Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Clippers / Nuggets Under 213.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There's certainly nothing wrong with either one of these teams on the offensive end, but tonight's total has been over-adjusted for what I believe is faulty public perception. The teams have met twice this season and the totals posted for those games were 207 and 204 1/2. The last time the teams met, Denver won 92-78, finishing 37 points below the closing total. Go back to last year's first matchup and including all six games since and only one has seen a total posted higher than 205 1/2 and that was the 207 mentioned earlier. Let's not forget that the Clippers are the NBA's fourth stingiest defense, allowing just over 94 ppg and they're 7th in FG percentage allowed. They're 19-7 to the Under in their last 26 games against teams with a winning SU record. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 10-3 to the Under against teams with a winning SU record and the series itself is on a 9-4 Under run. Those are all telling trends, but mostly we feel tonight's total has simply been adjusted too much.
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Montreal -102 over CAROLINAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Hurricanes are first in the Southeast after notching their fourth straight win on Tuesday against Buffalo. They were outshot 40-28 in that game and with a two goal lead, Carolina gave up a short-handed goal with 50 seconds left in the game forcing the 'Canes to hang on for the victory. That’s troubling. Against Florida on Sunday, the ‘Canes were outshot 36-24. Offensively, these Hurricanes have plenty of weapons but defensively we’re seeing some serious flaws that are going to catch up to them. The Hurricanes last four wins have come against Pittsburgh, Buffalo and two victories over the Panthers. What those four have in common is that they’re all weak defensively. The same fate does not await them here.
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The Canadiens defense and goaltending remain one of the best combined units in the league. Their 59 goals against is fourth in the East behind Boston, the Rangers and Ottawa. The Habs are usually well-prepped for each and every game, which has led them to one of the best records in the league. This speedy and well-balanced guest is exactly the type of team that has given the Hurricanes difficulty all season long, making this the right time to step in against them.
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Edmonton +150 over DETROITFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Red Wings have won four of their past six games and are now right back in the thick of the playoff race with 26 points, just one point behind Vancouver for third in the East. Detroit is also just two points ahead of four other teams, meaning one loss could send them from 4th place to 9th place. That’s an indication to how close this playoff race is and how each game is so important. The intensity levels are higher than usual and the Red Wings just aren’t deep enough to expect to win when the intensity level drops a notch as we expect it to here. Detroit has been involved in four straight 2-1 games where it went 2-2. Two of those went into OT and one of those was against Chicago. The other three 2-1 contests were against Los Angeles, San Jose and Colorado. The Red Wings have lost their last two games against Columbus this season and they have a home and home series with the Jackets on deck this weekend. Detroit could get caught flat-footed here.
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Every so often, the Oilers put forth an effort that makes them look like the Oilers of the 80’s as they did in a recent 5-1 win in Dallas. Edmonton has lost four of five on this current road trip but they have picked up points in three of those five games with one win and two OT losses. Edmonton is also getting healthier. Taylor Hall returned to the lineup in the Oilers last game and Edmonton will get a couple more key players back for this one. The Oilers still possess an extremely dangerous offense that could give the Red Wings a lot more than they bargained for and at this price, they are certainly worth a wager.
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PHOENIX +102 over St. LouisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Coyotes continue to be the hard-working and pesky club that they’ve always been. Backed by balanced scoring and the most underrated defensemen in the league in Keith Yandle, Phoenix is once again in a playoff position and will play its hearts out to remain there the rest of way. The Coyotes have won four of their past five home games including two over the Ducks and one over the Canucks. Despite playing its third game in four days, Phoenix should not be a dog at home against the reeling Blues.
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The Blues come in here in a foul mood after blowing a 4-1, third period lead in Los Angeles on Tuesday. That was the Blue Notes fifth loss in seven games with only two wins over that stretch occurring against Columbus and Edmonton. After a 6-1-1 start and looking like contenders, St. Louis’s season is now bordering on disastrous. The Blues’ save percentage, No. 1 in the NHL last season at .929, has fallen to No. 30 (.870) this year. Brian Elliott, who led the NHL with a .940 save percentage last season has slipped to .851 this season. Jaroslav Halak, who turned in a .925 mark a year ago, is now sitting at .884. With nowhere else to turn, St. Louis has called up goaltender Jake Allen from Peoria for this start. That’s not the answer. The left side of the defense is a mess. Unlike a year ago, the Blues are not sustaining any offensive pressure. It’s been one and done for them all season. The Blues defensemen were not as exposed last year because they spent so much time in the offensive zone (until LA in playoffs). The opposition has figured them out and now the Blue Notes are just another beatable team in the NHL. The Coyotes feast on disorganization.
