Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday March, 29

Rob Vinciletti

Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -8

The Heat fit a pair of nice systems that pertain to this season. Teams like Miami with 2 or more days rest, while off back to back losses are 23-11 to the spread. The Secondary system plays on teams off a straight up favored loss vs an opponent off back to back wins. The upset losers have bounced back to a 33-17 spread record. For some team angles we note that Miami is 7-2 straight up and to the spread off 3 or more road games, 5-0 as a home favorite from -6.5 to -9 with 4 spread wins. In games vs the South West Division Miami has won and covered all 3 times. Dallas has dropped 5 of 7 with home loss revenge 6 of 7 to the spread this year off back to back ats wins. The Mavericks are 0-3 to the spread vs South East division teams and have lost and failed to cover both times on the road with a posted total of 185 to 190. Look for Miami to bounce back with a win and cover here tonight.

David Chan

Philadelphia Flyers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers

The 44-24-8 Philadelphia Flyers blast into Toronto to take on the 33-35-9 Maple Leafs.

Sergei Bobrovsky is scheduled to start opposite Jonas Gustavsson between the pipes.

Bobrovsky has a big chance here to prove his worth with starter Ilya Bryzgalov out with a foot injury.

Philadelphia is rolling, winning 10 of 13 in March, and Bryzgalov has played a big part in its success; however he's not the only reason this team is winning.

Philadelphia comes into this one confident, having dominated this series, taking eight of the last nine, including four in a row in Toronto.

The Leafs are brutal on home ice, being outscored 36-18 during their 0-7-3 slide at the Air Canada Center (most recently a lacklustre 3-0 setback to the 'Canes on Tuesday).

“The thing is we haven’t done anything good really,” said Phil Kessel. “It’s frustrating for all of us. We’re all disappointed obviously. We wish we could win games … I don’t really know what to think.”

Gustavsson is 0-2-1 with a 3.27 GAA lifetime vs. Philadelphia.

Expect the Flyers to kick this struggling Leafs team while it's down.

Consider laying the price in this one!

Matt Fargo

Stanford @ Minnesota
PICK: Over 131

We are getting excellent value in this total as both semifinal games of the NIT stayed well below the number and the adjustment made to reflect those is simply too big. Stanford and Massachusetts stayed below the total by over 11 points while Minnesota and Washington stayed under the number by close to 10 points despite their game going into overtime. Tonight's total has come down 18 points for Stanford and 13 points for Minnesota which is a massive drop.

The Cardinal were on a 6-0 over run heading into Tuesday's game with all of those games easily surpassing tonight's posted number. A lot of those totals were right around this one and overall those six games saw the over hit by an average of a whopping 19.2 ppg. The Gophers meanwhile were on a 5-1 over run prior to their game against Washington and like Stanford, they weren't even close. In those five games that surpassed the number, they did so by an average of an even greater 21.3 ppg.

The matchups have dictated those results and while the defenses on both sides are better in this matchup, you cannot discount the offenses and how explosive they can be. Since the postseason conference tournaments started, Stanford has averaged 80.3 ppg which is over eight ppg higher than its season average while the Gophers have averaged 73 ppg which is about three ppg more than what they have averaged all season. Even the defenses have allowed a combined average of 136.6 ppg over their last five games.

Minnesota is 21-10 to the over in its last 31 games away from home following a win while Stanford is 4-1 to the over in its last five games following a victory. The Gophers have gone over the total in 13 of their last 18 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 64 or fewer ppg while Stanford has gone over in 46 of its last 71 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 42 percent or less shooting from the floor. Guard play will be a big factor in making this one surpass the number.

Ben Burns

Lightning @ Devils
PICK: Under 5.5

I won with the Devils to go "under" in their last game. After back-to-back poor defensive efforts, I expected them to emphasized improved defensive play. Sure enough, they won 2-1. I feel the "under" is again providing us with solid value.

Its true that these teams have played a few high-scoring games against each other this season and its also true that the Lightning have seen three straight finish above the number. However, two of this season's three meetings were before Christmas and the third was more than a month ago. As far as the three consecutive "overs," note that the "under" is a profitable 8-4 the last dozen times that TB was off three straight games that topped the total.

The Devils, who lost 4-3 in the February meeting, have seen the "under" go 24-16 the last 40 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. During that stretch, the "under" is also 58-39-18 when they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Don't be surprised if those numbers improve here. Consider Under 5.5.

Jim Feist

New Orleans Hornets vs Portland Trailblazers
Pick: New Orleans Hornets

New Orleans is 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS the last 5 games despite being a dog in four of them. They won twice as a dog, beating New Jersey on the road and the playoff bound Clippers. The Hornets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. They face a Portland team that has packed in the season, firing their coach and making personnel changes to a team that began the year with great promise. The Trail Blazers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Play the Hornets!

Dave Cokin

New Orleans Hornets vs Portland Trailblazers
Pick: New Orleans Hornets

Second of back to back roadies for the Hornets, but they won easily on Wednesday night and have a good shot here as well. Portland just isn't playing with much energy and the points here seem to high. I'll take New Orleans.

