Vegas Experts
Mavericks at Suns
Play: Over
Once upon a time, you could easily pencil in the Over when these teams met. But times have changed. As a result, we have a very low O/U number tonight in TNT. Last time these teams met, the game flew Over the total as the Mavs scored 122 points. Over bettors cashed by 37 points. Phoenix was involved in a 115-104 final game last night, a loss to Oklahoma City. Dallas is 38-23 Over in games where the total is in the 180 to 189.5 range.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Maryland/ Wake Forest Over 137.5: The question here i guess is can Wake score enough for this game to go Over/ I feel they can. Wake does average 65.6 ppg overall and 63.4 ppg away from home, but the Terps have allowed a whopping 75.6 ppg away from home on the year and 74 ppg in their last 10 games overall. The Terps have actually struggled to score of late as they have averaged just 61 ppg in their last 5 games, but Wake has allowed 70 ppg in their last 8 games overall and 71.8 ppg on the road this year. Both teams have played 3 neutral court games and Wake has allowed 74 ppg on 48.8% shooting in their 3 games, while Maryland has allowed 75 ppg on 49.2% shooting in their 3 games. Both teams are decent from longe range and neither team defense the 3-ball away from home. This will not be a slow down game and it will be a game with bad defense. I expect the mid 140's in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
UConn +7 over Syracuse: Yes payback is in order for the Huskies knocking the orange out of last years Big East tourney, but teams wit the double bye have not been the greatest teams to back in this tourney and UConn is playing really well. I'll ride them for another game, but I think the Cuse still pull it out in the end
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles at Columbus
Pick: Under 5
The LA Kings have won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in the process, but don't expect that to continue. The Kings have been shutout eight times this season and scored 2 or fewer goals in 41 games. They have also recorded nine shutouts and have held their opponent to 2 or less goals in 42 games on the season. Their three games vs. Columbus this season epitomize those numbers, as the three contests have seen a combined score of 9 goals. When they have faced a team with a losing record this season they have gone 19-3 to the UNDER. Play this one UNDER the total.
Jack Jones
Texas A&M +14
Texas A&M is certainly one of the biggest sleepers heading into the Big 12 Tournament. This team is a lot more talented than the No. 9 seed they have been given. The Aggies battled injuries all season, but they have finally started to get healthy here down the stretch.
Starting F Khris Middleton (12.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and starting PG Dash Harris (5.9 PPG, 4.2 APG) have each missed time due to injury. Both players are back and healthy and making key contributions here down the stretch. Texas A&M was able to get by Oklahoma last night, and I have them giving Kansas a run for their money today.
Texas A&M was supposed to compete for a Big 12 title this season, but injuries have prevented that. The Aggies have played the Jayhawks very tough this year, certainly showing what they are capable of. They lost their first meeting at Kansas 54-64 as a 19-point underdog, and lost their second meeting 58-66 at home as a 10-point dog. After holding Kansas to an average of 65 points/game in their first two meetings, I like their chances of staying within 14 points today.
This play falls into a system that is 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (KANSAS) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Jayhawks, not once losing by more than 13 points. Bet Texas A&M Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
Mississippi State -5
A two-point home loss to Georgia on Feb. 11 sent Mississippi State into a 5-game skid. The Miss St. Bulldogs have since recovered with back-to-back wins and they'll be out for some serious revenge against the Georgia Dawgs here. Miss St. is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 neutral court/road games when out for revenge for an upset loss at home. The Miss St. Bulldogs are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. Lay the number.
Dave Price
Louisville +3
The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Marquette won the regular season meeting at home but Louisville is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road/neutral site games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. It has won by an average of 5.4 points in this situation. Take Louisville.
Steve Janus
Chicago Bulls -6
The Chicago Bulls won 106-104 last night in Milwaukee on a last second shot by Derrick Rose, but they were favored by 8-points in that game. I believe the Bulls ATS loss makes them a very strong play against Orlando. Chicago already went on the road and beat up on the Magic 97-83. The Bulls defense really makes it hard for the Magic to get open 3-point shots, which is what they live and die on.
The Bulls should win this game by at least 10-points. They are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games,12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Jimmy Boyd
South Florida +2.5
The Fighting Irish are far too reliant on the three-point shot, and that leaves them very susceptible against a South Florida squad that really gets after it on the defensive end.