Pass NBA & NCAAB
Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida State +3½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Florida State is a complete different team at home on than on the road. They have lost three of four all by double-digits, but all three came on the road. The Seminoles are 5-2 over their last seven home games with the only two losses coming against the two best teams in the ACC in Miami and Duke. What makes this a strong play is the fact that Virginia has really struggled on the road. The Cavaliers are a miserable 3-8 away from home. Virginia is 5-4 over their last 9 games and all four of those losses came on the road. Too much value on the Seminoles to not play here.
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Oregon +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'll grab the points in what is an extremely motivated spot for Oregon. With UCLA losing at Washington State last night, the Ducks can earn at least a share of the Pac-12 title with a win. Plus, this game is personal. Oregon was defeated by a single point by Colorado in last month's meeting so the Ducks will be out for some payback. Oregon is a reliable 20-10 ATS in all conference road games since Dana Altman took over. Furthermore, Altman has proven the master of revenge as his squads are are on a 43-25 ATS when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 72.5 to 66.8 in these contests. The Ducks enter with plenty of momentum on their side following back-to-back double-digit wins over Stanford and Oregon State. These wins are significant because the Ducks are 7-1 ATS this season following 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. They have won by an average score of 75.5 to 58.5 in this situation. Take the points.
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Texas San Antonio at San Jose StateFORFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Texas San Antonio -1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It has been a rough season for San Jose State. The Spartans were a respectable 9-6 in the early going, but then the wheels fell off, as they have gone 0-12 since. This team has all the markings of a team that has not only lost their confidence, but have quit as well. San Jose St. has lost their last five games by an average of 18.4 points per game. Texas San Antonio has risen above a bad season by winning three of their last four, and have revenge to play for here, and I expect them to get it. The Roadrunners have run the table in their last four when taking on a team with a losing home record, while the Spartans have taken the donut at home in their last eight at 0-8 ATS. Play on UT San Antonio in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW JERSEY -½ +116 over Buffalo
With the news that Jonas Enroth will start tonight for the Sabres, we’ll now step in on the reeling Devils. Much has been made about the Devils losing streak coinciding with the loss of Martin Brodeur to injury. While Johan Hedberg has been less than stellar, he’s been a mirror image of Brodeur, allowing soft goals from time to time while making brilliant saves at other times. The six-game New Jersey losing streak has nothing to do with the loss of Brodeur. The Devils players are eager to get a win for Hedberg. They will come out tonight in the second game back from a trip and will play their hearts out. The Devils want this one badly, especially after outplaying the Sabres last week and losing 4-3 in OT.
When push comes to shove, these Sabres can be had. After reeling off three wins in unimpressive fashion, Buffalo has dropped its last two. Now Jonas Enroth steps in with his 4.73 GAA and .847 save percentage, which is last in the NHL in both categories. The Devils are too good to keep losing at this pace. This is a focused Devils group that has hit a bit of a snag but they’ll snap out of it. With its stock sinking, you can expect this determined New Jersey squad to come out tonight and play one of its best games of the year and put away this very beatable guest.
Bryan Power
Toronto vs. Boston
Pick: Boston -1.5
I don't look to "lay" the -1.5 on the Puck Line all too often in the NHL, but with the money line too high for my tastes in this matchup, I'm going to do just that with the Bruins here as they host a Toronto team that played last night. For only the second time this year, Boston has dropped back to back games, the last coming in overtime on the road to Washington. I expect a strong bounce back here.....
Lost in the remarkable start by the Blackhawks has been the fact several other teams around the league are off to great starts. One of them is the Bruins, who at 14-3-3 have the second most points in the Eastern Conference, trailing only Montreal because they've played three less games than the rival Habs. The OT loss to the Caps occured in Boston's third game in four nights, a tough scenario. They should immediately benefit from having had Wednesday off while Toronto was busying holding off Ottawa last night.