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is the Oklahoma City Thunder in their huge West Conference showdown with the Lakers tonight in Los Angeles.

Not real sure what is going on these days in the Lakers camp, as Bynum's recent benching signals a red-flag right now in backing Los Angeles. The Lakers are just 3-3 straight up their last six games, and they have dropped a money-burning six in a row when installed as the favorite.

Oklahoma City just whipped up on the Miami Heat this past Sunday, and they come to the City of Angels having won four in a row. The Thunder is on a two game series win streak versus the Lakers, both of those victories coming by lopsided double-digit margins.

With Thunder having won 16 of their 24 road games this season (14-10 against the spread), and with the Lakers having plenty of internal turmoil going at this writing, I will back Oklahoma City in this near pick'em spot tonight at the Staples Center.

4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

MATT RIVERS

As for your Thursday night free play winner, going to ride the strong guard play that Stanford has going right now as they play Minnesota for the NIT title tonight at Madison Square Garden.

Minny was able to stop one Pac 12 team on Tuesday night, but the Golden Gophers overtime nail-biter over Washington will leave them a little drained tonight as they try to stop another Pac 12 team.

Stanford looked very strong in eliminating a tough challenge from a Massachusetts team that had plenty of crowd support on Tuesday night. Johnny Dawkins' team has been getting exceptional guard play from Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown, and Aaron Bright, as that trio combined for 43 of Stanford's 74-points in Tuesday's ten-point win over the Minutemen.

Josh Owens chipped in with 15-points and 12-rebounds in the win, and right now all of the pieces are meshing for the Cardinal of Palo Alto.

Make no mistake, Minnesota has done some yeoman's work in order to get to this game, but Stanford would like to make amends for their November loss on the Garden floor when they got beat by Syracuse for the Preseason NIT Final. Count on that happening.

Stanford takes it.

2♦ STANFORD

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +221/+188 over NEW JERSEY

We’re going to split this up and play a unit on the Lightning in both regulation and OT included. Expect Tampa to get outplayed here. That’s almost a given. They’ve won three of its last four games but didn’t deserve to win any of them. In that 5-3 win over Philadelphia, they were outshot 38-15. Against the Islanders and Edmonton, they were outshot 37-26 and 36-21 respectively, yet won them both. It caught up to them in its last game against the Bruins when they were outshot 38-18 and lost 5-2. Now the Bolts will take their act to Newark where Vincent LeCavalier returns to the lineup. His return gives the Bolts another player the opposition has to at least pay some attention to. More than that however, is that Marty Brodeur is capable of allowing a bunch of soft goals and that makes the Devils a huge risk laying a monster price. With the NHL’s top goal scorer in Steven Stamkos arriving (55 goals), and with the Devils coming off games against Pittsburgh and Chicago, the Bolts offer up too much here to pass up on. Let’s not ignore that the Devils have two wins in their past six games and most of those losses were due to poor goaltending. We’ve said it all season that Brodeur is a risk and it’s been proven over and over again that he is. Play: Tampa Bay +188 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Tampa Bay +221 in regulation (Risking 1 unit).

Philadelphia -½ +109 over TORONTO

How sad is it that the two most historic and richest clubs in the NHL are sitting in last and second last in the conference? When Brian Burke was hired to become the savior, the Maple Leafs were fighting up until the last day of the season for a playoff spot. This year they’ll end the season in dead last with no hope for the future. Team morale is way down, goaltending is awful and playing at home has become a nightmare. The last time the Maple Leafs won at home was way back on February 6, more than 50 days ago. They were booed off the ice on Tuesday in that 3-0 loss to the Hurricanes. That defeat officially eliminated Toronto from the playoffs. Against the Flyers this season, the Leafs are 0-3 and have scored five times. Despite numerous injuries, Philly has picked up points in six of its last eight games. They’ve won four straight at the ACC. We also like the fact that the Flyers are going with backup goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky here. Ilya Bryzgalov has been red-hot and Bobrovsky has not had a chance to play much over the past couple of months. Expect a little extra from the Flyers in support of him. Motivation is not an issue for teams playing in Toronto anyway and the Leafs are playing with their heads down at home. Who can blame them? Play: Philadelphia -½ +109 (Risking 2 units).

Dave Price

Indiana Pacers -10

The Pacers endured a letdown last night following their big win over the Heat but should bounce back strong here against a Washington squad they have defeated at home 7 straight times by an average of 13.1 points. The Pacers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in those games. Lay the points.

Jimmy Boyd

Minnesota -1

Tuesday, the Golden Gophers defeated Pac-12 regular season champion Washington. Tonight, I have them taking down the team that finished 7th in the Pac-12. Keep in mind that Stanford played Washington this season and was defeated by 13 points. Also, Minnesota defeated USC (the other like opponent) by 15 points. Stanford's best win over USC this season was a 12-point victory.

