SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
L.A. Lakers (46-15, 26-32-3 ATS) at Miami (30-31, 29-32 ATS)
The Lakers open a three-game East Coast trip with a stop inside the American Airlines Arena for a matchup against the Heat.
Los Angeles has won three straight (1-1-1 ATS) overall, including Tuesday’s 122-99 rout of Indiana, cashing as an 11½-point home chalk. The Lakers got 24 points and six assists from Kobe Bryant, while Pau Gasol added 14 points and pulled down 16 boards. The Lakers are 17-10 on the highway this season, but only 11-15-1 ATS away from home. They snapped an 0-5-1 ATS slump with Tuesday’s blowout of the Pacers.
A 110-106 home win over Golden State on Tuesday snapped Miami’s four-game losing streak, but it came up well short as a 10½-point favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Dwyane Wade poured in 35 points and dished out 12 assists to lead the way as the Heat erupted offensively after averaging just 82.3 ppg in their previous four contests.
The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series, including the Lakers’ last-second 108-107 victory on Dec. 4, falling well short as a 12½-point home favorite. Miami has cashed in five of the last seven – including the last three in a row – all as an underdog.
Los Angeles is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 Thursday games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine against a team with a losing record, but it is on ATS slides of 1-5-1 overall, 1-4-1 as a favorite, 1-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 1-5-1 as a road chalk of less than five points. The Heat have cashed in four of five as an underdog and 10 of 14 against Pacific Division teams, but they are on ATS skids of 1-5 at home, 1-5 on Thursday and 9-23 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 7-1 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 21-7 on Thursday and 20-8-1 after a spread-cover. Miami has also been on several “under” streaks, including 25-10-1 overall, 19-7-1 on Thursday, 7-1 at home, 42-20 after a straight-up win and 5-1-1 as an underdog. In this series, the “under” has been the play in seven of the last 10 meetings overall and five straight in South Beach.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Utah (38-22, 36-21-3 ATS) at Phoenix (39-24, 37-26 ATS)
The red-hot Suns look for their seventh win in their last eight games when they welcome the Jazz to the US Airways Center for a key Western Conference matchup.
Utah has alternated wins and losses in its last six (3-3 ATS), including a 108-104 loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Monday, failing as a 6½-point favorite. The Jazz were outrebounded by Los Angeles and shot just 38-for-89 from the field for 42.7 percent. They have now dropped two straight on the highway after rattling off seven consecutive road wins (SU and ATS).
The Suns scored a 127-101 victory over the Clippers in Los Angeles on Wednesday, easily cashing as a 4½-point favorite. Amare Stoudemire led the way for Phoenix with 30 points and 14 rebounds as his team cashed for the eighth straight game, and sixth straight as a favorite. The Suns have won five straight in front of the home fans, cashing in each contest.
The home team has won five straight in this rivalry, with Utah scoring a 124-115 win in Salt Lake City back on Jan. 25, cashing as a seven-point favorite. The Jazz have cashed in six of the last eight series clashes and is the last road team to score a win in this matchup, winning 126-118 back in March 2008 as a 5½-point pup. In fact, Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to the Arizona desert.
Utah is on several positive ATS streaks, including 34-15-3 overall, 10-2-1 on the road, 14-4-2 against Western Conference teams, 9-1-1 on Thursdays and 5-0-1 as an underdog. Phoenix is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 Thursday contests, but otherwise is on several positive pointspread runs, including 14-3 overall, 5-0 at home, 6-0 against Western Conference teams, 6-0 as a favorite and 8-1 against teams with a winning percentage higher than .600.
The Jazz have topped the total in five straight overall, 28 of 41 as a road ‘dog, 34 of 51 as an underdog regardless of venue and five of six against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Suns are on several “under” runs, including 10-4 overall, 6-2 as a favorite, 4-0 on the second night of a back-to-back and 5-1 at home. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Dayton (19-9, 13-12 ATS) at Richmond (22-7, 16-9 ATS)
Richmond tries to bounce back from its first loss in more than a month when it welcomes the Flyers to the Robins Center for an Atlantic 10 clash.
