Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, March 3,2011

Marc Lawrence

USC at Washington St.
Play: Washington St.

When the Cougars host the Trojans in a PAC 10 clash Thursday night in Pullman they will take the court tailing USC by one game in the conference standings knowing they are 5-1 ATS at home when playing with three or more days of rest this season. They are also 10-5-1 ATS in this series, including 4-1 when seeking revenge. Stay at home with the felines here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington State.

Cajun Sports

CS Fullerton vs. Pacific
Play: Pacific -11.5

The Pacific Tigers host Big West Conference rival Cal State Fullerton on Thursday night in Stockton. These teams met earlier this season back on December 30 at Titan Gym with Cal State coming away with a 54 to 51 victory as a 5.5-point home underdog. In that game the Tigers trailed by as many as nineteen points but tied the game late and lost on a three-pointer with four-tenths of a second remaining in the game. Pacific was at a disadvantage in that game as they were playing their second road game in three nights and fatigue was a factor late. Pacific will be fresh this time around and coming in off a loss, which was not the case in their first meeting as the Tigers, entered off a straight up victory. A check of our database reveals the Tigers are 20-9 ATS coming off an ATS loss as a favorite in their last game and now installed as a home favorite. They are 16-5 ATS in that situation if they are now a conference home favorite. Cal State is 2-14 SU on the road this season posting a record of 7-8 against the spread in those contests. The Titans average 69.5 points per game on the road this season with their defense allowing almost 78 points per game. Pacific is 11-2 SU at home versus Cal State the last 13 and 9-4 ATS. Our database tells us we want to Play ON CBB home favorites coming off back-to-back ATS losses on the road as a favorite, 82-54-3 ATS. We also want to Play ON them if they are a conference home favorite in the same situation because the record indicates a solid return on investment with a 67-42-2 ATS mark. Revenge is one of the most overused situations in any sport but there are times when it is relevant and this just happens to be one of those times. Lay the number with the host as they avenge that last second loss to the Titans in December.

Rob Vinciletti

Bradley vs. Drake
Play: Drake +1.5

This game is a right back rematch game between Bradley and Drake as they played last week. In that game Bradley demolished Drake 90-64. This may work in Drakes Favor here tonight as they are 5-1 with revenge for a 20 or more point loss. They are also 4-0 ats after allowing 80 or more points and have covered 7 of 10 vs losing teams. Drake was good enough to win the first game between these two earlier in the year. Look for Drake to do a much better job on defense and hold Bradley to a much lower shooting percentage then the 63% they shot last week. Look for Drake to advance to the next round.

Scott Spreitzer

Orlando @ Miami
PICK: Miami -4.5

Here we go again. Miami has lost two of their last three games and the media is starting to doubt the Heat. I expect the NBA title contender to have little trouble with Orlando tonight. Miami has taken two of three from the Magic this season, punishing Orlando 96-70 in this season's only other meeting in South Beach. While they may not reach that wide of a margin, I do expect a comfortable win for the home team. Miami won by four points in Orlando in the most recent meeting, but the final margin doesn't tell the entire story. The Heat actually held a 16-point advantage after three quarters. Some may say that Miami doesn't have a big man to handle Dwight Howard, but they do have multiple players inside and they have held Howard in check this season. Meanwhile, the Magic don't have an answer for LeBron. James has scored 91 points combined in three games against the Maqic on 32 of 56, 57% shooting. He's averaging almost 8 rpg and over 6 apg. The Magic enter the tilt just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog and the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS run in this series. I'm laying the points with Miami on Thursday night.

Jim Feist

Nuggets at Jazz
Pick: Under

Oddsmakers are basing this total on how these teams used to play, but the personnel on both sides changed dramatically last week at the NBA trade deadline. Both teams lost their sparkplugs on offense, Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams. Denver used a strong defensive effort to upset Boston, allowing 75 points. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 home games by the Jazz vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and the Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play the Nuggets/Jazz Under the total.

EZWINNERS

Wisconsin Badgers -6

Wisconsin has posted just a 4-5 away from Madison, due in part to subpar shooting but this is a good match up for the Badgers. Wisconsin has won three in a row in Bloomington, limiting the Hoosiers to just 54 points a game and 48 in the last two games. Indiana shot 41 percent overall and 17.2 percent from three point range in the three games. The Hoosiers are struggling right now and have dropped six straight games and three in a row to Top 25 opponents. I don't expect things to get any better for the Hoosiers tonight. Lay the points.

