SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON –1½ +1.75 over Toronto
The Maple Leafs continue to defy logic and they continue to be the laughing stock of the NHL. What they did yesterday was for the sake of making deals because Brian Burke just loves to see his name in the paper and loves to be the center of attention. He was glowing when the media hounds were swarming him yesterday. When Burke arrived in Toronto he said he’s going to rebuild this team from the draft yet he went out and traded two first round picks for Phil Kessel. Kessel is good but he’s not a guy you build a team around. Now the Leafs are completely depleted in terms of NHL talent and the rest of this season is basically a “preseason” stretch in which players will be evaluated. So, let’s see what’s left. Only three players on the club have hit double digits in goals. Of the top five scorers on the team, three are defensemen, one is Phil Kessel and the other is injured. The Leafs top four centers are Kyle Bozak (rookie); John Mitchell (has regressed faster than Getzlaf’s hairline); Rickard Wallin and Wayne Primeau. As a group, they’ve scored 10 goals in 143 games played this season. The Leafs may not win another game this season and that’s not a joke either. Playing the Leafs will be equivalent to playing a minor league team and losing to them could not be more embarrassing, especially for desperate clubs like Boston. The Bruins should beat this team by five goals tonight and that’s all there is to it. Play: Boston –1½ +1.75 (Risking 2 units).
CAROLINA +1.00 over Ottawa
The Canes didn’t miss a beat after the break, as they had won five straight heading into it and beat the Leafs 5-1 after it. Carolina has now scored four goals or more in five of its last six games and they’re completely healthy too. Justin Peters looks like he’s been around for years. This kid is so poised, so good and so confident it’s scary and he’ll get the start again tonight. Peters is 3-0 this year and has a save percentage of 95.7%. Of all the teams in the NHL the Senators needed a break least of all. They were red-hot and came out of the gate with a 4-1 loss at home to the Gaborik-less Rangers. That was just one game and likely doesn’t mean a whole lot but this isn’t about playing against Ottawa. This is about playing on the resurgent Canes at home laying absolutely nothing. Play: Carolina +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +1.09 over DALLAS
You have to love the way the Blue Notes came out of the gate with an impressive 5-2 win over Phoenix. Scoring five on the Coyotes is significant but even more significant is the Blues determination. They’ve now won four in a row and that includes wins over Detroit and Washington as well as the aforementioned Coyotes. They’ve scored four or more in all of those wins while the Stars were buried 5-1 by the Kings upon its return to action on Tuesday. The Blues need to win a lot of games if they hope to make the playoffs but last year they were in a similar predicament and they went 13-5-2 in their last 20 games and slipped into sixth place in the Western Conference playoffs. They looked extremely sharp on Tuesday while the Stars did not and if momentum counts for anything the Blues should keep it going here. Any take-back here has to be considered tremendous value. Play: St. Louis +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.04 over NASHVILLE
Speaking of hot teams that didn’t miss a beat and one need not look further than these Kings. L.A. has now won three in a row and 11 of its last 13 games and one of those losses came in OT. No team in the NHL was hotter going into the break and after it the Kings looked even better. Its two Olympians, Jack Johnson and Drew Doughty were the two best players on the ice and its worth noting the club went 2-2 on the power play in that 5-1 win over the Stars. Nashville has labored at home with just 17 wins in 29 games, which is almost identical to its road record. The Preds are not an easy team to beat but this isn’t about wagering against them. This is about taking back a small tag on a team that has a better chance of winning than the team it’s facing, as these Kings are too hot to ignore as a pooch. Play: Los Angeles +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Stephen Nover
Southern Illinois at DRAKE (+4)
In Conference Tourney action tonight, as I take a look at So Illinois at Drake.
Southern Illinois finished the regular-season just 6-12 in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Salukis haven't lost that many league games since 1996-97.
Two of those defeats came to Drake. The Bulldogs won 70-65 in Carbondale and 79-72 at home. Drake made more free throws in those two victories than Southern Illinois attempted from the foul line.
Southern Illinois has failed to cover seven of the past eight times it has played on a neutral court.
Drake is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games. The Bulldogs also are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times it has played Southern Illinois.
