BEN BURNS
Colorado Avalanche @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Phoenix Coyotes
The Avalanche have won both meetings in this series so far this season. This should be a good spot for the Coyotes to get some payback though. While Phoenix had last night off, Colorado is coming off a late win at Anaheim. The Avs are now playing their third game in the past four nights. Note that the Avs are 12-18 (-4.4) the last 30 times that they played the second of back to back games.
Yes, the Avs won both earlier meetings. However, they both came at Colorado. Considering that the Coyotes have the third most home wins (22) in the Western Conference, winning here at Phoenix figures to be considerably more difficult. Note that the Coyotes were 2-0 as a host of the Avs last season. Also, note that they've gone 11-5 the last 16 times that they were coming off a loss by two or more goals. Consider Phoenix
Hollywood Sports
UC Davis at CS-Northridge
Prediction: CS-Northridge
Cal State-Northridge desperately needs a win after losing three conference games in a row. The two-time defending Big West champions need one more victory to clinch a spot in the conference tournament. They will likely rely heavily on their team defense that limits their opponents to just 40.5% shooting on their home court. UC-Davis (12-16) enters this game off a blowout 66-43 win over UC-Riverside but we expect a letdown from them as they go back on the road. The Aggies have failed to cover in five of their last six games coming off a win. And UC-Davis struggles on the road as they are just 3-10 overall with a revealing -10.7 net point differential. These Aggies' often lose their focus when playing defense. While allowing their opponent's to shoot 47.5% from the field overall, this figure jumps to a whopping 50.1% when playing away from home. UC-Davis defeated Cal State-Northridge by an 85-73 score on January 4th, but the Matadors should earn their revenge tonight. Lay the points with Cal State-Northridge.
Jack Jones
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns
Pick Phoenix Suns -1
The Phoenix Suns are not getting nearly the respect they deserve tonight at home against the Utah Jazz. The home team has won 7 of the last 8 in this series, so home-court advantage has been huge. Phoenix is 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Utah is 6-18 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 13-3 SU & 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games, and are certainly one of the hottest teams in the league right now. This one is really a no-brainer tonight folks.
This play falls under a system that is 28-7 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites (PHOENIX) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Take the Suns.
Joseph D'Amico
Dayton vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -3½
Richmond is a very solid squad. Guard's Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez are combining for 31.3 PPG. When playing host, the Spider's are outscoring opponents by an average oif 14.5 PPG. Richmond comes into this matchup winning 8 of their L9 both SU and ATS. They can utilize their talent and exploit Dayton's weakness, their lack of speed. The Dayton Flyer's have lost 3 of their L5 SU and are 4-1 ATS in that span. Guard Rob Lowery is questionable, but will most likely play with a hobbled ankle. The home team is 4-1 ATS their L5 meetings. The Flyer's are 1-4 ATS their L5 road games, 1-4 ATS their L5 overall, and 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. the Atlantic 10. The Spider's are 5-0 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600, 5-1 ATS their L6 as a favorite, and 8-1 ATS their L9 vs. the Atlantic 10. Take Richmond.
Dennis Macklin
Dayton vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -3½
Richmond did nothing to disappoint in last, a double-OT loss at Xavier snapping the Spider's eight game win streak. They're home tonight against a Dayton team that's game at home but just 1-5 SU and ATS L6 on the conference road with only win coming versus brutal St Bonnie. The Spiders have spanked some pretty good teams at The Robins Center and will be full-focused tonight on senior night. Richmond 70-56.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Bulls -5
Off back-to-back defeats and with 2 days rest, Chicago should be both hungry and fresh when it takes on a Memphis Grizzlies team that just played a hard fought game in New Orleans last night. The Bulls are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with Memphis, but here's the real clincher - plays on home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more, playing with 2 days rest, are 27-5 ATS the last 5 seasons and 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. I can't stress enough how important freshness figures to be tonight. In fact, Memphis is just 3-12 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by 10.9 points on average. Bet the Bulls.
