digits certainly makes Bob Huggins' team an interesting proposition.
Bob Huggins does own an 8-2 career mark in the games he has contested over the years against John Calipari, so the Mounties do have that going for them.
West Virginia may not be as big as Kentucky, but they are pretty close depth-wise, and they do employ a pressing defense that can create turnovers from this Wildcats edition.
In the end Kentucky is too good to lose outright, but I can easily see this game being decided by single-digits.
Take the Mountaineers plus the points.
2* WEST VIRGINIA
Brad Wilton
Teacher and pupil get together in the night-cap at the Staples Center as Chris Mack of Xavier was Sean Miller's assistant for a few years while just getting started out in the coaching world.
Unfortunately for Mack, it looks to me that Miller and his Wildcats hold most of the cards for tonight's round of sixteen contest.
Arizona gets to play this one in the City of Angels - where they play twice a season against UCLA and USC - and the Wildcats crop of talent shows 7 members of this year's team hailing from the Southern California vicinity! 'Zona has won their last 14 games straight up, and they have also cashed in against the spread in 11 of those 14 victories.
Xavier caught a little bit of a break in getting to this point, as they dumped an Ole Miss team that had to come from nearly 20 points down in their play-in win over BYU and were clearly spent come game time against the Muskies. Next the X-Men played Cinderella Georgia Southern in the following game fresh off their upset of #3 seed in the region Baylor. You get where I am going with this.
It is time for the chalk to take care of business, and take care of business they do, as Arizona takes it comfortably.
Lay it with the Wildcats.
3* ARIZONA
Scott Delaney
I'm playing Wisconsin as my free play tonight, laying the points against North Carolina. Nothing major, as it's simply an opinion play, but if there is one way you have to go with this game, it's got to be the Badgers.
I won't get too long-winded with this analysis, as the more important play is my 100 Dimer, but the fact is, throwing a wrench into North Carolina's uptempo flow is going to be a problem. Tar Heels coach Roy Williams is not a fan of the slower pace, and while I know his boys have beaten teams that walk the ball up and minimize the number of possessions, I think they'll be hard-pressed to find patience while looking for the right sht.
They outlasted Virginia in the ACC Tournament, and survived against 13th-seeded Harvard last week. But this is a different mountain to climb, led by big, bad Frank Kaminsky. With the 7-foot center and national Player of the Year candidate teaming with junior forward Sam Dekker, the Badgers are far too much of a disciplined team to let the Tar Heels dictate the game's flow.
Let's lay the points here, as Wisconsin rolls to the win and cover.
1* WISCONSIN
Gabriel DuPont
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with UL Lafayette - Momentum favors the Ragin' Cajuns, who have won nine of their last 10 games overall, including each of its first two in this event. Tonight it turns the lights on at Blackham Coliseum for the first time since 2006. The multi-purpose arena was built on the University of Louisiana at Lafayette campus in 1949. It remained the home for the men's team until the Cajundome was completed in 1984. The atmosphere will fuel the momentum.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Evansville - Evansville backed into this event, as the Purple Aces finished their regular-season campaign losing their last three games, and then the conference-tournament opener. Four straight losses, and they were still invited to play. Makes sense, since they were 18-12. Tonight they run into a much different animal than their first two opponents in this event. Lafayette is a big step up from IPFW and Eastern Illinois.
Overall, why UL LAFAYETTE is my FREE PLAY in this game - UL Lafayette, which has covered five of seven home games and five straight overall, has been on a mission since having its seven-game win streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament quarterfinals against Georgia State. The seven-game streak was the longest by any SBC team this season.
The Cajuns produced one of the most exciting results in March - from any tournament - when Jay Wright nailed the game-winning 3-point shot with 0.9 seconds remaining for a 71-70 win over Sam Houston State last Saturday. The momentum carries over.