Look for Josh Young, Drake's all-time leading scorer, to lead the Bulldogs past the Salukis once again.
2♦ DRAKE
Chris Jordan
Evansville at MISSOURI STATE (-9')
I know the Bears finished 8-10 in the conference following a 2-0 start, and I realize they took their biggest lumps on the road in Missouri Valley Conference play, but the fact remains Evansville is horrible this season and doesn’t stand a chance in this contest.
Remember, in just its second season under coach Cuonzo Martin, Missouri State was receiving votes in the national polls after racing out to a 10-0 start. Its 10th win was a 75-64 road win over St. Louis U., just three days before an overtime loss at Arkansas ended the Bears' perfect start.
The Bears rebounded easily by knocking off conference foes Evansville and Illinois State and were sitting at 12-1. Then it all came crumbling down. They lost four of their next five games and ended up going 6-6 the rest of the way, including season-ending losses to Wichita State and Illinois State.
Now it’s time for redemption. The Bears are much better than their second half of the season showing, and they’ll be out to prove that tonight.
Lay the chalk in this opening round clash.
2♦ MISSOURI STATE
Karl Garrett
Memphis at CHICAGO (-7)
Free play run of 9-3 my last 12 comp play selections!
Time for the Bulls to nip their 2-game losing streak in the bud as they host a Memphis team that was on court last night in New Orleans.
Memphis is just 7-8 against the spread when playing with no rest, and look to be in a bad spot tonight against the rested host.
Chicago stands at 15-12-2 against the spread at home this year, and this series has seen the home team win the last 9 series meetings. The host has also covered the last 9 meetings, and is on an 15-2 series spread run the last 17 meetings.
Throw in the fact the favorite is 11-4 the last 15 times these teams have clashed, and you have a play on the Bulls minus the points at home this Thursday night.
1♦ CHICAGO
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers (-4) at MIAMI
I'm 61-29-3 with my last 93 FREE selections and tonight I have an NBA winner for you as I lay the chalk with the Lakers in Miami to take on the Heat.
For the first time in a long time, the Lakers looked dominant on Tuesday, killing the Pacers 122-99 in Los Angeles as 11 ½-point favorites. That is just what this team needed as it heads out on a three-game trip back East, beginning tonight in Miami against Dwyane Wade and the Heat.
I’ll lay the chalk with Los Angeles in this one as the offense looked sharp on Tuesday. Kobe Bryant had 24 points and six assists and fellow All Star Pau Gasol had 14 points and 16 rebounds.
Miami edged Golden State in South Beach on Tuesday and snapped the Heat’s four-game losing streak. The 110-106 win did not get the Heat the cover as 10 ½-point favorites and didn’t solve many of their issues as Wade still had to do just about everything for this team to win.
Neither one of these teams has been much at the betting window lately, but the Lakers can blow this thing out if they can contain Wade. Look for Artest to work his magic against him in this one and expect the big men from Los Angeles – Gasol and Andrew Bynum – to dominate this game.
Lay the road chalk and play the Lakers.
3♦ L.A. LAKERS
Tom Freese
San Jose St at Idaho
Idaho is 13-15 overall and they are 4-10 in League Play Guard Mac Hudson scores 14.3 points a game. Guard Kashif Watson scores 10.5 points a game. Guard Steffan Johnson scores 9.5 points a game. Center Marvin Jefferson scores 8.9 points and 6.1 rebounds a game. No other player scores more than 6 points a game. The Vandals score 70.4 points a game and they shoot just 67% from the foul line. Idaho is 9-19 ATS their last 28 games as home favorites and they are 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games. San Jose St is 14-14 overall and 6-8 in League Play. Guard Adrian Oliver scores 22.9 points a game while shooting 41.7% from behind the arc. Center Chris Oakes scores 10.9 points and 9 rebounds a game. Guard Robert Owens scores 10.6 points a game. Guard Mac Peterson scores 10.1 points a game. The Spartans score 74.6 points a game and they shoot 40.5% from behind the line. San Jose St is 5-2 ATS their last 7 games off a straight up win and they are 5-1 ATS their last 6 Thursday games. PLAY ON SAN JOSE ST -
Tom Stryker
WASHINGTON (-) over Oregon
Even though MacArthur Court is one of the toughest venues in college basketball, my hard earned dough will be on Washington Thursday night as the Huskies look to avenge a 90-79 loss they suffered to Oregon at home back on January 2nd.