Before suffering the back to back losses, Boston had won six straight games, allowing only nine goals. Netminder Tuukka Rask went 5-0 during that stretch with a 1.38 GAA. Rask, who was actually drafted by Toronto, has dominated the Maple Leafs in his career. He's won his last four starts against them, compiling a 0.94 GAA in those games. As a team, Boston has won eight straight against the Leafs, outscoring them 37-10 and most important for our purposes is that five of the wins have come by at least a three-goal margin. Lay the -1.5 here.
Teddy Covers
Southern Illinois vs. Missouri St.
Pick: Southern Illinois
There's no question that Southern Illinois is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Salukis have won five of their last six, ending their long road losing streak in the process with an impressive upset at Drake on senior day last weekend.
The key to their recent surge has been defensive pressure leading to easy fast break buckets. They've scored at least 15 points on fast breaks twice in their last three games and their 277 team steals this year were their most in the last seven years.
Missouri State head coach Paul Lusk knows what he's up against. "They’ve done a terrific job with that (forcing turnovers). They've played about as solid and inspired basketball as you could play over the last month. They've really come together, but there’s no doubt that their turnovers, and the turnovers that they force create offense for them. They’ve been outstanding with that. When we played there it was 10-0 because of that. They forced a lot of turnovers against Drake. They did the same thing against Northern Iowa. They can get out and pressure you. They’re a mobile team. They’re undersized, but they’ve very mobile and athletic, and they can cause some havoc at the defensive end.”
The Bears aren't big enough to dominate Southern Illinois in the paint, with only a modest +7 margin on the boards combined in the two regular season meetings between these two teams. And Lusk's squad is not a team to trust away from home; 2-14 SU on hostile or neutral courts this year including an 0-fer for the last two months of Missouri Valley Conference play. Eight of those last 12 defeats away from home have come by double digit margins.
First year Southern Illinois head coach Barry Hinson is the former Missouri State head coach, and he's absolutely a coach I want my money on at this stage of the season. Hinson ranks #3 all time in wins in the MVC tournament, guiding the Bears to to three tournament championship games in the process. The Salukis are not poised for a deep tourney run this year by any stretch of the imagination, but they are most assuredly primed to get out of the first round!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
New York/ Oklahoma City Under 207: The Under is 5-1 the last 6 in this series and the last 2 between these teams failed to put up more than 199 points. I see the Thunder coming out a bit flat offensively in this one, after playing the Nuggets, Clippers and Lakers in their last 3 games. The Thunder offense has been unstoppable in their last 8 games, averaging 112.5 ppg over that stretch, but two over their lowest outputs during that stretch were vs Chicago (102) and Miami), two good defensive teams and the only teams in that stretch vs the Eastern Conference. Now they face a Knicks team that is 9th in the league in points allowed, allowing just 96 ppg. The Knicks have been even better defensively off late, allowing 93.1 ppg in their last 6 games overall, and they have allowed just 95.1 ppg at home fr the year. The Knicks offense was great earlier in the year, but teams are figuring them out and starting to lockdown their 3 point shooting. THe KNicks do average 101.7 ppg at home, but in their last 10 overall they have scored just 95.1 ppg and have shot just 33.3% from long range i their last 5 games. The Thunder defense is not that great but and they do allow 99.1 ppg n the road, but I just don't see this Knick offense getting to 100 off them tonight. Both defense should have their way in this one as this game struggles to reach 198 points.
DENVER -4.5 over LA Clippers: The Nuggets are one of the Hottest teams in the league right now and they are also one of the best in the league at home, going 26-3 and outscoring teams by 9.9 ppg on their home floor. Denver loves to push tempo at home, where they have averaged 108.8 ppg and they should be good for at least that vs a Clippers squad that is playing on BB nights in the altitude tonight. The Clippers average just 98.1 pg on the road and Denver allows 98.9 ppg at home. I just don't see LA coming up with enough points to keep this one close. Denver has been awesome at home, they best the Clipper here at home by 14 in January and they are rested. Look for Denver to tire this team out and pull away in the 4th quarter. 114-104 sounds about right.
Jack Jones
Northwestern -5
The Northwestern Wildcats have certainly been struggling of late with six straight losses to drop to 13-16 on the season. However, this recent stretch has them undervalued tonight as they host the Penn State Nittany Lions.