The Bulls are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking eighth in points allowed (56.9) and 13th in three-point field goal percentage defense (29.1 percent).
The Bulls have been a terrific investment down the stretch at 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. It is especially worth noting that they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Notre Dame is often overvalued on a neutral floor because its home dominance elevates its numbers. As a result, the Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. We'll take the points.
Sam Martin
Western Michigan at Kent State
Prediction: Kent State
We backed Western Michigan in their 17-point blowout win against Northern Illinois last night, but that game featured WM facing a Huskies team that was in a huge letdown spot and in an offensive slump that heavily favored the favorite. Now they take on a Kent State team that is the dominant team on the floor, and Western Michigan's poor 3-16 SU mark on the road figures to come into play here. WMU in a bad spot here as they are 0-6 against the pointspread on the road after a win by 10 or more points, and we look for Kent State to pull away in the second half to an easy win! 5* Play on Kent State.
Hollywood Sports
Wyoming at UNLV
Play: Wyoming
Wyoming (20-10) are a very dangerous team entering the Mountain West tournament as they hope an upset over UNLV will secure a bid to the NIT postseason tournament -- and then they can see where the chips fall. Said guard Francisco Cruz: I really feel that we can beat anybody in this conference Weve just got to finish the game and we've got to make plays on defense." Don't make the mistake of putting too much weight on the fact that the Runnin' Rebels will be playing on their home court as the host of this tournament. The Cowboys were solid on the road this season with an even steven 0.0 net point differential on their home court. The 9-to-10 points they are getting as an underdog here are quite enticing considering the fact that this team will attempt to slow the pace of this game to Newt Gingrich's self-proclaimed "tortoise" pace. Wyoming averaged 60.2 possessions per game which the fifth slowest rate in the country (as compared to the 66.2 national average). They want this game to stay in the 50s. The Cowboys are also dangerous given their pressure defense that produces steals in 9.6% of their conference opponent's possessions and forces turnovers in 21.9% of their Mountain West opponent's possessions. Those figures were first and second in the conference respectively. UNLV has been known to get clumsy with the basketball as they were 6th in the conference by turning the ball over on 20.0 of their possessions. The last time these teams played was also the last time these two teams took the court with the Runnin' Rebels earning a 74-63 win as a 10.5-point favorite. Will UNLV be just a little complacent in this rematch? As it is, the Runnin' Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win as well as 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. UNLV has failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range, they failed to cover the spread in 5 of these occasions. Look for this game to be much closer than expected. Take Wyoming plus the points in this one.
Teddy Covers
Texas @ Iowa State
PICK: Iowa State
The betting markets are pricing this like it’s a ‘must win’ game for Texas for their NCAA Tournament at-large chances, which it is. That being said, the reason that it’s a ‘must win’ game for the Longhorns is because they haven’t been a particularly good team this year, and they enter the Big 12 tourney on a nasty late season slide. Just because Texas needs this win doesn’t mean they’re going to get it!
Texas closed out the regular season on a 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS slide. One of those wins came in overtime against hapless Texas Tech, not exactly a confidence inspiring victory. The other win came in come-from-behind fashion at home against slumping Oklahoma, another mediocre result. The Longhorns only pointspread cover during this span came in a ten point loss as 12 point underdogs against Kansas. Rick Barnes has an extremely young team, with a combined total of three games of Big 12 tournament experience on the roster. Contrast that with Iowa State, where senior guard Chris Allen has 14 tournament games under his belt by himself!