The Ducks enter this contest with a little bit of momentum off back-to-back straight up road dog wins at USC and UCLA. Unfortunately, this Oregon bunch still has a lot to prove. In conference play, UO has really been at its worst lately posting a soft 14-36 SU and 19-31 ATS record including a dismal 7-21 SU and ATS in this role running with four or more days of rest.
There is a solid college system that goes against the Ducks too. Since the 1993-94 season, home teams that return off back-to-back straight up road dogs wins priced as a pup of +6 or more in each game are a poor 15-26 ATS. If our host is matched up against a foe that checks in with momentum of their own off a SU and ATS win, this situation crashes to a nasty 5-14 ATS and has dropped 10 straight times!
UW is still on the "bubble" and the Huskies need wins to pad their resume. If Washington falls here, its March Madness hopes will suffer a serious blow. Last year, the Huskies left Mac Court with a convincing 84-69 victory. In revenge and with so much on the table, UW will get the job done. Take Washington. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
Matt Fargo
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan -4.5
Three weeks ago, Eastern Michigan was toiling in the middle of the pack in the MAC West but just like that, the Eagles can clinch at least a share of the division title tonight with a win. Eastern Michigan is far from a great team but it is experienced and is peaking at the right time. The Eagles have won four straight conference games to go from 4-7 to 8-7 in the MAC and currently share first place with Ball St. and Central Michigan. If Ball St. beats Western Michigan on Thursday, it will share the title with the winner of this game and I believe that the home team has a huge edge. The Eagles are 11-3 at home this season and this is with one of the worst attendance averages in the entire country. A bigger crown is expected tonight to watch the Eagles go for their first division title since 1995-96 and Eastern Michigan will earn a first-round bye and the second seed in the conference tournament with a win. It is senior night and two of the best will be playing their final home game in Ypsilanti. Point guard Carlos Medlock and center Justin Dobbins will be playing their final game on the Eastern Michigan campus and while the years have been tough, both have done a lot in the program and are on numerous statistical lists. Eastern Michigan is 16-13 overall and has its most victories in a season since the 1997-98 team won 20 games so despite some inconsistencies, it has been a special season and can get even better after tonight. Central Michigan was the preseason pick to win the MAC West and so far it has met those expectations as it is in position to at least share the division with a 8-7 record. The Chippewas were picked to win the division because it is so weak and not because this is a team that is exceptionally strong. Making matter worse is the fact that the stretch run has been a tough one as the Chippewas are on a 2-5 conference run heading into the season finale and that negative momentum is a huge disadvantage. On the season, Central Michigan has played the nation’s 210th ranked schedule which is extremely soft and as a result you would think some of their numbers would be inflated but that is hardly the case. The Chippewas are shooting just 40.7 percent from the floor while their offensive efficiency rating is a dismal 99.9. This has resulted in, or resulted from, an assist/turnover ratio that sits at a putrid 0.74, which is 307th in the country. Eastern Michigan is right at break even in that category and that ratio jumps to 1.24 in home games. Conversely, the Chippewas ratio goes down to 0.65 in road games with a ratio margin of -0.09. The Eagles ratio margin at home is a solid +0.52. Central Michigan is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following a game played as a home favorite while going 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games coming off a home conference win. 3* Eastern Michigan Eagles
Rocketman
St Louis @ Dallas
Play: Dallas -125
Dallas is 18-6 this year after allowing 4 goals or more. Dallas is 144-84 since 1996 after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game. Blues are 8-20 in their last 28 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blues are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Blues are 0-4 in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Stars are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Stars are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Stars are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Stars are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Stars are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Stars are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Stars are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Stars are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Stars are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Stars are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Stars are 7-2 in their last 9 home games. Stars are 20-8-2 in their last 30 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. Home team is 35-16-5 in the last 56 meetings. Blues are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in Dallas. We'll recommend a small play on Dallas tonight!
