Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday May, 10

Marc Lawrence

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles and Rangers wrap up a three game series when Baltimore sends Jason Hammel to the hill against Derek Holland at Camden Yards Thursday evening. Hammel takes the mound in great KW form with 30 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last four starts knowing he is 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA at home with Baltimore this campaign. On the flip side Holland enters with a 5.76 ERA in his last three starts sporting a 3-6 mark in his last nine road team starts during the month of May. Stay at home with the better arm as a dog here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

Sam Martin

Lakers at Nuggets
Prediction: Under

We backed the Under in both games of this series played here in Denver, and while tonight's line has dropped considerably since those two contests (Game 3 total was 205, Game 4 total was 202.5), we still think there is plenty of line value with the Under here. Denver has made an extra effort defensively here against the Lakers, playing well under their normally fast-paced scoring average of 204.5 ppg this season (average points for and against). Nuggets are 21-11 Under as a home favorite and even better 13-3 Under at home after an Over. Defense rules tonight as this series moves to 3-0 Under in Denver.

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees fit a nice system that pertains to home favorites off a home favored loss by 2 or more runs if they had 5+ hits and 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog win that scored 4 or less runs on 5 or more hits and left 10 or more men on base in a game where they made no more than one error. This system has cashed 17 of 22 times the last 9 years. The Yankees spit the bit last night as new closer D. Robertson blew the game allowing 4 runs in the 9th inning. Tonight the Yanks counter with CC. Sabathia. In his starts he is 5-1 with a 2.94 Era. Even with last nights blow up the Yankees still have a solid bullpen era under 2 at home. Tampa has D. Price on the mound and he has a 4.20 road era and following him is a Tampa bullpen that has a 8.41 road bullpen era. Tampa is 1-5 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and the Yankees have won 8 of 12 vs winning teams. Look for New York to bounce back tonight.

Ben Burns

Rays @ Yankees
PICK: Under

We eked out a winner with yesterday's free play on the "under" in the Pittsburgh/Washington game. As that contest did, today's game features a pair of southpaw starters. Once again, each are in excellent form.

Sabathia allowed two runs through eight complete innings in his last start. He did the same in his previous start. He's 4-0 on the season and has 43 Ks (with only 9 walks) in 43 innings. At home, he's 2-0 with 2.94 ERA and an outstanding 0.718 WHIP.

Price has arguably been even better. He's 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.122 WHIP on the season. He's striking out nearly a batter per inning and has only allowed one home run all year. Over his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a superb 1.16 ERA and 0.729 WHIP. In those three starts, he has allowed zero home runs while posting 21 Ks vs. only three walks.

These same two pitchers squared off against each other last August. That game had an O/U line of eight and finished with a score of 5-1. I won't be surprised if this one also proves relatively low-scoring. Assuming the line stays at eight, consider the "under." (No play if line goes to 7.5.)

David Chan

Rays @ Yankees
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number:

David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) is set to square off against big CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA) on the mound Thursday night.

Price has been dominant this season, and there's no reason to think he won't be bringing his "A" game to the "Big Apple" in the middle game of this three game set. He struck out 12 batters over eight frames in Friday's 7-2 win over Oakland. In all, Price gave up just a single run, scattered three hits and issued one walk in the victory.

So while past success guarantees nothing in the future, Price can throw with the added confidence in knowing that he's already beaten the Yanks this year, giving up two runs over 6 1/3's frames of work (also note that he's a very respectable 5-2 with a 3.96 ERA lifetime vs. them).

For a third straight start Sabathia went eight frames in his team's 6-2 win over the Royals on Friday. So far in his 43 1/3's innings of work, he's struck out 43 batters.

Sabathia will be extra motivated here against a Rays team that roughed him up for five earned runs over six frames of work earlier in the season (note though: Sabathia owns a 9-7 record and a 3.25 ERA lifetime vs. Tampa Bay).

This one has "pitchers duel" written all over it!

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins

The Twins are terrible, but I'm just not all that sold on Henderson Alvarez and I don't trust the Toronto bullpen. Jason Marquis is close to Alvarez in the metric breakdown, and the number seems too high. Value looks to be on the Twins at a decent home dog price.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Cleveland Indians

Derek Lowe and his sinker returns to Fenway park and the Red Sox, where he won his only World Series. He's been a terrific addition for the Indians with a 4-1 record and a 2.39 ERA. The Indians are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Struggling last place Boston has Josh Beckett, who is back after missing time with a shoulder problem, not a good sign. Pitchers who miss time are often worth a shot going against that first game back. The team is just 2-3 in his 5 starts. Play the Indians.