Dayton snapped a two-game slide in emphatic fashion Saturday, hammering UMass 96-68 as a 15-point home favorite, its most lopsided victory of the season. The Flyers, who also halted a four-game ATS drought by crushing UMass, have split their last 16 games, all within the A-10. However, they’re 1-5 on the road during this stretch (2-4 ATS), including 0-3 SU and ATS in the last three.
The Spiders took an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) to Xavier on Sunday and suffered a heartbreaking 78-76 double-overtime defeat, but they easily covered as a 7½-point road underdog. Richmond has won 13 of 14 home games (6-5 ATS), and since a 12-point home loss to Charlotte on Jan. 20, the Spiders have won four in a row at home (3-1 ATS) by an average of 18.8 ppg. For the season, they outscore visitors by 14.5 ppg (72.6-58.1).
Richmond crushed Dayton 83-63 as a 4½-point home underdog last year, but the Flyers got revenge twice thereafter with a 69-63 home victory as a 9½-point favorite and a 69-64 win as a 4½-point chalk in the Atlantic-10 tournament. The home team has won each of the last seven regular-season clashes (4-3 ATS). The underdog has gotten the money eight times in the last 10 meetings.
In addition to failing to cover in four of its last five overall and four of its last five on the road, Dayton is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Spiders have come up short in five of their last seven on Thursday, but otherwise they’re on ATS hot streaks of 8-1 overall (all in conference), 23-7-1 after a SU loss, 6-1 following a spread-cover and 5-1 against winning teams.
These teams have topped the total in each of their last five series meetings, and the over is 4-0 in Richmond’s last four against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RICHMOND and OVER
USC (16-12, 11-14-2 ATS) at Arizona State (20-9, 11-14 ATS)
Arizona State hopes to bolster its sagging Big Dance resume when it welcomes the slumping Trojans to Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe, Ariz., as the final weekend of Pac-10 regular-season play tips off.
USC has dropped three in a row SU and ATS, and the offense is to blame, as the Trojans managed just 47, 44 and 44 points in the three defeats. Last weekend, they hosted Oregon and Oregon State and lost both games as a huge favorite, falling 55-44 to the Ducks as a 10½-point chalk and 49-44 to the Beavers as an eight-point choice. The three-game slide follows a four-game winning streak for USC, which is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine outings.
The Trojans conclude their season tonight and Saturday at Arizona, as they’re ineligible for postseason play – including the Pac-10 tournament – because of school-imposed sanctions.
The Sun Devils’ four-game winning streak ended with Saturday’s ugly 62-46 loss at Cal, falling way short as a seven-point road underdog. Arizona State actually took a 30-29 halftime lead then got outscored 33-16 in the final 20 minutes. The Sun Devils have still won six of their last eight overall and they’re 14-3 at Wells Fargo Arena this season, averaging 70.3 ppg and allowing 54.8 on their home floor. Despite that, they’re just 5-8 ATS in lined home games (1-4 ATS last five), and they’ve failed to cover in six of their last 10 overall.
USC crushed the Sun Devils 47-37 as a 2½-point home favorite back on Jan. 2 in the second conference game for both squads. The Trojans are 4-1 SU in the last five series meetings and 3-1 ATS in the last four. The home team has taken the last seven regular-season battles (6-1 ATS), but the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 16.
The Trojans’ 1-5 ATS slump overall is offset by positive pointspread runs of 39-18-1 after a non-cover and 8-3 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Arizona State has cashed in 18 of its last 26 after a non-cover, but is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games after three or more consecutive road contests.