Iowa State, on the other hand, was an undervalued commodity down the stretch, entering the tourney on an 8-3 SU, 9-1-1 ATS run in their last eleven ballgames. The Cyclones have better balance than Texas, with six different players averaging at least nine points per game, a team that is quite capable of withstanding a poor game from any of their key scorers. Iowa State is the better rebounding team, the better three point shooting team and frankly, the better team overall. That makes the Cyclones a clear choice for this bettor on Thursday Night in Kansas City. Take Iowa State.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +147 over WASHINGTON
Since Alex Ovechkin was drafted first in '05 and won rookie of the year over Sidney Crosby, they have been a guaranteed playoff team and one of the favorite's to win it all. This year has seen them lose more games with this group than they ever have. Remember, this is a Caps squad that isn't use to being this low in the standings in March. They're frustrated and they're not having fun. The replacement of Bruce Bourdeau in favor of Dale Hunter has not been a good one. The Capitals insist they haven't quit but their lack of intensity, heart and desire suggests oitherwise. The word is that Hunter is a “whack-job” and the players don't like playing for him. Caps three wins over their past eight have come against the Islanders in OT and the reeling Canadiens and Leafs. Meanwhile, the Lightning have won four of five to pull within four points of Winnipeg with a game in hand. The Jets are in Vancouver tonight so a win by the Bolts combined with a Jets' loss moves TB within two points with that same game in hand. Until they show us something different, the Capitals are a great fade team right now. Play: Tampa Bay +147 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +140 over PHILADELPHIA
The Flyers are coming off back-to-back wins over Washington and Detroit. Both games were decided by a goal and both games Philly was fortunate to skate away with two points. Against Washington, they won 1-0 but were outshot and outplayed. That 3-2 win over a banged up Red Wings' squad on Tuesday saw practically the entire second and third periods played in Philly's end of the ice. The Flyers had 23 shots on net in both of those wins. They come into this one extremely banged up after two more key players, Jaromir Jagr and Jacob Voracek were injured against Detroit. The Flyers have the Leafs on deck on CBC's Hockey Night in Canada Saturday night followed by a game against the rival Devils on Sunday. This is a hugely vulnerable spot and it's also going to be a difficult assignment because the Panthers remain hungry and motivated. Florida is hanging onto first in the Southeast by two points. They're coming off an inspiring and uplifting 4-2 win over Ottawa in a game they trailed 2-0. The Panthers are healthy, rested and certainly overpriced against a beatable and hugely banged up host. Play: Florida +140 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS +101 over San Jose
The Sharks favored in Dallas? Really? Let's have a close look at that. The Stars have won seven of their past eight. San Jose has dropped nine of 11. Dallas has surged to the division lead while the Sharks have slipped from first to fourth in the division and now they're in jeopardy of missing the playoffs altogether. The Sharks have scored four goals in its last four games while Dallas has allowed two goals or less in eight of 10. The Sharks have also lost six of their past seven road games with only win over that span coming against the free-falling Maple Leafs. Antti Niemi has two wins in his past nine starts. His counterpart, Kari Lehtonen, has gone 5-0-1 with a 1.45 GAA in his last six starts. The Sharks are as fragile as ever while the Stars are playing with confidence and purpose. San Jose favored here is a gross misconception by the marketplace due to San Jose's dominance over Dallas in recent games. That was then, this is now. Play: Dallas +101 (Risking 2 units).
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
4 UNIT PLAY
Marquette -3 over Louisville: (Added) Google News Play. I have had a good pulse on this Marquette team since day 1 of CBB this year and I feel i have a good read on them here. The Golden Eagles lost their very first appearance in the Big East tournament, Marquette has advanced every time but has yet to play for the title.They just may get that chance this year, The Golden Eagles had a bit of a hiccup vs Cincinnati in the 2nd to last game of the year, but they have still won 6 of their last 7 games and by an average of 9.4 ppg. Louisville did beat Seton Hall last night, but they still shot just 38.8% in the game and it marks the 6th time in their last 7 games that they have shot under 40% and in 4 of those games they shot under 35%. That kind of offense won't get it done here vs a strong Marquette attack. The Golden Eagles have revenge on their minds after losing by 25 the Cardinals in last years tournament, they are the much better team here and Louisville just doesn't have enough offense to keep this one close. Marquette will pull away in the second half for the easy win.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Maryland/ Wake Forest Over 137.5: The question here i guess is can Wake score enough for this game to go Over/ I feel they can. Wake does average 65.6 ppg overall and 63.4 ppg away from home, but the Terps have allowed a whopping 75.6 ppg away from home on the year and 74 ppg in their last 10 games overall. The Terps have actually struggled to score of late as they have averaged just 61 ppg in their last 5 games, but Wake has allowed 70 ppg in their last 8 games overall and 71.8 ppg on the road this year. Both teams have played 3 neutral court games and Wake has allowed 74 ppg on 48.8% shooting in their 3 games, while Maryland has allowed 75 ppg on 49.2% shooting in their 3 games. Both teams are decent from longe range and neither team defense the 3-ball away from home. This will not be a slow down game and it will be a game with bad defense. I expect the mid 140's in this one.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Georgetown/ Cincinnati Over 122: I know the defense that is in this game as the Cats have allowed just 61 ppg overall and 57.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Hoyas have allowed 58.7 ppg overall and 59 ppg in their last 5 games, but I still feel that this one will put up around 130 points. Despite the good defensive numbers above, we also note that the Hoya's have allowed 66.6 ppg away from home on the year, while the Cats have allowed 65 ppg when they are not home. Now both teams have really been average on offense of late as the Hoya's have averaged 62.8 ppg in their last 5 while the Cats have averaged 62.2 ppg over that stretch, but we also note that Georgetown has averaged 65 ppg on the road, while Cincy has averaged 65.9 ppg in their road games. Georgetown has played 4 Neutral site games and those games have averaged 141.7 ppg, while their road games have averaged 131.6 ppg. Cincy's road games have averaged 130.9 ppg, while their Big east games have averaged 131.3 ppg. There is defense on the floor, but this will not be a slow down game, plus it shoulfd be a physical game with a lot of fouls and we also may get those bonus FT's at the end as well. I clearly expect the 130's in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in a neutral court game where the total is 129.5 or less, during the 2nd half of the season in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG. THis play is 48-18 the last 5 seasons.
