Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday March 7

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Wisconsin at Michigan State
The Badgers look to bounce back from their 69-56 loss to Purdue on Sunday and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Wisconsin is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Badgers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+4 1/2)

Game 505-506: Penn State at Northwestern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 57.049; Northwestern 58.747
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 1 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 5; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+5); Over

Game 507-508: Virginia at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 68.485; Florida State 64.705
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 3 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Virginia by 4 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+4 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: Kentucky at Georgia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 67.025; Georgia 60.117
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7; 130
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 3; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-3); Over

Game 511-512: Butler at Massachusetts (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 60.094; Massachusetts 66.537
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 6 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 1; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-1); Under

Game 513-514: Oregon at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 64.016; Colorado 69.212
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 5; 133
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3; 129
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-3); Over

Game 515-516: Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 63.953; New Mexico State 62.725
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 1
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+2 1/2)

Game 517-518: Texas State at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 45.198; Utah State 55.545
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+13)

Game 519-520: TX-Arlington at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 53.194; Denver 68.702
Dunkel Line: Denver by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 12
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-12)

Game 521-522: Wisconsin at Michigan State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 76.665; Michigan State 76.010
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4 1/2; 120
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+4 1/2); Under

Game 523-524: UC-Irvine at Pacific (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 56.854; Pacific 56.740
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Pacific by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+4 1/2)

Game 525-526: Long Beach State at UC-Davis (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 58.900; UC-Davis 57.651
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 1; 142
Vegas Line: UC-Davis by 1 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+1 1/2); Under

Game 527-528: UC-Riverside at Cal Poly (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 44.171; Cal Poly 59.405
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 15
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 14
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (-14)

Game 529-530: CS-Fullerton at UC-Santa Barbara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 50.727; UC-Santa Barbara 50.801
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara 4
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (+4)

Game 531-532: TX-San Antonio at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 48.905; San Jose State 49.530
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 1
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+1 1/2)

Game 533-534: Hawaii at CS-Northridge (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 49.739; CS-Northridge 53.512
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 4
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-2 1/2)

Game 535-536: Oregon State at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 57.886; Utah 60.922
Dunkel Line: Utah by 3; 132
Vegas Line: Pick; 136
Dunkel Pick: Utah; Under

Game 537-538: Drake vs. Bradley (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 54.302; Bradley 53.132
Dunkel Line: Drake by 1
Vegas Line: Drake by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+2 1/2)

Game 539-540: Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 54.043; Missouri State 52.452
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 5
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 3
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (-3)

Game 541-542: Loyola-Marymount vs. San Francisco (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 50.536; San Francisco 57.651
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 543-544: Pepperdine vs. San Diego (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 50.792; San Diego 52.714
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+3)

Game 545-546: Southern Utah at Northern Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 42.932; Northern Colorado 47.818
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 5; 141
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 8 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+8 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Sacramento State at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 44.853; Montana 57.325
Dunkel Line: Montana by 12 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Montana by 10; 127
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-10); Over

Game 549-550: Portland State at Weber State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 43.639; Weber State 62.700
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 19; 146
Vegas Line: Weber State by 16 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-16 1/2); Over

Game 551-552: Eastern Washington at Idaho State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 44.919; Idaho State 45.964
Dunkel Line: Idaho State by 1; 118
Vegas Line: Idaho State by 3; 122
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+3); Under

Game 553-554: Northern Arizona at Montana State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 40.814; Montana State 44.733
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 4; 148
Vegas Line: Montana State by 2 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (-2 1/2); Over

Game 555-556: Morehead State vs. Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 47.749; Tennessee State 53.589
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 557-558: SE Missouri State vs. Eastern Kentucky (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 50.455; Eastern Kentucky 57.177
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 561-562: Winthrop vs. Charleston Southern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 46.171; Charleston Southern 52.367
Dunkel Line: Charleston Southern by 6; 119
Vegas Line: Charleston Southern by 8; 125
Dunkel Pick: Winthrop (+8); Under

Game 563-564: Longwood vs. VMI (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Longwood 38.012; VMI 47.392
Dunkel Line: VMI by 9 1/2; 167
Vegas Line: VMI by 7 1/2; 173
Dunkel Pick: VMI (-7 1/2); Under

Game 565-566: Campbell vs. Gardner-Webb (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Campbell 42.421; Gardner-Webb 54.234
Dunkel Line: Gardner-Webb by 12; 128
Vegas Line: Gardner-Webb by 8; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gardner-Webb (-8); Over

Game 567-568: Liberty vs. High Point (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Liberty 49.439; High Point 48.253
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 1; 144
Vegas Line: High Point by 3 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: Liberty (+3 1/2); Over

Game 569-570: East Tennessee State vs. Stetson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State 44.220; Stetson 48.929
Dunkel Line: Stetson by 4 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Stetson by 5 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: East Tennessee State (+5 1/2); Under