Minnesota has been on some kind of a roll since losing 6 in a row in February. It has won 6 of its last 7 SU and has covered the spread in 8 consecutive games. It should be noted that the Gophers played Wisconsin twice, Ohio State, Michigan State and Indiana during the previously mentioned losing streak. This emphasizes the superiority of the Big Ten in comparison with the Pac-12. The Golden Gophers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Pac-12.

The Cardinal are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win, 0-6 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons and 5-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. We'll take Minnesota.

Ross Benjamin

Washington Wizards vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Washington Wizards +10½

This is a tired Indiana team who's played a lot of basketball over the last 14 days. It really showed up last night in an embarrassing 100-84 road loss at New Jersey in a game the Pacers were a 6.0-point favorite. Indiana is 12-26 ATS in the last 2 seasons when playing with no rest. The Pacers are also 8-17 ATS this season when playing 8 or more games over the last 14 days.

Any NBA away underdog with a less than .500 winning percentage that's facing an opponent playing in their 9th or more games over the last 14 days, and they have a winning percentage of between .510-.600 is 38-13 ATS (74.5%) since 1996. Play on the Washington Wizards plus the points.

Free NBA Release for 3/29: Indiana Pacers -10 (-115, 5Dimes) over the Washington Wizards. The Pacers are showing excellent value at home against the lowly Washington Wizards. The Pacers have beaten the Wizards four straight times in this series by an average of 13 points/game, holding Washington to just over 41% shooting in that stretch. They'll be happy to return home where they last took down the Miami Heat 105-90 as a 3.5 point home dog. Indiana most likely took New Jersey too lightly after that impressive win against Miami. And Danny Granger fouled out after only 21 minutes of play and 5 points to his name last night. We fully expect them to bounce back tonight, not making the same mistake twice. They'll be up against a Wizards club that's been struggling to put points on the board of late, and may very well have packed it in for the season. Washington enters tonight's game on a 4 game losing skid where they've managed to score just 86 points/game. Even that offensive production has dwindled to just 76.5 points/game in their last two (both at home). These two faced each other a week ago in Washington and the Pacers won 85-83 but failed to cover the high number as the 7 point road chalk. We had our money on the Wizards that night, but we're expecting a diferrent tale of the tape at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana is a perfect 7-0 at the window the last seven times they hosted the Wizards, including a 11.5 point home cover around the same time last year. Chances are that number will improve to 8-0 as the Wizards are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. We'll lay the number on the home team in this one, Indiana Pacers -10.

*Our Free Play Record is 189-108-2 all-time. Sign up at iseewinners.com to get all of our free sports picks daily via email.

David Banks

Thunder / Lakers Under 201

A potential playoff preview will close out TNTs Thursday night doubleheader in Tinseltown where Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers (31-19, 22-28 ATS) will attempt to even up the season series with Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-12, 28-22 ATS); take this one in live from the Staples Center at 10:30 ET.

With the Thunder possessing a commanding 11-game lead over the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz atop the Northwest Division standings and a three-game lead over the San Antonio Spurs for the best record in the West, times are real good in OKC! Head Coach Scott Brooks and his staff have gone through the motions of molding some super young talent into the best the Western Conference has to offer in just five short seasons; seems like only just yesterday since the City of Seattle gave the franchise the boot! Think they're regretting it now? Regardless, when your offense possesses two of the leagues Top 10 scorers (Durant/Westbrook) as well as the potential sixth Man of the Year off the bench (Harden), you know the team is destined for greatness. That said; even though OKC attacks the boards with the best of them, the defense is questionable in giving up over 97.0 PPG. The Thunder have won 16 of their 24 games played away from Chesapeake Energy Arena and covered the closing number in 14 of them.

The Lakers were the forgotten bunch at the outset of the season with the Clippers making all the headlines after trading for Chris Paul. Kobe Bryant and his mates were forced to stare up at Lob City in the standings over the course of the first two months of the regular season, but now that they've been marred with poor play ever since the All Star break, Head Coach Mike Browns squad has reclaimed the division lead. The Lakers hold a 2.5-game cushion atop the Pacific and also possess the third seed in the Western Conference playoff standings four-games in back of the second seeded San Antonio Spurs. With the acquisition of point guard Ramon Sessions from Cleveland, LA has seen its point production increase to 101.7 PPG nearly six points per game better than its 96.0 seasonal average. The Lakers have defended their house well compiling 20-4 SU & 13-11 ATS tallies on the year, and though they return to Staples having won three of four, they've failed to cover each of their L/3.

OKC snapped its four-game losing streak to the Lakers in the teams regular season finale a year ago, and it will possess a two-game win streak in the recent series after handing LA a 100-85 defeat as 7-point chalk in the teams lone 2011-12 meeting back in late February. Both of these clubs have been rock solid in the W/L category on one days rest with Oklahoma City 20-6 SU and LA 19-8 SU, but the pointspread battle has gone the way of the Thunder who stand 14-12 ATS while the Lakers have struggled mightily producing a 10-17 tally versus the closing number. The favorites has covered in six of these rivals L/8 overall meetings, while the under has cashed in four of the L/5.