The Prez
Buffalo +3
The Buffalo Bulls are a hot team right now that is looking to improve their MAC seeding, while the Miami-Ohio Redhawks are heading in the opposite direction.
The Bulls are 6-1 straight up in their last seven games with the only loss coming in the road vs. a 22-8 Akron team. This improves them to 17-10 overall and 9-6 in the conference, and they have been a good road team this year, going 8-5 straight up. They crushed this Miami team by 18 points at home, and given their fine road play, we see no reason why the Bulls cannot beat the Redhawks again here in their current form.
On the other hand, Miami is just 1-4 straight up in their last five games, and they failed to cover the spread in the only win vs. a seemingly outclassed SE Missouri State team on Bracketbuster Saturday. It also hurts that starting center Adam Fletcher injured his leg in the loss to Kent State on Saturday and is questionable for this contest. Miami is not a great rebounding team to begin with, so they would Fletcher id he cannot go.
Regardless though, these teams are obviously playing at opposite levels right now and we look for Buffalo to post another road win here.
LT PROFITS
Washington/Oregon Under 144
This contest between the Washington Huskies and the Oregon Ducks is a contrast in styles, but we look for the home standing Ducks to slow the pace down enough to keep this game Under this total.
Yes, Washington averages 80.3 points per game, but the last two times they played on the road vs. teams that slow the pace down, those teams were able to control the tempo. The Huskies won by just a 59-52 count at Washington State in their last contest and they were held to just 61 points when they visited USC.
In fact, the production of the Washington offense drops noticeably on the road regardless of their opponent, as they are averaging only 69.1 points on 42.6 percent shooting away from home vs. Division I foes, far below their robust home numbers. Granted, they are also allowing 76.1 points per game on the road, but we do not feel the Oregon offense is capable of approaching that right now.
The Ducks are averaging 69.1 points per game overall and 70.8 points at home, but they have been just awful offensively as of late. Oregon has not scored more than 70 points in any of their last seven games, averaging a poor 55.4 points per game over this time while being held below 60 points in five of those games.
Looking at just the last five games for both of these teams, Washington games have averaged 144.0 points, which is right at this total, but Oregon games have averaged 119.6 points. Look for the Ducks to win the tempo war at home here.
Cajun Sports
USC Trojans @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Selection: Arizona State Sun Devils -7
The final weekend of the Pac-10 regular season play tips off with the USC Trojans making a trip to Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe Arizona to face the host Arizona State Sun Devils on Thursday night. The Trojans bring a struggling offense to Tempe having scored only a game-high 47 points in their last three games. They are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread over that same time frame. The Sun Devils saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last Saturday with a miserable loss at Cal 62 to 46. Arizona State has won six of their last eight games overall and a very solid 14-3 when playing at Wells Fargo this season. The Sun Devils are averaging 70 points per game at home this season and allowing a meager 54 points per game to their opposition. ASU will be seeking revenge for a January loss at USC where they were defeated 47 to 37, the host in this series has taken the last seven regular season meetings posting a record of 6-1 against the number in those contests. Lay the points as the Sun Devils roll past an overmatched USC Trojans squad in the desert on Thursday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Arizona State Sun Devils 74 USC Trojans 55
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI +5 over L.A. Lakers
Last week on TNT Thursday the public got rich when three small road dogs swept the board. There is no doubt whatsoever that the majority of those same bettors will be laying the lumber with the Lakers tonight and that is very likely a mistake. You see, the Miami Heat really don’t care about much but what they do care about is a game with the Lakers in prime time that’ll be seen right across the land. When focused and when they do give a rat’s behind, the Heat can play with any team in the business. What is also true is that if you’re going to wager on the Lakers here you’re absolutely, 100% going to pay a premium to do so. That’s something that can’t be recommended and while the Lakers are capable of blowing this host out, the “right” side here is the Heat, as these small road favorites that aren’t supposed to cover, keep covering and that situation is going to come crashing down in a big way very, very soon and there’s a great chance of that starting here. Play: Miami +5 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
USC/Arizona St. under 110