The low-scoring Trojans are on “under” runs of 18-7-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 12-3-1 in Pac-10 action, 4-0 on Thursday, 4-0 after a SU defeat, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 against winning teams. Similarly, ASU carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 11-3 at home and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, four of the last five meetings between these rivals have stayed low, though the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Tempe.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at Miami
The Lakers look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog between 1 and 4 1/2 points. LA is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-4 1/2)
Game 501-502: Memphis at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 115.752; Chicago 124.431
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 503-504: LA Lakers at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 124.657; Miami 119.231
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-4 1/2); Over
Game 505-506: Utah at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.610; Phoenix 120.358
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+1 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Seton Hall at Rutgers
The Pirates look to take advantage of a Rutgers team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home underdog between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Seton Hall is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-4)
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 507-508: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 50.977; Eastern Michigan 58.733
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 8
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-4 1/2)
Game 509-510: Ball State at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 49.070; Western Michigan 55.229
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 5
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 9
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+9)
Game 511-512: Buffalo at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 54.937; Miami (OH) 57.176
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 2
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 4
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4)
Game 513-514: Bowling Green at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 53.381; Ohio 59.748
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 8
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+8)
Game 515-516: Seton Hall at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 64.421; Rutgers 57.901
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 4
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-4)
Game 517-518: Dayton at Richmond
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 64.629; Richmond 69.089
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 3
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-3)
Game 519-520: Toledo at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 40.600; Northern Illinois 49.225
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+11 1/2)
Game 521-522: Providence at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 62.500; Pittsburgh 72.575
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 11
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+11)
Game 523-524: UCLA at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 61.844; Arizona 65.932
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+5)
Game 525-526: Hawaii at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 45.875; Boise State 59.557
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Boise State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-10)
Game 527-528: LSU at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 56.828; Mississippi 67.702
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 11
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+12 1/2)
Game 529-530: USC at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: USC 59.666; Arizona State 69.578
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 10
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-7 1/2)
Game 531-532: Washington State at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 61.150; Oregon State 64.989
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 4
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-3)
Game 533-534: New Mexico State at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 58.012; Nevada 64.018
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 6
Vegas Line: Nevada by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+6 1/2)
Game 535-536: LouiSIAna Tech at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: LouiSIAna Tech 59.682; Fresno State 53.345
Dunkel Line: LouiSIAna Tech by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: LouiSIAna Tech
Game 537-538: UC Davis at CS Northridge
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 47.142; CS-Northridge 53.601
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 5
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-5)
Game 539-540: San Jose State at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 54.979; Idaho 64.661
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Idaho by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-5 1/2)
Game 541-542: Washington at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 68.288; Oregon 63.758
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+5 1/2)
Game 543-544: Pacific at CS-Fullerton
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 57.424; CS-Fullerton 52.071
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Pacific by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-2 1/2)
Game 545-546: Southern Illinois vs. Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 58.413; Drake 54.887
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 4
Dunkel Pick: Drake (+4)
Game 547-548: Evansville vs. Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 52.875; Missouri State 59.304
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+9 1/2)
Game 549-550: Penn State at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 59.718; Michigan State 75.029
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-13)
Game 551-552: East Tennessee State vs. Campbell
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State 49.458; Campbell 54.084
Dunkel Line: Campbell by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 553-554: Belmont vs. Mercer
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 55.520; Mercer 48.491
Dunkel Line: Belmont by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 555-556: Winthrop vs. Radford
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 45.520; Radford 50.392
Dunkel Line: Radford by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 557-558: NC Asheville at Coastal Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: NC Asheville 45.806; Coastal Carolina 53.121
Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 559-560: Monmouth at Quinnipiac
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 39.833; Quinnipiac 54.098
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 561-562: Central Connecticut at Robert Morris
Dunkel Ratings: Central Connecticut 44.368; Robert Morris 54.212
Dunkel Line: Robert Morris by 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 563-564: St. Francis (PA) at Mt. St. Mary's
Dunkel Ratings: St. Francis (PA) 45.382; Mt. St. Mary's 58.790
Dunkel Line: Mt. St. Mary's by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 565-566: Fairleigh Dickinson at Long Island
Dunkel Ratings: Fairleigh Dickinson 41.174; Long Island 48.753
Dunkel Line: Long Island by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Toronto at Boston
The Leafs look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 1-10 in its last 11 home games. Toronto is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Leafs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+165)
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 1-2: NY Islanders at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.299; Atlanta 12.402
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Over
Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.851; NY Rangers 11.279
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 5-6: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.391; Boston 10.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+165); Under
Game 7-8: Tampa Bay at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.353; Washington 13.137
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-290); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-290); Over
Game 9-10: Ottawa at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.855; Carolina 11.208
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-110); Over
Game 11-12: Los Angeles at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 13.007; Nashville 10.929
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+105); Over
Game 13-14: St. Louis at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.445; Dallas 11.134
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+115); Under
Game 15-16: Colorado at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.118; Phoenix 10.816
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 17-18: Montreal at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.589; San Jose 11.311
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose
Dunkel Pick: San Jose and Over
James Patrick Sports
Dayton vs. Richmond
The Spiders are sharing the Atlantic 10 Conference lead for the first time in (24) years and just had an (Cool game winning streak snapped in a double overtime loss at Xavier. The home team has cashed winning tickets in (4) of (5) ATS and Richmond is (8-1) ATS their past (9) overall. The Flyers have been grounded in Thursday action with a (3-9) ATS mark and Big Game James Patrick's Atlantic 10 selection is on Richmond Spiders in Thursday College Basketball action.