Brent Brooks

Drake +1

The Bulldogs are going to look to return the favor after they lost at Bradley by 26. In a weird scheduling oddity, these two teams face off in a back to back. The Bulldogs have won 7 of 10 conference games at home this season including their last four. The future is bright for Drake going into next year given the development of Rice this year. As well as Bradley has been playing of late, we are going to give the edge to Drake in this spot as they look for revenge and finishing off the regular season on a winning note. 1* Freebie on Drake.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz

The Nuggets are now an incredible 5-0 ATS since trading away Carmelo Anthony and 6-0 ATS overall since the All-Star Break. They won last night at home, by 40 points, over the Charlotte Bobcats, but now must make the quick turnaround and play the second night of back to backs in Utah, which is always tough. The Nuggets only SU loss post-Break came in the second night of back to backs in Portland. The Jazz have been bad since Jerry Sloan's departure and are in desperate need of a win. They are 22-10 ATS off a home loss.

Play on: Utah

Tom Freese

Orlando at Miami
Play: Orlando

Miami is 43-17 straight up this year. The Heat are 8-18 ATS their last 26 games after playing on 3 or more days of rest. The Heat 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 games vs. a team with win percentage of over 60%. Miami is 7-19-2 ATS off a straight up loss. Orlando is 39-22 straight up this year. The Magic are 4-0 ATS following an ATS loss. The Magic are 8-3 ATS their last 11 Thursday games. Orlando is 16-5 ATS by 6 or more points. The Magic are 13-6-1 ATS their last 20 meetings with the Heat.

Rocketman

Oregon vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona State -1.5

Oregon is 2-14 SU and 3-12 ATS last 3 years revenging a home loss vs an opponent. Oregon is scoring only 62.7 points per game on the road this year. Arizona State is 5-0 SU overall vs Oregon the past 3 seasons. Ducks are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games. Ducks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Ducks are 1-7-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona State tonight!

Frank Jordan

Wisconsin vs. Indiana
Play: Wisconsin -6.5

Wisconsin travels to Indiana as the number 10 team in the country with a 22-6 overall record and 12-4 in the Big Ten. Indiana is having a down year with a 12-17 record overall and just three Big Ten wins in 16 games. At home though Indiana has held their own with a 12-5 record and back in January held their own losing only by nine at Wisconsin. In this one look for Wisconsin to even up their road record at 5-5 with another win over Indiana. Play Wisconsin

Craig Trapp

Tennessee vs. South Carolina
Play: Under 133.5

Must win tonight for TENN and for them to win it must come on the defensive end of the court. SC really struggles against the top teams in the league to score consistently and tonight will be no different. TENN has played unders 10 of last 13 games. Jump on this easy total winner tonight.

Tom Stryker

Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest
PICK: Georgia Tech -5.5

Wake Forest has dropped 17 of its last 19 games overall including 13 of its last 14 in ACC action. Excluding their straight up home win over Virginia, the Demon Deacons have dropped 13 in conference play by an average of 19.9 points per game. Expect another blowout loss here.

Georgia Tech enters this contest off three consecutive ACC losses to Duke, Virginia and NC State. Fortunately for us, that works in the Yellow Jackets favor tonight. Off three or more straight up losses, Tech has ripped off an impressive 33-20 ATS mark including a stunning 30-14 ATS priced as a favorite or a single-digit underdog in this role.

Since knocking off North Carolina in Chapel Hill back on January 16th, 2010, Georgia Tech has struggled on foreign soil dropping 16 straight true road games. Every streak is made to be broken and Yellow Jackets head coach Paul Hewitt believes this is the spot where the Bees can get the job done. Earlier this season, Tech handled Wake with ease posting a 74-39 victory.

Under the direction of first-year coach Jeff Bzdelik, Wake Forest is on the verge of setting the single-season record for most straight up losses in a season with its next blemish. The Demon Deacons will give it their all like they've done in every game this year. Unfortunately, it will fall short once again. Take Georgia Tech.

SPORTS WAGERS

Ottawa +164 over ATLANTA

The Thrashers are in a serious funk and have fallen six points behind in the race for a playoff spot after a 4-12-5 run in their last 21 games. They’ve deserved better of late, as they really outplayed the Habs and Panthers in their last two losses but losing is contagious and an early goal by the opposition and Atlanta becomes very fragile with a “here we go again philosophy”. It also isn’t too inspiring when you play at home to an empty arena. More than that, however, is the price you have to lay to wager on the Thrashers, which is insane. The Sens are playing pressure free hockey. They’re getting great goaltending from newly acquired Craig Anderson and he’s 3-2-1 since joining the Sens with a 1.19 GAA. Ottawa is 4-3-1 since breaking an 11-game losing streak. Over its last four games they beat Philly 4-1, they beat the Panthers 5-1 and they lost to Buffalo 4-2 and the Bruins 1-0 in a game they allowed just 19 shots on net. That’s not bad and while they unloaded a lot of key vets, some young prospects have stepped in a given them a boost of energy. The Sens are loose, they’re playing well and the Thrashers are simply way overpriced here. Play: Ottawa +164 (Risking 2 units).

