Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, March 31,2011

Tom Freese

Dallas Mavericks at LA Lakers
Play: LA Lakers

The Mavericks are 14-37-1 ATS their last 52 Thurdsay games. Dallas is 2-7 ATS their last 9 games after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Dallas is 1-5 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Lakers are 53-20 straight up this year. The Lakers are 9-4 ATS their 13 games off an ATS loss. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Kobe and company are 5-0 ATS vs. NBA Southwest teams. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Rocketman

New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders
Play: New York Rangers

NY Rangers have won 6 of their last 7 games overall. NY Islanders have lost 5 of their last 7 games overall. Rangers are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Rangers are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Rangers are 6-2 in their last 8 road games. Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 games as a favorite. Rangers are 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record. Islanders are 66-135 in their last 201 vs. Eastern Conference. Islanders are 17-35 in their last 52 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Islanders are 9-21 in their last 30 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Islanders are 22-54 in their last 76 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Islanders are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog. Islanders are 14-37 in their last 51 games playing on 0 days rest. Islanders are 15-40 in their last 55 Thursday games. Islanders are 17-57 in their last 74 vs. Atlantic. Islanders are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Islanders are 1-7 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Rangers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Rangers are 25-9-1 in the last 35 meetings in New York. We'll recommend a small play on NY Rangers tonight!

BIG AL

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Atlanta Braves

It was anything but dull for the Nats during the off-season, with the loss of their biggest bat as 1B/OF Adam Dunn took off for the Windy City, Jason Werth signed a very large and questionable contract to try and replace Dunn, Stephen Strasburg threw his first baseballs since Tommy John surgery, and the team trotted out its latest prize in 18-year-old sensation and first round draft pick Bryce Harper. Harper will start in the Minors and almost all Nats fans know that it will probably be at least two years until their team is a serious contender in the NL East, but there are still plenty of reasons to come to the ballpark in 2011. Unfortunately for them, the Phillies got better, and today's opponent also improved itself over the winter, albeit more quietly than Philadelphia. The Braves lineup is definitely stronger than 2010, and there are some new young arms on the pitching staff that can throw some heat. Today's starter, righthander Derek Lowe is not one of them, but there are plenty of reasons you keep a guy like Lowe around, and it wouldn't surprise anyone if he went out this afternoon and shut down a Nats lineup that will no doubt require plenty of tweaks in the early part of the season. With Nyjer Morgan recently departed for the Brewers, the Nats are without a true leadoff threat while newly acquired 1B Adam Laroche is nursing a sore shoulder. Take the Braves.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The Angles have won 16 of the last 20 in the series, including 9 of 11 here in KC. They have a big advantage in the pitching department with J. Weaver going in the opener. Weaver has allowed 2 earned runs in his last 22 innings vs KC. in his last 9 starts vs KC his era is a solid 2.64. Today he opposes Royal righty L. Hochevar. In his home starts last season KC Lost 6 of 9 times. Hochevar has a 10.21 era in his 2 starts vs LA. as he allowed 12 earned runs in 10+ innings. Look for the Angles to win their road openers here today.

Bobby Conn

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Gallardo was stellar in spring training with a 1.96 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18.1 innings. Volquez was the opposite giving up 12 hits, 11 walks, and 10 runs in 9 innings. This is a big game for the Brewers as they want to show last year's division champions that they are going to be a force this year. Nice value here with Milwaukee that is too good to pass up.