Game 571-572: USC-Upstate vs. Jacksonville (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC-Upstate 48.264; Jacksonville 46.616
Dunkel Line: USC-Upstate by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Montreal vs. CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Montreal Canadiens sit at the top of the Eastern Conference, two points ahead of the Boston Bruins. The Habs stumbled against the Isles in their last game, losing 6-3 on Tuesday night. They will be on the road again Thursday, taking on the Hurricanes in Raleigh.
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Here are my keys to the game:
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1: Recent History - The Hurricanes are playing great hockey right now, currently on a four game winning streak. Leading scorer Eric Staal has nine points in those four games.
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2: Situational/Motivational - With Cam Ward out of the lineup, 32 year old backup netminder Dan Ellis will be looking to make the most of this opportunity. Ellis has looked great at times earlier this year, winning two of his three home starts, allowing just one goal in those two victories.
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3: X-Factor - Carey Price has been one of the league's best goaltenders so far this season, but he's really struggled in his last two games. He's given up 12 goals, losing back to back games in his last two starts. It wouldn't be surprising to see coach Michel Therrien to give Price the night off in Carolina. (If Price does play, he may still not be his usual self.)

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia vs. Florida St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With Virginia once again tossed into bubble trouble after Sunday’s loss at BC that partially undid much of the good done by previous win over high-ranked Duke, Tony Benentt’s bunch has to approach this trip to Tallahassee with some added urgency. While the Cavs haven’t often taken their KO power with them away from Charlottesville, they did asphyxiate FSU at John Paul Jones Arena on Jan. 19 when limiting Noles to just one triple in 15 tries beyond the arc and forcing them into 18 TOs, converted into 20 UVa points in a 56-36 romp. Moreover, money-burning FSU owns just 2 covers its last 14 games overall, so the case for the hosts is a tough one to make. Note that the Cavs’ 6-6 wing Joe Harris has been en fuego the past five weeks, scoring 21.7 ppg his last ten outings.

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Edmonton vs. DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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Edmonton is just 4-5-3 on the road this year, and is coming off a 4-3 OT loss at Columbus on Tuesday. It was the Oilers third loss in a row.
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Detroit is 8-4-2 at home, and is coming off a 2-1 win over Colorado on Tuesday. Goaltender Jimmy Howard was brilliant, stopping 36 shots. Niklas Kronwall and Johan Franzen potted the goals.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that Edmonton is 0-3 this year after playing three consecutive road games.
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Note that Detroit has won four of the last five in this series, including a 2-1 victory at home on February 9th.
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Pick Analysis
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Simply a tough spot for the Oilers, who must turn around and hit the road for a game the following night in Nashville, before heading to undefeated Chicago on Sunday. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and in this case, I have no problem in recommending a second look at the home side in this one!

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia vs. Florida St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Florida St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Seminoles host the Cavaliers in this ACC clash in Tallahassee Thursday evening, FSU will take the court looking to avenge a 20-point whipping suffered in Charlottesville earlier this season. That should be plenty of incentive for the for the painted faces given the fact they are 19-8 ATS in this series, including 6-0 ATS when avenging a same season loss. With the visiting team 6-19-1 ATS in Virginia games this season, look for the upset here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida State.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon vs. ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado goes for the series sweep against Oregon tonight as well as gaining another quality win to bolster its tournament résumé. As of now, Colorado is part of the projected NCAA Tournament field but not by much. This is the last chance in the regular season for the Buffaloes to grab a quality win as they finish the season on Saturday against Oregon St. they are coming off a 16-point loss at California last Saturday which put an end to a solid 5-1 run but Colorado heads home where it is 11-2 on the season, losing only to UCLA and Arizona St. by a combined four points, the latter defeat coming in overtime by a point. Currently the Buffaloes are in fifth place in the Pac 12 and have to win out and get help from Arizona St. to claim the fourth seed and a first round bye in the upcoming Pac 12 Tournament so they need to take care of business. Oregon has won two straight games to improve to 12-4 in the conference and is currently in first place by a half-game so there is a lot at stake for the Ducks as well. They have not been playing great on the road however. Even though they are 2-2 in their last four games on the highway, the two wins came at Washington and Washington St., two teams that will not be part of the Big Dance. Oregon is still not 100 percent healthy as point guard Dominic Artis is finally just getting back. Coach Dana Altman plans to work Artis back in slowly, possibly targeting next week's Pac-12 Tournament to shift him back into the starting lineup. Colorado won the first meeting in Eugene thanks to a strong second half and while the Ducks will be out for revenge, it won't be easy here. Colorado falls into a great situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 67 and 74 ppg going up against teams allowing 63 or fewer ppg after allowing 65 points or less three straight games. This situation is 82-37 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1997.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vancouver vs. ColumbusFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VancouverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here's a perfect opportunity for the waffling Canucks to earn a win over a perennial cellar dweller. Vancouver will be looking to atone for a painful 3-2 shootout loss to the Sharks on Tuesday: "Our record isn't as good of late, but we know we can play some better hockey," said the Canucks' Mason Raymond last night. But Vancouver has enjoyed a ton of success vs. the Blue Jackets, going 10-0-1 in the last 11 in the series, outscoring them 42-23 in that span (and Vancouver is 5-4 this year vs. teams with losing records). The last team in the league has bee playing over its head of late, winning two straight. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has never played against Vancouver though, while Steve Mason is just 1-4-2 with a 3.46 GAA over his last seven vs. it (and Columbus is 0-3 this year after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest). Canucks goaltender Cory Schneider is 3-1-1 with a 2.17 GAA on the road, and a 2.00 GAA in winning five straight over Columbus. The beleaguered Roberto Luongo is 3-0-1 with a 1.66 GAA over his last four in this series. Columbus has a home-and-home set vs Detroit over the weekend, before playing Vancouver again next Thursday. The Canucks will be looking to take advantage of a soft stretch, with two whole days off after tonights contest, a game at Minnesota on Sunday, before returning to this very building. Consider laying the price on the "better" team.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento St vs. MontanaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: MontanaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Montana won by nearly 30 here last season vs Sacramento St and beat them on the road earlier in the season despite a poor effort. We note that Montana has been Money when playing off 3+ road games going a perfect 6-0 straight up and ats. They fit a late season system that pertain to Home teams off back to back road games and have won and covered the last 5 here in the series. Of late they are 6-2 ats as a home favorite from -9.5 to -12. Sacramento St is 4-13 with just 3 spread wins in March games and 0-4 with home loss revenge. They have lost to the spread in 10 of their 13 losses and are 2-22 and 7-13 ats vs winning teams. Even with the injured players Montana should cash this one. Make it Montana tonight.

