Matt Fargo
Fresno State vs. Idaho
Play: Idaho -6
Idaho has quietly put together a very solid season as it is 16-12 including an 8-7 record through the first 15 games in the WAC. The Vandals did open the season at 5-1 in the conference as they have dropped six of their last nine games but five of those came on the road and the lone home losses came against Boise St. and San Jose St. each by just three points. Playing at home has been a rare occurrence for Idaho as six of its last nine games have been on the road and on the season, just 11 of 28 games have been at home. Fresno St. is coming off a home loss to Boise St. over the weekend and now its hits the road where it is just 3-10 on the season. Two of those victories came against San Diego and CS-Bakersfield which are 6-23 and 9-19 respectively. The other victory away from home came at Louisiana Tech, the lone WAC road victory, which is just 2-12 in the conference. This is a revenge game for the Bulldogs but they will have a tough time here knowing the final home game of the season is on deck for Saturday. The Vandals have played four straight games on the road so they close out the season with two home games this weekend with this being the WAC finale. A win gets them to 9-7 and more importantly, secures a first round bye in the upcoming WAC Tournament as it can finish no worse than fourth in the conference. With some help, Idaho can actually secure second place but at this point, the Vandals need just a win to get to something that was not expected when the season began. Fresno St. is just 2-8 ATS at an underdog this season while going 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games revenging a loss where it scored fewer than 60 points. Even worse, under head coach Steve Cleveland, the Bulldogs are 9-24 ATS in their 33 games revenging a double-digit loss. Idaho meanwhile is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games following two straight games as a road underdog and it is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. The Vandals lock up a first round conference bye tonight. 3* Idaho Vandals
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Indiana +6.5
Wisconsin has struggled on the road, where it is just 4-5 this season. It has only shot 40.4 percent from the field in those games compared to 49.2 at home. The Badgers are just 2-2 in their last 4 road contests with losses at Penn State and Purdue. They were lucky to beat Iowa (needed OT) and Michigan in the other 2 during this span. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in those 4 road games. In addition, the Badgers will be much more concerned with their upcoming contest against Ohio State than they will the lowly Hoosiers. This leaves the door open for Indiana to give Wisconsin a game. It's the last home game of the season for Indiana, which means it will leave it all on the floor tonight. Plus, the Hoosiers have been respectable at home, where they are 12-5 on the season. The Hoosiers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Indiana played Wisconsin to a 9-point game in Madison and I believe the Hoosiers will keep this one even closer tonight. Take the points.
Steve Janus
2* Washington State -4
The Cougars will be looking for revenge tonight when they take on USC, as the Trojans beat Washington State at home earlier this season. Washington State simply isn't getting enough credit in this game after absolutely crushing Washington on the road in their last game. USC beat up on Arizona State in their last game, winning 62-46, but are just 3-11 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet Washington State!
Ray Monohan
St Johns vs. Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall +3½
Nice Big East matchup on tap tonight between the Red Storm vs. Pirates. Tip-off from the Prudential Center is set for 7 p.m. and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2. Recently St. John’s has established itself as the hottest team in the Big East with 6 straight wins including victories over 3 ranked opponents. Seton Hall is riding a three-game losing streak but is the best of the worst in the Big East with a 5-11 SU record in conference play. What Seton Hall does have going for them in this matchup is 1) grabbing the points at home 2) They've won seven of the last 10, including six straight at home. The Pirates won 59-50 last season in Queens, and all five of Seton Hall’s Big East home losses were by six points or less. They'll play the Storm tough at home again tonight. Some trends I like in this one include the Red Storm are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Seton Hall. The Pirates are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Jack Jones
Louisiana Tech PK
Louisiana Tech should be favored tonight at home in a game that is pretty evenly matched if these teams were playing on a neutral court. Nevada is 11-17 this season while LA Tech is 12-18. Looking at home/away numbers, it's clear that the Bulldogs are the right play Thursday. LA Tech is 8-4 at home this season, winning by 5.2 PPG and limiting opponents to just 58.7 PPG and 39.8% shooting. Nevada is 2-12 on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.3 PPG and scoring just 63.9 PPG on 39.6% shooting.
LA Tech will be looking to revenge a 66-58 loss at Nevada on 1/22 in their first meeting of the season. The Bulldogs are 69-47 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent since 1997. LA Tech is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997. Kerry Rupp is 22-8 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent as the coach of LA Tech. David Carter is 2-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of Nevada. The Wolf Pack are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday.
Sean Murphy
UCLA @ Washington
PICK: Over 149.5
It's hard to believe that a team playing as well as UCLA can be listed as an 8.5-point underdog, especially in the Pac-10 where it seems that every game is up for grabs, regardless of the matchup.
With that said, I feel the better play in this game is the 'over'.
UCLA has come a long way since it last faced Washington on New Year's Eve. The Bruins scored only 63 points in an 11-point loss on that day but have since won 12 of their last 15 games. They're not exactly an offensive juggernaut, but have been very efficient over their last three contests, shooting 79-for-157 (50.3%).
Washington owns a tremendous home court advantage, having won 13 of 14 games in Seattle this season. However, that stems from the Huskies stellar offensive play. By no means have they been a defensive stalwart, allowing over 70 points in five of their seven Pac-10 home games.
The Huskies don't mind getting involved in track meets, particularly here at home. They're not afraid to foul opposing players going to the basket, a luxury afforded to them by their tremendous depth. They were burned by that strategy last weekend as they sent Washington State to the free throw line 36 times, and the Cougars hit 32 of those freebies en route to an 80-69 upset win. Still, I don't expect them to move away from that gameplan tonight.
Of course, Washington's offense ranks among the best not only in the Pac-10, but in the entire nation. The Huskies are averaging a ridiculous 94.1 points per game on 49.9% shooting at Alaska Airlines Arena this season. As well as the Bruins have played defensively, they're going to have a tough time containing the Huskies tonight. Note that Washington has scored 97 and 86 points in its last two home meetings with UCLA.
The over is 21-8-1 in UCLA's last 30 lined road contests and 10-4 in Washington's last 14 here at home. Expect both of those trends to continue on Thursday night. Take the over.
Tony Stoffo
Blues vs. Capitals
Play: Under 5.5
With the Blues offense struggling having been shutout in their last 2 games, and the Capitals continuing their low scoring affairs now having seen the Under be the right side in 8 out of their last 10 games makes for a solid release on the under in this spot for this evening. Under is 6-0 in Blues last 6 road games. Under is 10-1 in Capitals last 11 Thursday games. Under is 8-1-1 in Capitals last 10 vs. Western Conference.
Info Plays
3* Miami Heat -5
Reasons why Miami will cover:
1) The Heat have lost two of their last three and will be more than ready to take on the Magic at home tonight. Miami has lost three straight against the spread, but are still 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss. Putting the odds heavily in their favor that they will not only win but cover tonight!
2) Orlando is just 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season, and are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
3) The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.