SPORTS WAGERS

DENVER -1½ over L.A. Lakers

The Lakers blew a big opportunity to close this thing out in Los Angeles last game and now this aging club has the enviable task of trying to close it out on the road. The more the Lakers travel to and from L.A. to the mile high city, the better it is for Denver. The Nuggets are younger, fresher and very used to playing in the high altitude. After that win in L.A., Denver’s confidence should be soaring and suddenly, JaVale McGee has emerged as a significant factor. The Lakers have a size advantage and they have Kobe Bryant but Denver’s bench is significantly stronger, as it has shown in every game of this series. Prior to game five, the Nuggets were not shooting well. That also changed last game and if they can even come close to matching their shooting percentage they posted last game or for the entire season, they’re very likely to force a game seven. Play Denver -1½ -107 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Pass MLB

MLB Predictions

Texas Rangers -123 GM 1

The Texas Rangers will look to lock up this 4 game series against the Orioles by winning tonight's game. This one follows a historic night where Josh Hamilton went 5 for 5 including 4 home runs for 18 total bases - an unbelievable performance. Texas is now 20-10 on the season, and 12-5 away from home. The Orioles are still an impressive 19-11 on the season and 8-6 at home. Texas has won 7 straight meetings between these two clubs and are looking for #8 tonight behind Colby Lewis. Lewis is 3-1 on the season with a 2.97 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .267 opponents batting average. Lewis started the season with 5 straight quality starts before being roughed up a little in his last start at Cleveland (10 hits and 6 earned runs over 6.2 innings). Take away that last starts and Lewis has been stellar. Rookie southpaw Wei-Yin Chen takes the mound for the Orioles tonight. He is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average. Take note that the Rangers are hitting .308 against lefties with a .364 OBP. In comparison the Orioles are hitting .243 against righties with a .303 OBP. I look for Colby Lewis to return to his form and out pitch Chen who is facing a Texas team who has scored 24 runs in the past two nights and are averaging 5.67 runs per game. Take the Rangers.

MATT RIVERS

Your comp play winner on Thursday will be to back the Lakers on the road as the small underdog as they take on the Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers were stunned at home on Tuesday night, losing outright as the 5 1/2-point chalk. Kobe Bryant went off for 43 points in the loss, but Los Angeles worked that game from the "outside in", instead of from the "inside out" where they have had their best success against the smaller Nuggets.

Look for Los Angeles to get back to basics, and look for Andrew Bynum to keep his mouth shut and play basketball in this contest.

The underdog has been the straight up winner in the last pair of games in this series, and has covered in three of the last four games overall after a Los Angeles blowout in Game One.

With the ultimate chess-piece on the floor in Kobe Bryant, I will back the Lakers to grit out a tight win in Game Six and finally end this series as Los Angeles moves on to face Oklahoma City in the West semifinals.

2♦ L.A. LAKERS

David Banks

Denver Nuggets -1.5

It is rather surprising that there is a sixth game in this series between the Los Angeles Lakers (44-27, 30-41 ATS) and the Denver Nuggets (40-31, 39-32 ATS). The Lakers appeared to take control with a road win in Game 4 and few people expected them to lose at home in a close-out spot in Game 5. Instead, Los Angeles came out unexpectedly flat and did not really play with any sense of urgency until the final minutes, when their nice comeback fell short in a 102-99 defeat. So here we are for Game 6 from the Pepsi Center in Denver, CO on Thursday night at 10:30 ET on TNT, where the Lakers will attempt to win in the altitude for the second time in this series in an attempt to avoid a winner-take-all in Game 7, a situation that LA has not been accustomed too in the first round of the playoffs in recent years.