Marc Lawrence
Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
When the Bulls host the Grizzlies in the Windy City Thursday evening they will do so knowing the home team in this series has ripped off nine straight covers in a row. In addition, Chicago is 8-4-2 ATS at home off a loss and 6-3 ATS at he against unrested opposition this season. With the Bulls off a double-digit loss and Memphis in off a double revenge affair at New Orleans last night, look for Chicago to improve on those numbers tonight.
BIG AL
Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls
In its last game, the Bulls were blown out, 116-92, as a 1-point home favorite, by the Atlanta Hawks. Thus, Chicago failed to cover the spread by 25 points! Off that big home loss, I look for Vinny Del Negro's men to rebound here at home vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, as they fall into a super 34-8 ATS system. What we want to do is play on any NBA home team off a home game in which they failed to cover by 25+ points, if they're matched up against a foe off exactly one win. NBA teams, off an embarrassing game in front of their home fans, tend to play much better if their next game is also at home. With Memphis in off an upset win last night at New Orleans, we'll fade the Grizzlies here at the United Center.
Play on: Chicago
VEGAS EXPERTS
Dayton at Richmond
We don't care about 'last home game' scenarios here as Dayton needs the game worse. Note that six of the Flyers' seven road losses have come by six points or less and the other was to Temple over the weekend. Five of the losses have come by four or less. Dayton swept the Spiders last year. Richmond has a revenge match with Charlotte on deck.
Play on: Dayton
Frank Jordan
Penn State vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State
Penn State are 11-18 overall just 3-7 on the road and 3-11 in conference play. Michigan State is number 12 in the country with a 22-7 record and in 15 home games are 13-2. Michigan State still has an outside shot at a tie for the Big 10 title if they win their last two games. Look for Michigan State to finish up strong starting with a monster 25 point win at home over Penn State before taking on instate rival Michigan on Sunday. Play Michigan State
Craig Trapp
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Utah Jazz +1
The Jazz have owned PHO lately going 6-2 ATS overall and 7-1 ATS at PHO. Really like UTAH as they are rested whereas PHO is coming off back to back as they played in LAC last night. The Jazz are one of the hottest teams in the league on the road winning 4 of 6 and even better 5-1 ATS. Look for Utah to really work over a tired PHO team.
Sam Martin
Seton Hall at Rutgers
Prediction: Rutgers
We like Seton Hall this year, and feel they are a bit underrated. However, they are not a good road team, going just 1-6 straight up in conference play. And with Rutgers scoring home wins over Georgetown and Notre Dame, they have the momentum and confidence to score another outright win here tonight. Rutgers has quietly covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, and they can at least stay close enough here tonight. 5* Play on Rutgers.