Don Best ConsensusFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Clippers at NuggetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With the league's 3rd (Nuggets) & 9th (Clippers) best scoring offenses, you better believe this game will include some high scoring firepower. The OVER is 10-4 in the Clippers last 14 games vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The Over is 14-3 in Denver's last 17 games vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The OVER is also 11-3 in Denver's last 14 home games. Play Clippers-Denver Over.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Butler at MassachusettsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MassachusettsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Stevens vs. Kellogg. Okay, I'm not thrilled with the specter of having the UMass guy in the battle of the coaches. But even with one of the best in the business calling the shots, this is simply not a good Butler team right now. The lack of a true point guard has become a very exploitable weakness, and UMass has the personnel and plays the pace that should provide problems for the Bulldogs tonight. One could argue and I would not disagree that this has suddenly become a very big game for the fading visitors. But the fact is their current form is just not very good, while the Minutemen have been coming on strong and loom as a legit threat in the upcoming A-10 Tourney. My sense is that the betting public is going to side with Butler here, and I really can't fault their reasoning. But I am going to have to go with what I've been witnessing lately, and that gets me to the Massachusetts side to emerge with the win and cover tonight.

Jim Feist

Wisconsin at Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State

Up and down Wisconsin has struggled against Michigan State, with the Badgers 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Michigan State has great defense and balance, able to score inside and out. The home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these Big 10 rivals and the Badgers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Michigan State. Play Michigan State!

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nuggets are just that good at home.... Clippers not performing as of late..They steam roll the Bucks and now face the Nuggets at one of the hardest places to play.. The Pepsi Center....... 117-101 last night as the Clip Show rolls and now a 4 point dog.... not buying it boys Power Rated @ - 7.

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky at GeorgiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: KentuckyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game by five or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-26 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1997. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KENTUCKY) and are average 3-point shooting teams making between 32 and 36.5% and facing an average 3-point defense allowing 32 to 36.5% and after 15+ games and after 2 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less.?Stands to reason that Calipari would focus on the defensive end as they battle to just make the NCAA Tournament to defend their National Championship. They have played their best defense of the year in the past two games, but somehow managed to lose 73-60 at Arkansas. They have won eight of the past 11 games though and are coming on strong down the stretch. A win tonight and then they host Florida Saturday for the regular season finale. A won over the Gators will be enough to get them in the Tournament, but they must focus all of their attention on the Bulldogs tonight. Calipari is rock solid 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) facing very good defensive teams posting a shooting percentage defense of <=39% after 15+ games of the regular season in all games he has coached since 1997. In this must-win game, I will risk a 10* amount on the Wildcats.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State
Play: Louisiana TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisiana Tech’s defense has been playing extremely well. They had played three straight games allowing less than 36% shooting. You should always play on road teams like Louisiana Tech when the line is +3 to -3 and they are an average 3 point shooting team against an average 3 point defense after the 15+ game point in the season and after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 37% or less. This system is 54-26 (68%) since 1997. New Mexico State has lost two of their last three games straight up and ATS. They have struggled against much weaker opponents like Idaho and Seattle. They will have their hands full when they face a La Tech team that has won 18 consecutive games. The Bulldogs have won their last three games by double digit margins and they have peeled off eight consecutive wins on the road.