1* UL LAFAYETTE
Chris Jordan
Last night I played against the Pacers in this same spot, and they turned around and snapped a six-game losing streak with a 103-101 victory at Washington. Indiana won on a late jumper by George Hill, who finished with 29 points, 9 assists and 7 rebounds). Tonight my free play is on Indiana, catching a couple points from Milwaukee.
The Pacers struggled defensively during their skid, but last night's win will boost confidence for this game, on the road, against Central Division rival Milwaukee, which has lost three straight home games to the Pacers.
The Bucks are four games ahead of Indiana, and while they're fading fast after losing 11 of their last 14 contests, Indiana's playoff fate is in its own hands and can make huge strides in its last 11 games. The Pacers still have games against Boston, Charlotte, Brooklyn, seventh-place Miami, and these sixth-place Bucks. They're all winnable games.
The Pacers hold a 2-1 edge in the season series and a win tonight would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucks.
I'm taking the road pup tonight.
4* INDIANA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Milwaukee Bucks minus the point at home over the Indiana Pacers.
The Bucks and Pacers were both mired in the midst of six-game losing streaks before late, heroic wins in their last games have gotten them back on track, for the time being, in hopes of making a playoff push in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks are in 6th place and have been for quite some time, but this recent losing streak pushed them closer and closer to the #7 and #8 seeds and they understand that being down there is a first round matchup with either Atlanta and Cleveland. Get the #6 seed and you assure yourself that you won't have to face either of them in the first round.
As for Indiana, they have been treading water for three months, but did manage to beat the Bucks in their last meeting a few weeks ago in Indianapolis. Rodney Stuck was fantastic in that game, scoring 25 points to go along with six boards and six assists. I can assure you it's not going to happen again tonight.
The Bucks simply need this game too badly and will do whatever it takes to win. Take the Bucks as your free play of the day.
1* MILWAUKEE
Andy Iskoe
North Carolina +6.5
There's no denying that Wisconsin is Final Four if not NCAA Championship material but all the pressure on this game is on them, as the top seeded team that has also been preparing for the likely matchup against Arizona in the Elite 8. At the same time 'Carolina is a quality team with a strong pedigree over the years and is 1 of 5 ACC teams to make it to the Sweet 16 with another ACC team, Virginia, having lost in the round of 32 after winning its opening matchup. The ACC teams are a combined 11-1 SU in the Tournament but just 5-7 ATS. Of course, the ACC team was favored in 10 of their 12 games with the only two games in which the ACC team were underdogs, those teams won SU (Louisville over Northern Iowa and North Carolina State over Villanova). There is plenty of room for Carolina to come up short on the scoreboard yet cash the ticket in a game which they can clearly win based on talent. After all, in their only other game vs an ACC team this season, in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge, Wisky lost -- at home -- to Duke (80-70 as 5.5 point home chalk). Duke and Carolina played a pair of competitive games in ACC play this season, with Duke winning by 2 at home in OT and by 7 on the road in the rematch.
Harry Bondi
WISCONSIN (-5.5) over North Carolina
We had another winner on Wednesday with Old Dominion running our record on the Free Picks to 12-4 the last 16 days. On Harry Bondi’s Steam Team phone service we have another 5 Star Lock going tonight! We have hit 3 of our 4 Lock plays in the tournament and expect another easy winner tonight! Call 1-877-332-0077 to get tonight’s 5 Star Lock for just $100 or the rest of our Tournament and NBA selections through April 6th for only $250! Tonight we look at the NCAA Tournament game between Wisconsin and North Carolina for your FREE Winner. Carolina is really fortunate to still be in the tournament almost losing to both Harvard and Arkansas. It’s a big step up to take on a Wisconsin team that will frustrate the Tar Heels with their deliberate play and who should be able to score at will inside on Carolina’s pourous defense. Dont’e estimaye the impact of Kennedy Meeks for the Tarheels. He was averaging 12 points and 8 boards a game and will be sorely missed tonight. Badgers roll.