The Lakers have only themselves to blame, and center Andrew Bynum did not help matters any when he was quote as saying NBA Playoff close-out games were "actually kind of easy", an implication that the opponents generally quit in this spot on the road unless it is a Game 7. Well, the Lakers discovered just how "easy" it was when they got down by six points at halftime, by 11 points after three quarters and by 15 points midway through the fourth quarter. It was at that point that Kobe Bryant, who finished with 43 points, went on a scoring barrage that saw him hit four three-pointers in the final 4:45 of regulation time, the last one of which trimmed the Denver lead to 98-96 with 1:00 left. Then another three-pointer by Ramon Sessions trimmed the lead to 100-99 with 12 seconds left, but that was the end of the Lakers' scoring. Yes, Bynum's comment no doubt motivated the Nuggets, but that is still no excuse for the Lakers' lifeless performance through three and one-half quarters, as they seemed almost disinterested at times and ended up shooting just 38.9 percent for the game despite Kobe hitting almost every shot down the stretch. Just about the only positive to come out of the game for Los Angeles is that it got 19 bench points, albeit from two players as Matt Barnes scored 11 points and Steve Blake added eight. They will probably need at least a similar performance from the bench in the Denver altitude with the starters needing some rest, a situation that could have and probably should have been avoided if the Lake Show would have held serve at home.

Of course, you cannot underestimate the Nuggets' performance either, as they indeed played like a team that is not ready to pack its bags despite playing in hostile territory. The one edge that Denver has in this series over the Lakers is a far superior bench, and indeed its two leading scorers in Game 5 came off the pine as Andre Miller poured in 24 points and JaVale McGee had the game of his life with 21 points and 14 rebounds. All tolled the Denver starters had 52 points and the backups had 50 points! The Nuggets were able to run the Lakers out of the Pepsi Center in Game 3 because of that depth, although Los Angeles was able to combat the altitude in Game 4 with the bench providing 26 points in a 92-88 win. As usual in games played in this building, the play of that Laker bench should determine whether or not there will be a Game 7. as it is a given that the Denver depth is enough to neutralize Bryant if he has to try and win this game on his own.

One interesting takeaway from this series is that both games in Denver stayed easily 'under' the total, bringing the 'under' to a lucrative 13-3 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these teams in Colorado.

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics -6.5

My money is on the Celtics to cover the 6.5-point spread posted for Game 6. A lot of people will look at the Hawks win in Game 5 as a sign that they will cover tonight. I don't think that's the case at all.

While the Hawks were able to keep their season alive, it came at a price. Al Horford, Joe Johnson, Jeff Teague, and Josh Smith all logged over 40 minutes and Marvin Williams was out there for 35 minutes. It's not easy coming back from a regular season game after you log that many minutes. I really think it will take it's tole on Horford and Smith. Horford has only played two games since returning from injury and Smith has been bothered by a sore knee.

If the Hawks thought it was hard to score on the Celtics defense, those tired legs are going to make it that much harder for them to hit their jump shots. It could also limit the level of intensity in which the Hawks play defense. I look for Boston to take control early and end up winning this game by 10-12 points.

Jack Jones

Tigers/A's OVER 7

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in the Detroit vs. Oakland Game 1 Thursday. These starting pitchers are getting way too much respect in this one. I expect to see at least 8 combined runs by the time both Max Scherzer and Bartolo Colon depart.

Scherzer just hasn't lived up to the hype since coming over to Detroit. The righty is coming off a poor 2011 campaign in which he posted a 4.43 ERA and 1.349 WHIP through 33 starts. Scherzer hasn't been any better in 2012, going 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.723 WHIP through six starts.

Bartolo Colon has actually pitched very well on the road this season. The veteran has proven he still has something left in the tank, but he has not fared well at home this year. Colon is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two home starts in 2012, yielding 9 earned runs and 20 base runners over 11 1/3 innings.

Neither of these starters has had that much success against the opposition. Colon is 8-9 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.581 WHIP in 23 career starts against Detroit. Scherzer is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in two career starts against the A's. Scherzer gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start at Oakland.

Detroit is 20-8 to the OVER after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The A's are 27-8 to the OVER in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 8-1 in Tigers last 9 games following a loss. The OVER is 7-0-1 in Scherzer's last 8 starts vs. American League West foes. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

Jimmy Boyd

Oakland A's +110

The Tigers have yet to play to their potential, and they are up against an Oakland club that has been better than expected so far. The A's have one more win than Detroit on the season and enter this contest in better form with 5 wins in their last 7 games. The Tigers are just 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit's Max Scherzer is off to a rough start. He's 1-3 with an ERA of 6.32 thus far. The Tigers have dropped each of his last 3 starts, and they are also 0-4 in his last 4 series-opening starts and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland's Bartolo Colin is 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA out of the gate. He has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 5 starts. We'll take the A's showing value in the home dog role tonight.