Alabama -9 over South Carolina: (Added) Bama will be looking for some pay back here as they lost to the Gamecocks by 2 points back in January. That first game was at at a time when Bama wasn't playing all that well as they went into that game on a 3 game losing streak, but since that loss they have won 7 of their last 10 games, with 4 of their last 5 wins coming by double digits. Another nice little stat here is the fact that in Alabama's 7 wins away from home (including neutral games) they have won 6 of those by DD and the other one by 9 points. South Carolina has gone just 1-11 since beating Bama and they have gone 0-8 away from home in the SEC, with 6 of those losses coming by 11+points, including their last 4 on the road. The Gamecocks have averaged just 58.1 ppg in their last 9 games and that just won't get it done here vs a Bama team that has allowed just 57.9 ppg on the year. Alabvama is just 1 of two teams to lose to carolina this year and behind a stellar defensive game they should walk out with a solid DD win here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
UConn +7 over Syracuse: Yes payback is in order for the Huskies knocking the orange out of last years Big East tourney, but teams wit the double bye have not been the greatest teams to back in this tourney and UConn is playing really well. I'll ride them for another game, but I think the Cuse still pull it out in the end.
Washington/ Oregon State Over 153: (Added) 175 points in the first meeting and `47 points in the second meeting. These teams don't like a game in the 60's as their uptempo pace would prefer a game in the upper to the 80's.. Both teams will run and gun as this game hits 160+
1 UNIT PLAY
Baylor/ Kansas State Over 135: (Added) The Bears have averaged 74 ppg in their last 4 games, while KSU has averaged 73 ppg over the same stretch. Solid offense will be good defense in this one. Both teams might hit 70 in this one.
NHL Predictions
St Louis Blues -164
The Anaheim Ducks enter tonight’s game with a 29-28-10 record on the season and 11-14-8 road record. The Ducks beat Edmonton 4-2 on Monday, but have lost 3 of their last 5 games. To give Anaheim credit they have been playing a lot better hockey than the start of the season, but their road play is still iffy and will have their hands full tonight with one of the Western Conference’s top teams. The St Louis Blues are 41-18-7 on the season and a stellar 27-4-4 on home ice. The Blues took care of the Blackhawks on Tuesday night with a 5-1 victory, and have won 6 of their last 7 games (with 6 of those games coming on the road). Taking a look back at the Blues recent home losses you will see a trend that they really only seem to drop home games to the elite teams in the NHL and they don’t ever give away wins. The last 4 home losses date all the way back to to December 30th and include losses to Boston (in a game where they out played the Bruins), Pittsburgh in shootout, Vancouver in overtime, and Nashville in shootout. St Louis goalie Jaroslav Halak has won 5 straight starts, where he has allowed just 9 goals against. These two teams have met twice this season, each team winning 4-2 on home ice. The most recent was a 4-2 St Louis victory in December. The Ducks are just 6-21 in their last 27 games as a road underdog, and 6-18 in their last 24 vs a team with a winning record. The Blues are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200, and are 36-15 in their last 51 games as a favorite. The Ducks have lost four straight meetings in St Louis and tonight should make for a fifth as the Blues will be too much to handle for this non-playoff Ducks team.