Jim Feist

Padres at Cardinals
Pick: Over

St. Louis has a strong offense, one that ranked 9th in batting and 14th in runs last season, and they add Lance Berkman, who is especially familiar with the NL Central from his days in Houston, a five-time All-Star. San Diego goes with Tim Stauffer, who was a reliever last season. San Diego pitchers can be dominant at home because Petco is so big, but struggle on the road. Look for more runs than oddsmakers expect; Play the Padres/Cardinals Over the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee +106 over CINCINNATI

The most significant additions for the Brewers this off-season were pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. The Brewers also hope to have added some pop at shortstop with the addition of Yuniesky Betancourt from the Royals. Betancourt slugged 16 homers and knocked in 78 runs for KC last year and he now joins an offense with a lot more sting, including Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks (he led the majors in home runs (29), runs (112) and RBI (83) from the leadoff spot) Casey McGehee, Corey Hart (on 15 day DL) and Ryan Braun to name a few. Yovani Gallardo gets the opening day assignment and deservedly so. Last April, the right-hander made five starts and gave his squad 29 solid frames, striking out 29 and inducing a 53% ground-ball rate. 2010 was a breakout year for Gallardo with a career-best 14 victories, 200 strikeouts for the second straight season and a first All-Star selection. Gallardo is an elite talent that has not received the recognition he deserves. He can fly under the radar again for his first few starts, as all the attention is on Marcum and Greinke. The Reds have a potent offense too but in no way do they have an edge on the mound today. Edinson Volquez returned from last year's Tommy John surgery on July 17 and remained an all or nothing pitcher. His velocity returned but he had trouble finding the plate. Volquez’s inaccuracy let to an ugly WHIP of 1.77 and an alarmingly high ERA of 4.74. Lest we forget, Volquez served a 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs while rehabbing in the minors earlier last season and one had to wonder how he would perform when he was "clean"? We’re just sayin’. Not anxious to be laying anything here with an inferior and erratic chucker on the mound. Play: Milwaukee +1.06 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +169 over ST. LOUIS

The equation here is a rather simple one and it goes like this: When offered +169 on Tim Stauffer, take it and ask no questions. Stauffer is an emerging talent and while his 6-5 record from 2010 may not stand out, his ERA of 1.82 does. Since Stauffer spent most of his time in relief, he's undervalued in the starting role but his elite ground-ball profile of 68% is off the charts and it was no fluke, as he maintained that profile for a long duration covering 82 innings. The Padres lost their best hitter, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to free agency but added two new pieces in shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson. To help replace Gonzalez’s production, San Diego signed Brad Hawpe to a one-year deal in hopes of the youngster finding the bat he had n 2009 with the Rockies when he hit .285 with 42 doubles, 23 home runs, 86 RBI and 82 runs scored, en route to his first All-Star selection. Chris Carpenter takes the mound for St. Louis and he needs no introduction. Despite Carpenter’s immense talent, there’s no getting around his injury history and his advancing age (35). This spring Carpenter was removed from a game with a hamstring pull. In four spring starts covering 17 innings, Carpenter went 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA while walking 10 and striking out 10. Certainly he can shine again but this isn’t about wagering against Carpenter. This is all about taking back a ridiculously high price on a quality pitcher that the oddsmakers haven’t quite caught wind of yet. Play: San Diego +169 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Lakers -6.5

The Lakers are playing as well as any team in the league righ now and have a one game lead over the Mavericks for second best record in the West. I expect LA to expand on that lead in this game. The Lakers 15-1 record after the All-Star break made them only the fifth team to produce that mark since the All-Star game was introduced in 1951. Three of the four teams to do so, Detroit (1989-90), Chicago (1990-91) and the Lakers (1999-2000) went on to win the NBA championship. This is the second of back to back games for the Mavericks and their fourth road game in six days. The Mavericks are also only 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Lay the points.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals

Prices like this won't be available for much longer, so let's jump on the Halos on Opening Day as they visit what is going to be a terrible Royals team on Opening Day. Kansas City has lost 16 of 20 head to head with Los Angeles and must deal with Jered Weaver, who despite poor run support a year ago still led MLB in strikeouts. The Angels have a 64-35 record in day games.

Play on: LA Angels

Jack Jones

Dallas Mavericks +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks must win this game if they want to catch the Los Angeles Lakers for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. While this is a back-to-back situation for them, it's not a big deal at all. That's because they played and beat the Los Angeles Clippers last night, and this game will also be played in the Staples Center in L.A. so there is no travel time for the Mavericks. I like Dallas to give the Lakers a run for their money here.