There's no question that the Wildcats will be up for this game considering it is Senior Night. This is certainly a senior-led team with four seniors on the roster, including leading scorer Reggie Hearn (13.5 PPG). I look for these players to rally around Hearn and company and to send them out with a win in their final home game.
Penn State made its season with an 84-78 home victory over then-No. 4 Michigan on February 27th to pick up its first Big Ten win of the year. I suspected it would pack it in after that huge victory, and that appears to be the case. The Nittany Lions went on the road and lost 44-73 at Minnesota in their next game, and I look for them to get throttled again tonight.
The Nittany Lions are 0-8 in true road games this season. They are getting outscored by a whopping 14.4 points/game away from home this year. Penn State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Northwestern Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
Butler +1.5
Off back-to-back losses to the top two teams in the league, I expect Butler to bounce back strong this evening. The Bulldogs have won or lost by a single point in 7 of their last 9 road games. Plus, they are an impressive 29-16 ATS when catching points under the direction of coach Stevens. UMass has been a very poor investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. It is on a 42-70 ATS slide in games when the line is +3 to -3 and is just 21-37 ATS at home in this situation during this span. It has lost the home ones by an average of 4.3 points. Bet Butler.
Brad Diamond
Michigan State -4½
When the Badgers return to their most hated venue East Lasing, they will be following a SU home favorite loss to inconsistent Purdue 69-56. The Spartans board as the chalk tonight after losing a heart breaker to MU on Sunday 58-57. They have now lost three straight on the season. We know Wisky is a stellar defensive unit holding opponents to 55.8% from the
field. However, it appears they are over their heads this evening with the Spartans in a bad mood looking to come back strong after their recent issues. MSU has won 11 of 13 SU in the series, covered the last 4 in East Lasing. Wisconsin played well in a 49-47 loss at home to the Spartans this season, but MSU has a "strong" emotional edge going in with a beatable number.
Nelly
Massachusetts - over Butler
With Butler's recent tournament track record and the universal acclaim for Brad Stevens that has been well earned, this years Bulldogs team may have fooled many of us. Butler will be in the NCAA Tournament and at 9-5 in a solid Atlantic 10 and this team will compile a fine record by season's end but there are alarming concerns in the past month of the schedule. Non-conference wins over Marquette, North Carolina, Indiana, and Gonzaga gives Butler all the muscle it needs for the selection committee but since that win over the current #1 team in the nation Butler is just 6-5. Only one of those six wins has come against a team in the top half of the conference and the road wins came by slim margins against bad teams, beating George Washington by three and beating Fordham by five. Against St. Louis and VCU, the two best teams in the Atlantic 10, Butler has lost by a combined total of 49 points. Massachusetts lost guard Jesse Morgan in January to injury but the Minutemen have continued to compete. Massachusetts has won four of the last five home games with the lone loss coming by a single-point against Temple and this will be the first meeting ever for Massachusetts with Butler and the first chance to face one of the more prominent teams in the conference. Butler owns a winning road record but holds a negative point differential and the Massachusetts will push Butler out of its comfort zone with a fast paced attack, scoring nearly 77 points per game at home. Look for the Minutemen to make this is a very tough situation for Butler to get back on track.
Tony George
Virginia -3
There is a reason the Cavs are favored here and it is a strong statement since they have not won a game in the state of Florida since 2001. UNREAL. The Cavs defense held FSU to under 40 points in the first meeting this year in a blowout win, and while it seems ranked opponents on the road are getting beat like a drum against unranked opponents, I am drinking the Kool-Aid here with a vastly better team, who has 20 wins on the year and are clearly a mis-match here for Florida State. Virginia is inconsistent and been on a roller coaster since beating Duke but this is a winnable road game and it counts for tourney seeding, the Cavs will show up here and play that patented defense and get the win.
Harry Bondi
FLORIDA STATE (+3.5) over Virginia
Florida State's worst loss of the season was at Virginia on January 19th when they lost 56-36 to the Cavaliers. It was the Seminoles lowest point total in over 3 years and they were an amazing but true 1-15 from 3 point land! We think FSU remembers that game and gets its revenge on the Cavaliers tonight. History and trends are with us here as well as Virginia has lost 7 of their last 8 games versus Florida State and UVA has been a money burner on the road all year going 3-8 ATS.