Columbus -½ +125 over EDMONTON

The Oilers rarely put together back-to-back strong efforts and after doing so against the Preds, expect the surging Jackets to come in here and take it to this host. C-Bus is coming off a 2-1 OT loss at Vancouver in a game they deserved to win. They dominated a good portion of that game, especially the first 10 minutes of the third period and they continue to press hard. The Jackets have picked up points in seven of their last eight games and they’re five points out of the final playoff spot. They’re four points back of Anaheim and Nashville and three points back of the Wild but they have two games in hand on all three of those teams, making this one absolutely crucial. The Oilers embark on a five-game trip after this one and that’s usually a “look-ahead” situation, as players prepare to hit the road. The Blue Jackets have no excuses here and after back-to-back losses to the Preds and Canucks, a loss here would be devastating and demoralizing. Play: Columbus -½ +125 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +177 over BOSTON

Wow, the Bruins haven’t lost in six games and they’re undefeated since they traded for Tomas Kaberle. All six wins were in regulation and on the road and rarely will you ever see a team go undefeated on a six-game trip. That’s nice, it really is and one must give it up for the B’s. However, let’s have a look at that trip. They beat Ottawa twice, the latter 1-0 in a game they were outshot 33-21. They beat the Oilers 3-2. They beat the Islanders, Calgary and Vancouver and the games against the Flames and Canucks could have gone either way. Now the Bruins play their first game at home after said trip. They’re 21-7 on the road and 15-12 at home. Of course they can win here, as the Bruins are among the upper echelon of the NHL. However, so, too, are the Bolts. A dangerous team that can beat anyone at anytime and they’re in a favorable spot here against the Bruins returning home after that trip that included that exhausting three-game excursion through Western Canada. Incidentally, these two have virtually the same records. They both have 37 wins and 19 losses but the difference is we get an incredible +177 in a good spot. Play: Tampa Bay +177 (Risking 2 units).

Minnesota +156 over N.Y. RANGERS

The best thing about this game is that the Wild were badly outplayed (again) on the Island last night and were down 3-0 very early in the second period. This guest rarely gets beat badly in back-to-back games and thus, you can expect them to come out much stronger tonight. We mentioned yesterday how the Wild have a genie following them around and that makes them very appealing taking back better than 7½-5. The Rangers struggles in their own rink continue. They’re one game under .500 at MSG after dropping back-to-back games to the Sabres and Lightning. This is just the Wild’s second trip to Madison Square in the past six years and one has to figure Minnesota to be completely jacked up for this one, especially after last night. Perhaps one of the reason’s that the Rangers struggle so much at home is because the opposition gets amped to play in the most famous arena in the world. In any event, the Wild offer up some tremendous value here. Play: Minnesota +156 (Risking 2 units).

PHILADELPHIA –1½ +134 over Toronto

The Maple Leafs are on a decent run with points in eight straight games. The problem is that all eight games were decided by a single goal and the last three have all gone into OT including two games against the depleted Pens. Those extremely close games take a toll and we’re talking about eight in a row. Leaf fans are talking playoffs but that’s not going to happen, as the Leafs schedule takes a turn for the worse with upcoming games against Philly twice, Chicago and Buffalo. Chances are they get zero points in those four games and end that nonesnse talk. So yeah, they’ve fooled some folks with wins over Pittsburgh, Atlanta, the Islanders and Montreal but when the worst player on the team is your captain, the writing is on the wall. Dion Phaneuf is the biggest stiff imaginable. He gets a ton of ice time and is nothing but a liability. He’s horrible defensively, he’s horrible on the PP and he hits the net with a shot about once every time attempts. Now he’s going to get a lot of ice time again against a potent offense that’s in a foul mood. Flyers have dropped three of five and they’re coming off a 4-1 loss to the Sens. No chance of them not responding. This is a great team that’s very well rested and that can’t wait to get back on the ice. This is not only a mismatch but it’s an extremely favorable spot for the Flyers. The fact that the oddsmakers are offering an appealing +210 on the very warm Leafs indicates that they want all the Toronto money they can find. Flyers roll. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +134 (Risking 2 units).