Black Widow
1* on New Mexico State +6.5
We'll gladly take the points with New Mexico State tonight as they travel to Nevada. NMSU has played solid basketball all season, posting a 19-9 record and a winning mark away from home. The Aggies are 7-1 S.U. & 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Nevada is 17-11 this season, but their last 7 wins have all come by single-digits, not once beating a team by 8 points or more. So they have been winning several close games, which is a big reason why NMSU is getting the call here. Nevada is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. New Mexico State is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. This is a well-rested team that will be looking for revenge after losing to the Wolf Pack at home earlier this season. Take New Mexico State and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Washington State/Oregon State UNDER 122.5
Both of these team prefer to play at a slower pace, and that's a big reason why the Under is 5-1 in the Cougars' last 6 overall and 9-2 in the Beavers' last 11 overall. Oregon State does an especially good job of dictating tempo and that's why we see the Under at 20-8 in its last 28 vs. the Pac-10. It is also worth noting that Washington State is 13-4 Under when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons and we have seen only 119.8 points scored on average in these contests. With this is mind, the Under is showing some solid line value tonight.
Derek Mancini
Dayton (+3') at RICHMOND
Everyone loves Richmond (myself included) as one of the best mid-majors out there. But don't get so caught up in the hype that you put blinders on, and end up getting burned tonight as they host Dayton.
It all comes down to who needs it more, and no question the more motivated team will be the Flyers, sitting on 19 wins on the outside looking in. A win at Richmond is all but a necessity to improve their stock. A loss for the Spiders means litte. Edge goes to Dayton.
Like Chris Wright to keep his Flyers competitive tonight. He didn't do much the last time these two schools met, but the 6'8 forward has improved much since last season (shooting up from 47% to 53%). Anderson is going to get his for the Spiders, but can they match up with the Flyers upfront? I just don't see it.
Looking over the board, its no secret this is one of the more lopsided games, as far as public action, that we're seeing. A ton of love for the Spiders because of all the pre-tourney hype, but I'd be very careful betting against a Flyers team that needs a win tonight. They may or may not get that win, but they will keep it close (underdog in this series is 8-2 ATS L10). Dayton plus the points in this contest!
3♦ DAYTON
Chuck O'Brien
USC at ARIZONA STATE (-8)
Delivered with Tuesday’s complimentary play on UC Irvine plus the points at UC Santa Barbara. Let’s make it two in a row Wednesday by taking Arizona State minus the points against USC in Pac-10 hoops action.
The home team is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these teams (6-1 ATS), with the Sun Devils posting three straight double-digit home wins (3-0 ATS) the last three years. Thing is, in none of those three games was ASU as desperate to win as it is tonight. By getting blown out at Cal (16-point loss) on Saturday, the Sun Devils blew their shot at the Pac-10 regular-season title and knocked themselves back on the Tournament bubble.
If Arizona State has ANY hopes of going dancing in two weeks, it has to win tonight and Saturday against UCLA and go very deep in next week’s Pac-10 tourney. Point being: The Sun Devils will be highly motivated tonight. Can’t say the same thing for USC, which knows its season will end this weekend in the desert. After tonight’s game at ASU, the Trojans play at Arizona on Saturday and then they’re done – no conference or postseason tournament play as part of a school-imposed penalty relating to infractions.
As it is, it appears like USC has thrown in the town. It is coming off three straight losses (SU and ATS), including getting swept at home last week by Oregon (54-44) and Oregon State (49-44) despite being a heavy favorite in both contests. Throw in a 51-47 loss at Washington State on Feb. 20, and USC has scored 47, 44 and 44 points in its last three games. Not good, when considering Arizona State surrenders less than 55 ppg at home.
The Trojans have cashed just twice in nine games since Jan. 28 (1-3 SU and ATS on the road), and that slump figures to continue tonight with absolutely NOTHING to play for.
5♦ ARIZONA STATE
Michael Cannon
Southern California at ARIZONA STATE (-8)
Nice free winner on Texas A&M last night!
Lay the points with Arizona State tonight at home over USC.
The Trojans have really struggled offensively the last three games. They have scored just 135 points combined in losing the last three, including outright home upsets to Oregon and Oregon State.
In each of those games USC was a double-digit favorite.
Yeah, I don’t like their chances on the road tonight either.