LARRY NESS
USC @ Arizona State
PICK: Arizona State -7.5
California (20-9 / 12-5) clinched at least a share of the Pac-10 regular-season championship by blasting Arizona State 62-46 in Berkeley last Saturday. The Bears will win the Pac -10 outright if it wins at Stanford this coming Saturday. Still, the only way the Bears can feel really secure on Selection Sunday is to win the Pac-10 tournament. If not, the Bears will be sitting on pins and needles. That goes double for both Arizona State (20-9 / 10-6) and Washington (19-9 / 9-7). The Sun Devils finish with home games vs USC (Thursday) and then UCLA (Saturday). A loss by Cal on Saturday and an ASU weekend sweep, will give the Sun Devils a share of the conference title. As weak as the Pac-10 has been this year, could the committee really pass over the Pac-10 regular-season champion (or co-champion) for an at-large bid. Remember, since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams (now 65) back in 1985, all "Big Six" conferences have placed at least two schools in each NCAA field. Truth be told, Herb Sendek has done a good coaching job this year, after losing Pac-10 player-of-the-year James Harden (20.1-5.1-4.2) plus the 6-9 Pendergraph (14.5-8.2) from LY's team. The 6-10 Boateng (8.5-6.7) is the team's lone big man, as the team's strength is its trio of guards Abbott (12.3-4.4), Glasser (8.5-4.9 APG) and Lockett (7.4-3.7) plus 6-6 swingman Kuksiks (11.4-3.2). It's been a rough season for USC with Floyd leaving and probation swirling around the entire athletic program. The Trojans have seen mass defections from back-to-back NCAA and 20-win teams. Mayo (20.7-4.5-3.3) and Jefferson (12.1-6.3) left early from a 21-win team in 2008, while Gibson (14.3-9.0), DeRozan (13.9-5.70 and Hackett (12.3-4.2-4.7) from LY's 22-win team. Senior guard Lewis (13.7) and 6-10 sophomore Vucevic (11.2-9.8) are the core of this year's 16-12 (8-8) team, one which will happy to see this season end. ASU has yet to settle for the NIT, so expect a weekend sweep of the two LA schools, beginning right here.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +10.5
After an absolutely dominant performance against the New York Knicks, the Cavs should experience a letdown tonight. Playing the worst team in the NBA doesn't usually excite the best team in the league either. In fact, that's a big reason why Cleveland is 0-3 ATS versus the Nets this season, not winning by more than 10 points in any of those three games. Plus, plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the Nets and the points for 1 unit.
JIM FEIST
UTAH JAZZ / PHOENIX SUNS
TAKE OVER
Utah is going to its strength, the uptempo offense. The Jazz scored 133 points on Houston, part of a 5-0 run over the total. Of course, they allowed 103 or more points in four of those five games. Now they face the King of uptempo teams, the run-and-gun Suns, led by sparkplug Steve Nash. Phoenix allows plenty of points and this is the second of a back to back spot for the Suns. They've been really bad defensively in those situations, including two games recently against the Bobcats giving up 125 and 114 points to "defensive-oriented" Charlotte. The last time these teams met it was a 124-115 final, 18 points over the total. Play the Jazz/Suns Over the total.
EZWINNERS
Phoenix Suns -1
The Suns are a very hot team right now and they have actually been sparked by their defensive play! Phoenix has won six out of their last seven games and they are 7-0 against the spread in those games and they are on a 13-3 run against the spread overall. Still the top scoring team in the NBA, the Suns are also playing defense with more regularity. The Suns are allowing just 97.4 points since the all star break and have limited opponents to fewer than 90 points three times which is something the Suns did not do once in their first 53 games of the season. The Jazz continue to be just a mediocre team on the road this season after losing their last road game to the Clippers to drop them to 14-14 away from home. The home team has won six out of the last seven meetings between these two teams and I look for that to continue in this game. Lay the points.
Great Lakes Sports
Dayton at Richmond
Play: Dayton Flyers
The Dayton Flyers are on a nice run going 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 90 points or more in their previous game, and the Dayton Flyers are a stellar 8-2 ATS when playing in their last ten games in the role of a road underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. The Dayton Flyers is also a very solid 7-3 ATS when playing in their last ten games vs a team with a winning percentage above .600, and the underdog is also an outstanding 8-2 ATS when playing their last ten games in this series. We look for the Dayton Flyers to pull off the upset in this Atlantic 10 showdpown to grab the road ATS Win&Cover tonight.
John Ryan
Pacific vs. CS Fullerton
Play: CS Fullerton +3
3* graded play on Cal-State Fullerton (CSF) as they take on Pacific in Big West action set to start at 11:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that CSF will win this game. On January 21st, Pacific defeated CSF 80-73 and CSF covered by the hook. This revenge situation has served CSF bettors well in past games. CSF is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 3 seasons. CSF is projected to score between 67 and 74 points based on the model. Note that in past games Pacific has not done well when allowing 67 to 74 points sporting marks of 0-2 ATS this season, 1-12 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 21-48 ATS since 1997. Take Cal State Fullerton.