While the Lakers have been the best team since the All-Star Break, they are not overvalued because of it. That has been evident in recent games as the Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five contests overall as they continue to be huge favorites night in and night out. The Mavs are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Dallas owns the league's best road record at 27-10 SU & 24-13 ATS. The Lakers are 1-9 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Mavs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in L.A. Roll with Dallas Thursday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +113 over TAMPA BAY

How inspiring is it going to be for the Penguins today when Sidney Crosby steps on the ice and practices with the team for the first time in a long time? It will undoubtedly give the Pens a huge boost, as Sid is perhaps the most important player in the league and certainly the most important player on Pittsburgh. In any case, the Pens have won six of eight and it’s a rare occasion when they get outworked. The Lightning have won two in a row but that pair came against the Senators and the Hurricanes, the latter in the second game of a home and home series. Prior to that set, Tampa had dropped six of seven, which included defeats to the Panthers, Islanders and a pair of losses to Ottawa. There’s something not right with the Bolts right now, the least of which may be their goaltending. Dwayne Roloson is hit and miss. He’s a 41-year-old netminder that has a lot of logged time and the Bolts defence is not strong enough to bail him out when he’s off, as he can be on too many occasions. Tampa is heading into playoffs on the decline while the Pens are always pressing hard and no team plays with more determination Pittsburgh +113 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +212 over BOSTON

Toronto has won four of its past five games and over that stretch, it has defeated a Sabres team that has gone 7-1-1 in their last nine. The Leafs scored four times in that game and they also scored four on Buffalo on March 12. Both of those games are notable as Toronto tallied those numbers against Ryan Miller, whom over his last 18 starts, allowed four goals just twice, both to the Leafs. On March 19, the Leafs beat the Bruins by a score of 5-2 and Boston has not allowed more than four goals, let alone five, in 20 of its last 21 games. The Leafs offence is rolling strong and that makes them very appealing at this price. Boston is playing well but after successive wins over Montreal, Philly and Chicago to secure the division crown, there is certainly no sense of urgency on their side of things. The Bruins have struggled at home and the Leafs have beaten them in three of five contests this season, including one of two at TD Bank Center. The Maple Leafs are very likely going to miss the playoffs. However, they’re giving it everything they’ve got, and they’re playing as well as any squad at the moment. With the tremendous goaltending from James Reimer and their never-say-die attitude, Toronto is being severely undervalued here. Play: Toronto +212 (Risking 2 units).

Frank Jordan

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is quietly some picks to win the NL East despite the great starting pitching of Philadelphia cause they have a lot of injuries to deal with. Washington is looking for another improving year and get ready to cause damage . This match up of Lowe and Livan Hernandez is classic pair of innings eaters that will keep each team in the game. In this one look for Lowe and the Braves to be on top when the dust settles. Play Atlanta

Craig Trapp

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

On paper the improvements of MIL is impressive but most of those changes came in the pitching department and kind of ignored an offense that at times was pretty poor last year. Galarado is a stud but not against the Reds, 2-3 career mark and 5.56 ERA in eight starts. Volquez has something to prove after a terrible playoff start in game one, and he has had an extra 6 months to gain strength in his elbow. Reds lineup is top 10 in baseball and the bullpen also favors the Reds. Great value on the much better team.

David Chan

San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

I bet value where I see it. Sometimes, like this one, that involves laying some extra "wood."

The price on the Cardinals has actually come down. Before automatically ruling them out, consider that the Cards are 88-38 (+16.5) the last 126 times that they were home favorites with a price of -175 to -200!

The Cards are also 25-14 (+7.3) the last 39 times they played a home game with a total of 7 or less.

Additionally, the Cards are 462-358 (+38.3) their last 800 or so day games.

Carpenter was 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA last season and he gets it done on Opening Day!