Teddy Covers
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Under 9 Game 1
Bettors spent all kinds of time breaking down starting pitching matchups. We spend hours looking at how opposing lineups match up against these starters. But when it comes to valuing bullpens correctly, bettors tend to come up short. That gives us a prime opportunity to step in with an ‘Under’ bet in game 1 of today’s doubleheader as the Rangers and Orioles battle in Baltimore.
Both starters here are absolutely trustworthy. Baltimore’s Wei-Yin Chen has lived up to all expectations, holding opposing batters to a combined total of nine earned runs in his first five major league starts. He’s already faced some truly potent lineups (the Yankees and Red Sox, for example), coming away with solid performances. He’s got a 2.13 ERA at Camden Yards; a ‘bet-on’ hurler right now.
The Rangers Colby Lewis has been every bit as good as Chen, holding foes to a combined total of seven earned runs in his first five starts before a rough outing last time out at Cleveland. Like Chen, Lewis has enjoyed success even against top notch lineups, shutting down the Tigers and Red Sox on the road, throwing seven full innings each time.
But the real key here is the two bullpens behind the starters. Baltimore and Texas rank #1-2 in the majors in bullpen ERA this season, allowing a combined 40 earned runs in 181 innings of work – these relievers slam the door shut in the latter stages of nearly every ballgame they’re in. Don’t expect another four home run night from Josh Hamilton this afternoon, in what should be a relatively low scoring ballgame. Take the Under.
Vegas Experts
Detroit at Seattle
Play: Under
Two good pitchers square off tonight as Drew Smyly enters this contest with a 1.61 ERA on the season, and even better he owns a 2-0 TSR on the road with a 0.75 earned run average. Vargas for Seattle has also been very good, including a fine 1.35 ERA over his two home starts. We look for pitchers to dominate here against struggling offenses. Detroit is hitting just .239 on the road this year while Seattle is even worse here at home, hitting just .209 as a team.
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta at Boston
Pick: Under 173.5
The Boston Celtics came within one point of closing out this series in five games, but the Hawks prevailed at home to live for a Game 6 at the Garden. These teams have played slow, and ugly in this entire series. The defenses have ruled the first five games. With Boston at home, where they are always tough on the defensive end, and with Atlanta once again facing elimination, I expect the intensity level to go up a notch in Game 6. Atlanta has managed just 82.6 points per game including overtime points, so they will likely struggle to find 80 points here in Boston. The Celtics have topped the 80-point mark just one time in the five games without overtime, so this one looks like 160s or less. The Hawks are now 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 quarterfinals playoffs games, and Boston is on equal ground at 8-2 to the UNDER as a playoffs favorite in their last 10. Play this one UNDER the total.
Charlies Sports
Toronto Blue Jays-150
Thursday May 10, 2012. The (17-14) Toronto Blue Jays of the MLB American League East division will take on the (8-22) Minnesota Twins of the American League Central division in 2012 MLB action. The Angels will send Right handed Henderson Alvarez, who is (2-2) with a 2.83 era this season to the pitchers mound vs. Right Handed Jason Marquis (2-1) with a 5.40 era. The Blue Jays have won the last 6 of the last 7 between the teams, dating back to last season. Blue Jays gets the road win-150.
John Ryan
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles GM 2
10* graded play on the Baltimore Orioles as they take on the Texas Rangers in the second game of a double header set to start around 7:30.
The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game and complete a shocking sweep of this double header. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 82-38 for 68.3% winners and has made 53.3 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on AL home teams that are struggling hitting teams batting .260 or worse and with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. and now facing a solid starting pitcher posting an ERA between 4.20 to 4.70.
Initially, this matchup against Derek Holland looks like a mismatch. I assure you it is not. Holland has posted a 2-2 mark with a 4.43 ERA. His command of his pitches has been suspect at various times during his starts. His last three starts have produced a 5.76 ERA and a 1.576 WHIP with 23 hits and nine walks in 20 ⅓ innings of work.
Hunter is being recalled from the minors to make this start and will remain with the team given Jason Hammels knee injury. he was sent down to work on his arm angle and hand slot regarding his curve and changeup pitches. When he has been hit, it has been because of a dropped arm angle, which makes the pitches flatten out entering the strike zone.
Tommy Hunter has been far more consistent. He has posted a 5.00 ERA with a 1.417 WHIP spanning six starts. he has allowed six home runs on the season, but has allowed one each in his last three starts. The home run problem is that he is not staying on top of his curve and it flattens out instead of diving down hard and away from right handed batters.
He throws this pitch a near equal time to both righ and left-handed batters and represents 18% of all pitches thrown. Batters are hitting just .207 on the curve and as mentioned when he gets it up in the zone, MLB caliber hitters will hit that pitch very hard. i am confident that he will have fixed this fundamental flaw and will also pitch ahead in the count.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays +135
Siding with Price over Sabathia in this battle of aces considering the Rays have won 8 of their last 9 versus New York and are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings when Price faces Sabathia. Both southpaws have great records but Price's 2.35 ERA is nearly 2 runs lower than Sabathia's 4.15. Take Tampa Bay at an excellent price.
Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals -158
Washington has the edge on the hill with Strasburg, who is 2-0 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 0.842. He's been at his best in 3 road starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 0.90 and a WHIP of 0.800. Pittsburgh's Correia, meanwhile, is 1-2 (2-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.125. He's been at his worth at home as evidenced by his 4.85 home ERA. The Pirates are just 2-7 in Correia's last 9 starts and 1-6 in his last 7 home starts. The Nationals are 6-1 in Strasburg's last 7 starts and 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a road favorite. We'll take the Nats.
Lenny Del Genio
Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are not playing up to their advanced billing, checking in at .500 through 30 games following last night's 2-1 loss in Seattle. They stay out West for the weekend, moving down the coast to Oakland where they'll find an A's team that's won five of seven. Recent results aside, we feel this is GREAT value on the road team here as Oakland is only hitting .215 as a team and averaging just 3.2 runs per game at home. A light hitting opponent is just what Detroit needs right now. Though the team lost, Max Scherzer turned in his best start of the year last time out, going seven full innings against the White Sox and allowing just one earned run. Athletics starter Bartolo Colon is beginning to come back down to Earth following a hot start as he allowed three home runs last time out and has an 0-7 team start record following a start where he allowed multiple home runs.