Arizona State had won four straight before getting blown out at Cal on Saturday. But losing bad on the road to one of the best teams in the Pac-10 is nothing to be ashamed about, and I think the Sun Devils will bounce back nicely tonight against the struggling Trojans.
USC is on a 1-5 ATS slide while Arizona State has cashed in 18 of its last 26 after a non-cover.
Take Arizona State as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ ARIZONA STATE
Brett Atkins
I'm 10-8 with my last 18 free plays and tonight I've got a winner for you in Pac-10 action as I go with Oregon State at home to get the job done against Washington State..
The Beavers have won four of their last seven and cashed in seven of their last 10 games overall. They were at USC on Saturday and won 49-44, easily cashing as eight-point underdogs.
Washington State has dropped seven of its last nine and failed to cash in three of its last four. After a tough loss to the rival Huskies, the Cougars now have to try and bounce back on the road in a tough spot.
Oregon State has cashed in three straight and eight of the last 10 in this matchup, with seven of those coming as an underdog. The Beavers have cashed in seven of the last eight meetings against Washington State in Corvallis, Ore.
Oregon State is on ATS runs of 10-4 at home, 22-7 overall, 16-5 after a straight-up win and 23-4 against teams with losing records.
4♦ OREGON ST.
Jay McNeil
Now on an 20-13-2 run with comp plays, I'm taking Fullerton plus the points against Pacific tonight.
Currently sitting in third place in the Big West Conference, I remember reading a preseason piece that revealed the Titans being picked by a California media panel to finish seventh in the league.
Fullerton would love nothing more than to stick it to everyone on this final weekend, as it can gain needed momentum for the postseason tournament by scoring wins in their last two games of the regular season at Titan Gym, beginning tonight against Pacific.
I know the Tigers are the best team in the league and attacking their defense is a problem, but they haven’t been themselves lately, and something tells me this is not a good game to trust them.
2♦ FULLERTON
Matt Rivers
Take the over tonight when Dayton travels to take on A-10 rival Richmond.
This should be a close game, but I also think it’s going to be a high-scoring contest. Richmond averages 72.6 ppg at home, while Dayton is coming off its biggest offensive output this season in Saturday’s 96-68 hammering of UMass.
These teams have topped the total in each of their last five series meetings, and the over is 4-0 in Richmond’s last four against winning teams.
Take the over as this one soars past the posted number.
3♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Yet another free-play winner Wednesday, as Texas A&M (5♦) crushed Oklahoma State. That’s now three straight freebie winners to start the month of March. More impressively, I’m now on runs of 32-14-1, 22-8-1, 19-7-1 and 13-4-1 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Thursday, we’ll switch to the pro hardwood and take the points with the Heat against the Lakers. Strong situational spot here, as Miami relaxed at home yesterday after Monday’s victory over Golden State, while Los Angeles traveled across the country following Monday’s home rout of the Pacers. This is the first of a three-game, four-day Eastern Conference road trip for the Lakers, who have to head up to Charlotte after tonight’s game to play the Bobcats on Friday.
L.A. has a decent 17-10 road record, but it has cashed in just 11 of those contests. Ironically, with Kobe Bryant in the lineup, the Lakers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four as a visitor. On top of that, their spread-cover against Indiana on Monday was their first since the All-Star break (they had been in an 0-5-1 overall ATS funk). And going back to the start of February, Los Angeles is 4-8-2 ATS.
Finally, D-Wade and the Heat have given the Lakers fits over the years. Back on Dec. 4, Kobe had to hit a miracle shot at the buzzer to steal a 108-107 home win, with Miami cashing as a 12½-point underdog. That means the Heat have covered in each of the last three meetings (all as an underdog), including last year’s 89-87 home win as an eight-point pup. In fact, since 2004-05 – Wade’s second year in the league – the home team has won nine of the last 10 in this rivalry, with the underdog cashing in seven of the last nine.
Throw in the fact that the Lakers are in ATS slumps of 2-6-1 as a favorite of less than five points (1-5-1 as a road chalk in that range), while Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a ‘dog and 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 against Pacific Division teams, and I’ll gladly grab the points with the home pup.
4♦ MIAMI HEAT