What if I was to tell you that the best defense in the nation was that of the Southern California Trojans? Mired in a 16-12 campaign, USC isn’t going to make the dance but have been absolutely brilliant at the defensive end this season. For starters, they rank second in the NCAA’s in defensive efficiency, a statistic that accounts for pace and is one all serious handicappers need to be aware of. Secondly, they allow opponents to shoot a miniscule 40.9% on shots from inside the arc and 30.9% from outside the arc. By the way, all three statistics put them far ahead of any other team in the Pac 10. But that’s not all; USC allows opponents to only scoop up about a quarter of their missed shots and block 12% of all shots attempted. Arizona State doesn’t have the defensive pedigree of the Trojans but hold their own adequately, allowing opponents to shoot 32.1% on three’s and 44% on two’s. That’s important because for all the accolades USC racks up at the defensive end they are one of the worst scoring teams in D-1. It’s not just that they rank dead last in their conference in offensive efficiency, it’s that they are near the bottom with schools like Bethune-Cookman, Maryland Baltimore County, North Carolina A&T and Columbia to name a few. They have only cracked 70 points once in conference play and have only averaged 45 points over their last 3 games. The Sun Devils are still fighting for their tournament lives and that means they can’t take any possessions off. This is indeed a low total but the defensive statistics posted by USC and postseason motivations on ASU’s side all point to an under play. Play: #529 Southern Cal/Arizona State under 110
Steve Merril
Providence vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Providence +11
Providence is on an eight-game losing streak. But look who they have played; Syracuse twice, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, and West Virginia. That’s the Big East gauntlet, and with Providence less talented than those teams, the losses are forgivable. In their most recent loss at South Florida, the Friars led virtually wire to wire before a complete meltdown happened in the final seconds of the game. The Friars led 93-92 with 14 seconds left to play when South Florida’s Dominique Jones went coast to coast and hit a layup. A foul was also called which infuriated Providence, and their outburst led to a technical foul. After all was said and done, Providence lost 99-93 in a very misleading final score. Pittsburgh has one of the strongest home courts in all of college basketball; the Panthers are 15-1 overall at home and 5-1 at home in conference play. However, of those five home conference wins, four of them have come by 10 points or less with two of those wins coming in overtime by 3 and 5 points. So Pittsburgh isn’t in the habit of blowing out conference opponents at home, and with the offensive firepower Providence has, it’s unlikely they’ll do it here. What keeps Providence from being a stronger selection is their disregard for playing defense. The Friars have allowed 85 points or more in 12 games this season and when facing a Pittsburgh team that focuses on defense (allow just 62 ppg), it’s tough to trust Providence enough tonight. The other issue we have is the way Providence comes into this game, off the heartbreaking loss and off eight consecutive losses overall. Even though they’ve lost five of the eight by less than tonight’s pointspread, there’s worry that their tank may be on empty.
SEAN MURPHY
NY Islanders @ Atlanta
PICK: New York +1.5
Despite sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference, the New York Islanders still haven't quit on the season. They're only five points back of the eighth place Boston Bruins, and tonight's opponent, the Atlanta Thrashers, are one of the team's they need to leapfrog if they want to earn an improbable playoff berth.
New York couldn't have played much better in its first game following the Olympic break, defeating one of the league's best teams, the Chicago Blackhawks, 5-3 on home ice. Keep in mind, the Isles currently sit 29 points behind the Blackhawks in the overall standings.
The Isles have now won three of their last five games overall, and should be confident knowing that they've already beaten the Thrashers three times this season, scoring 16 goals in the process.
Atlanta did notch a 4-2 win over the struggling Panthers on Tuesday night and has fared better than expected since dealing away Ilya Kovalchuk, posting a 3-3 record. However, if you're looking for consistency, don't look the Thrashers way. They've posted back-to-back wins only once since the middle of December. They're 1-9 in their last 10 games following a victory.
We'll grab the +1.5 goal cushion with the Islanders tonight, knowing that they're up against an Atlanta team that has won only two of its last 14 games by multiple goals. Those two victories both came against the Florida Panthers, who I've mentioned on numerous occasions over the last several weeks, have been struggling mightily.
The Islanders have lost by two goals or more only once over their last five games. They may sport an ugly road record this season, but they've still been competitive on most nights. There's not much separating these two teams, and I won't be surprised if this one is decided by a single goal either way. Take New York +1.5 goals (-210).